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8/7/2019 Budget 2011-12_ Final
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"The budget should be balanced, the
Treasury should be refilled, public debt
should be reduced, the arrogance of
officialdom should be tempered and
controlled, and the assistance to and from
foreign lands should be curtailed, lest Rome
become bankrupt..."
-- Cicero , 55 BC
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HAS BUDGET ADDRESSED IMP ISSSUES
CONTENTSCONTENTS
MACROECONOMIC PARAMETERS
IMPACT ON OUR DAY TO DAY LIFE
IMPACT ON DIFFERENT CLASSES
CHALLENGES
IMPACT ON DIFFERENT SECTORS
WEAKNESS IN THE BUDGET
INVESTMENT DECISIONS TO CHANGE ?
CONCLUSION
OPPORTUNITIES
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MACROECONOMIC PARAMETERSMACROECONOMIC PARAMETERS
Fiscal Indicators - Rolling target as % of GDP (at Current market Price)
Particulars RE 2010-11 BE 2011-12
Target for
2012-13 2013-14
Revenue Deficit 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.1
Fiscal Deficit 5.1 4.6 4.1 3.5
Gross Tax Revenue 10.0 10.4 10.8 11.3
Total Outstanding
Liabilities
45.3 44.2 43.1 41.5
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MACROECONOMIC PARAMETERSMACROECONOMIC PARAMETERS
Comparison of MTFP with 13th FC Fiscal Roadmap (at Current market Price)
Particulars 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
Fiscal Deficit- MTFP
5.1 4.6 4.1 3.5
- 13th FC 5.7 4.8 4.2 3.0
Revenue Deficit
- MTFP 3.4 3.4 2.7 2.1
- 13th FC 3.2 2.3 1.2 0.0
Debt
- MTFP 45.3 44.2 43.1 41.5
- 13th FC 53.9 52.5 50.5 47.5
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CHALLLENGES BEFORE THECHALLLENGES BEFORE THE
FINANCE MINISTER FINANCE MINISTER
CRUDE PRICESCRUDE PRICES
GOVERNMENT BORROWING ANDGOVERNMENT BORROWING AND
EXPENDITUREEXPENDITURE
SUPPLY SIDE PROBLEMSSUPPLY SIDE PROBLEMS
CORRUPTIONCORRUPTION
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OPPORTUNITIESOPPORTUNITIES
Swift and broad based growth in 2010-11 has put the
economy back to its pre-crisis growth trajectory.
Fiscal consolidation has been impressive.
Significant progress in critical institutional reforms that
would set the pace for double-digit growth in the near
future.
Dynamism in the rural economy due to scaled up
flow of resources to the rural areas.
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IMPACT ON DIFFERENT IMPACT ON DIFFERENT
INDIVIDUAL CLASSESINDIVIDUAL CLASSES
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IS IT TRUE? IS IT TRUE? NO MORE F ILING OF TAX RETURNS FOR THE NO MORE F ILING OF TAX RETURNS FOR THE
SALARIED SALARIED
TheThe electronicelectronic filingfiling of of TaxTax
DeductionDeduction atat SourceSource
(TDS)(TDS) statementstatement hashas
stabilizedstabilized..
CategoryCategory of of salariedsalariedtaxpayerstaxpayers whowho willwill notnot bebe
requiredrequired toto filefile aa returnreturn willwill
bebe notifiednotified..
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Tax norms tightened for businessmenTax norms tightened for businessmen
To tax life insurance service providersTo tax life insurance service providers
Legal representation for businesses under Legal representation for businesses under
service taxservice tax
Service Tax on hotel accommodation aboveService Tax on hotel accommodation above
Rs.1,500 per dayRs.1,500 per day
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Senior citizens now a happier lotSenior citizens now a happier lot
³³Very Senior Citizen´ introducedVery Senior Citizen´ introduced: 80 years and above.: 80 years and above.
TaxTax exemptionexemption for income up tofor income up to RsRs 5.05.0 lakhlakh
Reduction of age limit :Reduction of age limit : from 65 years to 60 years.from 65 years to 60 years.
Tax exemptionTax exemption for income up to Rs 2.5 lakh (nowfor income up to Rs 2.5 lakh (now RsRs 2.42.4 l l ))
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Senior citizens now a happier lotSenior citizens now a happier lot
Eligibility under IEligibility under Indirandira GandhiGandhi National Old AgeNational Old AgePension Scheme,Pension Scheme, reducedreduced to 60 years from 65 years.to 60 years from 65 years.
Increase inIncrease in OAP from Rs.200 toOAP from Rs.200 to RsRs. 500. 500 p.mp.m for for
those of 80 years and above.those of 80 years and above.
