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Budget Based Wargaming(BBW)
Decision Support Tool(DST)
R. Jay Roland, PhD
President, ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
Return On Investment;Software/Data/Budget
BBW = Budget Based Wargame Deriving cost elements from wargame scenarios to determine
cost of the campaign.
DST = Decision Support Tool A procedure to evaluate data resulting from multiple iterations of
the “wargame” being used to support corporate resource management decisions.
PURPOSE = Inform civil-military force management decisions
What Is BBW-DST?
December 2012 2© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
December 2012
A GenericBBW-DST Methodology
Output in $
ASimulation
Targets
New Decision Criteria
New/added information to make decision
SMEs & TTPs
1 2 n
Data
Forces
A Scenario
Less Expensive
?
No
SatisfiedNo
SimulationExperiments
3© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
1. Budget Based Wargaming (BBW) is a methodology.2. Decision Support Tool (DST) is a product of BBW.3. In simple terms it is:
December 2012
BBW-DST is a methodology and DST is a product
CAX
CK PNT
CK PNT
ENDEX
Accumulate Data!
Save Data.
Reuse Data.
4© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
THE RETURN ON INVESTMENT INCLUDES:
Software Data
BudgetInformed Force Reductions
A METHODOLOGY FOR A MULTIPLE ROI
Why is BBW-DST Important?
December 2012 5© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
Mandated Deficit Reduction Anticipated Additional ReductionsMajor Concern - Impact on Capabilities New Tools & Approaches – Critical!Does it matter what country or agency
you represent???
Why Is BBW-DST Important?
December 2012 6© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
Multiple Articles on BBW Studies
Academic issues Applications
Continued investigationsDefense News Examples
Rarely Applied
Multiple References
December 2012 7© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
Naval Postgraduate SchoolJTLS UsersNATO CAX ForumOSD Staff
Appreciation
December 2012 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation 8
How many have not heard or don’t understand what sequestration means to the US DOD?
How many believe it will not happen on 2 January?
Will it be delayed indefinitely?
How many are planning for it?
What’s different in your AOR?
Audience Data Collection
December 2012 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation 9
Software re-use. What’s the argument for / against?
Data re-use What’s the argument for / against?
Can we agree that an ROI is realized through re-use of software and data?
What if we add a tool to inform sequestration? Inform leadership concerning reduced budgets?
More Data Collection
December 2012 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation 10
Impact of Budget Cuts
October 2012 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation 11
ACROSS THE INTERNET AND ELSEWHERE:
Defense cuts are “forcing the military to alter its roles and missions.”
Boeing – major reduction expecting significant decline in defense spending, worldwide.
Reductions expected to be done without harming readiness??
Hard choices to be made about which weapon systems and troop levels to be reduced.
Extremely difficult choices that MUST BE MADE!
R. Roland, PhD. President, ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation www.ROLANDS.com; [email protected]
K. Robertson, PhD. President, Athena, Inc. [email protected]
A. Hernandez, PhD. Professor, US Naval Postgraduate School [email protected]
The BBW DST Team
October 2012 12© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
Defense News, 2012 US House – Defense Cuts Canada Cuts Air Defense, Anti-Armor Missiles Reduction In Funding Leads to Massive
Reduction Of Force Services Fight to Preserve Systems and
Capabilities
More articles/meetings/announcements/ …
Today’s News
December 2012 13© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
‘Sequestration’ looking increasingly likely, say
defense analysts”
Wall Street Journal, OCT 2012
SEQUESTRATION
“White House misses sequestration deadline; DoD will
see 11% cut”
The Federal Times, 7 September 2012;
Secretary of the Air Force Michael Donley
The threat of sequestration continues to overhang "all budget decisions across the federal government," said Secretary Donley during his keynote remarks at the 2012 Air Force Association Air and Space Conference and Technology Exposition.
The Christian Science Monitor, SEP 2012
Overall, the White House’s Office of Management and Budget outlined the $109 billion in spending cuts for 2013 as follows: • Hits to defense programs of either 9.4 percent or 10 percent, depending on how they receive their appropriations from Congress ($55 billion).
Budgets
December 2012 18© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
What & How Much Must Go?
December 2012
19© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
BUDGET CRISIS!
DEEP FORCE REDUCTIONS
Budget Based Wargame – Decision Support Tool
DEMAND SIGNAL FOR INCREASED ANALYSIS
RESOURCE ALLOCATION ISSUES
SEVERE FUNDING SHORT FALLS
DECREASED BUDGET
December 2012
Introducing BBW-DST…
20© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
DEEP FORCE
REDUCTIONS
SEVERE FORCE
REDUCTIONS
PEOPLE?
