Building a New Foundation for Stability in Libya

8/19/2019 Building a New Foundation for Stability in Libya

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Building a New Foundation

for Stability in LibyaBy William Danvers March 2016

WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.O


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Building a New Foundationfor Stability in Libya

By William Danvers March 2016


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1 Introduction and summary

4 Making hard choices in the fight against ISIS

6 Putting Libyan politics back together again

8 Rebuilding Libya’s economy for the long haul

10 Recommendations

14 Conclusion

16 Endnotes

Contents


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1 Center for American Progress | Building a New Foundation for Stability in Libya

Introduction and summary

For almos five years, Libyans have sruggled o build a new poliical order

or heir counry ou o he wreckage lef by Moammar Gadhafi’s our-decade

dicaorship. Despie successul naional elecions in July 2012, poliical acions

backed by various miliias have sough power a he expense o heir rivals. As a

resul, Libya’s oil producion and, consequenly, is economy have collapsed along

wih any semblance o a pos-Gadhafi poliical order.1

Tis violen sruggle or power has creaed a securiy vacuum, filled in par by heIslamic Sae o Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, and various Al Qaeda-linked error-

is groups, such as Ansar al-Sharia. In he pas year, Libya has become a sraegic

locaion or ISIS. Due o coaliion miliary pressure, he group has old recruis o

head or Sire in Libya raher han say in Syria or Iraq.2 Te growing presence o

ISIS in Libyanow esimaed o oal as many as 6,500 fighers3represens a

direc securiy hrea o he Unied Saes and is allies in Europe, he Middle Eas,

and Norh Arica.

As his hrea grows more acue, he Unied Saes and is allies have been orced

o re-evaluae heir Libya policiesa process ha is sill underway. Since he 2014

breakdown o he pos-Gadhafi poliical order, he Unied Naions has led he

inernaional communiy in atemps o bring Libya’s warring poliical acions

ogeher under a naional uniy governmen. Te hope is ha he offer o help

rom he Unied Saes and oher counries o rebuild Libya’s governing insiu-

ions would provide an impeus or Libyans o come ogeher in a new, unified

governmen, srenghening Libya’s sovereigny and uniy as a resul. Tis is, how-

ever, a long-erm approach ha does no address he immediae challenges posed

by ISIS and oher erroris groups.

Libya oday epiomizes he complicaed siuaion he Unied Saes aces in devel-

oping and implemening a cohesive sraegy across he Middle Eas and Norh

Arica, or MENA, region. Te Unied Saes seeks o help counries produce sable

governmens wih poliical legiimacy and uncioning insiuions in he long


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erm. Bu shor-erm securiy hreas rom erroris groups and oher non-sae

acors ha require immediae responses make achieving he long-erm sraegy

more dauning. For example, acions aken o figh ISIS in Libya could undermine

diplomaic effors o orge a naional uniy governmen or build adequae govern-

ing insiuions. Similarly, delaying acion agains ISIS unil a Libyan naional

uniy governmen is ormed gives he group more ime o increase is reach inLibya, he region, and beyond.

Anoher issue ceners on how o define U.S. leadership and engagemen wih

oher counries ha have a sake and responsibiliy in Libya. Te Unied Saes

has ried o work cooperaively wih naions in he region and Europe in order

o suppor Libya. A imes, hese governmens have been slow o respond o he

challenges Libya presens and, in some cases, have aken seps ha are coun-

erproducive o addressing he shor-erm securiy hreas and long-erm goal

o producing a uncioning governmen. Te urgency o he momen in Libya

provides he U.S. wih an opporuniy o show resolve and leadership in building aproacive sraegy aimed a boh producing a new oundaion or long-erm sabil-

iy and addressing immediae hreas. aking acion now could help avoid he kind

o crisis he inernaional communiy currenly aces in Syria.

Tis repor offers several recommendaions in he areas o securiy, diplomacy,

and he economy ha he Unied Saes and is allies should underake in Libya.