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Education gets a BoostEducation gets a Boost
Allocation of Allocation of
RsRs..52,05752,057 crorecrore for for
education sector education sector
Increased allocationIncreased allocation
by 24%.by 24%.
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Mixed bag for HomemakersMixed bag for Homemakers
1% interest1% interest subsidy onsubsidy on
lowlow-- cost housing loanscost housing loans((uptoupto Rs 15 lakh for unitsRs 15 lakh for units
costing < Rs 25 lakhs)costing < Rs 25 lakhs)
Raise in service tax on air Raise in service tax on air
travel.travel.
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IMPACT ON DIFFERENT IMPACT ON DIFFERENT
SECTORSSECTORS
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AutomobileAutomobile: :
Positive as the central excise dutyPositive as the central excise duty
has been kept unchanged.has been kept unchanged.
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ITIT
Overall,Overall, thethe budgetbudget waswas NeutralNeutral forfor ITIT sectorsector..
LowLow keykey affair affair for for thethe SoftwareSoftware Sector Sector..
NoNo mentionmention aboutabout extensionextension of of fiscalfiscal benefitsbenefits under under
STPISTPI SchemeScheme for for ExportExport of of SoftwareSoftware Services,Services, whichwhich
isis duedue toto expireexpire inin FYFY20112011..
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InfrastructureInfrastructure
Continued stress on infrastructure developmenContinued stress on infrastructure developmen Allocation increased by 23%Allocation increased by 23% yoyyoy toto RsRs 2,14,0002,14,000 cr cr
which is 48.5% of the planned expenditure.which is 48.5% of the planned expenditure.
The tax benefit for The tax benefit for
investmentinvestment uptoupto
Rs.20,000Rs.20,000
Infrastructure BondsInfrastructure Bonds
has been extended byhas been extended by
one year.one year.
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Metals & MiningMetals & Mining::
ExportExport dutyduty onon exportexport of of ironiron oreore
raisedraised toto adad valoremvalorem 2020%% onon lumpslumps asas wellwell
asas finesfines..
NowNow :: 1515%% onon lumpslumps andand 55%% onon finesfines
³N egative news for iron ore exporters´ ³N egative news for iron ore exporters´
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PharmaPharma
³Neutral for the pharmaceutical sector´.³Neutral for the pharmaceutical sector´.
20% increased allocation to Ministry of Health &20% increased allocation to Ministry of Health &
Family Welfare (Rs.26,760Family Welfare (Rs.26,760 crorecrore from Rs 22,300 cr.)from Rs 22,300 cr.) No extension on weighted deduction on the inNo extension on weighted deduction on the in--househouse
R&D which stands at 200% and available tillR&D which stands at 200% and available till
FY2012 only.FY2012 only. H ighly disappointing H ighly disappointing PharmaPharma Cos. in R &Cos. in R &
D activities.D activities.
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Investors get a leg upInvestors get a leg up
Upped priority home loan limit to Rs 25Upped priority home loan limit to Rs 25
lakhlakh compared to Rs 20compared to Rs 20 lakhlakh..
10% excise duty on branded garments.10% excise duty on branded garments.
Likely to be dampener for this class.Likely to be dampener for this class.
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Capital GoodsCapital Goods::
No significant direct measuresNo significant direct measures
BUT hasBUT has PositivePositive signalsignal
Continued impetus to Infrastructure andContinued impetus to Infrastructure andPower Sector of the country.Power Sector of the country.
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OVERALL RATINGOVERALL RATING
HOMEMAKER HOMEMAKER 6/106/10
INDUSTRIALISTINDUSTRIALIST 8/108/10
SERVICESSERVICES 6/106/10
FARMER FARMER 8/108/10
UNEMPLOYEDUNEMPLOYED 5/105/10
SHOPKEEPER SHOPKEEPER 7/107/10
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IMPACT ON OUR DAY IMPACT ON OUR DAY
TO DAY THINGSTO DAY THINGS
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TVSTVS --SAME COSTSAME COST
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FRIDGE SAME COSTFRIDGE SAME COST
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WASHING MACHINE SAMEWASHING MACHINE SAME
COSTCOST
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CHEAPER PCSCHEAPER PCS
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CHEAPER ACCHEAPER AC
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MICROWAVE NO CHANGEMICROWAVE NO CHANGE
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COSTLIER MOBILE PHONESCOSTLIER MOBILE PHONES
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CHEAPER LAPTOPSCHEAPER LAPTOPS
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CHEAPER PRINTER CHEAPER PRINTER
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FAX MACHINESFAX MACHINES
PHOTOCOPIERS CHEAPER PHOTOCOPIERS CHEAPER
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CAMERA SAME PRICECAMERA SAME PRICE
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PROJECTORS NO CHNAGEPROJECTORS NO CHNAGE
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Cement is set to be dearer across the country byCement is set to be dearer across the country by
Rs 8Rs 8--9 per 50 kg bag9 per 50 kg bag
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SOLAR ENERGY SAME PRICESOLAR ENERGY SAME PRICE
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AIRFARE COSTLIER AIRFARE COSTLIER
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OUR EXPENDITURE OUR EXPENDITURE
OUR REVENUESOUR REVENUES
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Here's how the govt earns andHere's how the govt earns and
spends its rupeespends its rupee
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Govt. BorrowingsGovt. Borrowings
Good SignGood Sign:
:
Less borrowings by Govt. in 2011Less borrowings by Govt. in 2011--12 than FY 201012 than FY 2010--11.11.
