BRIEFING ON HORN OF AFRICA

Presentation by the

Chief Directorate East Africa

Amb LM Makhubela

Chief Director East Africa

18 OCTOBER 2006

Horn of Africa

Country GDP(2005) GDP Growth

Djibouti US$708.3m 3.2%

Eritrea US$1.003.2m 2.0%

Ethiopia US$9.810.8m 8.9%

Somalia Official statistics unavailable

The Sudan US$29.6bn 8.0%

Horn of Africa

Country Population Population (2005) Growth

Djibouti 7 200 4.4%

Eritrea 4.4 m 3.0%

Ethiopia 77.9 m 2.3

Somalia 11.3 m Not available

The Sudan 36.2 m 1.9%

Characteristics of the Horn of Africa Region

• Conflict-stricken region (with the exception of Djibouti)

• Post-conflict reconstruction and development• On-going peace talks (with the exception of

Djibouti)• Emerging democracies in Djibouti and Ethiopia• Fledging economies• High levels of poverty• High degree of donor dependency

LEVELS OF ENGAGEMENT WITH THE REGION

• There are two levels of engagement with the region, namely:

- Peace , security, stability and democracy

- Socio-economic co-operation and development

The Sudan

Recent Developments

North-South (Implementation of CPA)– Slow progress:

1. North-South Boundaries,

2. Recommendations of Abyei Boundaries Commission,

3. Security Arrangements,

4. Wealth – sharing (oil revenue sharing)

Challenges– Widening gap and confidence between NCP and SPLM/A– NCP lacks political will– SPLM/A lacks capacity and political will– Cessation threat– Implementation to be affected by the negative political climate in the

country + GoS stance on Darfur– Non-engagements by other Sudan political parties

The Sudan (cont…)

Recent DevelopmentsDarfur– Deterioration of security and humanitarian situation (banditry,

attacks against civilians + IDPs, hijack of humanitarian convoys)

– Slow implementation of DPA– DPA divisive mechanism -- signatories vs non-signatories– GoS refuse re-hatting of AMIS– Militarisation of IDPsChallenges– Non-signatories to DPA– Divisions among non-signatories to DPA– Re-hatting of AMIS– Offensive by GoS against non-signatories

The Sudan (cont…)

Recent Developments

Eastern Sudan– Signing of wealth sharing and security

arrangements protocols– Power sharing protocol to be signed

Challenges– Negotiations on Implementation Mechanism of

peace agreement

The Sudan (cont…)

South Africa’s Involvement• Implementation of the Capacity and Institution

Building Project (7 training programmes implemented, current training on Justice System)

• JBC• Contributed military and civilian police personnel

to AMIS in Darfur• SA supports re-hatting of AMIS• Development of a strategic framework for SA’s

assistance to CPA protagonists• Chair of AU Committee on Post-conflict

Reconstruction and Development on Sudan

Somalia

Recent Developments– Success of second round of Khartoum peace talks– Assassination attempt against President Yusuf– Ethiopian troops took control of Bur Hagaba town– UIC took control of Kismayo port, Jowher and Balad towns– UIC declared Jihad against Ethiopia– AU decision to deploy troops in Somalia (IGASOM)– Request by Somali Prime Minister for partial lifting of arms

embargo

Challenges– Conflict between TFG and UIC– Ethiopian and alleged Eritrean involvement– Development of National Reconciliation Strategy

Somalia

South Africa’s Involvement• Interaction with Parties to the conflict in Somalia

• Interaction with other role-players

• Provide advise on developments

• Support AU decisions on Somalia

Ethiopia and Eritrea

Border DisputeRecent Developments• Military situation in the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) is

stable but tense• Continued training and maintenance activities by both Eritrea

and Ethiopia in areas adjacent the TSZ• Restrictions on UN Mission by Eritrea• Detention of UN Mission’ LRPs and Volunteers by Eritrea• UNMEE completed its reconfiguration plan (in compliance

with UN Security Council Resolution 1681 (2006))• Opening and staffing of the Boundaries Commission’s Field

Office in Addis Ababa• Restrictions on diplomats by Eritrea• Growing political intolerance by Eritrea

Ethiopia and Eritrea

Border Dispute

Challenges• Impasse on the implementation of the

Boundaries Commission’s decision• Refusal to attend meetings by Eritrea• Restrictions on UNMEE impede Mission’s

ability to effectively monitor the TSZ• Defection by Ethiopian military personnel

Ethiopia and Eritrea

South Africa’s Involvement• JMC with Ethiopia• Contribution of troops to UNMEE• Minister is the President’s Special Envoy on

Ethiopia-Eritrea Border Dispute• Application for Humanitarian assistance for flood

victims in Ethiopia

Djibouti

Recent Developments• Official visit to Djibouti by Business Unit• Engaged with counterparts to increase diplomatic

interaction• Initiated the process of finalising a general co-operation

agreement with Djibouti

Challenges• Establish regular consultation and exchange of visits