Budget and Fiscal TrendsBudget and Fiscal Trends

Prepared by the North Dakota Legislative Council Staffg

December 2011

www.legis.nd.gov/fiscal/recentreports.html

General Fund Revenues –Beginning Balance, Ongoing Revenues, and Transfers

$5 000 0Millions Average biennial ongoing revenues increase

from 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 15.4%Total

$4 294 5

Total $4,443.5

$1,179.7 $608.1

$3 500 0

$4,000.0

$4,500.0

$5,000.0 2011-13 biennial ongoing revenues increase is 3.1%

Total

$4,294.5

Total $3,010.8

$2,520.7

$2,753.0

$2,838.6

$157.8

$154.7

$194.6

$2 000 0

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

$3,500.0

Total $1,732.0

Total $1,911.7

$2,385.4

$295 5 $361 8

$996.8 $1,559.4 $1,739.1

$2,162.7 $110.4

$500 0

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$62.2 $14.8 $68.0 $295.5 $361.8

$0.0

$500.0

2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13EstimateActual Actual Actual Actual Actual Estimate

Beginning Balance Ongoing Revenues Transfers

Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual

2

General Fund Revenues – Major Revenue Types

$1 600 0Millions Actual average biennial sales tax increase

from 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 18.7%

2011-13 biennial sales tax increase is 9.1%

$1 046 5

$1,267.2

$1,382.2

$1,200.0

$1,400.0

$1,600.0

$640.6

$717.8 $841.9

$1,046.5

$587 7$681.7

$729.3

$541 0

$792.8 $800.0

$1,000.0

$396.2 $452.5

$587.7 $541.0

$434.3 $465.9 $500.8

$552.8 $522.2

$200 0

$400.0

$600.0

$88.4 $102.9

$232.3 $239.7 $234.4

$122.6 $0.0

$200.0

2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13EstimateActualActualActualActual Actual Estimate

Sales Tax Individual Income Tax Corporate Income Tax Others

ActualActualActualActual Actual

3

Total Oil & Gas Gross Production Tax and Oil Extraction Tax Revenues

MillionsTotal

$2,041.6

$682.3

$1 500 0

$2,000.0 Total $1,568.2

$612.5

$1,056.5

$1,000.0

$1,500.0

Total $352.6

Total $799.1

$205.9

$247.2

$242.1

$558.3

$500.0

Total $192.7

Total $119.7

$20.8 $33.4 $56.6$153.0

$305.8$499.6

$29.3 $38.8 $53.9$87.8$69.6

$120.5

$0.0 2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

E ti t dA t lA t lA t lA t l A t l Estimated

State Share Legacy Fund Political Subdivisions Special Funds

ActualActualActualActual Actual

4

State Share of Oil & Gas Gross Production Tax and Oil Extraction Tax Revenues

$1 200 0Millions

Total $1 056 6

$985.6

$1,000.0

$1,200.0 $1,056.6

Total $682.3

$487.3

$382.3

$600.0

$800.0

Total $242.1

Total $558.3

$300.0 $171.1

$400.0

Total $120.5

Total $69.6

$62.0 $71.0 $71.0 $71.0 $71.0 $7.6

$49.5

$0.0

$200.0

2001 03 2003 05 2005 07 2007 09 2009 11 2011 132001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13Estimated

Special Funds General Fund

ActualActualActualActual Actual

5

Appropriations – General Fund, Federal Funds, and Special Funds Appropriations

$4 236$4,500.0Millions 2011-13 biennial general fund

increase is 28.5%

$4,236.7

$3,682.2 $3,586.5

$3,500.0

$4,000.0

$4,500.0 Average biennial general fund increase from 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 18.0%