WEAPON SYSTEMS?
GROUND FORCES?
AIR ASSETS?
NAVY?
NGO AND OTHER
FUNDED AGENCIES
?
Where do you start? How do you decide? How do you maintain?
December 2012 21© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
December 2012
Data DataCAX
Game/Scenario Execution
ENDEXDATA
Typical CAX Execution
Scenario
SMEs
Data?
22© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
Select Simulation
Select Scenario
Quantify the Data
Execute, then Quantify the Scenario
Develop Experimental Design
Optimize Decision Space
Iterate CAX for Cost Effective Alternatives
Report
BBW-DST Approach
December 2012 23© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
December 2012
The BBW-DST Methodology
Output in $
ASimulation
Targets
New Decision Criteria
New/added information to make decision
SMEs & TTPs
1 2 n
DataForces
A Scenario
Less Expensive
?
No
SatisfiedNo
NPSExperimental
Design&
Analysis
24© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
1) Existing Wargaming Software
2) Low Cost / Low Risk Decision Support
3) Links CAX Results
4) Provides a Probability of Mission Success
5) Informs Military Operations, Programming, Budgeting, Manpower, Training & Capital Investment Decisions
BBW-DSTOperational Plan
December 2012
IDWargamingSoftware
25© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
Joint / Coalition Capable
Operational Level
Well Documented
Both Classified and Unclassified Data
Significant / Reasonable Number of Users
Federations
Data are available w/o extra expense
Simulation Selection Criteria
December 2012 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation 26
Civil-Military HierarchyDecision Levels
December 2012
Political
Strategic
Operational
Tactical
JTLS
27© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
December 2012
SMEs
JTLSCAX
InitialDatabase
Commander’s Intent/Game Objective
Strategy/TTPEmployed in Game
CKPNT 1; CKPNT 2
CKPNT 3; CKPNT n
ENDEX
DATA
CaptureCAX/Game DATA
BBW-DST Initialization
Scenario
28© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
NPS Simulation Experiments & Efficient Designs (SEED) Center
December 2012
Commander’s Intent/Game Objective
Strategy/TTPEmployed in Game
CKPNT 1; CKPNT 2
CKPNT 3; CKPNT n
ENDEX
CAX/Game DATA
Experimental DesignOptimization and EstimationData Visualization
To produce variables and TTPs for continued evaluation of lower cost solutions.
29© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
Methodology Overview:Post-Wargame Analysis
experimentation, efficient designs, and analysis.
Systems Engineering and Operations
Research CentricApproach
Simulation-independent
December 2012 30© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
December 2012
The BBW-DST Schema
Output in $
JTLS GAME
Targets
New Decision Criteria
New/added information to make decision
SMEs & TTPs
1 2 n
DataForces
A Scenario
Less Expensive
?
No
SatisfiedNo
SimulationExperiments
31© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
JTLS BBW-DST Benefits
December 2012
Supports Capability Based Assessments
Provides unbiased, quantitative/defensible data for budgeting
Quantifies Civil/Military Ops for investment decisions
32© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
JTLS BBW-DST Benefits
December 2012
Provides data for civil/military leaders to ID& prioritize capabilities and budgets
Correlates defense capabilities with budgets
Gaps Acquisition Strategies & Operational Requirements----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data and software reuse!
33© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
1) Methodology Refinement
2) Identify Candidate JTLS CAX
3) Collect pertinent data including scenario and TTPs
4) Select and quantify appropriate data
5) Develop / test experimental design
6) Re-run CAX from check point with new TTPs
7) Evaluate / report
Path Forward
December 2012 34© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
SOFTWARE
DATA COCOMS CLASSIFIED AND UNCLASS
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN PARALLEL SYSTEMS LOADING AND TESTING
SUPPORT OSD CONGRESS
SPONSORS WELCOME
SITREP DEC 2012
December 2012 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation 35
R. Roland, PhD. USAF LTCOL (ret.) President, ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation www.ROLANDS.com; [email protected]
K. Robertson, PhD. President, Athena, Inc. [email protected]
A. Hernandez, PhD. USA COL (ret.) Professor, US Naval Postgraduate School [email protected]
The BBW DST Team
December 2012 36© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
Budget Based Wargaming(BBW)
Decision Support Tool(DST)
Presenter
R. Jay Roland, PhD
President, ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
Return On Investment;Software/Data/Budget
Questions?
December 2012
Budget Based Wargaming
Decision Support Tool(BBW-DST)
38© ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation
