Brief analysis Table of contents - Steelonthenet.com · week. Export demand has remained rather week. If Turkish mini-mills resume ordering of the large shipments of American scrap,

Issue 15April, 16 2007

Weeklyanalyticalreport

Brief analysis

In the nearest future, Chinese supplies of long products are expected to go

down, while prices will grow (especially those for SEA) due to the cancellation

of VAT rebate on long product export in China. Chinese exporters have

already increased long products prices by $25/t after new regulations were

announced. The additional pressure may be caused by the rumors on

introduction of indicative price level for semis and long products which may

limit underpriced products supply.

Latest contracts on Japanese HMS ¹2 have been made at $340/t c&f

Taiwan, $332/t c&f South Korea ($15-22/t lower than the offer level). Demand

for import scrap is somewhat weak in South East Asia, as regional prices of

long products have stopped growing, probably having reached their peak.

Turkish traders have cut prices of rebar in the domestic market by $40/t over

the week. The average market price has gone down by $24/t. The change of

market trend was shown by the softening of finished steel and raw materials at

world major markets.

The absence of Turkish producers on the scrap market and general supply

increased allowed to decrease scrap prices. The latest contracts on the

supply of the US shredded scrap have been signed at around $342/t c&f

(down from $365/t a week ago) with offers reaching $355/t.

Last week, prices of Taiwanese and Malaysian rebar increased by $15/t in the

USA, while quotations of other producers remained unchanged. The growth of

quotations is attributed to strong demand in export markets, on the one

hand, and high prices of scrap and semis, on the other hand.

In the Italian and Spanish markets, prices of long products and raw materials

have not changed much over the week with the exception of Italian billet

price increase by EUR30-35/t to EUR475-480/t cpt. High rebar prices in the

region may urge a growth of import supplies to Italy and Spain.

TURKEY MARKET . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

MIDDLE EAST MARKETS. . . . . . . . . 7

MEDITERRANEAN MARKETS. . . . . . 8

NORTH AMERICA . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

SOUTH EAST ASIAN MARKETS . . . 11

STATISTICS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Table of contents

Current scrap & longs prices

Turkey

Italy

Spain

USA

Taiwan

South Korea

import, c&fbillet 570A3 and HMS ¹1&2 (80:20) scrap 345export, fobrebar 650billet 568

import, c&fA3 and HMS ¹1&2 (80:20) scrap 343domestic market, cptrebar 761billet 639

import, c&fA3 and HMS ¹1&2 (80:20) scrap 350domestic market, cptrebar 828wire rod 646

domestic market, cptrebar 675import, c&fTurkey 680

import, c&fbillet 500HMS ¹2 365domestic market, exwrebar 542

import, c&fbillet 495HMS ¹2 331domestic market, exwrebar 530Metal Expert estimations, $/t

2 April, 16 2007Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly© 2007 Metal Expert Research Group, +38 056 370 12 03

Brief analysis

Price dynamics in most important regions of the world

5 Mar 07 12 Mar 07 19 Mar 07 26 Mar 07 02 Apr 07 09 Apr 07 16 Apr 07Turkeyimport, c&fbillet 540 553 560 570 570 570 570A3 and HMS ¹1&2 (80:20) scrap 340 341 352 368 352 360 345shredded scrap 341 341 364 372 372 365 342export, fobrebar 608 620 635 640 645 650 650wire rod 570 610 610 610 610 628 628billet 550 550 550 550 550 550 568domestic market, exw VAT excl.rebar 599 616 631 643 633 644 619wire rod 587 610 619 631 627 628 628MediterraneanItalyimport, c&fA3 and HMS ¹1&2 (80:20) scrap 330 330 340 350 343 343 343new arising scrap 342 342 357 361 360 361 363export, fobrebar 619 658 661 668 673 716 720domestic market, cptrebar 678 704 707 715 713 756 761wire rod 612 612 628 635 686 689 693billet 540 579 579 582 595 593 639shredded scrap 0 342 342 344 351 350 351new arising scrap 317 316 317 321 333 335 337Spainimport, c&fA3 and HMS ¹1&2 (80:20) scrap 330 330 340 368 350 350 350domestic market, cptrebar 714 714 807 816 813 823 828wire rod 550 579 582 588 602 642 646South-East AsiaTaiwanimport, c&fbillet 485 500 500 500 500 500 500HMS ¹2 335 340 340 340 358 365 365HMS ¹1 340 350 350 370 380 380 380domestic market, exwrebar 526 538 552 552 544 543 542South Koreaimport, c&frebar 510 510 510 490 490 490 490billet 485 500 493 493 495 495 495HMS ¹2 311 340 339 341 365 365 331HMS ¹1 342 343 360 370 366 369 365domestic market, exwrebar 515 515 530 530 530 530 530Metal Expert estimations, $/t

