Bullion Metals

7/29/2019 Bullion Metals

1/12

Week : 03rd to 09th Aug 2013

Analyst Speak

Bullion Remained SidewaysFor The Entire Weak.


2/12

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ECONOMIC DATA

Weekly Report | Page 2 Week : 03rd to 09th Aug 2013

Date Time Currency Forecast Previous

MonAug 5

7:30pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 53.2 52.2

TueAug 6

6:00pm USD Trade Balance -43.1B -45.0B

7:30pm USD JOLTS Job Openings 3.83M

USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 47.9 47.1

10:30pm USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks

WedAug 7 8:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.4M

10:30pm USD 10-y Bond Auction 2.67|2.6

ThuAug 8

12:30am USD Consumer Credit m/m 15.3B 19.6B

6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 336K 326K

8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 59B

10:30pm USD 30-y Bond Auction 3.66|2.3

FriAug 9

7:30pm USD Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.5% -0.5%


3/12

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FUNDAMENTAL MARKET


OVERVIEW

West Texas Intermediate Crude dropped, paring a weeklyadvance, as U.S. employers added fewer workers thananticipated last month.Futures fell as much as 1.3 percent on Crude oil futures trimmed gains on Wednesday, after a reportLabor Department figures showing that payrolls rose 162,000 in from the U.S. government showed that oil supplies roseJuly, the smallest gain in four months. A 185,000 increase was unexpectedly last week.The U.S. Energy Informationthe median forecast of 93 economists surveyed by Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. Crude oilBloomberg.WTI Crude for September delivery declined 92 inventories rose by 0.4 million barrels in the week ended Julycents, or 0.9 percent, to $106.97 a barrel on the NYMEX prices 26, disappointing expectations for a decline of 2.3 millionare headed for a 2.2 percent gain this week. Crude oil rose 2.7 barrels.Concern over supply disruptions in Iraq, Libya and

percent to $107.89 yesterday, the most since July 10 and the Nigeria prevented heavier losses.Libya's oil exports continuedhighest close since July 19. to flow at less than half normal rates on Friday as strikes and

protests shut major oil terminals in the North African OPECproducer - triggering one of the worst disruptions in the pastyear.These outages helped trim OPEC output to a four-monthlow in July, a Reuters survey published on Wednesdayshowed.OPEC output averaged 30.25 million barrels per day(bpd), down from 30.38 million bpd in June.

FUNDAMENTALS

Copper rose to its highest level in more than a week on Friday,as optimism about the outlook for the global economy gatheredpace, with U.S. labour market data due later in the session Three-month Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose inlikely to provide further direction for industrial metal intraday trade to its highest since July 24 at $7,050 a tonne. Itprices.Markets have been supported this week by a statement traded at $7,020 a tonne , up from a last bid of $6,998 a tonneby the Federal Reserve that the U.S. economy continues to on Thursday. The metal used in power and construction is onrecover but is still in need of support, offering no signs that it is track to rise 2.5 percent for the week, its first gain in threeplanning to curb its bond-buying stimulus at its next meeting in weeks. It registered a monthly gain of 1.9 percent in July.NickelSeptember.The European Central Bank (ECB)affirmed interest miners are clinging to plans to maintain production, despite arates could fall further from record lows.Non-farm payrolls were growing supply glut and prices around four-year lows, raisingexpected to have risen by 184,000 in July, with the jobless rate the risk of more writedowns and losses being unveiled in theseen ticking down to 7.5 percent. current financial reporting season.Nickel, untraded in official

rings, was bid at $13,870 from a close of $13,895 on Thursday.Tin, also untraded in official rings, was bid at $20,825 from

$20,920. Aluminium, untraded in rings, was bid at $1,817 from$1,812.Zinc traded at $1,872 from $1,855, and Lead traded at$2,123 from $2,106.

