THE

BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE

__ c_s_-9_6------------- «n~ NOVEMBER 194-~

COTTON, ALL KINDS: WORLD SUPPLY, CONSUMP"(ION, AND CARRY-OVER, 1920-43

BALES* (MILLIONS)

50

40

30

20

10

0 1920 1923 1926 1935 1938

YEAR BEGINNING AUGUST

*AMERICAN IN RUNNING BALES (COUNTING ROUND BALES AS HALF BALES): FOREIGN IN BALES OF APPROXIMAt'ELY 478 POUNDS NET

TREND LINES BASED ON INTER- WAR PERIOD

1941 1944

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG 43915 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

De<>pite the uptrend in the world consu111ption of cotton during the inter-war period, production increased s I i ght I y more rapidly, with the resu 1t that the carr v-over of cotton, >~hich was equivalent to only about 35 per:;entofthe total supply from 19LO through 1924-, ~as risen to about ~5 oercent of the ~atarially larger supply during the past fe>~ years. The increase in the carry-over tp a record level during the war period resulted largely from the Axis control of important consuming areas. In these areas the marked exoansion of synthetic fiber production in recent years is likely to greatly reduce import require­ments for cotton.

COTTON, AMERICAN: WORLD SUPPLY, CONSUMPTION, AND CARRY-OVER, 1920-43

RUNNING r-·------,--------,-------,--------,-------,--------,-------,--------, BALES

(MILLIONS)

25

20

15

10

5

0 1923 1929 1932 1935 1938 1941 1944

YEAR BEGINNING AUGUST

TREND LINES BASED ON INTER-WAR PERIOD

U.S DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 39553 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

The world carry-onr and oupply of .American cotton inoreaoed 111&tariall7 between 1920 and the outbreak of the current war and the total supply, which fol'lllllr;Ly -• about one-third larger than oonaumption, has been about double conounption oinoe l9S7. T.bio 1o ID indication of the extent to w.bich con111mption has been running below production deopi- cldwm!ard trend in pro­duction.

During the war years the high le""l of domoatio ooniNIII[>tion offoet llll&ller oon-ption in foreiga countries. Profitable alternoti'fto to ootton produetion in the form beth of good priceo tor competing crops and of fa'IOI"ablo ott-form omplo;plent opportunitieo ha.., pn'ftntod

, · an upewing in pi'Ocluotion -in Jteoponse to the higher level of prices, and the oarcy-over baa been about unchanged in reoent years. The oarry-over, however • my turn upward ill Tiew ol the declining level of domeotio oonoumption ond the poosibility tlat the high level of oupport will stimulate increased produetion in the early poat......r period.

COTTON. FOREIGN: WORLD SUPPLY, CONSUMPTION, AND CARRY-OVER, 1920-43

BALES* (MILLIONS)

25 Supply

20

15

10

5

0 1920 1923 1929 1932 1941 1944

YEAR BEGINNING AUGUST *BALES OF 418 POUNDS TREND LINES BASED ON INTER-WAR PERIOD

U 5 DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE NEG. 39554 BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

Up to tho outbreak ot World 1IILr II tha tre11d1 in ouppl7 and oon-ption of foreiga cotton bad been olarpl7 upward oinoe 1920. !here -• aloo a oligbt upward trend in oarey-cmor, but the ratio ot oarcy-owr to total auppl7 remoinod rolati'ftl7 otable. For tba period ao a 'lll>ole, therefore, tba balaneo between produetion and ool18\11Ption •• maintained even tlllnach on a conerally ~ ooale.

During world war II o.,_ption deoline4 ao a oonoequenoe of the looo of I"!!Ort outleto. !he oarey-o..,r ot toreiga ootton, wbioh wo about ltt aHlion baleo, on .Luguat 1, 19"• or nearl7 twice ao larce ao at the becinning of the war, 1o lilllll7 to inorouo apin thi• -on.

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T H E C 0 T T 0 N S I T U A T I 0 N

T8ble of Contents

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The Exp.ort .Sales Program ~ ••........••.......•••...• : ...........•• ·· . • 3 Cotton Export Sales Progr<.m ·.h._nnounced; Export Sales Price 4 Cents Per-Pound Under Domestic Market Price ••• ~................ 3

The Domestic ,Cotton Situation • • • • • • •.• • • •.• • • • • • • • • •• • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • 5 , Spot .Cotton Prices i>Teak:en; Farm Price Above , · Parity for First Time· Since April 19h3 ••.•••••.•.••••.• ·•••.•••••• 5 DaflY.- Consuinption Rate Down in October; Equivalent to · . Annual Rate of 9.4 Million :Bc:>'l'es' •• .' .••••••••••• , ••••••••••• •..... 5

G-innings .!f'.re-i;ting 1942 l"nd 1943. Despite Lc>.rger Crop This Year . • • • • 5 Staple Continues ~onger with Grade Lower TbRn Last Season......... 6 Picking Rates Averar;e .. $1.92 ner 100 Pounds for Certain

Cotton; Highest on Recer·d • ~ ••••••• ·•·•••••••••••••••••••.••••.••••• 6

The World Supply· Situation ••••••••.••••••••• , • • • • • • • • . . . • • • • • • . . . . • • 7 Little Change in the World Position of American Cotton............ 7 World Consumption of Foreign Cotton About Unchanged in·l9h3_44;