Borrowings comprisesBorrowings comprises
GGross borrowings in 2011ross borrowings in 2011--1212
Estimated atEstimated at RsRs 4,17,0004,17,000 crorecrore ( nearly( nearly RsRs 40,00040,000 crorecrore,,
lower than current FY)lower than current FY)
29%
71%
2010-11
Borrowings27%
73%
0% 2011-12
Borrowings
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Why India will be world's No. 1 economy by 2050Why India will be world's No. 1 economy by 2050
As per Citi ReportAs per Citi Report ::
India will be world's largest economy byIndia will be world's largest economy by
2050,2050,
surpassing China and the United States.surpassing China and the United States.
In 2020In 2020 :: China should overtake US China should overtake US
&&
In 2050In 2050 :: India will OvertakeIndia will Overtake
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DOES BUDGET ADDRESSDOES BUDGET ADDRESSIMPORTANT ISSUESIMPORTANT ISSUES
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Budget attempts to address fourBudget attempts to address four
core issuescore issues
Improving fiscalconditions
Growth-relatedmeasures
PromotingEfficiency in
deliverymechanism &
reform measures
Attractingforeign capital
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Budget attempts to address four core issues ..Budget attempts to address four core issues ..
Improving fiscal conditions :Improving fiscal conditions :
IncreaseIncrease serviceservice taxtax revenuesrevenues byby 1818%% inin
FYFY1212 over over FYFY1111.. DueDue toto wideningwidening of of serviceservice taxtax netnet alongalong
withwith robustrobust growthgrowth of of thethe serviceservice sector sector
SignificantSignificant taxtax buoyancybuoyancy areare expectedexpected totogrowgrow grossgross taxtax revenuesrevenues byby aboutabout 2525%%..
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GrowthGrowth--related measuresrelated measures IncreasingIncreasing FIIsFIIs limitlimit inin infrastructureinfrastructure debtdebt
fundsfunds toto $$2525 bnbn,,
AttainingAttaining aboutabout 100100%% growthgrowth (over (over previouspreviousFYP)FYP) inin XIXI FiveFive Year Year PlanPlan outlayoutlay
IncreasingIncreasing infrainfra spendspend byby 2323%% andand
AimingAiming toto increaseincrease farmfarm creditcredit byby 2323%% areare
certainlycertainly propro--growthgrowth measuresmeasures..
Budget attempts to address four core issues ..Budget attempts to address four core issues ..
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Measures for promoting Productivity, Efficiency inMeasures for promoting Productivity, Efficiency in
delivery mechanism, containing inflation and reformdelivery mechanism, containing inflation and reform
In agricultural In agricultural sector and containing food crop inflationsector and containing food crop inflation
committee to look into expenditure management,committee to look into expenditure management, nutrientnutrient--based urea policy,based urea policy,
55--fold strategy to tap black money,fold strategy to tap black money,
increasing interest subvention for timely repayment of farm loans,increasing interest subvention for timely repayment of farm loans,
ITIT--backbone for the rural areas,backbone for the rural areas,
increased investments for cultivation of edible oil seeds,increased investments for cultivation of edible oil seeds,
direct transfer of subsidy through smart cards anddirect transfer of subsidy through smart cards and
significant investments in cold storage and warehouses for significant investments in cold storage and warehouses for agriagri--cropscrops
Budget attempts to address four core issues ..Budget attempts to address four core issues ..
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Attracting foreign capitalAttracting foreign capital
Proposal to allow foreign investments in equityProposal to allow foreign investments in equity
schemes of mutual funds,schemes of mutual funds, increasing foreign investment limit in infra debt funds,increasing foreign investment limit in infra debt funds,
firm policy guidelines for new banking licenses byfirm policy guidelines for new banking licenses by
Mar 2012 andMar 2012 and
decision to continue discussion on FDIsdecision to continue discussion on FDIs
Budget attempts to address four core issues ..Budget attempts to address four core issues ..