Security

• Creae an inernaional Libya suppor group, or ILSG, ha wouldamong

oher hingscoordinae all securiy relaed effors, including airsrikes agains

ISIS and oher erroris groups; inelligence sharing; and possible deploymen

o roops in accordance wih inernaional law

• Prepare o help Libya rebuild is securiy insiuions

• Provide assisance o veted Libyan miliias in order o reake erriory rom ISIS

unil unified naional-level securiy insiuions can be esablished

• Increase suppor or securiy orces proecing oil aciliies

• Provide border conrol assisance o Libya’s neighbors, especially unisia


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Diplomacy

• Offer suppor and assisance hrough he G7 and G20 in order o incenivize

Libya’s poliical acions o agree o a naional uniy governmen

•Suppor civil sociey o help Libya esablish a uncioning, unified governmen

Economy

• Secure and inves in Libya’s energy secor o make i more compeiive

• Suppor job creaion, especially or youh and demobilized miliia members

• Develop he privae secor, including hrough working wih exising Libyan

economic insiuions

Te challenges in Libya require a long-erm approach, as well as a coordinaed

inernaional suppor and srucure. Te counry’s many problems will no be

solved overnigh. Te nex U.S. adminisraion will sill be dealing wih hese

issues. Te mos immediae concern or Libya, is neighbors, he Unied Saes,

and he European Union is he increasing erroris hrea in he counry, paricu-

larly ISIS.

I he Libyan people can come ogeher, suppor rom he Unied Saes and he

inernaional communiy should be subsanial and susained unil he economy

can be revived and a degree o sabiliy is esablished. I Libyans coninue heir

infighing, legiimae acors and he acions ha renounce exremism will require

suppor o couner he abiliy o erroriss o exploi he power vacuum. Eiher

way, he U.S. commimen o Libya will need o increase and coninue in order o

proec U.S. ineress and securiy.


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Making hard choices in the fight

against ISIS

Te mos immediae challenge acing he Unied Saes in Libya is he rise o ISIS.

Is ascen has coincided wih he conflic beween Libya’s wo main poliical ac-

ions: he Islamis-led Libya Dawn coaliion ha ook over ripoli in Augus 2014

and he inernaionally recognized governmen currenly residing in obruk. Te

obruk governmen is backed by he orces o “Operaion Digniy,” reired general

Khalia Hifar’s ani-Islamis campaign, which began in May 2014.4

ISIS announced is presence in he wesern coasal own o Derna in Ocober2014. Alhough local miliias drove he fighers ou o Derna because o ISIS’s dra-

conian ruling syle, he erroris organizaion regrouped and ook conrol o he

ciy o Sire in May 2015, drawing on he suppor o disgrunled Gadhafi loyaliss.

By some esimaes, ISIS presenly conrols as much as 180 miles o Libyan coas-

line near Sire.5 Tis srong ISIS presence along he Medierranean coas poses a

significan danger o Libya, is Norh Arican neighbors, and Europe. Te possibil-

iy o ISIS ploting atacks agains Americans rom Libya canno be ruled ou.

New ISIS recruis are increasingly direced o head or Libya raher han Iraq or

Syria. ISIS is also able o recrui deecors rom Al Qaeda-aligned Libyan acions

who see i as a viable alernaive.6 A he same ime, Libya is becoming a place o

reuge or ISIS leaders escaping he war in Syria and Iraq, making Libya an aler-

naive place o operaion or ISIS. Finally, oreign fighers rom unisia, Egyp,

Sudan, and Algeria have joined ISIS in Libya, since i is a closer desinaion han

he Levan and can offer a raining ground or ISIS operaives o expand opera-

ions in Norh Arica.7 Te recen expansion o ISIS in Libya reinorces is main

propaganda heme: I is enduring and expanding.

Te Unied Saes has underaken unilaeral counererrorism operaions in Libyao deend isel and is allies. American airsrikes killed an ISIS leader ouside

Derna in November 2015 and hi an ISIS raining camp in wesern Libya in

February 2016.8 Oher srikes have argeed Al Qaeda-linked leaders.9 Indeed,

he hrea o he Unied Saes and is allies rom Al Qaeda-linked groups such as

Ansar al-Sharia should no be overlooked. Bu ISIS represens he mos clear and

pressing danger o he Unied Saes and is parners.