Carry-DV'er on August 1, 19il4,' at New High........................ 7 World Consumption of All Kinds of Cotton Lcn<Test Since 1931;

Car:vy-Over Largest on Record •••••••••••.••••••.•••.•..•.... .-...... 8

Tables . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Statistical Summary . • • . • • • • • • • • . • • • . • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • . • • . . • • 9 Cotton, Unland: Grade and stau1e of sinnings through October 31, by State~, 1943 and 1944 •••• ~. ~.................................. 10

Cotton, a1l:kinds: Ginnings before October 31 and quantity re3aining to be ginned after that aate, by States, 1942-44 ••••.•• 11

Average wage rates for picking 100 pounds of ·seed cotton, by States, 1925-44 •••••••.••.•.••...•••••••..•..••••••••• -............ 12

Cotton, American. foreign, and all kinds: \Jorld supnly P.nd· consumpt:i,.on, 1934-38. averFJ.ge, nnnual i939-44 • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • 13

THE EXPORT Sa.LES PROGB.t\}1

Catton Export Sales Program Announced; Exnort S~les Price ~ Cents per Pound Under Domestic l11iarket Price ·

Nove~ber 18, 1944

-In accordance with -provisions of the Surplus Property Act of 1944, an

export sales progra..-·n has been developed for cotton which currently provides for a 4 cent per pound differential between domestic market prices (basis Group·~ warehouse--locRtions) and the nrice at which cotton 1.ftril1 be sold for export. The program became effective at 3 P.M. 1\led.nesday, November 15, 1944, and 811 cotton sold for export under this program must have been exported before January 1, 1946. -

NOVEMBER 1944 - 4-

In announcing the exnort nrogram, it \nras stated that its primary nurpose is to make American-grown cotton availaole to foreign ouyers on a price basis corrmarallle l,rith that at "~Arhich f'thcr exporting countriee are making cettr-n availA.ole in 1.,rorld markets. It was pointed out that the War Food Administra"'­tion had voiced.assurance.to.other exporting countries that the United States has no intention of precipitating mutually-injurious nrice comnetition in the world cotton markets •......

Inasmuch.as.the.legislative basis.for.the exnort·program is the Surnlus Property Act of 1944, it is the announced intention that where practicable, steps wil~_be.ta~e~_to encourage the exportation of qualities of cotton Qf which the grflatest surpluses exist, and to protect the domestic supplies of those qual:i.tie;; which are fou~d to.be in relatively short sunply.· For the time being, Go~d.Middling rain-gro'IATU cotton 15/16-inch and longer, of which the total sup--oly. this season is exnected to oe some,nrhat under 100,000 bales, are the only qualities that "~Arill not be offered for exnort.

In general, the procedure under the program is that the Commodity Credit Corporatio~ will ~nou~c~. at interva~9, the ~~ices or the basis for determin­ing the prices at which it will sell cotton for e~1ort. Unon registration of export sales with the Commodity Credit Corporation, the Corporation will either suP.ply the co~ton at the 4esignated export price or, if the Corporation does not have available or does not choose to sell the coi;ton in question,it can authorize the.exnerter ~o sell cotton from hi9 own stocks to the Commodity Credit Corporation at the regular market price and immediately repurchase the identical cotton_at the price prevailt~g ~d~r the ex1ort urogram. The export sales nrice for f!Iiddling 15/16-inch cotton at any ]')articular time will oe the average of th~ lQ ;;not markets on the day that the Commodity Credit Corporation is notified of the exnort sale plus 60 noints to convert the nrice to.a Groun: J3 warehouse lQc;;ttion less. the annoUlfCf?(L ~xoort differential in effect at that time. The location differentials ·will b'e the location differentials anplicaole under the 19u4 Cotton Loan Program. The nremiums and discounts on tend~rable qualities 1/ \o.rill be the average of the 10 snot markets on the date the Commodity Credit Corporation ~eq~iYE?$ notice of the export sale. The premiums and discounts on nontendPrable qualities will be such as to.lower them relative to the market. The nremiums ~nd discounts on nontenderable qualities, like the exoort differential, will be suoject to change at any time.by the Commodity Credit Corporation.

Although the Surplus Property Act of 1944 also authorizes the price benefits extended to certain agricultural surplus nroducts to be extended also to nroducts manufactured therefrom for exnort~ it was announced that the-. nrogram covering the exoort of cotton textiles is also oeing developed but tnat it will be announced later 1o.rhen a surplus ()f cotton textile!'l may be available for export.

1/ Te~derable qualities under this program include Low Middling and higher, 1·Vhi te and Extra White, and Strict I'liddling and higher·, Spotted wherever such cotton has a staple length of 7/8-inch or longer. All other qualities are non tenderable.

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THE DO~~STIC COTTON-SITUATION

Spo~· Cott-on Prices T!Teaken; Farm Price· 'Above Pari ti .for Fi-rst !J:Ijme Since Apri! -1943

• ' ' r • • • ~ • ,

Spot maTket nrrces'of Middling 15/16-inch cotton have been declining slowly since September jO. The prf'ce on that date was 21.9n cents per pound. It has since slowly de.al:ined, averaging only 21.42 cents ner nou.nd during the 'ltoreek ended }To'vember 18.. ~

"The fArm price o£ c~tto~·Pose from 21.02 cents in mid-September to 21.25 ·cents·in mid~bctober. ~These comoare with a parity price of 21.08 cents per pound which has bElen- unchanged since June. The farm price of" cotton vras -·. abo"'lf"e n.ai-i ty ;ln"mid.:.Od;ober for the first time since A-pril 1943.

