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SMB Securities (Pvt) Ltd SMB Research 1 | Page  BROWN & COMPANY PLC Recommendation BUY  We recommend a strong buy rating based on company’s strong future performance. Browns is expected to enjoy improved profit margins owning to expanding market shares whilst dominating its key revenue generating sectors and innovating strategic investments.  We anticipate a YoY Net Income increment of 42.20% for FY2011/12E owning to growth prospects of Browns supported by a 46.35% of YoY increase in GP margins followed by substantial reductions in finance costs and high contributions from associates’ results. Based on our forecasts we have arrived to an intrinsic value of share of LKR 684.37 a price increase of 77.53% in next twelve months period.  A considerable development can be expected in the industries where Browns has its presence as a result of high growth potentials in the economy. We expect the company to capitalize largely on this enhancement in industry volume due to its market expansion.  The company is currently associated with world leading brands in its product portfolio which are holding strong presence in the country over a long period of time.  Browns have the benefit of its strong distribution network. Service centers, regional and mini regional centers, dealer network are currently strengthening its product distribution and these are anticipated to expand. Price LKR 385.50 Price Target LKR 648.58 Price Target (12M) LKR 684.37 Stock Code BRWN.N0000 Sector Trading FY Ends March 31 May 13, 2011 Major Shareholders as of Dec 31, 2010 Name of Shareholder No of Shares % Engineering Serv. (Pvt) Ltd. 16,588,962 23 Mason's Mixture Ltd. 13,732,632 19 Lanka Orix Leasing Co. PLC 4,519,200 6 Mutugala Estates (Pvt) Ltd. 2,986,524 4 Mr. S.V. Somasunderam 2,310,800 3 Pathregalla Estates (Pvt) Ltd. 1,961,658 3 ACE Bonus Investments Ltd. 1,755,000 2 Vyjayanthi & Company Ltd. 1,155,897 2 Mr. A.L. Devasurendra 1,098,900 2 Bank Of Ceylon A/C No.1 716,000 1 46,825,573 66 1M 3M 12M BRWN 10% 48% 295% TRD 6% 26% 215% ASPI 3% 4% 73% Figure 1 : Share Performance of Browns Market Profile  52W Price Range LKR 95.00 – 391.90 Avg Daily Volume 182,473 Avg Daily Turnover LKR 38,607,974 Market Capitalization LKR 27,322Mn Mkt Cap/Total Mkt Cap 1.10% Shares Issued 70,875,000 Free Float 51.51% Foreign Holding 10.04% Market Beta 1.21 EPS LKR 49.66 NAPS LKR 289.80 Source: CSE Data & SMB Research D/E Ratio 16.28% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% Volume Mn Volume ASPI Trading BRWN.N0000

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BROWN & COMPANY PLC

Recommendation BUY •  We recommend a strong buy rating based on company’s

strong future performance. Browns is expected to enjoy

improved profit margins owning to expanding market

shares whilst dominating its key revenue generating

sectors and innovating strategic investments.

•  We anticipate a YoY Net Income increment of 42.20% for

FY2011/12E owning to growth prospects of Browns

supported by a 46.35% of YoY increase in GP margins

followed by substantial reductions in finance costs and

high contributions from associates’ results. Based on our

forecasts we have arrived to an intrinsic value of share of LKR 684.37 a price increase of 77.53% in next twelve

months period.

•  A considerable development can be expected in the

industries where Browns has its presence as a result of 

high growth potentials in the economy. We expect the

company to capitalize largely on this enhancement in

industry volume due to its market expansion.

•  The company is currently associated with world leading

brands in its product portfolio which are holding strong

presence in the country over a long period of time.

•  Browns have the benefit of its strong distribution network.

Service centers, regional and mini regional centers, dealer

network are currently strengthening its product

distribution and these are anticipated to expand.