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For he momen, he Unied Saes and is European allies are waiing or he

Libyans o orm a naional uniy governmen. Te hope is ha, once his gov-

ernmen is ormed, i will be able o coordinae wih he Unied Saes and he

European Union in fighing ISIS. While working wih a unified Libyan govern-

men is preerable, he Unied Saes and is allies may find hemselves in he

difficul posiion o being compelled by heir own securiy ineress o pursue amore aggressive approach agains ISIS in Libyawih or wihou a naional uniy

governmen. U.S. Secreary o Deense Ash Carer said he ormaion o a new

governmen was no a precondiion or he Unied Saes going ino Libya on is

own, adding, “We need o proec ourselves.”10 Hopeully, he Libyan people will

use his warning o possible unilaeral acion agains ISIS o suppor he ormaion

o a new governmen.

A more aggressive approach would likely be similar o he Obama adminisraion’s

counererrorism campaign in Iraq and Syria, including a combinaion o airsrikes

and special operaions raids in suppor o local orces ha are fighing ISIS on heground. U.S.11 and French special operaions orces are reporedly already on he

ground in Libya, indicaing a more robus campaign agains ISIS.12 Alhough a

more asserive securiy effor would no necessarily enail abandoning he ques

or a naional uniy governmen and poliical reconciliaion beween Libya’s wo

main acions, i would make i more difficul. A poenial risk in engaging miliias

o figh ISIS is he exacerbaion o exising rivalries beween armed groups or he

creaion o new ones. Noneheless, enlising veted local miliiasU.S. special

operaions orces are reporedly doing his already 13may be necessary as ISIS

becomes more o a hrea in Libya.


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Putting Libyan politics back

together again

Libya’s pos-Gadhafi poliical ransiion sared off well. In July 2012, elecions

were held, and a coaliion o relaive liberals ha made up he inerim ransiional

Naional Council deeaed Islamis paries led by he Muslim Broherhood.

Unorunaely, he new auhoriies ailed o adequaely disarm he miliias ha

had helped overhrow he Gadhafi regime or incorporae hem ino new securiy

insiuions. As a resul, Islamis paries were able o coerce significan concessions

rom he new parliamen and inimidae heir opponens,14 and Islamis mili-

ans linked o Al Qaeda ound hemselves able o operae reely across Libya. Inopposiion o Islamis groups, ormer General Khalia Hifar launched Operaion

Digniy in Benghazi wih he suppor o Egyp and he Unied Arab Emiraes in

May 2014.15

Te sruggle or poliical power beween Islamiss and heir opponens culminaed

in ripoli in Augus 2014. Libya Dawna coaliion o Islamis miliias backed by

urkey and Qaarunseaed he eleced parliamen by orce. Parliamenarians fled

o obruk o re-esablish hemselves as he House o Represenaives, or HoR, rec-

ognized inernaionally as he legiimae governmen o Libya.16 Operaion Digniy

allied isel wih he HoR in opposiion o he General Naional Congress, or GNC.

Te GNC remained in ripoli under he conrol o Libya Dawn and is allies.

Te U.N. Suppor Mission in Libya, or UNSMIL, has been working wih boh

sides o he Libyan poliical divide in an effor o find common ground. Te

ouline o a U.N. plan o orm a uniy governmen was announced in Skhira,

Morocco, in he summer o 2015, and in December 2015, he Unied Naions bro-

kered a deal in an atemp o ge hese wo groups o paricipae in a Governmen

o Naional Accord, or GNA.17 Te ramework or esablishing a GNA involves

seting up a presidency council ha consiss o a prime miniser and depuies, as well as minisers. Te council would be largely responsible or securiy, including

commanding he Libyan army. However, here are already fissures in suppor or

he new governmen. One example is a recen HoR voe agains a uniy govern-

men, alhough here was anoher HoR voe in suppor o he overall ramework


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o he U.N. agreemen supporing a poliical ransiion or Libya.18 Giving he

securiy responsibiliy o he council is a major roadblock or he HoR and Hifar

supporers, who believe Hifar and Operaion Digniy should be in charge o secu-

riy.19 For is par, he GNC expelled a group o is members ha signed he U.N.