INVENTORY

Gold rebounded on Friday as the dollar dropped after mixedsignals about the U.S. labour market quashed prospects theFederal Reserve will start tapering its stimulus as early as Spot Gold gains 1.5 percent to $1,312.56 an ounce, bringingnext month. Losses over the past five sessions pushed Gold losses this week to around 1.8 percent. Gold fell earlier totowards its worst weekly performance in a month. Strong $1,283.29 - its lowest since July 19.Holdings in SPDR Goldjobless benefits and factory activity data, along with better- Trust, the world's largest Gold-backed exchange-traded fund,than-expected U.S. GDP numbers, bolstered the case for a fell 0.7 percent to 921.05 tonnes on Thursday, hitting freshstimulus wind-down. four-year lows.Outflows from the top eight Gold ETFs tracked

by Reuters have totalled 19 million ounces so far this year, orabout $25 billion at current prices.Physical demand has heldup reasonably well despite the volatility in prices.

FUNDAMENTALS

GOLD HEADS FOR BIGGEST WEEKLY LOSS IN A MONTH

CRUDE OIL SLIPS AS U.S.JOB DATA DISAPPOINTS,BUT ENDS WITH 2.2% WEEKLY GAIN

COPPER FUTURES RALLY TO 1-WEEK HIGH AFTER EURO ZONE, CHINA PMI DATA


4/12

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WeeklyChart

Last week COMEX Gold is technically Consolidating on charts.Gold rebounded on Friday as the dollar dropped

after mixed signals about the U.S. labour market quashed prospects the Federal Reserve will start tapering its

stimulus as early as next month.

GOLD(DECEMBER)

ExpertOpinion

ExpertOpinion

GOLD HEADS

FOR BIGGESTWEEKLY LOSS

IN A MONTH

Script

Levels

R3

1423

R2

1367

R1

1340

PP

1311

S1

1284

S2

1255

S3

1199

MARKETOVERVIEW


For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy.If COMEX Gold sustains below the level of $1310 an

ounce,then below $1285 it can test the level of $1270/$1255/$1240 an ounce. And in MCX, If Gold October future

sustains below 27600 then below 27400 it can test the level of 27200/27000/26800.Trade by keeping the strict stop

losses.

Major support in COMEX Gold is $1250 and $1210.Major resistance in COMEX Gold is $1380 and $1440.

Major support in MCX Gold is 27000 and 26400.Major resistance in MCX Gold is 29000 and 29800.

Supports & Resistance

WORK

STRATEGY


5/12

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WeeklyChart

COMEX Silver was technically consolidating on charts.Silver COMEX for September delivery was down by 2.30%

at $19.990 a troy ounce on Friday. Silver ended with weekly gains of more than 2.5 %.

SILVER(SEPTEMBER)

ExpertOpinion

ExpertOpinion

SILVER FUTURES

BOUNCES ON

WEAK U.S. JOBSREPORT,TRIM

GAINS

Script

Levels

R3

2192

R2

2086

R1

2040

PP

1980

S1

1934

S2

1874

S3

1768

MARKETOVERVIEW


For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy. If COMEX Silver sustains below the level of $20.20

an ounce, then below $19.50 it can test the level of $19.00/$18.50/$18.00 an ounce. And in MCX, If Silver

September future sustains below 41200 then below 40600 it can test the level of 40100/39600/39100.Trade by

keeping the strict stop losses.

Major support in COMEX Silver is $18.00 and $17.20.Major resistance in COMEX Silver is $21.40 and $22.20.

Major support in MCX Silver is 39000 and 37600.Major resistance in MCX Silver is 44000 and 45200.


WORK

STRATEGY


6/12

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WeeklyChart

Last week NYMEX Crude oil was in consolidation range.Crude dropped, paring a weekly advance, as U.S.

employers added fewer workers than anticipated last month.Crude prices are headed for a 2.2 percent gain this

week. Crude oil rose 2.7 percent to $107.89 yesterday, the most since July 10 and the highest close since July 19.