3April, 16 2007 Steel Scrap & Longs Weekly© 2007 Metal Expert Research Group, +38 056 370 12 03

Turkey market

Scrap

Analysis Turkey market

Turkish consumers managed to fetch downscrap prices

Scrap prices in Turkey, $/t9 Apr 07 16 Apr 07

ExportUSA, shredded,FOB East Coast 328 308EU, HMS ¹1&2 (80:20),FOB Rotterdam 328 315Russia, A3, FOB Blackand Baltic Sea 318 318Import to Turkey, c&f MarmaraUSA, shredded 365 355EU, HMS ¹1&2(80:20) 360 360Russia, A3 355 357

Turkish producers gradually raise their purchase activity in the scrap market inorder to replenish stocks. Their absence on the scrap market and generalsupply increased allowed to decrease scrap prices. The latest contracts on thesupply of the US shredded scrap have been signed at around $342/t c&f(down from $365/t a week ago) with offers reaching $355/t. Shipments of theEuropean scrap HMS 1&2 (80:20) are contracted at $360/t c&f (offer pricesamount to $360-370/t c&f). Russian 3A scrap is priced at $355-360/t c&f in theTurkish market.

Prices of shredded scrap in the US East Coast have dropped by $20/t over theweek. Export demand has remained rather week. If Turkish mini-mills resumeordering of the large shipments of American scrap, its prices will somewhat growduring the nearest month. However, a gradual growth of scrap supply andreduction of scrap prices in the US market may boost export shipments. Therefore,a possible growth of scrap prices will be replaced by the stabilization by themiddle of Q2.

Export quotations of Russian scrap are stable being supported by strong demandand high purchase prices of local steelmakers. The average purchase prices ofscrap have increased by $8/t to $272/t cpt over the week. In view of Turkishimporters entering the market, export quotations may soon go back to the levelof late March ($325-340/t fob, $365-370/t c&f). However, a further growth ofscrap quotations in Russia is unlikely due to a rise in exports after opening ofriver navigation in Russia.

Forecast of A3 scrap export prices in Black Sea ports, fob, $/t

313333 338

323 323 323 325 330 330 325 320 320

100

200

300

400

Mar

12

Ma

r 19

Ma

r 26

Ap

r 02

Apr

09

Ap

r 16

Ap

r 23

Apr

30

May 0

7

Ma

y 1

4

Ma

y 2

1

May 2

8

FORECAST

Metal Expert Estimates

Forecast of A3 scrap export prices in Baltic Sea ports, fob, $/t

303 313328

313 313 313 315 320 320 315 310 310

100

200

300

400

Mar

12

Mar

19

Mar

26

Apr

02

Apr

09

Apr

16

Apr

23

Apr

30

May 0

7

May 1

4

May 2

1

May 2

8

FORECAST


Export quotations for Russianscrap are expected to recover


AnalysisTurkey market

Low export demand brought downdomestic prices in Turkey

Long products

Turkish traders have cut prices of rebar in the domestic market by $40/t over theweek. The average market price has gone down by $24/t. Producers have notannounced any decrease yet, except for one plant in Marmara region, whichhas reduced quotations to TRY970/t ($598/t) exw. Producers have alreadycontracted most of outputs by now, so they do not need to boost sales bycutting prices.

Reduction of domestic prices has been caused by a decrease of activity inexport markets, as consumers considered Turkish products to be overpriced. As aresult, unsold rebar has been supplied into the domestic market thus bringingdown the quotations.