$2,574.3

$3,296.6

$1,930.3$2,132.2

$2,347.2

$2,494.7

$2,775.8

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

$1,728.6 $1,816.9 $2,000.5

$1,930.3 $ ,

$1,438.0 $1,555.0

$1,960.2

$1 000 0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$1,119.7 $1,157.5

$0.0

$500.0

$1,000.0

2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

General Fund Federal Funds Special Funds6

Appropriations – Ongoing and One-Time General Fund Appropriations

$4,500.0Millions Total

$4,236.7

$702.1

$3,500.0

$4,000.0

$4,500.0

Total $2,574.3

Total $3,296.6

$2,981.2

$3,534.6

$256.7

$315.4

$2,500.0

$3,000.0 Total

$2,005.518.6%

Increase

$2,317.6

$1 000 0

$1,500.0

$2,000.0 28.6% Increase

$0.0

$500.0

$1,000.0

2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

Ongoing One-Time Total7

Appropriations – Major General Fund Appropriations

$$1,400.0 Millions Includes property tax relief of $295.2 million

in 2009-11 and $341.9 million in 2011-13

$1,114.7

$1,244.0

$941 0$1,000.0

$1,200.0

$571.8 $604.8

$636.7

$715.5

$593.9

$652.1

$941.0

$657.8 $600.0

$800.0

$369.7 $411.1 $484.4

$367.0 $364.0 $389.6

$472.0

$593.4

$77 4 $83.5 $105.2$173.1 $167.1 $159.6

$200.0

$400.0

$77.4 $83.5 $105.2

$0.0 2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

K-12 Human Services Higher Education CorrectionsAverage increase-19.8%

2011-13 biennial increase-11.6%Average increase-15.4%

2011-13 biennial increase-44.3%Average increase-13.3%

2011-13 biennial increase-10.9%Average increase-23.8%

2011-13 biennial decrease-4.5%

8

Appropriations – Comparison of General Fund Appropriations and Total Personal Income

$67,325.0 $7 000 0$70 000 0

MillionsMillions

$51,791.0

$58,036.0 $6,000.0

$7,000.0

$60,000.0

$70,000.0

Personal income -Cumulative percentage increase 91.9%

$35,082.0

$39,038.0 $43,206.0

$3,296.6

$4,066.9 $4,000.0

$5,000.0

$40,000.0

$50,000.0

$1,728.6 $1,816.9 $2,000.5 $2,574.3

$2,000.0

$3,000.0

$20,000.0

$30,000.0

Appropriations -Cumulative percentage increase 135.3%

$1,000.0 $10,000.0 2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

%

Personal Income General Fund Appropriations

9

Higher Education – General Fund Appropriations and Tuition and Student Fee Revenue

$700 0Millions

Total Total $1 182 6

Total $1,304.4Average biennial tuition and fee

revenue increase from 2001-03 to

$593.4 $657.8

$491 1

$553.2

$589 2

$646.6 $600.0

$700.0

Total

Total $772.4

Total $880.7

$1,025.2 $1,182.62011-13 is 19.5%

$367.0 $364 0 $389.6

$472.0 $408.4

$491.1 $589.2

$400.0

$500.0 $642.0 University System estimates

$364.0 $389.6

$275.0 $200.0

$300.0

2011-13 biennial general fund increase is 10.9%

$0.0

$100.0 Average biennial general fund increase from 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 13.3%

2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

General Fund Appropriations Tuition and Fee Revenue10

Higher Education – General Fund Appropriations and Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Enrollments

$700.0 70,000 Millions

Includes $59.2 million of one-time funding for 2009-11 and

2011-13 biennial general fund increase is 10.5%

$593.3

$648.2

$

$600.0

$650.0

60,000

65,000 $42.4 million of one-time funding for 2011-13

$472.0

$450.0

$500.0

$550.0

45,000

50,000

55,000 Average biennial general fund increase from 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 13.3%

33,411 35,910 35,511 35,585

38,239 39,334 $367.0 $364.0

$389.6

$

$350.0

$400.0

35,000

40,000

33,

$200.0

$250.0

$300.0

20,000

25,000

30,000 Average FTE enrollment increase from 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 3.5%

Projected enrollment increase is 2.7%

2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

Average Annual FTE Enrollment General Fund Appropriations11

Higher Education – Resident Tuition Rates

$

$7,000

$3 996$4,375

$4,780 $5,019

$5,270 $5,455 $5,646 $5,964

$4 080 $4 223 $4,371 $4,480

$5,000

$6,000

$2 818$2,959 $3,107 $3,107 $3,107 $3,107

$2,929 $3,408

$3,996

$2 248$2,628

$3,086 $3,379

$3,701 $3,886 $4,080 $4,223

$3,000

$4,000

$1,788 $2,014

$2,413 $2,588

$2,818 $2,248

$1,000

$2,000

$0 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Two-Year Institutions Research Institutions Other Four-Year InstitutionsAverage annual increase-6.5%

Cumulative increase-73.7%Average annual increase-8.3%Cumulative increase-103.6%

Average annual increase-8.1%Cumulative increase-99.3%

12

Kindergarten Through Grade 12 –State School Aid and Other Grant Funding

$1,400.0 Millions Total

$1,282.9

Total $1,361.5

Average biennial total funds increase

2011-13 biennial total funds increase is 6.1%

$101 6$85.6$26.2

$299.4$341.8

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

Total $632.8

Total $669.0

Total $702.6

Total $789.2

Average biennial total funds increase from 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 21.4%

$$713.0

$811.5 $891.9 $67.2 $69.5 $71.6

$76.2 $86.3 $101.6 $85.6

$600.0

$800.0

$632.8

$565.6 $599.5 $631.0

$200.0

$400.0

$0.0

$

2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13Property Tax ReliefFederal and Other Special Funds (fiscal stimulus in 2009-11; education jobs and oil impact in 2011-13)State Tuition FundGeneral Fund - School Aid and Other General Fund Grants

