BRIC NATIONS

BRAZIL, RUSSIA, CHINA AND INDIA FORM THE SO-CALLED BRIC GROUP OF EMERGING POWERS.

THE TERM BRIC WAS COINED BY U.S. INVESTMENT BANK, GOLDMAN SACHS, IN 2001.

BRIC HAS GAINED CLOUT ON THE GLOBAL STAGE IN THE PAST DECADE AS THEIR ECONOMIES GREW FASTER

THAN THOSE OF THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES.

IN 2008, BRIC ACCOUNTED FOR 22% OF WORLD ECONOMY, UP FROM 16% A DECADE EARLIER.

Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS

GDP OF BRIC COUNTRIES

GDP(PPP, IN TRILLIONS)

1.1 0.9231.3

2.52.0

2.3

3.3

7.9

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

BRAZIL RUSSIA INDIA CHINA

1998 2008

Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS

BRAZIL

• SIZE 8.5 M SQ. KMS

• POPULATION 190 MILLION

• POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)2001 46.7%2008 30.3%CHANGE 16.4%

AGRICULTURAL AND MINING POWERHOUSE.

EXPECTED TO BECOME MAJOR WORLD PLAYER IN WORLD

ENERGY MARKET, HAVING FOUND HUGE DEEP-SEA OIL RESERVES.

POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)

46.7

30.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2001

2008

Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS

RUSSIA

• SIZE 17M SQ. KMS

• POPULATION 143 MILLION

• POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)2001 27.5%2008 13.0%CHANGE 14.5%

POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)

27.5

13

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2001

2008

WORLD’S SECOND LARGEST OIL EXPORTER, BUT FALL IN OIL

PRICES COULD TRIGGER WORST RECESSION IN AT LEAST A

DECADE, CONTRACTING GDP BY AN EXPECTED 6% IN 2009.

Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS

INDIA

• SIZE 3.3M SQ. KMS

• POPULATION 1100 MILLION

• POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)2001 27.5%2008 21.8.0%CHANGE 5.7%

POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)

27.5

21.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2001

2008

VAST DOMESTIC MARKET PUTS IT ON THE TRACK FOR GROWTH

THIS YEAR. FACES POTENTIAL TROUBLE FROM DOMESTIC MILITANT

GROUPS AND A LONG RUNNING BORDER DISPUTE WITH PAKISTAN.

Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS

CHINA• SIZE 9.6M SQ. KMS

• POPULATION 1300 MILLION

• POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)

2001 16%

2008 4%

CHANGE 12%

POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)

16

4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2001

2008

A GLOBAL MANUFACTURING HUB, HELD $727 BILLION IN U.S.

TREASURIES AT YEAR-END 2008. ESTIMATED TWO-THIRDS OF

ITS ROUGHLY $2 TRILLION IN FOREIGN RESERVES PARKED IN

DOLLAR ASSETS.

Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS

Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS

Contrary to common conceptions that emerging markets have fairly small, illiquid and volatile financial markets, Brazil actually has a larger market than Australia.

On a purchasing power parity basis, Russia’s GDP is larger than the UK’s; China’s is larger than Japan’s and India’s is larger than Germany’s.

With 4% growth, India is. performing well not just in textiles and cheap electronics but in shipbuilding, chemicals, steel and communications as well

The Chinese automobile market has already surpassed the US market, whereas only 3 years ago, it was at 50%.

Brazil Russia India China

INDIA – WORLD’S

FIRST SOFT SUPERPOWER

U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE, HILLARY CLINTON, MADE THE FOLLOWING COMMENTS:

• “ I CONSIDER INDIA NOT JUST A REGIONAL POWER BUT A GLOBAL POWER. ”

• “ INDIA IS POISED FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND GLOBAL PEACE. IT IS POISED TO BECOME A MORE POWERFUL NATION. ”

Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS

“W’ SHAPED RECESSION

THIS IS BASED ON THE FACTTHAT THE GOVERNMENTS WHOHAVE PUMPED SO MUCH MONEYINTO THEIR FINANCIAL SYSTEMSCANNOT LAST LONG ENOUGHTILL THE SIGNS OF ECONOMICRECOVERY AND THEIR TIMING TO ADJUST THESE FISCALPACKAGES WITH THE ECONOMICRISE IS A TRICKY QUESTION FORTHEM AS THE GLOBALISATION OFMONEY AND ITS IMPACT AFFECTS US ALL WORLDWIDE.

THE GREAT RECESSION IS MOVING MORE

TOWARDS A “W” AND NOT A “V” OR “U” SHAPE.

Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS

In ancient Greece (469 - 399 BC), Socrates was widely lauded for his wisdom.       One day the great philosopher came upon an acquaintance who ran up to him excitedly and said, "Socrates, do you know what I just heard about one of your students?"     Wait a moment," Socrates replied. "Before you tell me I'd like you to pass a little test. It's called the Triple Filter Test."       "Triple filter?“    

"That's right," Socrates continued. "Before you talk to me about my student let's take a moment to filter what you're going to say. The first filter is Truth. Have you made absolutely sure that what you are about to tell me is true?“

"No," the man said, "actually I just heard about it and..." 

Gossip Slide 1 of 2

Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS

Gossip Slide 2 of 2

  "All right," said Socrates. "So you don't really know if it's true or not. Now let's try the second filter, the filter of Goodness. Is what you are about to tell me about my student something good?""No, on the contrary..."     "So," Socrates continued, "you want to tell me something bad about him, even though you're not certain it's true?"     The man shrugged, a little embarrassed.       Socrates continued. "You may still pass the test though, because there is a third filter - the filter of Usefulness. Is what you want to tell me about my student going to be useful to me?"     "No, not really..."       "Well," concluded Socrates, "if what you want to tell me is neither True nor Good nor even Useful, why tell it to me at all?" …..   This is the reason Socrates was a great philosopher and held in such high esteem.  

Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS

Q & A Session

Prof. Hersh ChadhaOPM (Harvard) ARPS

hersh@eim.ae

ww.hershchadha.com