Domestic prices are also influenced by exchange rate fluctuations. During themonth, Turkish lira has grown by 2.5% against US dollar. According to marketparticipants, it can partially be explained by oncoming presidential electionsin the country.

Reduction of imported scrap prices is another factor to influence thequotations.

Steel scrap and longs pricesin Turkey09 Apr 07 16 Apr 07

rebar, fob 650 650billet, fob 550 568billet, c&f 570 570A3 scrap, c&f 360 345Metal Expert estimations, $/t

Export demand is restrained byhigh prices of Turkish products

Currency fluctuations urgeconsumers to suspend largepurchases

Drop of scrap prices contributedto the adjustment of rebarquotations

Export quotations of European scrap HMS 1&2 (80:20) delivered fromRotterdam have decreased by $13/t since the previous week. The scrapdemand from European consumers remains strong. Thanks to accumulatedscrap reserves, the influence of EU home market on export quotations isgradually reducing. Therefore, growth rates of export quotations for theEuropean scrap will mainly depend on the demand among Turkish mini-mills. The additional pressure on prices will be made by recent decrease ofpurchasing prices in the UK by GBP10/t, and the expected price decrease inthe continental part of the EU by EUR10/t.

Metal Expert estimates that most Turkish traders will enter the market inthe nearest future urged by low scrap stocks and the necessity to supplylong product manufacturers for their May-June operations under the signedcontracts. Prices of the import material may stabilize in May on growingsupplies from main exporting countries and after providing the neededscrap quantity, will start decreasing.

Export quotations of Europeanscrap have fallen

Forecast of scrap import / rebar export prices in Turkey, $/tonne

340

341

352 36

835

236

034

534

535

035

034

534

034

0

608

620

635

640

645

650

650

645

645

645

635

635

630

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

26.0

2.2

007

05.0

3.2

007

12.0

3.2

007

19.0

3.2

007

26.0

3.2

007

02.0

4.2

007

09.0

4.2

007

16.0

4.2

007

23.0

4.2

007

30.0

4.2

007

07.0

5.2

007

14.0

5.2

007

21.0

5.2

007

28.0

5.2

007

A3 scrap c&f rebar fob Metal Expert Estimation

FORECAST


Analysis Turkey market

Low supplies and high prices of billet encourage a growth of rebar prices.On the other hand, signs of recession in the steel product market anduncertainty in further development of the situation urge producers to insiston the decrease of semis prices. At the moment, purchases in the marketare rare and CIS exporters get counteroffers $10-15/t cheaper than thoseof their own.

Thus, considering the above, Turkish domestic prices of long products areexpected to stabilize in the nearest future with a furher decrease.

Shortage of bil let wil lencourage the price growth

CIS producers push billet offer prices up forTurkey

Billet

Domestic price of square billets has not changed much in Turkey since theprevious week. At the same time, offer price of billets from CIS have grown by$5/t to $575-585/t c&f though some consumers manage to buy billets $5-10/tlower of the indicated level.

Export quotations of CIS square billets have increased by $5/t to $560/t fobsince the previous week, though producers are receiving counter offers at $545/t. A shortage of Ukrainian and Russian exports of billets allows exporters to askfor the price increase. In turn, this shortage is attributed to the increasingdemand and prices for finished steel products in the domestic markets of CIS,especially in Russia, favoured by a seasonal rise in the construction sectoractivity. On the other hand, export demand for CIS billets is still high, either.Therefore, export prices of Ukrainian and Russian billets are about to growagain or at least remain stable.

There have been no major changes in Brazilian square billet quotations. Bothexport and domestic demand for Brazilian billets remains stable. However,export prices of semis are not likely to increase substantially as the growth offinished product quotations has ceased.

According to Metal Expert�s estimates, a shortage of import billets inTurkey and high demand and prices for finished steel products throughoutthe world may cause some rise in quotations of square billets importedby Turkish steelmakers. On the other hand, this possibility is limited by anuncertanty in the finished products market.