~ .. ~ • :::..v e~

• '(;;> \

Daily._ Consumption Rate Irown in_October~ · Equi-iralen(~~ .Annual Rate ~f 9~ 4 ..

Miltion Eales · e

During~~ctober domestic mills con~umed 795,000 bales of cotton. This compared wit·h-793,000 ."~ales in Septemb_e~--~~-~47,000_ bales in October 1943. This was equivalent·_ to an annual rate qf slightly under 9. 4 million bales. October, however, ·ha;d·more -i·rorking days than-eithel" of the other-two months, with the result that consumption-in Gctober averaged }6,569 bales per day compared ,~ith 38,687'bales in September and 4o,819 in October 1943.

. .

Total cotton consumption· for the full season is currently estimated at about 9.5 million bales or the same as the AugUst-October annual rate.· tf·-­consumption materializes as expected, it' now appears liltely that the dotnes-tic carry-over of American cotton at the end of the current season will be at least 1/2-million bales larger than.'cn.August 1, 1944 (assuming the domestic ~rop as estimated in November) for it -is-unlikely that exoorts will total more than 2 million bales and it now a~nears as though the 1944 crop (in-season ,· ginnfngs.with adjustment for city crop) will total about 11.9 million bales~

,_Ginni'ngs Trailing 1942 and~ Despite Larger Crop !Fhi s Year

', The 1944 cotton crop is cu~rently estimated at 11,928,000 running bales (12~)20,000 bales of 500 pounds gross weight) as compared witn 11,129,000 ru~~ing bales last season. Phe record yield of 2~3.3 pounds per acre compares 1orith the -previous all.:. time r~cord o:t 272.4 pounds reached in 1-142 and a 1933-42 aver~ge of 226.9-poun-ds. 'The harvested acr~age in 1944 is the smallest since 1895.. Through October ·31 the t8tal auantity ginned "~Aras 8,282,000 bales or about 781,000 b~les less than at the same 'time a year ago (ta~le 3). Consequently, at the end of October aoo~t 3.6 miilion bAles of the currPnt crop ~emained to be ginned ·comnared with about 2.::t milli-on bales a year earlier. In aJ:l cotton nroducing States except Missouri Rnd Florida, both the actuAl quantity of cotton ~n~ the percentage of the crop ~emaining to be ginned after October 31 '"'ere larger th~ ·a Y,ear. ea;rlierr-. in Missouri the quanti ~Y t~as larger but t~e ~ercentage smaller th~ ~ year ago While in Florida little if Any remained-to oe ginned either this year or .. last. ., -

NOVEMBER 1944 - 6 ~

SeverRl fr:tctors hA.ve contributed to' the delay in harvesting thi~ yeRr'o crop. The 1944 crop got off to a slow s tl'trt as widespread unseasonal v.reathel." delRyed planting. This late start was one of the principal fRctors causing the crep to mRture laterthannormal. Furthermore, there h~s generally been a tight sunply of pickers this fall 1.ri th much cotton remaining in the field a longer time after opening than in more normal times.

Staple C~ntinues Longer With Grade Lower Than Last Season ----

Through October 31, the staple length ef this year's ginnings averaged 32.1 thirty-~econds of an inch or slightly longer than a comparable average

_of 31.6 thirty-seconds last season.with the percentage of ginnings under 15/16-inch in length only 12.6 percent as compared with 17.1 percent a. year ago. The grade of cotton ginned so far this fall is running below last year. The grade index through October -}1 was 96.0 or 1.3 points l•wer than 1943 a."ld the percent~ age of cotton graded Strict Middling and Higher (Strict Middling and higher, White and Extra White, and GMd Middling Spetted) accounted for only 5.6 percent ef this year's ginnings as comnared with 16.7 percent last year. Rough preparation is far more preval.ent this season than last in a go,Qd many States; in Alabama, for instance, 15.0 percent as cempared 1•ri th 5.9 percent last year; in Louisiana, 24.1 percent as comnared with 9.5 percent; in Mississippi, 12.9

.nercent as comoared with 5.1 percent; in North Carolina, 28.8 percent as c•m­nared 1>Vi th 13.4 percent; and in Virginia, 41.6 percent as comnared with 23.8 nercent. For the- country as a ,,,hole, the nercentage of rough preparation was 11.1 uercent as compared ,.rith 6.6 nercent at the same date last year.

Pic_king Rates Average $1.92 ner 100 Pounds - for Certain Cotton; ~e;:t on Record

Farmers are naying an average of $1.92 per 100 pounds of seed cotton to get this yeA.r 1 scron)picked (table 4). This is the }lighest price pa.ui in any of the 21 years for v.rhich records are r:tvailable. New record high rates occurred in 17 of the 19 States in which cotton was grown. the excentions l:Jeing Kansas, an unimportant cotton nroducing State, in v.rhich- there was a. decline of 15 cents, and in Arizona where the marked reduction in the production of American-Egyptian cotton, for which the picking rate is considerably higher, was largely responsible for the decline of 45 cents per 100 pounds in the State average. Compared with the preceding years, the 1944 average rate represents increases of 16 percent over the 1943 average of $1.66, 36 pe~cent over the 1942 average of $1.41, 76 percent over the 194l average of $1.09, and 205 percent over the 1936-40 average o-f 63 cents per 100 pounds.' The relative increase in picking rates has been substantially larger than the increase that has occurred in the farm price of cotton. The August-October Un1>Veighted average farm price of 20.81 cents per pound was S percent above the 1943-44 v.reighted season average farm price, 9 percent over the"1942-43 average, 22 percent over the 1941-42 average, and 115 percent over the 1936-40 .average.