13

Kindergarten Through Grade 12 –Teachers and Student Enrollment

120,000 12,000

110,000

115,000

11,000

11,500 Average annual personnel increase from 2002-03 to 2011-12 is 0.07%

Average annual enrollment decrease from 2002-03 to 2011-12 is 0.8%

103,013 101,137 99,324

97 120100,000

105,000

10,000

10,500

9,258 9,159

9 120 9 079 9 046 9 0839,228 9,264 9,307

97,120 95,600

94,057 93,405 93,715 94,729 95,778

90,000

95,000

9,000

9,500

9,120 9,079 9,015 9,046 9,083

80 000

85,000

,

8 000

8,500

,

Teachers Student Enrollment

80,000 8,000 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

14

Department of Human Services –General Fund and Total Funds Appropriations

$3 000 0Millions

$1 884 8

$2,290.4

$2,648.5

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

$1,417.1 $1,508.9

$1,680.1

$1,884.8

$1,097.9$1,184.6

$1,522.6 $1,593.5

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

$914.3 $1,010.8

$1,097.9

$369.7 $411.1 $484.4$593.9 $652.1

$941.0

$500.0

$1,000.0

$133.1 $87.0 $97.8 $106.3 $115.7$114.0

$0.0 2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

Total Funds Federal Funds General Fund Special FundsAverage increase-12.9%

2011-13 biennial increase-15.6%Average increase-13.9%

2011-13 biennial increase-4.7%Average increase-15.4%

2011-13 biennial increase-44.3%Average increase-(1.2%)

2011-13 biennial increase-(1.4%)

15

Department of Human Services – Medicaid Funding

$1 800 0Millions

Average biennial total funds increase from 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 15 0%

2011-13 biennial total funds increase is 17.6%

$1 114 8

$1,362.2

$1,601.9

$1,400.0

$1,600.0

$1,800.0 from 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 15.0%

$781.0 $891.1

$989.1

$1,114.8

$$675.4

$740.7

$953.9 $958.1

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

$566.6 $619.9$675.4

$214.4$271.3

$313.8$374.1 $408.3

$633.8

$200 0

$400.0

$600.0

$0.0

$200.0

2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

Total Funds Federal and Other Funds General Fund

16

Department of Human Services – Major Medicaid Costs

$459 6$500.0Millions

$343.0 $371.5

$425.7 $459.6

$341.5

$397.0

$350 0

$400.0

$450.0

$500.0

$295.1 $318.4

$211.6

$274.4

$198 4

$239.9$250.0

$300.0

$350.0

$164.1 $190.6

$90.2 $98.1$121.3

$153.2

$198.4

$66 3 $59 9

$99.6 $104.7

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$79.1 $95.2$66.3

$57.7 $50.9 $50.5$38.9

$48.3 $55.9

$59.9

$0.0

$50.0

2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

Nursing Homes Developmental Disabilities Hospitals Drugs Physicians

17

Department of Human Services –Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP)

72.82% 69 95%

75.00%

69.99% 69.87%68.36% 68.31%

67.49%65.85%

71.31%69.95% 69.95%

65.00%

70.00%

64.72%63.75% 63.15% 63.01%

60.35%60.00%

The enhanced FMAP included in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 of 69.95 was effective for the 2009 and 2010 federal fiscal years and the first quarter of the 2011 federal

55.40%

52.27%50.00%

55.00%q

fiscal year. The enhanced FMAP was reduced to 66.95 for the second quarter of 2011 and to 64.95 for the third quarter (which ended June 30, 2011).

40 00%

45.00% In 2013 the FMAP will be the lowest since 1979 when it was 50.71%.