agreemen, saying hey had no auhoriy o do so.20

As imperec as he U.N. process has been, i is he mos organized o all endeavors

o pull ogeher a pos-Gadhafi Libya. Te signing and implemenaion o he U.N.

sancioned plan o esablish a GNA is an essenial par o rebuilding Libya, as well

as fighing ISIS. I is clear ha here mus be acive and susained suppor rom he

Unied Saes and oher supporers o Libya in order or he U.N. effor o succeed

in orming a unified governmen. Coninuous high-level engagemen wih key

Libyan poliical acors is necessary. I means making sure ha all sides undersand

here will be help or a new Libyan governmensecuriy, poliical, and eco-

nomici Libyans can ge behind he U.N. effor. Tis would include inegraing

he inernaional communiy’s counererrorism effors as par o he overall efforo work wih and assis a new governmen.


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Rebuilding Libya’s economy for the

long haul

Libya’s poliical and securiy crises have crippled he counry’s economy. Oil

producion has allen rom a pos-Gadhafi high o 1.4 million barrels a day o he

presen producion o approximaely 400,000 barrels a day, and he inormal value

o Libya’s currency has dropped by more han hal.21 In 2016, Libya’s gross domes-

ic produc, or GDP, is expeced o conrac 8 percen, making i he world’s wors

perorming economy.22 Youh unemploymen in Libya was esimaed o be as high

as 50 percen in a 2014 Arican Developmen Bank repor.23

Libya’s economy is almos enirely dependen on is energy indusry. Oil and

gas revenues accoun or 80 percen o he counry’s GDP, 95 percen o is

expor revenue, and 99 percen o is governmen revenues. 24 As a Wes Poin

Combaing errorism Cener repor pu i, “Wihou oil here are no jobs.

Wihou oil here is no ood.”25

Despie severe securiy and poliical problems, Libya sill possesses some unc-

ioning insiuions on which o base a revialized economy. Te Naional Oil

Corporaion, or NOC, or insance, has a uncioning inrasrucure, alhough

is aciliies have been under atack. Given he cenral role energy plays in Libya’s

economy, i will be criical o proec his inrasrucure while he counry’s polii-

cal acions resolve heir differences.

In addiion o he NOC, Libya has wo oher uncional economic insiuions:

he Cenral Bank o Libya and he Libyan Invesmen Auhoriy, or LIA.26 Tese

insiuions should be kep as poliically independen as possible in order o sup-

por pos-conflic reconsrucion. Te cos o Libya’s inrasrucure needs is $200

billion over 10 years according o World Bank esimaes.27

Over he long erm, Libya will remain unsable as long as i lacks a uncioning

economy and a privae secor able o provide jobs and income o is ciizens.

Te LIA board has developed a comprehensive plan or economic sabiliza-

ion ha includes effors o build insiuions ha can suppor a more diverse

economy. Te crux o he problem or Libya is ha i has no privae secor o


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speak o, which is necessary o creae jobs and oser economic growh. In a

recen inerview, Hassan Bouhadi, chairman o he LIA said, “Te privae sec-

or was virually desroyed over he las 30 years, especially during he 1980s

and 1990s because o he socialis ideals o Gaddafi … I was difficul o open a

barber shop, le alone have a acory or a law firm. Te privae secor is weak and

needs suppor and unding.”28

Bouhadi has indicaed he wans o use some LIAasseswhich, according o some sources, oal $67 billiono jump-sar he

Libyan privae secor.29 He wans o develop public and privae parnerships and

diversiy he Libyan economy so ha i is no solely dependen on hydrocarbon

asses and producion.30

Rebuilding Libya’s ailing economy will ake resources and commimen on he

par o he Unied Saes and is allies. Tis will necessarily involve no only gov-

ernmens bu also inernaional organizaions and he privae secor. I canno be

done, however, unless he Libyans firs accep and implemen he U.N. agreemen.