The largest increases in picking rates over last seasoQ occurred in liifissi!;c;iuni and i"iissouri where the incr.eases were 40 cents per 100 pounds, and in Arkansas and North Carolina, 1>Vhere the increases were 35 cents per 100 pounds.

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Missouri had the highest picking r~te (~2.40 per 100 pounds)· of any State this season. States to follow \vere Arizona and California 1,rhere the rate was 4'2.25; Illinois whe;3:-e it was ~2-.20; Missi'ssippi, _North Carolina, New lVJ.exico, and Ken-tucky where it '\oJas :P2 .10; Arkansas- where it was 4'2. 05; Tennessee, Texas, Oklahoma, and Virgini?- ·-'~~[here it was $1.95; Louisiana and Kansas where it \•'as $i1.SC); -~-nd-Florida-·Where it ·was $1~75-.: The three States with the lowest pic;k:ihg' r~te~s··were Alt:rbama>with $1.60, Georgia with ~1.50 and South Carolina ~;i th $1.4_5'/-' -

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--,iF..:E 1·TORLD S'IJ.PPLY. SI'I'UATI01T

L'i'ttJ,Ei: Ch&ng.e in the 1'iorld Position­of -~eridan-=cottc;'n

,' ·. ~-

'The ·wo'rid ca:rry-o~er o{ American cotton, as currently estimated, is ll,4oo,ooo bales or onJ.y 15~000 baies larger than a year earlier, and larger than the carry~over in all previous years except 1932 and 1933, and from ~9.3? -t~ro\ighj-'1941~ -'A ·Q:ispropqi'tionately "smail part -of the world carry-over of American cotton is in foreign countries. However, the ,carry-over of · ~me~~c~n co~~Dn ~n-this _cQtlntry of 10,609,000-bales·on-August 1, 1944; has been r-xceede~ only in 1938, 1939, and 1941. With production as-estimated in _Noyembert ~t-~p~ears that the carry-over of American cotton-both at home and aoroa.d ~rill lS_'e-higher on_August 1, 1945, than on August 1; 1941-t.- Current indications :point· to a 1~•orld supply· of Ame:dcan cotton -in 1944-45 somewhat above last•'$tfct~ort 1 s level of ?2.5 million bfl.les but less than in any of the: ye~r?.f~~m 1~)7 through 1942 •

. : . . . Ey" confParison· ~i th foreign cotton, the world- consumption of American cbtt9n has he-ld re1ativeiy steady during the war years holding betv.reen il and 13.miilion bales. The consumption of American cotton in £oreign COUI).tr~es. de&lined sbEtrply, from• nearly 5:...1j4 million bales in 1939 to about l-1/4 millie~ in each of the last 3 ~easons, but the bulk of ·this decline was o~f~et- py the- ·unpre-cedented· high level of consumpt·ion in this country.

World Consumption-of Foreign ·cotton About U;nchanged in lg43-'44; Carry-Over on ~ugust __ h lg44, at New High

Marke'd changes- in- the -t;rorld po·si tion of· foreig-n cotton have· occurred since the outbreak of war in 1939. Consumption has de-clined from 17 .j million bales in 1938-39 to about 1?-2/3 million bales in both of the ·last-2 ~easons. Thus, even though production (which averaged about 16.0 million bales from 1938 to 1940) decli~ed to 15.5 million bales in 1941, lh.o million in 1942, and 14.5 million in 19h3, -the carry-over has risen each season from 7.5 million bales on August 1, 1939, to an ~stimated 14.4 million on August 1, 1944. In terms of the 1942-43 rate of consumption, this carry-over represents bet,..,een 13 and 14 months 1 supply. The world sup-ply of foreign cotton last aeason was at a record high level of 21.2 million bales and the prospects are that it will be even higher this season.

NOVEMBER 1944 - 8 -

\vorld Consumption of All Kinds of Cotton Lowest Since ·1g31; Carry-over Largest on Record

1vorld consumption of all kinds ·of cotton has declined each year since 1938. In that year -- the last before the outbreak of war -- consumption totaled about 28.5 million bales whereas in 1943-44 it is tentatively. estimate{ Rt about 23.8 million bales. This is a decline of 17 percent from the pre-war ( 1938-39) level and the lowest since 1931. Consumption in this country ac.vanced from 6.9 million bales in 1938-39 to a record of an estimated 11.2 million -bales in 1941-~?, but has since declined, totaling slightly under 10 million in 19h3-44. In foreign countries, consumption has declined from ?1.6 million pales in 1938-39 to an estimated 13.8 million bales in each of the past 2 seasons. This represents a decline of about 36 percent_from the 1938-39 level ~nd it is the smallest consumption of cott~n since 1920.