Billet prices in Turkey, $/t9 Apr 07 16 Apr 07

Export, FOBCIS 555 560Brazil 550 550Import to Turkey, c&fCIS 575 580Brazil 590 590

Export prices of CIS are on therise

Prices of Brazilian square billetsare stable

Forecast of billet export prices in Baltic and Black Sea ports, fob, $/t

527540 550 555 555 550 545 545 535 535 535 530

300

400

500

600

Mar

12

Ma

r 19

Ma

r 26

Ap

r 02

Apr

09

Ap

r 16

Ap

r 23

Apr

30

May 0

7

Ma

y 1

4

Ma

y 2

1

May 2

8

FORECAST



Turkish Steel Scrap Trade Statistics

Oct 06 Nov 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 2 months 07 2 months 06 % change07/06

Import, total 1184 1128 735 1084 1434 2518 1875 34%Import by countries:USA 282 315 350 351 473 824 415 98%United Kingdom 227 91 0 203 354 557 290 92%Russia 268 476 248 238 203 441 358 23%Romania 114 82 50 91 132 223 130 71%Netherlands 95 0 0 0 94 94 121 -22%Algeria 46 62 24 63 26 89 79 13%Georgia 39 29 35 51 21 71 39 85%Note: in �000 tonnes, according to TURKSTAT and Metal Expert estimations.

StatisticsTurkey market


Middle East marketsAnalysis

Middle East markets

Rebar Prices for Ukrainian and Chinese rebar forUAE may be increased

Since the previous week, import rebar in UAE has not changed in price much;domestic quotations have also remained stable. At the same time, there areoffers for Chinese rebar at $535/t c&f in the market, whereas they reached$580/t a week before. As per the market players, this price is offered by smallChinese plants, while the products of higher quality are more expensive.

Chinese export prices for rebar fall between $440 and $520/t fob dependingon producer and the size of shipment. In the nearest weeks, prices are likely togrow in view of VAT reimbursement cancellation on long product exports from 15April (up to now VAT reimbursement rate has been 8%). After this growth, pricesmay be expected to stabilize due to low purchasing activity of foreign tradersas well as the lack of price-supporting factors in Chinese domestic market.

Turkish rebar bound for UAE is quoted at $630-640/t fob. Low purchasingactivity of the Middle East consumers, limited by high prices for rebar, will soonlead to price stabilization. Adjustment of prices for domestic long products andimport scrap in Turkey will also contribute to stabilization, if not decrease, ofquotations. Further direction of price trend will depend on purchasing activity inother consuming markets, and also on price movement of scrap and semis forTurkish producers.

Ukrainian rebar is quoted for export at $590-610/t fob. Global demand forrebar from Ukraine is still high. In view of increasing domestic price of rebar inRussia, a consuming market of Ukrainian rebar, some growth of export quotationsis possible soon. It will allow Ukrainian exporters to raise prices for EasternEurope and the Middle East.

Thus, rebar quotations in UAE are likely to become steady in the nearestfuture due to low purchase activity in the country.

Rebar prices in UAE09 Apr 07 16 Apr 07

domestic market, exw 653 653import from Turkey, c&f 655 655Import from Ukraine, c&f 640 640Import from China, c&f 580 535Metal Expert estimations, $/t

Export prices increase in Chinabecause of tax legislationadjustment

Turkish rebar price will be stable

Prices for Ukrainian productsmay grow soon


Mediterranean markets

Mediterranean markets Analysis

Long productsLong product prices to stabilize in SouthEurope

In the Italian and Spanish markets, prices of long products and raw materialshave not changed much over the week with the exception of Italian billet priceincrease by EUR30-35/t to EUR475-480/t cpt.

Demand for long products in South Europe is strong in both home and exportmarkets. Considering low stocks, this may result in a moderate growth of quotations.

High rebar prices in the region may urge a growth of import supplies toItaly and Spain (current gap between local and import prices of rebaramount to $100-130/t). Shipments of Turkish rebar are most likely to grow, asits prices are going down in the Middle East and the USA. The growth ofimport supplies to the markets of South Europe may lead to the stabilizationor even the decrease of prices.