Price LKR 385.50

Price Target LKR 648.58

Price Target (12M) LKR 684.37

Stock Code BRWN.N0000

Sector Trading

FY Ends March 31

May 13, 2011

Major Shareholders as of Dec 31, 2010

Name of Shareholder No of Shares %

Engineering Serv. (Pvt) Ltd. 16,588,962 23

Mason's Mixture Ltd. 13,732,632 19

Lanka Orix Leasing Co. PLC 4,519,200 6

Mutugala Estates (Pvt) Ltd. 2,986,524 4

Mr. S.V. Somasunderam 2,310,800 3

Pathregalla Estates (Pvt) Ltd. 1,961,658 3

ACE Bonus Investments Ltd. 1,755,000 2

Vyjayanthi & Company Ltd. 1,155,897 2

Mr. A.L. Devasurendra 1,098,900 2

Bank Of Ceylon A/C No.1 716,000 1

46,825,573 66

1M 3M 12M

BRWN 10% 48% 295%

TRD 6% 26% 215%

ASPI ‐3% ‐4% 73%

Figure 1 : Share Performance of Browns Market Profile

 

52W Price Range LKR 95.00 – 391.90

Avg Daily Volume 182,473Avg Daily Turnover LKR 38,607,974

Market Capitalization LKR 27,322Mn

Mkt Cap/Total Mkt Cap 1.10%

Shares Issued 70,875,000

Free Float 51.51%

Foreign Holding 10.04%

Market Beta 1.21

EPS LKR 49.66

NAPS LKR 289.80

Source: CSE Data & SMB Research D/E Ratio 16.28%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

400%

Volume Mn

Volume ASPI Trading BRWN.N0000

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Business Description

 

More than 136 years of business

operations in the country 

 A trading/manufacturing entity branched 

out to new areas of business

Brown & Company PLC is a diversified business conglomerate

in Sri Lanka mainly dominating in the trading sector whilst

keeping its interest open for developing industries. Brownshistory counts back to 1875 where it commenced its business

operations mainly focusing on importing and manufacturing of 

farming and agricultural machinery. Today the company

carries out its business in various segments broadening its

horizons not only to trading and manufacturing but also to

travel and tours, finance and plantations. As a strategic move

Browns has invested in new business ventures gaining

advantage of a more expanded business portfolio. The

company currently holds the market leadership in seven key

sectors which it operates. The Browns group comprise of 

nineteen subsidiaries, three associates and one joint venture

company.

Figure 2 : Segmental Revenue 3Q 

FY10/11

Segmental Overview

 

Browns group has identified its main revenue generating areas

under five segments namely Trading, Manufacturing, Travels &

tours, Finance and Plantations. These key business segments

of the company are further classified according to the

industries they are operating in. The trading segment is the

largest contributor to the group’s revenue whilst the

plantations sector became the second highest contributor

being the latest addition to the group.

Trading & Manufacturing Segments

The trading and manufacturing arm of the Browns group

caters to different business sectors namely Engineering and

Hardware, Power Generation, Agriculture, Pharmaceuticals,

Business Solutions and Electronics & Home Appliances.

Engineering and Hardware Sector

This sector carries out the businesses of importing and

distributing of hardware, industrial tools & machinery and

electrical accessories through general trading division,

marketing of consumer home appliances, domestic water

pumps & automobile batteries through consumer division and

marketing of FG Wilson generators through power systems

division of the company. In addition its subsidiaries Browns

Group Industries engages in importing & distributing of 

Yanmar marine engines & marine accessories whilst Browns

Radiators (formerly known as Browns Dimo Industrial)

manufactures automotive, locomotive & non‐auto radiators

and oil & air coolers under Radco brand. Currently this sector

consumes stakes of 51%, 65%, 42% and 15% in power tools &

accessories, marine engines, radiators and power systems

respectively.