At the end of the current sea~on, the carry-over of all cotton in the Vnited States is expected to be about 11-2 million bales or about 14 percent smaller than on August 1, 1939. The carry-over in foreign countries this last August is tentatively estimated at about 15 million baleo or 75 percent higher than in 1939. This is about 13 months' supply based on the 1943-44 rate of consumption. Current indications are that the end-of-season carry-over "Loth in foreign countries and in the entire world will be some'l/lrhat higher in 19~5 than the record level at the beginning of the current season.

Not only has ~he war caus~d cotton consumption in foreign-countries to decline, but it has also made- the accumulation of foreign statistics on cotton more difficult and the data available are often less accurate. Just ~s details concerning exports of cotton from this country are withheld by the Government lest they be of use to the enemy, so has release of various ~tatistical series in many friendly nations been discontinued. Many such data are made available to this Government in confidence butothers have not been made available or have been discontinued. Then, too, it is even more diffi­qult than before our entry into war to obtain reliable information on cotton }n the Axis countries and in Axis-dominated countries. Consequently, the margin of error in these estimates may be greater than would have been the case in normal times. However._ they were uublished in the Fall Outlook Issue pf The Cotton Situation-with the belief that the usefulness of these series to readers of The Cotton Situation would more than offset any unavoidable shortcomings or-the data.

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Table 1.- STATisTICAL S""tJMMARY - ---------- -.,....,....--' -- ---,.- ---- ---,--,-- -----Unft . : 1 g4 3 : -lq44 · Pci;l ... of

Item . . .. -or··_base · :· Oct·. · .:· Aue'. Sept. ·•· Oct. : year --"p'"'"eriod : : agQ 1/

Prices: Middling 15/lf-inch, 10 markets: Farm, United Stat-es ............. : Parity •....••..• ~ .......... · .............. : Farm, percentage of Y.~arity •.••• : Premium ef 1-1/8-inch ove~ basis '?:_/: . .:

Cent . C_en:t

Cent Percent

f 20~ 32 . :' 20.28.

20.46 gq

Memnhis •••••• t ......... . .; ........ ;:.. Point · : · . 450" C li 11-oll ·-... • p aro na .D mi-.1.1 area • ...-..... · oint

SxP, New Ene;land .miil ~oints 3./: Cent Cloth, 17 constructions ••••••• : Cent·. Mill margin (17 6onstructions)·:· · ·C~nt · ·: Cottonseed, fa.rm ~rice •.••••••• : Dollar Cottons~ed, ~arity ••••••••• ~ •• : Dollar Cottonseed, farm~- pet. crf" pa:rfl)r. Percent

Consumutien: : · . ·: ·

64o 4q.oo 4o.62 ZGil:!-7. 52.50 37.20 - t-41

All kinds during ~onth, total .: 1,000 bales : S47e0 All kinds cumulative, total ••• : 1,000 bales : 2,562 An kinds Y.~er day, total •. · •.••• : Eale :4o,S3lg All kinds, ann~al rate ., •••••• :Million bales: 10.5 American.:..~tian cot\on, total·: · 'Ea:le ': 3,"72'3 · American-Egyptian, cumulative.: Bale :10,763 Foreign cotton, total ••• ,. .•••• : :Sale ! 9~ 1}15 Foreien cotton, C~1flative •••• : :Bale :?9, 94S ~indle aoti vi ty: ~ •.-· . . . ........ .. : .. : ... ~

21.41 20.1-5 2l.OS3

g6

450 625

51.50 41 .• 54 2?); 35 53.20 :;g. 30 ~3~

~41.5 S341

:fi, 5~7 Q.4

3, 622" 3,622 q, 452 Q,~5~

S-pindles in nlace ••••••••••••• : Thousand :23, 331 23, 21)4 Active snindles ••••••••••••••• : Thousand :22,600 22,241 Percenta~e active •••••••••.•.• : Percent : g6.g g5.h Houn~ onerated, total ••••••••• : Million :1~,o6q q,q52 Hours ner s-oindle in o-r>eration .:· . · llour .: · Mj2 :. . · 447· Hours ner dey }3} : .............. : Hour 13.q 14.4

Stocks, end of mon"lh: ·. : : Consuming establishments •••••• : 1,000 bales 2,206 Public storage a~d co~pr~sses ~ 1,000 bales :12,274 Total 2/ •.... ;.~ ••. ~ ...... ~ ... !.1,000 bales :14,480 Eeyntian cotton,· total. 5./ ••••• : :Sale :44,181

1, 710 . 7.q37

. q,647 58,o~n

21. 4o .. 21. 5g 21.02 . 21.25 21.00. : 21. 08.

100 ·101".

430 42.6 605 625

1)1.-50· 51.00 42.02 42. 44' 2o.~g 21.12 52.30 52.70 ?f>. 30 38. 30

137 138

7q3.1 7g5.4 1,6·35 ··2,430. 3~.6S37 :fi, 56g

_g.g g.4 .

3. 34g 3. 487 . 6, q7_1 10,458 ~ •. 5 36 8,~21

17, g~~ 2h,~OQ • ·= -· ") , ..

2 3t 1 gg ? 3~ 1 3q 22,2~9 .. ~~.;228

g6.o g6.1 q,3~1:_ o.,487.