High quotations for finished steel products have a favourable impact onprices of scrap and billet in the region. According to the availableinformation, Italian and Spanish traders are going to raise scrap prices byEUR5-10/t; however, stable scrap stocks and expectations of an increase ofimport supplies will restrain the price growth. Metal Expert considers that

Forecast of scrap import / rebar domestic prices in Spain, $/tonne

330

330

340 36

835

035

035

035

035

535

535

034

534

5

714

714

807

816

813

823

828

830

835

835

835

830

830

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

26

.02

.2007

05

.03.2

007

12.0

3.2

007

19

.03

.2007

26.0

3.2

007

02.0

4.2

007

09

.04.2

007

16.0

4.2

007

23

.04

.2007

30

.04.2

007

07.0

5.2

007

14

.05

.2007

21.0

5.2

007

28

.05

.2007

A3 scrap c&f rebar exw Metal Expert Estimation

FORECAST

Forecast of scrap import / rebar domestic prices in Italy, $/tonne

330

330

340

350

343

343

343

343

350

350

345

340

340

678 70

470

771

571

3 756

761

760

770

770

770

765

765

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

26

.02

.200

7

05.0

3.2

007

12.0

3.2

00

7

19.0

3.2

007

26.0

3.2

007

02

.04.2

00

7

09.0

4.2

007

16

.04.2

00

7

23.0

4.2

007

30

.04

.200

7

07

.05.2

007

14

.05

.200

7

21

.05.2

00

7

28.0

5.2

007

A3 scrap c&f rebar exw Metal Expert Estimation

FORECAST

Steel scrap and longs pricesin South Europe

Italy 09 Apr 07 16 Apr 07rebar, cpt 756 761rebar, fob 716 720billet, exw 593 593billet, c&f 580 580A3 scrap, c&f 343 343new arising scrap, c&f 361 363Spainrebar, exw 823 828A3 scrap, c&f 350 350Metal Expert estimations, $/t

High prices of finished longproducts favour the growth ofquotations for raw materials


Analysis Mediterranean markets

quotations of billet in the region after the last increase are unlikely to go upfurther even despite high prices of finished steel products. It is mainly explainedby the expected increase of CIS import supplies of the product and a dropof consumption in Turkey.

Therefore, quotations for long products are expected to stabilize in Maydue to the growth of rebar import to South Europe. After that a moderatedownward correction is possible.


North America Analysis

North America

Rebar prices to stabilize in USA Rebar

Last week, prices of Taiwanese and Malaysian rebar increased by $15/t in theUSA, while quotations of other producers remained unchanged.

Offer prices of Taiwanese and Malaysian rebar reach $600/t fob. The growthof quotations is attributed to strong demand in export markets, on the onehand, and high prices of scrap and semis, on the other hand. At the same time,a decrease of rebar demand in South East Asia may urge a growth of exportsupplies and a subsequent stabilization of prices.

Export quotations for Turkish rebar are currently within $640-645/t fob andexpected to stabilize soon due to a decrease of demand in the Middle East,where consumers view Turkish products as overpriced. In the meantime, the USAremains the most attractive market. To maintain the shipment volumes, Turkishproducers will not be raising prices for a while.

Brazilian rebar is currently offered at $600/t fob. However, exports are restrainedby strong domestic demand. Another factor contributing to a decrease of rebarsupply is strong demand for Brazilian billet in export markets. All this may causesome rise in prices of Brazilian long products for the USA.

Though domestic quotations have remained unchanged, some upwardadjustment of $5-10/t may be expected soon to equalize home and importprices. Afterwards, rebar prices may stabilize thanks to some decrease of scrapquotations.

So, in the immediate future rebar prices are expected to remain stable inthe USA.

Prices of Turkish rebar willstabilize

Supplies from Brazil are short

Domestic prices of rebar willstabilize after some adjustment

Rebar prices in the USA09 Apr 07 16 Apr 07

domestic market, exw 675 675import from Turkey, c&f 680 680Import from Taiwan c&f 675 675Import from Brazil, c&f 600 600Metal Expert estimations, $/t


South East Asian markets

Long products

Analysis South East Asian markets

Chinese long products are to become inshort supply in SEA

In South East Asia, long product prices have remained unchanged overthe week.