Tere can be no rebuilding o Libya wihou a unified Libyan governmen. Te

U.N. agreemen o orm a unified governmen should be viewed as a firs sep in

helping Libya, and preparaions should be made o moivae paries o suppor

he U.N. plan. Ulimaely, Libya’s success or ailure is in he hands o he Libyan

people. Tey need inernaional help, bu he decision o orm a governmen and

creae new insiuions ha are responsive o he people is up o hem.


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Recommendations

While Libya is in crisis poliically, economically, and miliarily, here is an oppor-

uniyalbei a narrow oneha could begin o change he counry’s course.

Te firs order o business is o deal wih he growing hrea o ISIS. I would be

bes o do ha wih a new, unified Libyan governmen, bu he possibiliy remains

ha he Unied Saes and ohers will sep up heir figh agains ISIS direcly i

necessary. Geting he U.N. agreemen in place is also a requisie or helping Libya

rebuild poliical insiuions, as well as is economy. Te Unied Saes and oher

concerned naions should make a firm offer o assisance i he Libyans can comeogeher poliically. Below are some general recommendaions o how o deal wih

securiy problems, paricularly ISIS, as well as wha could be done o help a new

Libyan governmen.

Security, the fight against ISIS, and rebuilding Libya’s military

Te success o Libya’s poliical process will help o deermine boh how he

Unied Saes and is allies can engage ISIS in Libya and how hey help Libya build

is own inernal securiy srucure. Ideally, ani-ISIS effors could be coordinaed

wih a naional uniy governmen, bu his prioriy mus be balanced agains he

need or immediae miliary acion in order o preven ISIS rom becoming more

enrenched in Libya. Te Obama adminisraion has righly signaled is inenion

o scale up operaions agains ISIS arges.31 I is now aced wih he delicae ask

o finding parners on he ground o figh ISIS in a way ha does no undercu he

poliics o governmen ormaion. o achieve his balance, he Unied Saes and

is allies should ake he ollowing seps:

•

Create an international Libya support group. While he Arican Union, or AU, and Unied Naions have groups working o help Libya, he Unied Saes

should call or he creaion o a ILSGsimilar o he Inernaional Syria

Suppor Groupin order o have a regularized orma or high-level consula-

ion and coordinaion. Te ILSG would, among oher hings, esablish a Libyan


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securiy-coordinaion mechanism o ensure he effeciveness o he inerna-

ional sraegy o deea ISIS in Libya. Working wih he miliary leadership o

is paricipans, he ILSG would coordinae airsrikes, inelligence, and special

operaions aciviies in Libya in accordance wih inernaional law. I should also

be he main poin o conac or veted miliias who will join he figh agains

ISIS and ake charge o raining and assising a Libyan naional miliary in hefigh agains ISIS in he even ha a uniy governmen is ormed. Te ILSG

would also make cerain here is no geopoliical compeiionamong MENA

naions in paricularin Libya, which could undermine he figh agains ISIS

and Libya’s effors o orm a uniy governmen.

• Prepare to help rebuild Libya’s security institutions. Tough he Unied Saes

and is European allies canno depend on Libya’s poliical acions o come

ogeher o proec heir own securiy, hey can begin heir planning o help

rebuild Libya’s securiy insiuions i and when a naional uniy governmen

invies hem. Careul planning will be needed in order o build a se o insiu-ions ha can boh ake on ISIS and remain unified naionally. Special atenion

will need o be paid o he demobilizaion and reinegraion o miliias, as well as

o orces charged wih securing he counry’s oil inrasrucure and borders.