Figure 3 : Segmental Profit from

Operations 3Q FY10/11

Source: Browns Quarterly Report, 3Q FY10/11

Trading

60%

Manufactu

ring

10%Travel &

Tours

0%

Finance

1%

Plantation

29%

Trading

21%

Manufactu

ring

3%

Travel &

Tours

0%

Finance

32%

Plantation

44%

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Figure 4 : Revenue Breakdown of 

Trading/Manufacturing Segment

FY09/10

Power Generation Sector

The battery division of Brown & Company PLC along with its

subsidiary Klevenberg (Pvt) Ltd and its associate Associated

Battery Manufactures (Cey) Ltd engage in the business of 

manufacturing and trading of automotive, non automotive and

motorcycle batteries and trading of battery acid and battery

water. Brown’s battery division is the most successful

individual unit which generates over 20% to the total revenue

over the past years depicting impressive results. Browns

dominates the automotive battery segment with a 64% of 

stake through Exide brand with 53% and Lucas brand with

10%. The company intends to increase Lucas’s share further to

21%.

Agriculture Sector

Agriculture division of the company imports and distributes

four wheel tractors and markets agriculture implements &

tractor implements where Browns’ subsidiary Sifang Lanka is

importing, assembling & distributing two wheel tractors.

Moreover as a latest addition, a separate division provides

plantation support services & energy efficient solution for

plantation industry and markets plantation machinery &

equipments. Browns is the market leader in the total tractors

market with a share of 73% whilst in four wheels segment it

holds 65% and in two wheels segment it holds 38%.

Pharmaceuticals Sector

Under this sector Vet Pharma division of the company markets

animal healthcare products & animal feed components and

provide healthcare products for poultry industry. Brownscurrently dominates the veterinary pharmaceuticals industry

with a market share of 33%.

Business Solutions Sector

The integrated business solutions division provides a total

office automation solution for the corporate entities as per

their requirements. Accordingly this division markets

computers, copiers, faxes, projectors and LCD televisions.

Browns is the market leader of this industry with a stake of 

30%.

Electronics and Home Appliances SectorThe retail channel of the company is represented by this sector

which trades the products under all above sectors. Apart from

that electronic & home appliances are marketed in this

division.

Sugar & Ethanol Production

Moreover the company has ventured jointly into Galoya

Plantations with Lanka Orix Leasing Company Ltd for a stake of 

49% whilst the rest is owned by the government. By 2011 the

operations of the company is scheduled to commence and

sugar has been identified as the main product and ethanol will

also be produced as a bi‐product.

Source: Browns Annual Report, FY 09/10

Engineerin

g &

Hardware

16%

Power

Generatio

n

34%

Agriculture

32%

Pharmace

uticals

3%

Business

Solutions6%

Electronics

& Home

Appliances

9%

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Travel & Tours Segment

Browns Tours operates as general sales agent for three major

air lines & BG Air services provides inbound & outbound

package tours and all travel related services.

Finance Segment

Under this segment Browns’ fully owned subsidiary standard

finance carries out an investment portfolio which generates

dividend and interest income as their main revenue. It has a

27% stake in Browns Rubber Industries & 39% stake in

Associated Battery Manufacturers.

Plantations Segment

Browns has ventured into Maturata Plantations Ltd &

Pussellawa Plantations Ltd through Browns Investments. These

two companies own 31 tea estates, 9 rubber estates & 4 tea

cum rubber estates for a total capacity of 12.6 Mn Kgs of tea,

3.7 Mn Kgs of rubber & o.4 Mn coconut nuts. The existing minihydro projects located in these estates currently supply 3.2

MW for the national grid and they are in expansion for further

power production by 16.8 MW.

Figure 5 : Economic Indicators Overview of the Industries

 

The economy is reaching new heights driven by the post war

optimism and upturned global climate. The projected GDP

growth of the country is expected to bring high dividends to all

the sectors of the economy enhancing the living standards of 

the people. A new market has emerged due to the opening of 

North and East regions bringing new opportunities.

The demand for hardware, industrial and electrical tools &

accessories is highly dependable on the economic climate

prevailing. Expected developments in construction industry

and economy will bring a boosting factor to improve the sales

volumes. However the high import costs affected by global

row materiel prices of these products are directly affecting the

sales prices.

The boat building business is now witnessing an upturn

considering the reentering to a previously inaccessible marketof North & East which covers a major part of the coastal line

for the fisheries industry. However this industry is heavily

exposed to cheap used marine engines and duplicate spare

parts. The prices of diesel could create an indirect affect on the

demand for marine engines.