421 410 14.0 l3.2

1, 714 g,776

11, 4go 54,253

1 tq77 .. ll,qg2 13lg6g . 46;968

American-Egy-ptian cotion,: : • total 5.1 •••••• ~ ••••••• _.;· •• · •• ·.:· :· ;·:sa.ie ;· ~46·,'?35- :·4-3ii~9:· 48;237 '"49,sog

Index numbers: . . · ! · · · · . : I C . . •.

otton consum~~ion •••••••••••• :lq]5-~-~ 100~ Snindle activity§} .•••• : •••••• i:: ;;:.I?ei"cen"i; ):: E£ices naid, interest,an~ taxe~!lql0-14-~ 100! ·1 t~lE-sale·-nr 1·~.... , •lttrlO 14 -100·

,., :~fVs::JI • e ... • .• e. e • •• e e • J• ... """= ..

. ll)b 129.5 .

165 '150·

. ll:io: ..

116~3. 110' 152

1~ 140 122.3. ~17. 4 •

170 170 15? 152

"10~ 105 103 102

g5 gg

104 104 103 100 103

98

g4 95 go go g4 g7 ~4 go

eg g8 gg g4 g5 g5

qo 98 g6

106

107

go gl

103 JOl

~ • ..J I • !

~n!iled fro~ficial so.;_rE:e~ •• ·~/ .Apnli~ -l_a-s-_t-m~nth for which nata are available. 2/ Premiums fbr Middling 1-1/8 inch bas·ed ·on n·ear ·active month futures at New York.- J{ SiP, No. 2, 1-1/2 inch, New England mill points. 1/ Total hours ~~r spindle in o-per~tion divided by number of days in calenda.r month. ~ Includes enly stocks in mills and ~ublic storage and at com~res~es. ~ Eased on 5-day ~0--hour -per ,.reek opePation.

Tpble ?.- Cotton, Upland: Grade and stan1e of ginnine:s through Oqtober 31, by St8tes, 1343 ap.d 194Lr.

__ __ __ __ -- :Percentae;e of gin-: Rough Average stanle :Percentae:e shorter' G d . d

-- :nine:s Strict Mid- : prenaration , length : than 15/16 inch : ra e ln ex State :dline; and high?r~ 44 : 1g43 : 1g44 ~943 : 1~ -- __ .; lq4 ,;___~; lg44 ; lg43 : 1<144---71943 : lq44

:~~eLl J2d inch Percent Percent

, Alabama . . . . . . . . . . . · Arizona •....•... : 'Arl{:an sas •••.•••• : California •.•... : Florida .......•• : Georgia •••.. , .•• ; Louisiana ..•.••• : Mississinui ••••• : Missouri ••••.. ,. • : New Mexico ••••.• : North Carolina •• : Oklahoma •.••.••• : South Carolina •• : Tennessee ••••••• : Texas ••....• - · · ,. ·: Vire;inia •••••••. :

United States

30o~

33-~ 32-2 34-7 )2.~

31.5 )2. 3 33·5 33·g )5.1 32.5 2~.4 33·1 32.0 2q,5 :32.1

3J-.6

31·5 -n. 7 )2. 7 34.6 '33·7 3l.g )2. 4 33·7 33·h 35-1 32.9 29.1 33·0 32.7 2q,g

33·1

)2.1

15.1 ?:} 7-3 ?:}

n.g 7.2 h,6 2.0 0.2 5./ 3·)

63.6 0.3

10.3 4(). 3 h,O

17.1

5.6 ~-

4~5

2.~ 2.~

1.8 (),q

(),2

l.~

55.1 0.1 4.2

44.2 0.7

12.6.

q7.6 QQ.l gg~4

103.4 q(;,g gh,7 q7 .1 C)9,,2 q(-),4

101.5 g5,g 96.3 g5.7 qt..o Q7.4 g3.6

q7·3

q~.2

100.~ qg,o

103.5 q 3· 7 gr::.1 g6.5 Q7.~ Q7.0

101.2 Ql.O Q1,.8 g2.6 g7.7 ~l5. 5 M. 7

q6.o

Percent

10.7 23.8 22.5 g4.6 s.q 2.7

20.2 2'7 .4 .