• Support assistance to vetted Libyan militias. Te Unied Saes and oher

members o he ILSG should careully coordinae limied assisance o miliias

and oher irregular orces o comba ISIS. Te effor should ocus on miliias

ha have a paricular incenive o figh ISIS and have been veted by U.S. Special

Forces. Te immediae goal should be o help hese groups deend heir erriory

and sop ISIS expansion. Any assisance should be provided wih a careul eye

on he balance o power among he miliias and he corresponding effec on he

naional poliical process. Again, his suppor should be somehing he Unied

Saes and is parners coordinae wih a poenial uniy governmen.

• Increase support for security forces protecting oil facilities. Te Unied Saes

and is allies should prioriize coordinaing and supporing Libyan oil-field secu-

riy orces ha can proec oil aciliies rom ISIS.

•

Provide more effective border-control aid for neighbors. Te Unied Saesand is allies should also assis Libya’s neighbors in beter conrolling heir bor-

ders wih unding, raining, and echnical assisance. Given he large proporion

o milians i has produced and he erroris atacks ISIS has already claimed

here, unisia should be a op prioriy. In addiion, counries on Libya’s souh-

ern border should also be given suppor or border securiy in order o help

reduce illici smuggling ino Libya.


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Diplomatic support of conflict resolution, functional politics, and

institution building

An effecive diplomaic sraegy or he crisis in Libya would operae on muliple

levels. A he naional level, he Unied Saes should coninue is suppor or he

U.N.-led effor o help Libyans broker a naional uniy governmen. A a regionallevel, he compeiion or power should be minimized. A he inernaional level,

mulilaeral bodies and bilaeral donors should maximize he incenives or

Libyans o reach a setlemen. o his end, he Unied Saes and is allies should

ake he ollowing specific seps:

• Offer an incentive package from major economies. Working hrough he G7

and G20 and in coordinaion wih oher inernaional effors, he Unied Saes

and is allies can provide echnical and economic suppor as an incenive or he

Libyans o orm a new governmen. Tis effor would also involve inernaional

financial insiuions such as he World Bank and he Inernaional MonearyFund.

• Support civil society. A he same ime, he Unied Saes and he European

Union should help Libya develop a vibran civil sociey once here is a uniy

governmen. raining programs could be provided by organizaions such as

he Naional Democraic Insiue; he Inernaional Republican Insiue;

he Inernaional Insiue or Democracy and Elecoral Assisance; and he

Organizaion or Economic Co-operaion and Developmen, or OECD, ouside

o Libya unil he securiy siuaion improves inernally.

Creation of a long-term economic plan

Economic sabiliy has wo key componens in Libya: sabilizing he oil and gas

indusry and diversiying he economy. Tere is litle hope o Libya having a unc-

ioning economy wihou a unified governmen. Noneheless, he Unied Saes

and is parners could offer a plan o help Libya rebuild and diversiy is economy.

In urn, i could be used as leverage o gain suppor or a new governmen. Te

plan could include he ollowing acions:

• Secure and invest in the oil industry. As noed above, he firs order o busi-

ness is o secure Libya’s peroleum inrasrucure agains ISIS. Inernaional

invesmen and echnical assisance will be required o repair and modernize

he oil and gas secor. Libya’s NOC will have an imporan role in securing he

privae invesmen necessary o mee his goal.


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• Support job creation. Job creaion should be a prioriy in Libya. Privae-secor

job creaion programs will be required or ormer miliia members and young

people in paricular. Te Unied Saes and oher donors should provide echni-

cal and financial assisance or micro-enerprise programs in order o srenghen

he small-business secor. By using bilaeral and developmen bank resources

and a model such as he Grameen Bank o susain capial or small- and micro- businesseshe inernaional communiy can oser job creaion and suppor

he developmen o he privae secor.

• Develop the private sector. Over he long erm, Libya mus develop a diverse

privae secor. Ta means creaing incenives or businessespecially small-

and medium-sized enerpriseso develop. Tis will require echnical assis-

ance and invesmen. Inernaional organizaions such as he World Bank,

regional developmen banks, and he OECD are bes placed o help wih his

effor. Te LIA can ake he lead in helping o und and coordinae such an

underaking wih inernaional financial insiuions.