The demand for power generators is being moving up with the

improvement of new projects in the construction,

telecommunications and power & energy sectors. High value

generators are now experiencing a high demand over the

other segments.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Per Capita Income GDP Growth

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Construction

0

20

40

60

80

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Fishing Diesel Prices

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Source : Central Bank of Sri Lanka 

The radiator industry consists only two local manufactures and

other importers. The demand for radiators is expected to

enhance along with the growth of the vehicle population. The

industry is suffering from flood of used aluminum & plastic

radiator imports and unawareness amongst the customers.

The battery industry is projected to enjoy the opportunities

arose by the improved economic conditions and opening up of 

new markets of North and East. The increase in per capita

income is expected to improve the demand for non

automotive batteries and increase in new vehicle registration

is expected to improve the demand for automotive batteries.

However the fluctuations in the global lead prices; the main

raw material in producing batteries affects both the cost of 

production and the selling price. The battery industry is highly

affected by low priced products with inferior quality.

The developments in the production of agricultural productswill impact the tractor population to increase. This market

broadly segmented as four wheel tractors and two wheel

tractors. The industry was however further supported by the

government with the introduction of the AAIB Act. Moreover

the plantation support services business is also experiencing

an uptrend due to improvements in tea and rubber

plantations.

The market for veterinary pharmaceuticals & animal feed has

been showing a moderate growth as the standard of living of 

people has been considerably improving. The demand for

organic foods in this market is emerging creating newopportunities for vendors.

The market for corporate business solutions and electronics &

home appliances is also predicted to grow supported by the

upgrading of the standards of both the corporate and

household sector with the economic growth.

Travel related services are now anticipated for a positive move

despite of the adverse outcomes over past periods of time.

Apart from positive economic environment, government

promotions on tourism, positive travel advisory on Sri Lanka

have made the projections on the tourist arrivals to a highernote.

Being one of the largest tea exporters to the global market Sri

Lanka’s tea production is estimated for a moderate growth

owning to favorable weather conditions, efficient use of 

fertilizer & other inputs. However tea prices on average is not

expected to rise. Rubber is now experiencing very high price

levels due to global short supply, rising crude oil prices &

higher global demand whilst the rubber production also

predicted to increase with favorable weather & rising

productivity levels.

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.200.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Vehicle

Population

(Mn)

New Vehicle

Reg (Mn)

Vehi cle Polul ati on New Vehi cle Registrat ions

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

     J    a    n

     F    e     b

     M    a    r

     A    p    r

     M    a    y

     J    u    n

     J    u     l

     A    u    g

     S    e    p

     O    c    t

     N    o    v

     D    e    c

     J    a    n

     F    e     b

     M    a    r

     A    p    r

2010 2011

Tourist Arrivals

0

100

200

300

400

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Price LKRProd (kgMn)

Tea Production Avg Tea Prices

0

100

200

300

400

500

100

110

120

130

140

150

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Price LKR

Prod (kg

Mn)

Rubber Production Avg Rubber Prices

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Strategic marketing campaigns & more

value adding services

Strategized marketing moves like initializing Power Marts,

Lucas Premium Service Centers, Battmobile services & Auto

Rescue services, effective product support services through

staff training & communications, product promotions, service

campaigns, sponsorships and dealer motivations have also

contributed largely on gaining a higher portion. The company

is considering in providing a complete solution for their end

users by offering related accessories and support services

along with the products in order to confirm brand loyalty &

assure the market share. Further the company is maintaining a

good relationship with their suppliers, customers and

intermediaries and had taken proactive measures to build new

channels & strengthen current channels of these networks.

Browns is aggressively and strategically penetrating into

identified market segment especially North & East area.

Diverse clientele The company caters to individuals and institutional customers

including the government. Dealers as end users come undertheir retail channel. In certain sectors the company has made

agreements on supplying products. Arrangements are made

with projects initiated under Ministry of Fisheries, fisheries

organizations and Sri Lanka Navy. Power systems division has

agreed upon to supply generators to Central Hospitals. Browns

is the sole automotive battery supplier to all government

requirements as specified by the MOU signed with State

Trading Corporation. However the company is in a belief that

they do not face a threat of losing their major institutional

customers due to strong relationship their maintaining with

high quality, branded products and value added services.