1).5 42.7 F..7 8.2 4.2 7.0

1q.3 0.7

16~7

~~~s-trieT-Mi~d1Tn;e; and. hie;her, White and Extra White, and Good Middling Snotte~ ~~ Less than 0.05 ncrcent. Comniled from renorts of the Cotton an~ Fiber Branch, Office of Distribution.

Percent Percent Percent -- - ---=..;;.....:...::=..;;...

}.1 4o.o 5-5

86.6 3·2 1.~ 5.0 Q,O

4.7 }Q.q 0.2 1.9 o.6 4.3

. 5'.8 0.1

5.6

5,9 0.6 2.6 b.~

27.6 5.8 9-5 5.1 0.3 0~7

13.4 2.1

'17. 7 g.o 5.1

23,8

6.6

15.0 1.1 8.6 2.4

39-9 6.3

24.1_ 12.9 1.6

'1.4 28.8 1.7

12.3 g.o

- §.,Q 41.6

11.1

0

t.3 8 w t:cJ f-l

·....o -g:

f-' '::)

I

· Table 3 .- ·Ootton, ,all .kinds; Gi_nnings _ be.fm;e Oc,tober 3l anc .. o_.uanti:ty remaining _t.o be ginned. after tha~ date, by States, 1942-44

-Gin..-ri.ings through • . Remaining to be ginned after Oct~31 2/

: Total ginnings . . Percentage of total State . -·Oct. 31 ·- t Actue.1 . I

. . . : ginnings . . . _;__1942 : 1943. : 194~_:_1942 : 1;243 : 1;244 : 1942 : 1243 : 1944 _: _1942 : 19:±3. : 1944

: 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 ,,, '

: bales bales bales bales bales bales bales bales bales Percent Percent Pereent - ~

Alabama •.....•.• : , 808 3.61 863 892 932 9~2 84 71 99 9 ~ 10 Arizona .......• : 42 4o 34 188 129 132 146 ' 89 98 78 69 74 Arkansas~ ..... ~: 1,159 . 893 980 1,428 1,087 1,382 269 1-94 402' 19 18- ~9 California ..... : 81 89 59 399 ' 333 344 318 244 285 80 73 8j Florida .' ..... :. : 14 . 14 10 15' ' . 14 10 1 --- --- 7 Georgia ...•.... : 768 752 653 853 848 788 85 96 135 10 11 17 Louisia.na ..... ·. : 545 . 646 514 572 , 71a 596 27 67 82 5 9· 14 Mississippi ...• : 1,685 1,562 1,420 1,887 1~78 1,969 202 . 222 549 ll 12· 28 IHssouri ••..... : 329 222 297 414' -I 296 375 . 85 . 74 78- 21 25 21 Ne\v· Eexico •... ·.: 44 53 38 104 •' 102 108 6o · 49 70 58 48 65 North Carolina • : 510 501 461 735' ·- 6n 718 221:) - 110 257 31 18. 36. Oklahoma •....• ~: 459 246 325 688 373 632 229 127 307' 33 34 49 South Carb1ina . : 611 614 631 695' 693 8~2 84 79 201 12 11 24 Tennessee· •.... ·. : 472 385 393 603 480 5 7 131 95 154 22 20· 28 Tm:as •.. : ••••• ~: 2,156 2,160 1,577 2, 917' 2,702 ·2,49a 761 542 916 26 20 37 Virginia: ..... :: 15 15 15 28 20. 2 13 5 9 46 25 38 Other •. , · ...... :: 15 10 12 20 12 16 5 2 4 25 17 25 .. .

Uhitod States : 9,713 9',063 8, 282 12,438 il,l29 11,.928 2, 725 2,066 3,646· 22 19- Jl . :

lfindicat@d--N~er'l, ___,. · -- ---EJ Obtained by subtracting rounded figures. Compiled in part from reports of'the Bureau of th~ Census.

Table 4.- Average v•age rates for picking· ·100 p·~un'd:l!l of seed cDtton, ·oy States, 1925-44

---------- ------ --------- ---- -------

State : : : ~ : : : : : : : : : : :1941:19u2 :1943:131•4

1925: 1926~ 1927~ 192_8~ 1929:1930~1931~1932~1933~1934:1935~1936~1937~1938;1939:1940~ 1/ ~ ll ~ 1/ : Jj -- -------- -- --- ---- --- -- -- ----

~· Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol. Dol; Dol. Dol. ....-.-- --- --- --- ---- --- --- --- --.- --- --- --- --- --- --- -- --- ----

l"io. Va.

. . . . . . . . . . N. C. • • s. c. . ! Ga. . • ·: Fla. • . :_ Tenn .. : Ala •.. : Miss. . : .Ark. . . : LB.. • •.. llJkla .• : Tex.~-,, .• : N. Mex.: Ariz. • : Calif. : Ill. .. : Kans .. : Ky. • •. : .

1.38 1.12 1.14' 1.14 1.12 1.13 1,0(}. 1-3.2. ±-.·23 1.15 1.17 1.03 1.07 .1.07 . 1.01

.86 .82 .J8 ~83 .. 81

.94 .90 .... 88 .85 .90 1.13 1~12 .95 1.02 1.07 1.41 .. 1.05 .. 1~P8 .l.o4 1~34 1.08 1.0;3. .96 -95 .92 l. 35 1.16 1 .• 08 1.02 1.08 1.27 1~06 l~b5 ~-03 1.06 1.25 1.12 .1.03 1.03 1.01· 1~60 1.28 L.4o 1.?8 1.22 1~~3 1-.20 1..?4 1.?1 1.11. 1•4o 1.15 1.30 : 1.?2 1..25 1.75 1.45 l.53 1.50 ~.50 1.65 1.55 1..47 1.46 1.45

. 1.20 1_._20 1.15 1. 54 .--- 1 .. 5o 1. 4o 1. 30 1.48 L 10 . 1-.?o .. 1. 20 1.18

. 71 .49

. 75 .. 45 • 58 .36 . 52 . 36 • 57 . 35 . 70 .41 .63 .43 • 55 . 34 • 56 . 39 .56 .40 .61 .u1 • 73 .45 . 71 .44 .68 .Li3 . 89 • 58 .89 .50 • 71 .50 . 75 . 45 • 7C' .49