Looking ahead, he Unied Saes and is allies should develop a susained sraegy

ocusing on securiy, insiuion building, and he Libyan economy. I is clear ha

while he preerence o he Unied Saes and is parners is o work wih a new

Libyan governmen in he figh agains ISIS, hey may need o join he batle even

i here is no agreemen. For heir par, he Libyan people should ge behind he

U.N. agreemen o orm a unified governmen so ha hey can ake advanage o

he assisance he inernaional communiy is offering.


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Conclusion

Libya is a ailing sae, bu i has no ye ully collapsed. Te U.N. agreemen

signed in December 2015 is he key o Libya’s survival as a naion. I offers a road

map o a unied Libya. Te Libyan people have o decide wheher hey can accep

his or any plan ha will bring hem ogeher as a naion.

Te process o rying o reach an agreemen on he implemenaion o he U.N.

deal is complicaed by he growing hrea o ISIS. Failed saes and poliical and

securiy vacuums creae problems beyond heir immediae environmen. A ailedLibya will be no excepion. I will increasingly become a haven or erroriss and

criminals. Assising Libya now wih is securiy, is poliical insiuions, and is

economy would have posiive consequences or he Unied Saes, he European

Union, and MENA naions. Policymakers have an opporuniy o develop and

implemen a sraegy ha responds o he immediae hrea o ISIS and he longer-

erm goal o helping Libya rebuild. Te imely and crucial suppor o Libya would

no only preven is collapsei would also enable he Unied Saes and oher

concerned governmens o proec heir own ineress in boh Libya and he

region a large.32


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About the author

William Danvers is a Senior Fellow a he Cener or American Progress, where he

works on a range o naional securiy issues. Danvers has worked on naional secu-

riy issues or 34 years in he execuive branch, Congress, various inernaional

organizaions, and he privae secor. Prior o joining he Cener, Danvers was heSaff Direcor o he Senae Foreign Relaions Commitee or Sen. John Kerry

(D-MA) and worked a he Naional Securiy Council and Sae Deparmen

during he Clinon adminisraion. He also worked a he CIA, Deparmen

o Deense, and Sae Deparmen during he Obama adminisraion. In addi-

ion, he served as depuy secreary-general o he Organizaion or Economic

Co-operaion and Developmen, or OECD, in Paris where he was responsible or

relaions wih nonmember naions, including regional programs in he Middle

Eas, Eas Asia, and elsewhere.


19/20


Endnotes

1 Haythem Rashed, “Libya Reaches Most Critical JunctureSince Gaddafi’s Fall,” Financial Times, January 11, 2016,available at http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bf016c28-b5f4-11e5-8358-9a82b43f6b2f.html.

2 Eric Schmitt, “U.S. Scrambles to Contain Growing ISIS Threat in Libya,” The New York Times, February 21, 2016,available at http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/22/world/africa/us-scrambles-to-contain-growing-isis-threat-in-libya.html.

3 Ibid.

4 Frederic Wehrey, “Is Libya Headed for Another Qad-dafi?”, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace,October 1, 2015, available at http://carnegieendow-ment.org/2015/10/01/is-libya-headed-for-another-qaddafi/iie9.

5 The Economist, “The Third Front,” February 6, 2016,available at http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21690030-it-time-take-action-against-islamic-state-libya-third-front.

6 Andrew Engel, “Libya’s Civil War: Rebuilding the Coun-try from the Ground Up” (Washington: The WashingtonCenter for Near East Policy, 2015), available at http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/ResearchNote25_Engel4.pdf.

7 Ibid.

8 Sudarsan Raghavan, Missy Ryan, and Brian Murphy,“U.S. strike on Libya camp escalates campaign againstIslamic State,” The Washington Post, February 19, 2016,available at https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/reports-airstrikes-target-suspected-islamic-state-base-in-libya/2016/02/19/e622c12a-d6f7-11e5-be55-2cc3c1e4b76b_story.html

9 Missy Ryan, “U.S. planes target al-Qaeda veteran inLibya,” The Washington Post, June 14, 2016, availableat https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-strike-targets-veteran-militant-linked-to-algeria-hostage-attack/2015/06/14/f701152a-12d8-

11e5-9518-f9e0a8959f32_story.html?tid=a_inl.