Demand for the product in the Taiwan and South Korean markets is stable,while purchases are restrained by high prices. In the nearest future, Chinesesupplies of long products are expected to go down, while prices will grow(especially those for SEA) due to the cancellation of VAT rebate on longproduct export in China.

As a result, demand for long products from Taiwan and South Korea may growstronger in the market of SEA. China may increase export of square billet to theregion (restrictions are not applied to semis export), thus improving the supplyand restraining the growth of long product prices.

Another important factor for the market may be the increase of Chineselong products export prices by $25/t after new regulations were announced.The additional pressure may be caused by the rumors on introduction ofindicative price level for semis and long products which may limit underpricedproducts supply.

Quotations for long products are supported by high prices of scrap and billet. Inorder to restore their profitability, producers from Taiwan are about to increaseprices of H-beam by TWD1,000/t (about $30/t). In Taiwan, quotations of importscrap HMS¹1 and HMS¹2 have gained $70-75/t since the beginning of theyear, while H-beam price has added a mere $50/t.

According to Metal Expert�s estimates, long product prices are not aboutto change much in SEA, as some growth of long product demand inexport markets (caused by low export from China) may be accompaniedby the increase of Chinese billet supplies. However, to make up forgrowing costs of raw materials, producers in SEA may try to increasedomestic prices.

Forecast of scrap import / rebar domestic prices in South East Asia, $/tonne

330

330

330 36

036

037

036

536

536

035

535

034

034

0

526 53

8 552

552

544

543

542 55

555

055

055

054

554

5

200

300

400

500

600

26

.02

.200

7

05

.03.2

00

7

12.0

3.2

007

19

.03

.200

7

26.0

3.2

007

02.0

4.2

007

09

.04.2

00

7

16.0

4.2

007

23

.04

.200

7

30

.04.2

00

7

07.0

5.2

007

14

.05

.200

7

21.0

5.2

007

28.0

5.2

007

A3 scrap c&f rebar exw Taiw anMetal Expert Estimation

FORECAST

Steel scrap and longs pricesin South East Asia

Taiwan 09 Apr 07 16 Apr 07rebar, exw 543 543billet, c&f 500 500HMS ¹1 scrap, c&f 380 355HMS ¹2 scrap, c&f 365 365South Korearebar, exw 530 530rebar, c&f 490 515billet, c&f 495 495HMS ¹1 scrap, c&f 369 369HMS ¹2 scrap, c&f 365 365Metal Expert estimations, $/t

Growing prices of scrap andsemis urge producers to raiseprices


AnalysisSouth East Asian markets

ScrapPrices of import scrap have decreased inAsia&Pacific

In South East Asia, offer price of American scrap HMS ¹1 stays within $360-370/t c&f. Latest contracts on Japanese HMS ¹2 have been made at $340/tc&f Taiwan, $332/t c&f South Korea ($15-22/t lower than the offer level). Russianscrap A3 is offered in the region at $360-370/t c&f, while contracts are made at$355/t c&f. Demand for import scrap is somewhat weak in South East Asia, asregional prices of long products have stopped growing, probably having reachedtheir peak.

Export quotations of Japanese scrap HMS ¹2 have continued softening thisweek. By contrast to this, domestic prices are strong for the time being, urgedby a short supply on stable demand. One week before, Tokyo Steel Mfg Coincreased purchase prices by $4-8/t at plants Utsunomiya è Okayama, to$316$/t and $330/t cpt, accordingly, this week price levels were unghanged.Therefore, domestic supplies have a higher priority for Japanese traders. In thecircumstances, this will allow exporters to ask for price increase in the days tocome.

Export price of scrap HMS ¹1 is stable in the US West Coast ports. Consideringsufficient scap supply and accumulated stocks in the domestic market, exportvolumes of American scrap are expected to grow soon. As a result, quotations ofAmerican scrap exported to Asia&Pacific region may stabilize in the next fewweeks. Additional pressure on prices may be put by softening prices for theJapanese HMS ¹2 scrap shipments.

Export quotations of Russian scrap 3A have decreased by $5/t during week.Taking into account a seasonal increase of Russian scrap supply, includingshipments to South East Asia, a considerable price growth is unlikely in theimmediate future.