CRUDE(SEPTEMBER)

ExpertOpinion

ExpertOpinion

Script

Levels

R3

118.32

R2

112.25

R1

109.69

PP

106.18

S1

103.62

S2

100.11

S3

94.04

MARKETOVERVIEW


For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy. If NYMEX Crude sustains below the level of $106.00

a barrel, then below $104.80 a barrel it can test the level of $103.60/$102.40/$101.20 a barrel and in MCX if Crude

August Contact sustains below 6480 then below 6430 it can test the level of 6380/6330/6280 in this week. Trade by

keeping the proper stop loss.

Major support in NYMEX Crude oil is $103 and $100.Major resistance in NYMEX Crude oil is $111 and $114.

Major support in MCX Crude oil is 6350 and 6200.Major resistance in MCX Crude oil is 6780 and 6900.


WORK

STRATEGY

CRUDE OIL SLIPS

AS U.S.JOB DATA

DISAPPOINTS,BU

T ENDS WITH

2.2% WEEKLY

GAIN


7/12

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WeeklyChart

Last week, Copper COMEX was consolidation on charts.Copper rose to its highest level in more than a week on

Friday, as optimism about the outlook for the global economy gathered pace, with U.S. labour market data due later

in the session likely to provide further direction for industrial metal prices.

COPPER

ExpertOpinion

ExpertOpinion

COPPER FUTURES

RALLY TO 1-WEEK

HIGH AFTER EURO

ZONE, CHINA PMI

DATA

Script

Levels

R3

347.41

R2

330.41

R1

324.22

PP

313.41

S1

307.22

S2

296.41

S3

279.41

MARKETOVERVIEW


For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy. If COMEX Copper sustains below the level of $318,

then below $312 it can test the level of $307/$302/$297.In MCX, Copper August Contract sustains below 425 then

below 420 it can test the level of 415/410/405 in this week. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

Major support in COMEX Copper is $305 and $295.Major resistance in COMEX Copper is $330 and $340.Major support in MCX Copper is 410 and 400.Major resistance in MCX Copper is 440 and 450.

Support and Resistance

WORK

STRATEGY

(SEPTEMBER)


8/12

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WeeklyChart

Last week U.S Natural gas was consolidating on charts.Natural gas futures added to losses on Thursday, tumbling

to the lowest level since February after a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that

natural gas supplies rose more-than-expected last week.

NATURALGAS

(SEPTEMBER)

ExpertOpinion

ExpertOpinion

NATURAL GAS

FUTURES TUMBLETO 5-MONTH LOW

AFTER U.S.

SUPPLY DATA

Script

Levels

R3

3.707

R2

3.549

R1

3.453

PP

3.391

S1

3.295

S2

3.233

S3

3.075

MARKETOVERVIEW


For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy. Next week If NYMEX Natural Gas sustains below the

level of $3.400 then below the level of $3.300,it can test the level of $3.250/$3.200/$3.315.In MCX, If Natural Gas

August sustains below the 208 level then below 203 it can test the level of 198/193/188 in this week. Trade by

keeping the proper stop loss.

Major support in NYMEX Natural Gas is $3.100 and $2.8000.Major resistance in NYMEX Natural Gas is $3.800 and $4.100.

Major support in MCX Natural Gas is 190 and 180.Major resistance in MCX Natural Gas is 220 and 230.

Support and Resistance

WORK

STRATEGY


9/12

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WeeklyChart

Last Week USD/INR was consolidating on charts. The INR fell to a record closing low on Friday, posting its worst

week in 22 months, raising concerns the central bank is losing the battle to prop up the currency while the

government has yet to take any meaningful measures to bring in inflows.