Continuous product innovations Browns is diversifying its product portfolio through continuous

product innovations and product upgrades. BG Water pumps,

Lucas premium MF are some of latest additions to their

product range. Two new products are to introduce under each

product line in the hardware & power tools. Commercial

manufacturing of tractor trailers is to commence from current

year onwards. Automotive batteries, radiators are in the

process of introducing novel products. Fertilizer products are

to be introduced under agricultural division. Browns intends to

offer a complete package comprise of products, related

products & accessories for their customers.

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Figure 6 : YoY Price Appreciation of 

BRWN.N0000 

Investment Summary

 

We initiated a buy rating as we foresee the company’s ability

to generate high cash inflows through healthy revenue and

profit margins, strategic investment activities and equityfinancing activities. In our opinion Browns will have increases

in its key revenue sources mainly on increasing volumes due to

improved industry prospects and growing market shares. Being

dominated its key market segments company will not face

difficulties in price escalations of products whereas the

increases in cost of sales would not impact GP margins on

largely as they are capable of surpassing the cost increments

to end users. The increasing operational cost elements;

distribution costs emerge as a result of increasing volumes and

administration costs on high staff investments is expected to

bring down gross profits moderately. We arrived at a one year

price target of LKR 684.37 Which reflects a 77.53% upturn

from the current price level.

Browns future strategies are focused on continuous

investments into new business ventures. Accordingly they

have planned to enter areas of forestry, hotels & eco‐tourism

and real estate development. The accurate timing of entry and

exit of such venturing is expected to bring high inflow of funds

to the company. Apart from that the investment made on

Galoya Plantations is expected to generate cash inflows after

2011 with the commencement of production of sugar and

ethanol. Browns Investments has raised LKR 4,150 Mn of funds

issuing ordinary shares through a private placement. These

cash flows have also taken into account in the valuation.

Further this company intends to list its ordinary shares in CSE

through an initial public offer.

Figure 7 : Financial Highlights 

Financial Analysis

We have arrived our forecasts on the financial performance

and position of the company evaluating each subsector of its

business. Revenue is expected to witness favorable increases

in the coming years providing high GP margins of 27.63% on

average. Bottom line is expected to increase impressively

registering a growth of 42% in FY2011/12E. However we do

not anticipate an improvement in the net income to such an

extent in the following years.

The high operational performance is projected to deliver

excess cash to the company. Yet we believe that initiatives on

market share developments will incur a considerable amount

of capital expenditure and investments on working capital

would improve moderately. The asset base of the company

will expand along with the enhancement in the business lines.

We expect Browns to keep their leverage on existing levels as

they will enjoy increased reserves and cash surplus.

Source : Company Data & SMB Research 

0%

20%

40%

60%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000Revenue Revenue Growth

0%

10%

20%

30%GP Margin NP Margin

0%

10%

20%

30%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000Net Income ROE

0

20

40

60

0

200

400

600

800NAPS MPS EPS

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

FY

06/07

FY

07/08

FY

08/09

FY

09/10

FY

10/11E

FY

11/12E

FY

12/13E

Borrowings D/E Ratio

23 34%‐41%

388%

230%

33%

78% 684

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S

 

Revenue

Gross ProOperatin

Net Inco

Total Ass

PPE

Working

Total Equi

Borrowin

Revenue

GP Margi

EBIT Gro

OP Margi

NP MargiEarnings

EPS**

Adjusted

ROE

ROSF

ROA

Assets Gr

D/E Ratio

Current A

NAPS**

MPS

P/EPBV

*This inclu

** Adjuste

 

Figure 8

10%

FY06/07 0

B Securitie

 