According to Metal Expert�s estimates, considering a possible growth ofscrap imports in South East Asia and a relatively weak demand for finishedsteel products, offer price of scrap is expected to remain stable ordecrease in the immediate future.

Forecast of A3 scrap export prices in Far East ports, fob, $/t

320 325345 345 345 340 340 335 330 325 320 320

100

200

300

400

Mar

12

Ma

r 1

9

Mar

26

Apr

02

Ap

r 09

Apr

16

Apr

23

Ap

r 30

Ma

y 0

7

May 1

4

Ma

y 2

1

May 2

8

FORECAST


Scrap prices in SEA, $/t9 Apr 07 16 Apr 07

Export, FOBJapan, HMS ¹2 318 310USA, HMS ¹1 310 310Russia, A3 345 340Import to Taiwan, c&fJapan, HMS ¹2 365 340USA, HMS ¹1 368 365Russia, A3 370 370Import to South Korea, c&fJapan, HMS ¹2 365 332USA, HMS ¹1 370 365Russia, A3 360 355

Scrap supply from the USA mayincrease

Export quotations of Russianscrap decreased


Analysis South East Asian markets

Import billet prices are stable in SEABillet

Chinese and Russian billet prices have not changed much in South East Asiaover the week.

Export prices of Chinese billet have remained unchanged. The demand forChinese semi-finished products and rebar remains stable among the largestconsumers. However, since they are reluctant to buy overpriced (as they believe)finished steel products, a substantial increase of export quotations for Chinesebillet is possible only if the government imposes restrictions on export of semisfrom China.

Russian quotations for square billet for SEA have stabilized on $505/t fob. Onthe one hand, prices are supported by a shortage of Russian billet in the worldmarkets resulted from growing demand and prices for long products in Russia.On the other hand, the growth of export quotations is restrained by weekdemand for the long products in SEA.

According to Metal Expert�s estimates, prices of import billets may growin South East Asia in case the Chinese government imposes restrictionson semis export. Otherwise, quotations for import semi-finished productsare expected to get stable.

Billet prices in SEA, $/t9 Apr 07 16 Apr 07

Export, FOBChina 488 488Russia 505 505Import, c&fTo Taiwan, China 503 503To South Korea, China 503 503To SEA, CIS 525 525

Export prices of Russian squarebillet may rise slightly


Statistics

Statistics

Scrap deliveries to the largest steel mills in European region of Russia

1.02- 11.02- 21.02- 1.03- 11.03- 21.03- 1.04-10.02 20.02 28.02 10.03 20.03 31.03 10.04

Severstaldeliveries 19,3 36,7 25,1 36,3 47,4 88,4 64,1estimated scrap consumption 97,5 97,5 78,0 105,1 105,1 115,6 105,1% covering of estimated demand 20% 38% 32% 35% 45% 76% 61%OEMKdeliveries 15,4 13,2 8,6 7,4 14,2 24,3 25,4estimated scrap consumption 19,4 19,4 15,5 20,5 20,5 22,6 20,5% covering of estimated demand 79% 68% 55% 36% 69% 108% 124%Novolipetsky steel worksdeliveries 23,1 15,2 11,5 11,4 23,7 26,7 47,5estimated scrap consumption 40,6 40,6 32,5 43,5 43,5 47,8 43,5% covering of estimated demand 57% 37% 35% 26% 55% 56% 109%Krasny Oktyabr Steel Worksdeliveries 7,3 10,3 7,2 5,1 5,7 7,4 5,7Total European region 65,2 75,4 52,4 60,2 90,9 146,8 142,6estimated scrap consumption 172,5 172,4 137,0 167,7 167,1 182,7 165,9% covering of estimated demand 38% 44% 38% 36% 54% 80% 86%Note: in �000 tonnes, according to Metal Expert estimations.