USD/INR

ExpertOpinion

ExpertOpinion

INDIAN RUPEE

AT RECORDCLOSING LOW;

WORST WEEK

IN NEARLY 2

YEARS

Script

Levels

R3

64.807

R2

62.567

R1

61.703

PP

60.320

S1

59.463

S2

58.087

S3

55.847

MARKETOVERVIEW


For the next week traders can use sell on higher level strategy.Next Week If USD/INR sustain below 61.000 then

below 60.2000 it can test the level of 59.700/59.200/58.700 in this week. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

For the upcoming week 58.5000 and 57.0000 will act as crucial supports and 62.0000 and 63.2000 will act as

crucial resistance in USD/INR.

Support and resistance

WORK

STRATEGY


10/12

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WEEKLY MARKETUPDATE


INTERNATIONAL MARKETUPDATE

COMMODITY CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

GOLD 1317.15 -0.67

SILVER 19.92 0.96

COPPER 3.15 -9.22

CRUDE 107.16 2.79

NATURAL GAS 3.315 -10.89

USD/INR 60.79 2.51

SYMBOLEXCH

ANGEEXPIRYDATE

COMMODITYNAME

PRICE UNIT

PREVCLOSE

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

CLOSE

QTYTRADED

NETCHANG

E

OPENINTEREST

WEEKLYTURNOVER (Rs. in Lakhs)

GOLD MCX 05 OCT -2013

GOLD

RS. /10GM.

27500

27473

28676

27385

28047

141311

547 12200 3179821.88

SILVER MCX 05 SEP -2013

SILVER

RS. / KG.

41050

40881

42600

40651

41969

158455

919 9467 1970079.17

COPPER MCX 30 AUG -2013

COPPER

RS. / KG.

408.35

408.4

432.3

406.4

428.2

300581

19.85 22566 1259475.59

CRUDE OIL MCX19 AUG -2013

CRUDE OIL

RS. / BBL.

6199

62026637

6186

6523

570074

324 49704 3016501.68

NATURAL GAS MCX 27 AUG -2013

NATURAL GAS

RS./ MM BTU

212.9

212.6

213.2

203.7

204.6

214175

-8.3 12260 558671.05

LEAD MCX 30 AUG -2013

LEAD

RS. / KG. 122.2

122.2

130.25

121.7

128.95

62451

6.75 8471 396093.74

ZINC MCX 30 AUG -2013

ZINC

RS. / KG.

109.2

109.6

113.95

108.75

113.15

32643

3.95 3245 182560.34

NICKEL MCX 30 AUG -2013

NICKEL

RS. / KG. 825.3

826.6

858

818

850.9

79797

25.6 6141 167824.65

ALUMINIUM MCX 30 AUG -2013

ALUMINIUM

RS. / KG.

105.95

106.15

110.25

105.8

109.25

22722

3.3 2796 123208.59


11/12

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CommodityExpiryDate

ClosingPrice

%Change

Weekly Gainers

CommodityExpiryDate

ClosingPrice

%Change

Weekly Loser

LEAD 30 AUG-2013 128.95 5.52 NATURAL GAS 27 AUG-2013 204.6 -3.89

CRUDE 19 AUG-2013 6523 5.22

WEEKLY PIVOTS

WEEKLY MARKETUPDATE

COPPER 30 AUG-2013 428.2 4.86

SCRIPTS R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

GOLD 30435.67 29144.67 28322.33 27853.67 27031.33 26562.67 25271.67

SILVER 45331.67 43382.67 42216.33 41433.67 40267.33 39484.67 37535.67

COPPER 467.48 441.58 424.97 415.68 399.07 389.78 363.88

CRUDE 7242.67 6791.67 6495.33 6340.67 6044.33 5889.67 5438.67

NATURAL GAS 228.93 219.43 216.17 209.93 206.67 200.43 190.93

LEAD 141.82 133.27 127.73 124.72 119.18 116.17 107.62

ZINC 121.03 115.83 112.52 110.63 107.32 105.43 100.23

NICKEL 913.77 873.77 849.53 833.77 809.53 793.77 753.77

ALUMINIUM 116.23 111.78 108.87 107.33 104.42 102.88 98.43


12/12

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