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1 Broadcast Stig Eide Sivertsen

Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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Page 1: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

11

Broadcast

Stig Eide Sivertsen

Page 2: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

22

Agenda

1. Overview2. TV Distribution3. Nordic TV Distribution

growth opportunities4. Transmission5. Summary

Page 3: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

33

Overview 2003Delivered as promised

Continued subscriber growthStreamlined organisationReduced churnPiracy controlNumber 1 Nordic content provider

Operating cash flow of 1 billion NOK in 2003

Page 4: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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OverviewLeading positions throughout the value chain

Transmission DistributionContent

Page 5: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

55

Subscribers with satellite dishDTH

Cable TV subscribersCable

Households in small antenna TV-networksSMATV

Free to air channels only to DTH householdsDTH cards only

Reaching customers across different access platforms

Households:Monthly ARPU:

294 NOK763 000

242 000

604 000 128 NOK

1 098 00 25 NOK

Page 6: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

66

TV Distribution 70%

DTH

Cable

SMATV

Satellite

Terrestrial

Other

Transmission24%

OverviewRevenue distribution 2003

Gross revenue of 5.4 billion NOK

Page 7: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

77

507

1 217

350252

384

805

2001 2002 2003

Financial OverviewTop line growth and margin expansion

Revenues (NOKm) / EBITDA % EBITDA and Capex (NOKm) Operating Cash Flow (NOKm)

2 614

3 607

4 800

13 % 14 %

25 %

2001 2002 2003

-455

123

965

2001 2002 2003

Excludes sales gains / lossesOperating Cash Flow = EBITDA - CAPEX

EBITDA CAPEX

Page 8: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

88

120

204

316 311

386

187

74

169

28 3556

133

Q32002

Q42002

Q12003

Q22003

Q32003

Q42003

Financial OverviewImproved operations quarter by quarter

1 059

1 162 1 138 1 158 1 194

1 310

17 %10 %

18 %

27 % 26 %

29 %

Q32002

Q42002

Q12003

Q22003

Q32003

Q42003

113

-49

176

281255 254

Q32002

Q42002

Q12003

Q22003

Q32003

Q42003

Revenues (NOKm) / EBITDA % EBITDA and Capex (NOKm) Operating Cash Flow (NOKm)

Excludes sales gains / lossesOperating Cash Flow = EBITDA - CAPEX

EBITDA CAPEX

Page 9: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

99

Agenda

1.1.1. OverviewOverviewOverview2. TV Distribution3.3.3. Nordic TV Distribution Nordic TV Distribution Nordic TV Distribution

growth opportunitiesgrowth opportunitiesgrowth opportunities4.4.4. TransmissionTransmissionTransmission5.5.5. SummarySummarySummary

Page 10: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

1010

TV DistributionContinuous growth and improved operations in 2003

DTH subscriber base increased 9%

DTH pay TV market share increased from 61% to 63%

DTH ARPU increased 9%

Cable ARPU increased 13%

DTH churn down from 19% to 16%

Streamlined operations after Canal Digital integration

Page 11: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

1111

Nordic DTH Subscribers (‘000)

TV DistributionMarket share increased quarter by quarter

Observations

Canal Digital’s subscriber CAGR exceeds 20%– primarily due to

premium content

Canal Digital’s packaging strategy different from MTG/Viasat’s

465500

459 456 442 424 439

506569

614646 664

701 713 708

413453 451

763726

Q32001

Q42001

Q12002

Q22002

Q32002

Q42002

Q12003

Q22003

Q32003

Q42003

Viasat Premium Subscribers Canal Digital Premium Subscribers

Page 12: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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TV DistributionDTH subscriber and ARPU growth

DTH subscribers (‘000) and ARPU (NOK) Observations

Extended content offering contributed to subscriber and ARPU growth

ARPU expected to level out as new customer have lower priced subscriptions

412

569

763701

239 251 270 294

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2001 2002 20030

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

DTH subscriber base Monthly DTH ARPU

Page 13: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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DTH Churn Development Strategy

TV DistributionDTH churn reduced to 16%

Increased customer satisfaction

– Content and pricing

– Operational excellence

Piracy control through Conax system

2000 2001 2002 2003

41 %

33 %

16 %19 %

Page 14: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

1414

TV DistributionCable subscriber and ARPU growth

Cable subscribers (‘000) and ARPU (NOK) Observations

High speed internet and digital TV drives Cable TV revenue

Pricing and packaging

Organic subscriber growth357

554604

571

101 107 113128

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000 2001 2002 20030

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Cable subscriber base Monthly CATV ARPU

Page 15: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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TV DistributionStreamlining increases profitability

Promotion of Canal Digital as joint TV brand

Headcount down 30% after Canal Digital integration

Economies of scale in content purchase

Optimising pricing and product mix

Avidi

Vision

DTH

CATV

SMATV

Page 16: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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Improved operations with Canal Digital 100%

Excludes sales gains / losses, proforma numbers

Numbers include Canal Digital 100%

3 973

4 4364 800

9 %

25 %

-1 %

2001 2002 2003

Revenues (NOKm) / EBITDA %

Profitablegrowth

ARPUgrowth

251 270294

107 113 128

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2001 2002 2003

DTH ARPU Cable ARPU

1 156

809972

June 30th2002

2002 2003

Man-labour year

Staffreductions

Economies of scale 0,6

1,3 1,4

2001 2002 2003

DTH + CATV (million subs)

Page 17: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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779857 872