.52 .67 .so . 75 -95 .80

.34 .45 .65 -~5 .70 ·75

.38 .48 .65 .65'.65 .70

.36 .45 ·.50 .50 .55 :6o -33 .45 .so .50 .55 .60 ·39 .48 -55 -55 .60 .65 .47 .54 .65 .60 .80 .70 .36 .45 -55 .. 50 .60 .60 .40 .49 -55 -55 . 75 .80 .44 ·a? .60 .55 • 75 • 70 -39 • 8 -55 -55. .65 . 70 .48 .65 . 75 • 70,~., • 75 • 75 • 45 . 55 . 6·o Jo-. . 65 . 6 5 .44 .• 55 ~65 .65! . 70 . 70 .50 .67 .• 90 .90 1.10 .85 l 6 . . +5 • 5 • 90 • 90 1. 00 . 95

.4o .65 .. 75 .75 .90 .70

.48 .65 .75 . 70 . 75 .65 ~50 .60 .80 . 7,5 .95 .80

. 75 . 75

.65 ... 60

.60 .60

. 50 . 50

. 50 . 59

.60 .60

.6o .6·o

. 50 .50 -55 .60 .60 .60 . 55 . 55 . 70 .65 . 55 . 55 . 60 • 65 .so . 90 . 75 • 85 . 70 . 70 .65 .65 . 80 • so

. 77 1.40

. 70 1.00

.67 -95

.54 . 75

. 53 ~ 75

.67 .85

.65 1. 20

.51 .. 85 -57 1.10 .65 1.20 . 55 t 85 . 72 1.20 • 58 1.10 .68 1.20 ·93 1.45 -95 1.30 . 70 1.35 .65 1.10 .80 1.25

1.85 2.00 ::.40 l. 50 1. 80 l. s 5 1.40 1. 75 2.10-1.00 1.25 1.45 1.00 l. 3.0 1.50 1.15 1.45 1. 75 1.50 l.BO 1.95 1.10 1.40 1.60 1. 4o 1. 70 .?. .10 1.50 1~ 70 2.05 1.20 1.50 1.80 LSO 1.80 1~95 1.45 1. 70 1.95 1. 75 2.00 2.10 2. 45 2. 70 2 .. C.5 1.90 2.10 2.25 1. 70 2.00 2. ?f' L50 1.99 1.60 1.80 2.00 2'.10

U. S. ;. 1.?7 · 1-.:1~ -. ·1-..;:.1-2 1.10 l.c)b- -:6_3- Tl-."4?---:-53-:-b"O~ --:69 .69 .57":5s-:6'2 1.09 l)il1.66 1--:§2

1/ Includes r~tes paid £or snapping bolls converted to seed ~otton equivalent. --- ----- ----- ----- ---·--- . .

•-:::: 0 <: ~ @

fiJ 1-'

1..0 +=' ~

' . ~ [\)

- 13-

Table 5.- Cotton, American, foreign, and all kinds: World ~uppl7 and con~tion, 1934-3P. averege, annual 1939-44 1./

• Year qll'begin­

ning August

__ ~ suPPlY-____ -- -l"li_ll consumptiop. 2/ _ __ Carry-over August 1. __

- World , ; World United : Foreign : 1Vr·rld produc- : total States :countries: total tion

United : Foreign : World States :countries: total

-- -·- --·--~- --- -'-- ---- _:._...__ -- ---- ---

Average: 1934-38:

1939 1940 1941 1942 : 1943 4/: 1944 Tjj:

1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 bales j_/ bales J/ beles J/ bales J/ bales J/ bales J/ bales J../ bales J/ ------ -------------- ------- ...:..._ _________ America_n _____________ _

7,191

12,956 10,469 12,026 10,505 10,569 10,609

1,181 2,073

771 660 817 792

9~353

14,137 12,54? 12,797 11,165 11,386 11,401

12,5C4

11,418 12,305 10,628 12,604 11,143

21,857

25,555 24,847 2_3,425 23,769 22,529

6,316

7,655 9,576

10,974 10,930 9,828

5,453

5,221 2,291 1,186 1,313 1,250

11,769

12,876 11,867 12,160 12,243 11,078

----.---- -- ---- ----; ____________ Foreign ___________ _ Average·: 1934-38:

1939 1940 1941 1942 : 1943 !±./: 1944 '!i./:

88

77 -95

140 135

88 118

7,091 7,179

7,424 7,635 9,167

11,319 12,593 14,263

7,501 7.730 9,307

11,454 12,681 14,381

15,908 16,532 15,493 13,974 14,500

23,409 24,082 24,800 25,428 27,181

137

129 146 196 170 n4

16,039 16,176

.15,481 .15,610 14,529 14,675 13,100 13,296 12,477 12,647 12,586 12,700

------------ -- ------ ----

Average: 1934-38:

1939 1940 1941 1942 . 1943 4/: 1944 Til:

--------7,279

13,033 10,564 12,166 10,640 10,657 10,727

9,253

8,605 9,708 9.938

11,979 13,410 15,055

16,532

21,638 20,272 22,104 22,619 24,067 .?5,782

All kinds -- ·-------------

28,833

27,326 28,657 26,121 26,578 25,643

45,365

48,964 48,929 48,225 49,197 49,710

6', 45 3

7,784 9,722

ll,l70 11,100 9,942

21,492 27,945

20,702 28,486 16,820 26,542 14,286 25 '456 13,790 24,890 13~336 23,778

fJ For ~nnual data from 1920 see t 1he October 1944 issue of The Cotton Si~on. ?../ Excludes destroyed cotton. -Jj American in running bles (counting round bales as half bales) and foreign in ~ales of approximately 478 pounds, net weight. !il PrE>liminary and partly e-stimeted. Compiled from reports of the :Bureau of the Census, the Ne;IIT York Cotton Exchange Service, the Commodity Credit Corporation, and estimates by the Dep~.rtment of Agriculture.