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    Bridging' the' gap' between' resource' use'and'Planetary'Boundaries'

    Joint! European! Master! in! Management! and! Engineering! of!

    Environment!and!Energy!!

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    Jonas!Colen!Ladeia!Torrens!

    Master!Thesis!presented!in!2!July!2013!!

    Company!Supervisor:!Sarah!Cornell!

    Supervisor:!Ángel!Uruburu!Colsa! !

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    Index'note'' Report!Title! Bridging! the! gap! between! resource! use! and! Planetary!

    Boundaries!

    Curriculum! European! Joint!Masters! in!Management! and! Engineering!

    of!Environment!and!Energy!

    Placement!Title! Project!Assistant!

    Year! 2013!

    Author! Jonas!Colen!Ladeia!Torrens!

    Company! Stockholm!Resilience!Centre!

    Number!of!Employees! 46!staff,!80!researchers!and!22!PhD!students!

    Address! Stockholm! University,! Kräftriket! 2B,! 11412! Stockholm!

    Sweden!

    Contact! Phone:!+46!8!674!70!70!

    ! EVmail:!info@stockholmresilience.su.se! ! !

    Company!Tutor! Dr.!Sarah!Cornell!

    Function/Position! Coordinator,!Planetary!Boundaries!Research!Initiative!

    School!tutor! Ángel!Uruburu!Colsa!

    Function/Position! Professor,!Departamento! de! ingeniería! de! organización,!

    administración!de!empresas!y!estadística.!Escuela!superior!

    de! ingenieros! industriales,! Universidad! Politécnica! de!

    Madrid!

    Keywords! Planetary! Boundaries,! Integrated! Resource! Management,!

    Sustainability!

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    Abstract' Impacts!of!human!agency!have!become!a!major!driver! in! the!Earth!System,! with! magnitude! comparable! to! that! of! natural! occurring! global! processes.!

    Several!earth!system!processes!are!under!substantial!pressure.!!These!human! induced! pressures! are! likely! to! increase,! potentially! leading! to! undesirable!

    changes!at!planetary!scale.!In!that!context,!the!Planetary!Boundaries!concept! has!been!put!forward!aiming!at!defining!a!“safe!operating!space”!for! future!

    endurance! of! humanity:! relevant! processes! were! identified! with! associated!

    boundaries!that,! if!respected,!would!avoid!largeVscale!or!irreversible!change.! The! present! study! explores! how! human! driven! resource! use! relates! to! the!

    Planetary! Boundaries! concept,! through! a! waterVfoodVenergyVclimate! nexus! perspective.! It! aims! at! identifying! alternatives! for! the! consideration! of!

    biophysical! constraints! in! ways! resources! are! modelled,! and! it! presents! an! account!of!the!current!elements!that!hinder!the!integration!of!new!constraints.!

    The!study!found!that!existing!Integrated!Assessment!Models!and!conceptual!

    models! for! exploring! ClimateVLandVEnergyVWater! Strategies! present! important! contributions,! but! further! integration! is! necessary.! Furthermore,!

    decisionVmaking! support! tools! in! these! models! were! designed! to! assess! mitigation!options!for!climate,!but!cannot!yet!be!used!for!multiVgoal!or!multiV

    constraints! studies.!Scenario! studies!were! found! to!be!an! important!and!yet!

    underappreciated! tool! for! such! integration.! The! study! identified! novel! techniques! for! scenario! construction! that! could! be! applied! in! this! context! –!

    they!can!allow!the!construction!of!sets!of!scenarios!to!bridge!across!scales!or! to! connect! separate! modelling! communities.! The! study! suggests! that! for!

    bridging! the! current! gaps! that! exist! between! concepts! it! is! necessary! to! develop! an! active! interface! across! research! communities! involved! in! global!

    change!research,!integrated!assessment!and!resource!modelling!communities.!

    These!interfaces!need!to!allow!the!coVdevelopment!of!concepts,!the!sharing!of! data!and!the!confrontation!of!different!perspectives!on!the!shared!challenge!of!

    exploring!potential!pathways!for!sustainability.!!

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    '

    “Many&plans,&programs,&and&agreements,&particularly&complex& international&ones,&are&based&upon&assumptions&about&the&world&

    that&are&either&mutually&inconsistent&or&inconsistent&with& physical&reality.&Much&time&is&spend&designing&and&debating&

    policies&that&are,&in&fact,&simply&impossible.”&& (Donella!Meadows!et!al.!1982,!p.xix)&

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    Presentation'of'the'Stockholm'Resilience'Centre' The!current!master!thesis!was!hosted!at!the!Stockholm!Resilience!Centre!(SRC).!The!

    centre!is!a!transdisciplinary!research!centre!that!focus!on!advancing!research!on!the!

    governance! of! socialVecological! systems!with! a! special! emphasis! on! resilience! V! the!

    ability!to!deal!with!change!and!continue!to!develop!(SRC!2013a).!