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LongLong--term visionary statements:term visionary statements:
Apart from concrete proposals,Apart from concrete proposals,
Certain positive longCertain positive long--termterm plans like accelerating theplans like accelerating the
share of industrial GDP in total GDP to 25% fromshare of industrial GDP in total GDP to 25% from
the current level of 16% in next 10 yearsthe current level of 16% in next 10 years,,
Improving agricultural productivity in the eastern partImproving agricultural productivity in the eastern part
of the country,of the country,
SStrengthening public debt management, etc.trengthening public debt management, etc.
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W EAKNESSES IN THE W EAKNESSES IN THE
BUDGET BUDGET
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WEAK N E SS E S I N T HE BUDG E T WEAK N E SS E S I N T HE BUDG E T
MAT rate should have been brought down to at least 10 per centMAT rate should have been brought down to at least 10 per cent
Given current inflation levels, the increase of personal taxGiven current inflation levels, the increase of personal tax
exemption limit will not even be noticed by many.exemption limit will not even be noticed by many.
At least investment limits for investment in longAt least investment limits for investment in long--term infrastructureterm infrastructure
bonds could have been increased,.bonds could have been increased,.
The missed opportunity relates to the goods and services tax, whichThe missed opportunity relates to the goods and services tax, which
MukherjeeMukherjee feels is being held hostage by politics, since statefeels is being held hostage by politics, since state
governments have to be on board to sign on.governments have to be on board to sign on.
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WEAK N E SS E S I N T HE BUDG E T WEAK N E SS E S I N T HE BUDG E T
ForeignForeign DirectDirect InvestmentInvestment (FDI)(FDI)
NoNo major major announcementannouncement inin further further liberalizingliberalizing
foreignforeign directdirect investmentinvestment (FDI)(FDI) eveneven after after thetheuncharacteristicuncharacteristic declinedecline seenseen inin currentcurrent fiscalfiscal.. InIn
particular,particular, therethere werewere nono announcementsannouncements onon multimulti--
brandbrand retailretail after after havinghaving detaileddetailed itsits potentialpotential
positivepositive impactimpact onon highhigh foodfood inflationinflation inin thetheEconomicEconomic SurveySurvey..
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FINE PRINTFINE PRINT
No Large Changes in Direct TaxesNo Large Changes in Direct Taxes
No Housing Loan Incentives (or disincentives)No Housing Loan Incentives (or disincentives)
Infra bonds to stayInfra bonds to stay
Surcharges reduced to 5%Surcharges reduced to 5%
Foreigners can invest in Equity MFsForeigners can invest in Equity MFs
Service Tax: You'll pay moreService Tax: You'll pay more
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CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
FINANCE MINISTER HASFINANCE MINISTER HAS
NOT DONE A BAD JOB ATNOT DONE A BAD JOB AT
ALLALL
THE PESSSIMISM IN THETHE PESSSIMISM IN THE
SYSTEM HAS BEENSYSTEM HAS BEEN
SUCKED OUTSUCKED OUT
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CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION
ATAT LEASTLEAST THETHE DIRECTIONDIRECTION ISIS CORRECTCORRECT THETHE JOURNEJOURNE
MIGHTMIGHT TAKETAKE AA LITTLELITTLE LONGER LONGER
SIGNALSSIGNALS AREARE POSITIVEPOSITIVE ININ AA MEDIUMMEDIUM ANDAND LONLON
TERMTERM BASISBASIS THOUGHTHOUGH SUBSIDIESSUBSIDIES AREARE AA BIBI
IMPEDIMENTIMPEDIMENT TOTO GROWTHGROWTH
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W HERE MUST YOUW HERE MUST YOU
INVEST INVEST NOW ?NOW ?
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WHERE MUST YOU INVEST NOWWHERE MUST YOU INVEST NOW
WITHWITH INTERSTINTERST RATESRATES HAVINGHAVING ALMOSTALMOST PEAKEDPEAKED
FDs,FDs, FMPs,FMPs, BONDSBONDS SHOULDSHOULD BEBE CONSIDEREDCONSIDERED
INVESTMENTINVESTMENT ININ QUALITYQUALITY DIVERSIFIEDDIVERSIFIED MUTUALMUTUAL
FUNDSFUNDS
STOCK STOCK MARKETMARKET± ±QUALITYQUALITY STOCKSSTOCKS AREARE
AVAILABLEAVAILABLE CHEAPCHEAP BUTBUT DON¶TDON¶T EXPECTEXPECT MIRACLESMIRACLES
INVESTINVEST ININ PROPERTYPROPERTY BELOWBELOW 2525K K ANDAND GOLDGOLD
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