917 948

1 037

6 %3 %

10 %

21 %18 %

23 %

Q32002

Q42002

Q12003

Q22003

Q32003

Q42003

TV DistributionStable growth and operational turnaround

26

85

188166

235

4345

201717

105

58

Q32002

Q42002

Q12003

Q22003

Q32003

Q42003

2

-79

68

171146

177

Q32002

Q42002

Q12003

Q22003

Q32003

Q42003

Revenues (NOKm) / EBITDA % EBITDA and Capex (NOKm) Operating Cash Flow (NOKm)

EBITDA CAPEX

Excludes sales gains / lossesOperating Cash Flow = EBITDA - CAPEX

Page 18: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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TV DistributionPotential for increased margins

Both Canal Digital andBSkyB have potential for increased margins after expansion phase

Canal Digital is best practice on important cost parameters and rivalsBSkyB on profitability

BSkyB is best practice on ARPU and churn due to monopoly and economies of scale

DTH Benchmarks 2003 Canal Digital BSkyB

EBITDA-margin 18 % 18 %

DTH subscribers 763 000 7 200 000

Subs growth 2002-2003 9 % 10 %

Monthly ARPU (NOK) 294 398

Churn 16 % 9 %

Page 19: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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Agenda

1.1.1. OverviewOverviewOverview2.2.2. TV DistributionTV DistributionTV Distribution3. Nordic TV Distribution

growth opportunities4.4.4. TransmissionTransmissionTransmission5.5.5. SummarySummarySummary

Page 20: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

2020

TV Distribution3 million households will convert to digital TV

Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available information

TV Households ('000) Norway Sweden Denmark Finland Total

Cable 860 2 560 1 160 1 070 5 650DTH (inkl. cards only) 570 780 470 130 1 950Terrestrial Digital (DTT) 0 250 0 200 360Terrestrial Analogue only 530 710 780 800 2 910

Nordic TV Market 1 960 4 300 2 410 2 200 10 870

Opportunity for TV Distribution

Opportunity for Norkring

Page 21: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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DTHFighting piracy increases the addressable market

Canal Digital is not commercially hacked today, due to:– intensive work on encryption

technology– frequently change of smart cards

Piracy and MTG/Viasat are major competitors

Estimated 300 000 pirate MTG/Viasatcards in the Nordic region

Picture: Buena Vista International Norge

Page 22: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

2222

Canal Digitals leading Nordic position ensures access to the best content– effects on recruitment and churn

Opportunities to repack and extend the program packages – increase margins

Canal Plus in final rounds to retain Premier League

TV DistributionContent uniqueness will still drive revenue

Page 23: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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TV DistributionSweden and Norway are our strongest markets

Key Observationsand Strategy

Finland and Denmark are growth opportunities

CRM operator role for DTT in Finland will strengthen our Finish position

5%

8%

2%14%

Canal Digital’s DTH subscribersas a % of total TV households

Page 24: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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Agenda

1.1.1. OverviewOverviewOverview2.2.2. TV DistributionTV DistributionTV Distribution3.3.3. Nordic TV Distribution Nordic TV Distribution Nordic TV Distribution

growth opportunitiesgrowth opportunitiesgrowth opportunities4. Transmission5.5.5. SummarySummarySummary

Page 25: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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TransmissionSteady profitable development

Satellite Broadcasting

– New business compensates for analogue shut down

– Cost reductions to compensate revenue drop

958

782

37 %44 %

2002 2003

506 501

44 % 42 %

2002 2003

Revenues (NOKm) / EBITDA %

Excludes sales gains / losses

Norkring (terrestrial transmission)

– New radio contract from 2004– Potential for new revenues in new

digital services

Revenues (NOKm) / EBITDA %

Page 26: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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TransmissionSatellite Broadcasting is the leading Nordic satellite operator

Analogue to digital migration completed

Intensified sales of new products and services in 2003

Intelsat 10-02 investment of 88 USDmwill improve profitability from H2 2004

Evaluation of ownership strategy for Satellite Broadcasting

Page 27: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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TransmissionDigitization is an opportunity for increased revenues in terrestrial transmission

New radio station and digital radio (DAB) have extended existing contract portfolio

Digital transmission TV (DTT) gives expansion opportunities

Norkring excels in Benchmark analysis

Page 28: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

2828

358337 332

315 313 317

41 %38 %

42 % 40 %46 %

45 %

Q32002

Q42002

Q12003

Q22003

Q32003

Q42003

TransmissionSteady profitable development

127 139 127144 144

30

148

25161035

65

Q32002

Q42002

Q12003

Q22003

Q32003

Q42003

11892

129111 119

79

Q32002

Q42002

Q12003

Q22003

Q32003

Q42003

Revenues (NOKm) / EBITDA % EBITDA and Capex (NOKm) Operating Cash Flow (NOKm)

EBITDA CAPEX

Excludes sales gains / lossesOperating Cash Flow = EBITDA - CAPEX

Page 29: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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Agenda

1.1.1. OverviewOverviewOverview2.2.2. TV DistributionTV DistributionTV Distribution3.3.3. Nordic TV Distribution growth opportunitiesNordic TV Distribution growth opportunitiesNordic TV Distribution growth opportunities4.4.4. TransmissionTransmissionTransmission5. Summary

Page 30: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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BroadcastSummary

Substantial growth within TV Distribution

Improved operations in TV Distribution

Stable profitability in Transmission

Potential for further Nordic growth

Page 31: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

3131

2004 Expectations

Continuing revenue growth

Targeting an improved EBITDA margin from 2003

Capex (ex. Satellite and DTT) at 2003 level

Revenue

EBITDA

Capex

BroadcastOutlook

Page 32: Broadcast - Telenor Group · DTH Free to air channels only to DTH households ... TV Distribution DTH subscriber and ARPU growth ... Numbers are Broadcast estimates based on available

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