Scrap deliveries to the largest steel mills in Ural region of Russia

1.02- 11.02- 21.02- 1.03- 11.03- 21.03- 1.04-10.02 20.02 28.02 10.03 20.03 31.03 10.04

Zapadno-Sibirsky Steel Worksdeliveries 20,9 21,2 14,4 15,5 27,5 44,8 39,0estimated scrap consumption 35,5 35,5 28,4 41,4 41,4 45,6 41,4% covering of estimated demand 59% 60% 51% 37% 66% 98% 94%MECHELdeliveries 20,0 16,4 10,4 16,3 14,1 36,4 35,8estimated scrap consumption 35,0 35,0 28,0 37,1 37,1 40,9 37,1% covering of estimated demand 57% 47% 37% 44% 38% 89% 96%Magnitogorsky steel worksdeliveries 85,5 69,4 49,3 48,7 69,4 69,6 55,6estimated scrap consumption 137,4 137,4 121,1 146,0 146,0 155,0 146,0% covering of estimated demand 62% 51% 41% 33% 48% 45% 38%Novokuznetsk Steel Worksdeliveries 9,5 9,4 6,1 7,8 12,5 22,2 12,3estimated scrap consumption 25,6 25,6 20,5 25,7 25,7 28,3 25,7% covering of estimated demand 37% 37% 30% 30% 49% 79% 48%�Uralskaya stal�deliveries 9,6 7,6 4,9 5,9 10,1 15,0 15,6estimated scrap consumption 26,2 26,2 21,0 26,2 26,2 28,9 26,2% covering of estimated demand 37% 29% 23% 22% 39% 52% 59%Ashinsk Steel Worksdeliveries 18,7 14,8 9,1 9,7 11,2 12,2 10,0Nizhnetaguilsky steel worksdeliveries 7,1 7,1 5,7 7,3 10,7 11,2 7,0estimated scrap consumption 8,5 8,5 6,8 9,5 9,5 10,5 9,5% covering of estimated demand 84% 84% 84% 77% 112% 107% 74%Zlatoutovsky Steel Worksdeliveries 3,4 5,2 4,4 4,2 4,9 6,4 6,5Izhstaldeliveries 7,7 4,2 3,5 7,5 9,6 11,6 6,5Nizhnye Sergi Metalware and Metallurgical plantdeliveries 48,8 57,4 46,6 67,7 66,0 48,9 71,4Total European region 231,2 212,7 154,4 190,6 236,0 278,4 259,7estimated scrap consumption 360,5 362,6 307,6 360,1 361,6 390,1 364,0% covering of estimated demand 64% 59% 50% 53% 65% 71% 71%Note: in �000 tonnes, according to Metal Expert estimations.

Scrap deliveries to the largest steel mills in Russian Far East

1.02- 11.02- 21.02- 1.03- 11.03- 21.03- 1.04-10.02 20.02 28.02 10.03 20.03 31.03 10.04

Amurmetaldeliveries 14,1 14,8 16,2 13,9 16,1 25,8 19,1estimated scrap consumption 21,7 21,7 17,4 21,7 21,7 23,9 21,7% covering of estimated demand 65% 68% 93% 64% 74% 108% 88%Note: in �000 tonnes, according to Metal Expert estimations.

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Price dynamics in most important regions of the world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

Scrap prices in Turkey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Steel scrap and longs prices in Turkey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Metal Expert estimations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Billet prices in Turkey. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Turkish Steel Scrap Trade Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Rebar prices in UAE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Steel scrap and longs prices in South Europe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Rebar prices in the USA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Steel scrap and longs prices in South East Asia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Scrap prices in SEA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Billet prices in SEA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Scrap deliveries to the largest steel mills in European region of Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Scrap deliveries to the largest steel mills in Ural region of Russia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Scrap deliveries to the largest steel mills in Russian Far East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

This document is for information purposes only. The information contained in this document hasbeen compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Metal Expert Research Group cannot be madeliable for any loss no matter how it may arise.

Copyright notice: Metal Courier 2007. All publications (text, data or graphic) are from the ownsource of information of Metal Courier. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in adata retrieval or transmitted in any form without obtaining Metal Expert Research Group’s priorwritten consent. Please contact Metal Courier on 38 056 370-12-03, 38 0562 31-41-23e-mail: [email protected]

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Brief analysis Table of contents - Steelonthenet.com · week. Export demand has remained rather week. If Turkish mini-mills resume ordering of the large shipments of American scrap,