F

fitProfit

e

ts

apital

ity

s

rowth

th

rowth

EPS**

wth

ssets

des the LKR 1.2 B

d for the existing

: ROE Breakd

7% 6%

13%

2

FY7/08

FY08/09

FY09/10

F10

NP Margin

s (Pvt) Ltd 

06/07 F

5,085

1,021532

524

8,532

2,477

254

5,298

1,501

13.71%

20.07%

5.14%

10.46%

10.30%74.90%

7.43

7.43

13.48%

13.60%

17.28%

89.47%

28.33%

1.10x

74.53

22.93

3.09x0.31x

n gain on selling

Issued Capital.

own of Brow

4% 23%19%

Y11E

FY11/12E

FY12/13E

 

07/08 F

5,797

1,244602

410

10,786

3,267

366

7,088

1,846

13.99%

21.47%

13.14%

10.38%

7.08%‐21.69%

5.92

5.92

6.62%

6.78%

11.04%

26.42%

26.04%

1.13x

99.93

30.74

5.20x0.31x

HNB Voting Sha

 

ns

13%

7%

FY

06/07

FY

07/08

78%

60%

FY06/07

FY07/08

X

Y 08/09

6,816

1,390861

413

15,706

5,983

(895)

9,331

2,664

17.58%

20.40%

43.20%

12.64%

6.06%0.75%

6.00

6.00

5.03%

6.48%

9.78%

45.62%

28.55%

0.79x

85.37

18.00

3.00x0.21x

es.(This has adj

 

5%

10%

21%

FY

08/09

FY

09/10

FY

10/11E

ROE

51% 52%64%

FY08/09

FY09/10

FY10/ 11E 1

Asset Turnover

K

Y 09/10 F

8,953

1,4911,644

1,148

18,591

7,041

371

13,458

1,918

31.35%

16.65%

90.85%

18.36%

12.82%177.80%

14.30

14.30

10.07%

12.95%

19.30%

18.37%

14.25%

1.13x

135.51

87.75

6.14x0.65x

sted in further c

**Intrinsic valu

25%21%

FY

11/12E

FY

12/13E

73% 73%

FY1/12E

FY12/13E

X

ey Financials

Y 10/11E

13,345

3,6684,593*

4,345*

23,312

7,227

2,098

16,319

2,657

49.07%

27.49%

106.41%

25.43%

23.57%173.99%

49.66*

35.95

21.13%

28.21%

33.17%

25.39%

16.28%

1.43x

179.14

289.80

8.06x1.62x

alculations to be

has taken as a

1.68

1.561.61

FY06/07

FY07/08

FY08/09

Equit

SMB

(LKR Mn) &

Y 11/12E

19,077

5,3684,867

4,473

29,131

9,613

2,622

19,809

3,496

42.95%

28.14%

43.43%

25.51%

23.44%42.20%

51.00

51.00

24.76%

25.03%

34.03%

24.96%

17.65%

1.45x

228.39

684.37***

 

13.42x3.00x

ter reflect the d

roxy for market

1.51

1.411.45

FY09/10

FY10/11E

FY11/12E

y Multiplier

esearch

9 | Page 

ey Ratios

Y 12/13E

23,436

6,3865,144

4,566

34,862

11,156

4,183

23,358

4,122

22.85%

27.25%

5.69%

21.95%

19.48%2.10%

52.07

52.07

21.16%

20.55%

28.88%

19.67%

17.65%

1.63x

278.46

716.07***

 

13.75x2.57x

ta)

price.

1.48

FY12/13E

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Figure 11 : Market PE & Sector PE Valuation Summary

 

We have reached our valuation taking industry growth

potentials & Browns’ performance into consideration and

using Free Cash flow method. Allowing for a terminal growthrate of 5.25% and an equity risk premium of 4.71% we have

maintained a cost of equity of 12.01% to comprise 85% of the

target capital structure. Cost of debt estimated to a 14%

considering the company’s borrowing costs and prevailing &

expected interest rates. Accordingly the stock currently carries

a future value of LKR 648.58 at a WACC of 12.31%. We

estimated an EPS of LKR 51.00 for FY2011/12E and a one year

forward P/E of 13.42x considering intrinsic value as a proxy for

the market price. Our projected NVPS for the same period is

LKR 228.39 which trades at a one year forward PBV of 3.00x.