    The! centre!was! created! in! 2007,! as! a! joint! initiative!between!Stockholm!University,!

    the! Stockholm! Environment! Institute! (SEI)! and! the! Beijer! International! Institute! of!

    Ecological!Economics!at!The!Royal!Swedish!Academy!of!Sciences.!Since!then,!it!has!

    become!a!leading!institution!in!its!field,!with!high!impact!academic!publications!and!

    important! scienceVpolicy! work.! SRC’s! researchers! have! published! more! than! 525!

    publications,!in!a!150!journals,!with!about!30%!of!the!centre’s!publications!among!the!

    top!10%!most!cited!in!their!fields!(SRC!2012).!

    The!centre’s!ethos!is!marked!by!a!strong!collaborative!environment,!an!international!

    and!diverse!group!of!researchers,!and!by!a!network!of!collaborators!that!spans!across!

    the! globe! (Figure! 1).! The! SRC! often! hosts! international! events,! and! visitors! are! a!

    common!sight!around!its!corridors.!The!centre!contributes!directly!to!a!large!number!

    of!international!research!programs,!including!the!recently!created!Future!Earth,&‘a&10? year& international& research& initiative& that& will& develop& the& knowledge& for& responding& effectively&to&the&risks&and&opportunities&of&global&environmental&change&and&for&supporting& transformation&towards&global&sustainability&in&the&coming&decades’!(ICSU!2012).!!

    ! Figure'1'International'collaborators'of'the'SRC.' The' SRC' has' global' network' of' collaborators,' including' 18' MoUs' (Memorandums' of' Understanding),'38'agreements'and'45'other'collaborators'(SRC!2012)'

  • ! vi!

    The! centre! hosted! a! workshop! in! 2008! V! together! with! the! SEI! and! the! Tällberg!

    Foundation!V!a!workshop!that!united!28!renowned!scientists!and!that!culminated!in!

    the!development!of!the!Planetary!Boundaries!concept!(Rockström!et!al.!2009b).!Since!

    then,!this!concept!has!been!gaining!prominence!in!both!the!science!and!policy!arenas.!

    It!has!also!spurred!an!intense!debate!in!the!global!change!research!community.!

    The!present!study!was!undertaken!in!the!Planetary!Boundaries!research!initiative,!a!

    joint! activity! with! the! Australian! National! University! and! the! University! of!

    Copenhagen,! which! is! hosted! at! the! SRC.! The! project! was! conducted! amid! the!

    formation! of! the! Planetary! Boundaries! research! network! that! counts! with! the!

    collaboration! of! SRC,! SEI,! University! of! Copenhagen,! Netherlands! Environmental!

    Assessment! Agency! (PBL)! and! the! Potsdam! Institute! of! Climate! Impact! research!

    (PIK).! Together,! these! two! programs! are! at! the! core! of! the! research! surrounding!

    Planetary! Boundaries,! and! cover! aspects! related! to! modelling,! governance! and!

    conceptual!developments.!

    The!present!study!also!counted!with!a!close!cooperation!from!the!Division!of!Energy!

    Systems!Analysis!at!the!Royal!Institute!of!Technology,!which!is!at!the!forefront!of!the!

    development!of!ClimateVLandVEnergyVWaterVStrategies!(CLEWs),!a!novel!modelling!

    framework! for! addressing! the! planning! and! management! of! integrated! resources!

    (Bazilian! et! al.! 2011).! This! cooperation! has! in! this! study! its! first! concrete! outcome,!

    and!will!hopefully!continue!to!develop!into!a!robust!and!fruitful!relationship.!!!

    !

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    Acknowledgements' I!would! like! to! thank! Sarah!Cornell,!my! supervisor,! for! the! great! opportunity! I’ve!

    been! given,! for! her! support! and! inspiration,! and! for! proving! that! an! insatiable!

    curiosity!is!a!precious!asset.!And!for!making!these!though!times!easy!and!enjoyable.!

    CIn& questions& of& science,& the& authority& of& a& thousand& is& not& worth& the& humble& reasoning&of&a&single&individual.C&

    Galileo!Galilei!

    I! would! also! like! to! thank! Ángel! Uruburu! Colsa! for! his! supervision! and! Mark!

    Howells! and! his! team! at! the! Division! of! Energy! System!Analysis! at! KTH,! for! the!

    support!and!the!welcoming!workshops.!

    Johannes!Friedrich!and!Manuel!Weirich,!I!need!to!thank!you!for!all!the!brainstorms!

    that!somehow!helped!with!channelling! ideas! into! the!paper,!and!for! the! friendship!

    that!made!Stockholm!much!nicer,!even!during!the!winter.!!

    “Friendship& is& born& at& that&moment&when&