10 Paul D. Shinkman, “U.S. Commandos Expand Anti-ISIS War into Libya,” U.S. News and World Report,January 29, 2016, http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/us-commandos-expand-anti-isis-war-into-libya.

11 Ibid.

12 Paul Taylor, “French specia l forces waging ‘secret war’in L ibya,”Reuters, February 24, 2016, available at http://www.reuters.com/article/us-libya-security-france-idUSKCN0VX1C3.

13 Shinkman, “U.S. Commandos Expand Anti-ISIS War intoLibya.”

14 Brian Katulis and Peter Juul, “The Real Scandal in Libya:

A Security Vacuum and New Terrorist Threats,” Centerfor American Progress, May 15, 2013, available athttps://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2013/05/15/63501/the-real-scandal-in-libya-a-security-vacuum-and-new-terrorist-threats/.

15 Christopher M. Blanchard, “Libya: Transition and U.S. Policy”(Washington: Congressional Research Service, 2015), avail-able at http://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33142.pdf.

16 Borzou Daragahi, “Libya: From Euphoria to Breakdown.”In Ben Fishman, ed., North Africa in Transition: theStruggle for Democracies and Institutions (London: TheInternational Institute for Strategic Studies, 2015).

17 Kareem Fahim and Suliman Ali Zway, “Libya’s RivalFactions Sign Deal for Unity Government,” The New YorkTimes, December 18, 2015, available at http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/18/world/africa/libya-unity-government.html?_r=2.

18 Ibid.

19 The Economist, “The Next Front against the IslamicState,” February 4, 2016, available at http://www.econo-mist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21690057-lib-yas-civil-war-has-given-caliphate-fresh-opportunities-western-military.

20 Associated Foreign Press, “Libyan Lawmakers Sackedfor Signing U.N.-Backed Unity Deal,” February 3, 2016,available at http://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/2016/02/03/Libyan-lawmakers-sacked-for-signing-UN-backed-unity-deal-.html.

21 Rashed, “Libya Reaches Most Critical Juncture SinceGaddafi’s Fall.”

22 Ibid.

23 African Development Bank, “Libya: Country Re-Engagement Note 2014–2016” (2014), available athttp://www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Docu-ments/Project-and-Operations/Libya_-_Country_Re-Engagement_Note_2014-2016.pdf.

24 Geoff D. Porter, “Terrorist Targeting of the Libyan Oiland Gas Sector,” Combatting Terrorism Center at WestPoint, February 27, 2015, available at https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/terrorist-targeting-of-the-libyan-oil-and-gas-sector.

25 Ibid.

26 International Crisis Group, “The Prize” (2015), available at

http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/Middle%20East%20North%20Africa/North%20Africa/libya/165-the-prize-fighting-for-libya-s-energy-wealth.pdf.

27 The World Bank Middle East and North Africa Region,“The Economic Effects of War and Peace” (2016),available at http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2016/01/29/090224b08411afee/2_0/Rendered/PDF/The0economic0ef-fects0of0war0and0peace.pdf

28 Matt Smith, “Libyan sovereign fund aims to reviveprivate sector,” Reuters, September 8, 2015, availableat http://uk.reuters.com/article/libya-swf-interview-idUKL5N11E3J920150908.

29 Ibid.

30 Ibid.

31 Yaroslav Trofimov, “Libya Will Need American Helpto Defeat Islamic State, General Says,” The Wall Street Journal , February 29, 2016, available at http://www.wsj.com/articles/libya-will-need-american-help-to-defeat-islamic-state-general-says-1456776041?mod=itp&mod=djemITP_h.

32 Brian Katulis, “3 Reasons Obama Should Pay Attentionto Libya,”The Wall Street Journal , June 14, 2014, avail-able at http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/06/04/3-reasons-obama-should-pay-attention-to-libya/.

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