Brian Wernham - Agile Governance and Chaos Theory - Association for Project Management Governance SIG May 14, 2014

5/26/2018 Brian Wernham - Agile Governance and Chaos Theory - Association for Project Management Governance SIG May 14, 2014

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Brian Wernham

Chaos: a new perspective on Agilegovernance

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Why are YOU here today?

http://bit.ly/About-Brian@BrianUkulele

What is

Agile?Agile only for

web

development?

Agile only for

tiny stuff?

Agile = loss of

control?

What is

DSDM?

Agile in

mission critical

projects?

2

What is

Scrum?

Are we talking

Governance of a project

of Governance of

portfolios of change?


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This talk:

1. What is Agile?

2. What is Agile Governance?

3. Can we be ready for & take advantage of

the unexpected?

- Chaos Theory & Emergent Complexity

4. Kick-off the development of a guide for

Agile Governance


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1. What is Agile?

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The Big Design Up Front

mind-set


I had betterask for allpossiblef tur s

At last a chanceto get what Iwant

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The Big Design Up Front is born


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The result of Big Design Up

Front

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Doh!


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As difficult as trying to swim up a

waterfall


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Scrum at the team leveltwo

popular methods

Scrum

DSDM

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1. Scrum a team level approach

http://bit.ly/About-Brian

Source: Mike Cohn www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/scrum
http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/scrumhttp://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/scrum


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15Source: DSDM Consortium (DSDM = Driving Strategy, Delivering More)

An overview of two agile methods2. DSDM a hybrid team/project level approach


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2. What is Agile Governance?

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a) Time Driven

I dont want it perfect I want it Thursday

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Traditional Agile

Agile inverts the normal projectmanagement paradigm


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b) and minimises Work in Progress

There is no value in holding stock in a warehouse

Traditional Agile

Design

Build

Test

Deploy

P/type

?

P/type

P/type

P/type

Agile focuses on flow


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Can we define Agile Governance

principles at several levels:

Project Level?

Governance of one specific project?

Scrum? DSDM?

Programme Level? Governance of hybrid programmes that comprises both:

Waterfall projects

& Agile projects?

Portfolio Level? Governance across many projects?

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Is Agile Governance really about

being adaptable?

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Traditional

Project

Innovation

projectHybrid

Programme

Design

Build

Test

Deploy

P/type

P/type

P/type

P/type

Control-freak

Governance

Agile

Governance

Arms-length

Governance

Innovation

Project

InnovationProject

Traditional

Project

Traditional

Project


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3. Can we be ready for & take

advantage of the unexpected?

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A brief overview of the practical impact of Chaos Theory

Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial conditions)

How long is a piece of string? (Fractals)

Satisficing a business case (Alternative stable states)

Complex outcomes from simple systems

Self-organisation

Ants

People (so very different?)


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Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial

conditions)

For want of a nail the shoe was lost

For want of a shoe the horse was lost

For want of a horse the battle was lost

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Heat convectionany difference in

initial conditions produces an

unpredicatble outcome after a

while:

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Increase the feedback and the

Lorenz equation becomes unstable

and chaotic:

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Complexity out of simplicity

e.g. the Lorenz Equation

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Butterfly effect (Sensitivity to initial

conditions)

For want of a nail the shoe was lost

For want of a shoe the horse was lost

For want of a horse the battle was lost

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No two snowflakes are the same

A simple fractal - The Koch Curve

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No two snowflakes are the same

A simple fractal - The Koch Curve

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How long is a piece of string?

(Fractals)

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Ruler length = x

Answer = y

Ruler length x/2

Answer = y*2.5


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The result runs away from you the

closer you try to measure it

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The fractal dimension measures

this disappearing event horizon

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How long will it take to add just a

bit more detail to a business case

or spec?

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Alternative stable states

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Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems

Marten Scheffer, Nature, 2001


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Self-organisation - Ants

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Self-organisation - Ants

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Self-organisation - People

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References

Daa, Josef

Chaos Theory in Project Management, Masaryk University, Brno

2014

Christopher, Martin

TheAgile Supply Chain : Competing in Volatile Markets, IndustrialMarketing Management, Vol 29., No. 1., 2000, pp. 37-44

Yang, C

Hierarchical Summarization of Large Documents, Drexel University

Scheffer, Marten

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems, Nature, 2001

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4. Kick-off the development of a

guide for Agile Governance

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[email protected]

Blog: brianwernham.wordpress.com

@BrianUkulele

http://bit.ly/About-Brian

Thanks for listening!

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