40.00%2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FMAP Fiscal Relief FMAP Enhanced FMAP (ARRA)18

Department of Human Services – Nursing Home and Home and Community-Based Care Funding – Total Funds

$70 0$700 0MillionsMillions 2011-13 biennial increase for home

and community-based care is 3.6%

$63.9 $66.1

$60.0

$70.0

$600.0

$700.0

Average biennial increase from 2001-03 to 2009-11 for home and community-based care is 26.5%

$425 7

$459.6 $37.7 $39.8 $40.0

$50.0

$400.0

$500.0

$295.1 $318.4

$343.0 $371.5

$425.7

$26.1

$31.2 $30.0 $300.0 2011-13 biennial increase for

nursing home care is 8.0%

$

$10.0

$20.0

$100.0

$200.0 Average biennial increase from 2001-03 to 2009-11 for nursing home care is 9.6%

2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

Nursing Home Care Home and Community-Based Care19

Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation –General Fund Appropriations and Inmate Counts

2 000$200 0Millions

2011-13 biennial general fund decrease is 4.5%

Includes $41 million of one-time funding for 2007-09 and $22.5 million of one-time funding for 2009-11

$173.1 $167.1

$159.6

1 295 1,405 1 5281,600

1,800

2,000

$160.0

$180.0

$200.0 Average biennial general fund increase from 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 23.8%

$105.2

1,150

1,295 1,445 1,478

1,528

1,000

1,200

1,400

$100.0

$120.0

$140.0

$77.4 $83.5

$

400

600

800

$40 0

$60.0

$80.0

Average biennial inmate count increase f 2001 03 t 2009 11 i 6 6%

Estimated inmate count increase is 3.4%

0

200

400

$0.0

$20.0

$40.0

2001 03 2003 05 2005 07 2007 09 2009 11 2011 13

from 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 6.6%

2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13General Fund AppropriationsAverage Daily Inmate (Incarcerated) Count

20

Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation –FTE Positions and Inmate Counts

1 528

1,800 Average biennial inmate count increase from 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 6.6%

2011-13 biennial estimated inmate count increase is 3.4%

1,150

1,295 1,405 1,445 1,478 1,528

1 200

1,400

1,600

615 18 644.18 677.28 711.29 735.29 794.29

800

1,000

1,200

615.18

200

400

600 Average biennial FTE position increase from 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 4.6%

2011-13 biennial FTE position increase is 8.0%

0

200

2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

FTE PositionsAverage Daily Inmate (Incarcerated) Count

21

Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation –Inmate Counts

1,800 TotalTotal 1 405

Total 1,445

Total 1,478

Total 1,528

157 154 169 1671,400

1,600

1,800

Total 1,150

Total 1,295

1,405

1,291 1,309

1,361 109125

157

800

1,000

1,200

1,041

1,170 1,248

400

600

800

0

200

2001 03 2003 05 2005 07 2007 09 2009 11 2011 132001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13Average Daily Female (Incarcerated) CountAverage Daily Male Inmate (Incarcerated) Count

22

State Employees – Total FTE Positions (Excluding Higher Education)

9 1002011-13 biennium increase is 85.03FTE positions increase from

8,828.17

8,930.13

9,015.16

8 800

8,900

9,000

9,100 2001-03 to 2009-11 is 357.51

8,572.62 8 500

8,600

8,700

8,800

8,386.05

8,437.68 8,300

8,400

8,500

Increase of 390.49 includes 132.20 added to the Department of Human Services for state administration of

8,000

8,100

8,200 child support

2001-03 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

23

Major Direct Assistance to Political Subdivisions (Including School-Related Funding)

$3 000 0Millions

Total

$851.6

$2,500.0

$3,000.0

Total $1,889.8

$2,458.8

$

$684.4

$1,500.0

$2,000.0

Total $1,013.9

Total $1,093.8

Total $1,322.3

$638.3 $673.5 $814.5

$1,205.4

$1,607.2 $375.6 $420.3

$507.8

$500.0

$1,000.0

$0.0 2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

General Fund AppropriationsSpecial Funds Appropriations and Revenue Allocations

24

Major Direct Assistance to Political Subdivisions (Including School-Related Funding)

$3,000.0 Millions

Total $2,458.8

$104.2$190.0$120.3

$251.9

$2,000.0

$2,500.0

Total Total $1 093 8

Total $1,889.8

Total $1,322.3

$1 220 4$1,364.1 $103 5

$124.9 $136.1

$109 0 $121.6$141.2

$153.7 $142.4

$65 9 $76.9$107.6

$183.5$270.1$52.0$35.0

$80.5 $89.2$169.4

$1,000.0

$1,500.0 $1,013.9 $1,093.8

$685.2 $722.2 $800.6

$1,220.4 $73.3 $83.9 $103.5 $109.0 $121.6 $65.9

$0.0

$500.0

2003-05 2005-07 2007-09 2009-11 2011-13

Other Appropriations and Revenue AllocationsSelect Transportation Funding DistributionsDisaster Relief FundingCoal-Related and Oil-Related TaxesMotor Vehicle Fuel Tax and Registration Fee AllocationsState Aid Distribution FundsSchool-Related Funding (2009-11 and 2011-13 include property tax relief) 25