We carried out a sensitivity analysis to identify the impact

changes in terminal growth rate and WACC to both the target

price and the twelve months target price of Browns.

Source : CSE Data 

Figure 9 : Sensitivity of Browns’ Target Price to Growth Rate and Cost

of Capital

Growth Rate

648.58 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Cost of 

Capital

10% 666.38 764.49 945.21 1107.87 1451.24

11% 587.81 660.73 787.54 894.07 1098.24

12% 510.43 562.59 648.58 716.53 836.97

13% 477.82 522.39 594.28 649.73 745.2314% 437.83 473.98 530.78 573.38 644.37

 

Figure 10 : Sensitivity of Browns’ Twelve Months Target Price to

Growth Rate and Cost of Capital

Growth Rate

684.37 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

Cost of 

Capital

10% 689.87 797.79 996.59 1175.51 1553.22

11% 608.93 689.87 830.64 948.88 1175.51

12% 529.21 587.80 684.37 760.68 895.96

13% 495.62 545.98 627.21 689.87 797.79

14% 454.41 495.62 560.37 608.93 689.87

 

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

     M    a    y      ‐

     1     0

     J    u    n      ‐

     1     0

     J    u     l      ‐     1     0

     A    u    g      ‐

     1     0

     S    e    p      ‐

     1     0

     O    c    t      ‐     1     0

     N    o    v      ‐

     1     0

     D    e    c      ‐

     1     0

     J    a    n      ‐

     1     1

     F    e     b

      ‐     1     1

     M    a    r      ‐     1     1

     A    p    r      ‐     1     1

     M    a    y      ‐

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ASPI Trading

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Figure 12 : Interest Rates & Inflation Investment Risks

 

•  The volatile economic climate may have adverse and

unpredictable impact on all the sectors. Unexpected slow

growth in economy can drive industry volumes to pacedown which will affect to top line figures.

•  The increases in vehicle importing taxes and duties

structure can have an effect on new vehicle registrations.

•  High inflation numbers could affect consumer demand to

decline by diminished purchasing power. In a situation

where interest rates to move upwards on compensating

inflation it will have negative effects on the borrowing

costs.

•  Company is vulnerable to volatile exchange rates as the

products being imported from overseas. Especially

fluctuations in the Japanese Yen will have impact on the

hardware, electrical goods and home appliances.•  As the company is engaged in different business lines and

segments an intense competition in its key areas of 

business could bring adverse effects to the company.

Source : Central Bank of Sri Lanka 

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

AWPR Inflation

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Research

Subhashi Jayasumana Milindha Rathnayaka Dhanushka Sammandapperuma

Ashna Hassim

 

Tel: +94 11 5733862

Sales & Marketing

Nadun Jayatilleke

(CEO)

Tel: +94 11 5539593

Mob: +94 712 769090

Sales Tel: +94 11 5733860

Lalith Sepalage Nuwan Perera Vino Ramasamy

Mob: +94 722 421003 Mob: +94 715 329609 Mob: +94 718 733725

Janak Dadallage Sampath Indike Kapila Weerasinghe

Mob: +94 715 329612 Mob: +94 715 329605 Mob: +94 715 329615

The information contained in this document has been compiled from sources that we believe to be reliable;

however we do not hold ourselves responsible for its completeness or accuracy. All opinions and estimates

included in this report constitute of our judgment to this date and are subject to change without notice.

Information contained in this document is not and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an

offer, to buy or sell any security or other financial instruments, and cannot be relied upon as a representation

for any particular transaction. SMB Securities (Pvt) Ltd or its affiliates and / or its directors, officers and

employees shall not be in any way be responsible or liable for loss or damage which any person or party may

sustain or incur by relying on the content of this document.

SMB Securities (Pvt) Ltd

No: 47, Dharmapala Mawatha, Colombo 03.

[email protected] www.smbsecurities.lk Tel:+ 94 11 5539593