Business (as Usual) Business (as Usual) and the and the

EnvironmentEnvironment

Mortar Board Last Lecture Mortar Board Last Lecture March 3, 2004March 3, 2004

My teachers.My teachers.

Economy - Economy - EnvironmentEnvironment

economy

environment

Business ViewBusiness View

economy

environment

An An Environmentalist Environmentalist

ViewView

economy

environment

Sustainable ViewSustainable View

economy

environment

Global WarmingGlobal Warming

www.bongonews.comwww.bongonews.com

MARCH 19, 2003MARCH 19, 2003 ““After a Cold Winter, Europe Asks After a Cold Winter, Europe Asks

the US to Increase Global the US to Increase Global Warming”Warming”

BRUSSELS — After suffering through a much colder than usual winter, BRUSSELS — After suffering through a much colder than usual winter, leaders of the European Community have appealed to the United States to leaders of the European Community have appealed to the United States to do more to increase global warming.do more to increase global warming.

BBC NewsBBC NewsFriday, 9 January, 2004, 01:14 GMTFriday, 9 January, 2004, 01:14 GMT

http://news.bbc.co.ukhttp://news.bbc.co.uk ““Climate change is the most severe Climate change is the most severe

problem we are facing today.”problem we are facing today.” - Sir David King, UK government’s chief science adviser- Sir David King, UK government’s chief science adviser

Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases

Carbon dioxideCarbon dioxide – – fossil fuel combustion. fossil fuel combustion.

MethaneMethane – fossil fuel – fossil fuel production, decomposition of production, decomposition of organic wastes. organic wastes.

Nitrous oxideNitrous oxide - agricultural and - agricultural and industrial activities, as well as industrial activities, as well as during combustion of solid during combustion of solid waste and fossil fuels. waste and fossil fuels.

Humans emit 24 billion tons per Humans emit 24 billion tons per year. year.

Atmospheric COAtmospheric CO22

Average Earth Temperature Average Earth Temperature increased 1increased 1ooF during 20F during 20thth

CenturyCentury

Current temperature is the Current temperature is the highest in highest in 1000 years1000 years..

Projected Global Temperature Projected Global Temperature ChangeChange

Temperature Increase: 3 Temperature Increase: 3 ooF – 10 F – 10 ooF by 2100F by 2100

ImpactsImpacts

Rising global temperatures Rising global temperatures are expected to raise sea are expected to raise sea level, level,

Change precipitation and Change precipitation and other local climate other local climate conditions.conditions.

Changing regional climate Changing regional climate could alter forests, crop could alter forests, crop yields, and water suppliesyields, and water supplies

Damage ecosystems. Damage ecosystems. Deserts may expand into Deserts may expand into

existing rangelands.existing rangelands.

Extinction of SpeciesExtinction of Species

Recent Letter in Recent Letter in “Nature”“Nature”

Extinction risk from Extinction risk from climate changeclimate change

NatureNature 427427, 145 - 148 (08 January , 145 - 148 (08 January 2004); doi:10.1038/nature02121 2004); doi:10.1038/nature02121

On the web at www.nature.comOn the web at www.nature.com

Results of the StudyResults of the Study

“ “ When the average of the three When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction of species committed to extinction (18%) than mid-range (24%) and (18%) than mid-range (24%) and maximum-change (35%) scenarios.”maximum-change (35%) scenarios.”

Between 1/5 and 1/3 of all Between 1/5 and 1/3 of all species will become extinct species will become extinct

in your lifetime!in your lifetime!

Most of us ignored this Most of us ignored this report.report.

Most people ignore Most people ignore environmental environmental problems, do not problems, do not understand them, understand them, remain inactive, remain inactive, hope everything hope everything works out well, or works out well, or don’t connect the don’t connect the science with reality.science with reality.

A few were skeptical.A few were skeptical.

There is a very There is a very strong strong consensus consensus among among scientists that scientists that global global warming has a warming has a dominant dominant anthropogenic anthropogenic component.component.

The US has The US has notnot developed a developed a CO2 Reduction PlanCO2 Reduction Plan

Bush Bush administration administration emphasizes emphasizes energy production energy production and consumption.and consumption.

Why is the US responding Why is the US responding in this way? in this way?

Since global Since global warming will affect warming will affect us, our friends, our us, our friends, our families, and the families, and the world around us, world around us, we should take we should take responsible actions responsible actions to mitigate its to mitigate its effects.effects.

Compare to US response to Compare to US response to air pollutionair pollution!!

By 1970, air pollution had By 1970, air pollution had become a major US health become a major US health problem problem

PollutantsPollutants Gases – CO, SOGases – CO, SOxx, O, O33, NO, NOxx, and VOC, and VOC Particulates and aerosolsParticulates and aerosols

Photochemical SmogPhotochemical Smog

Ozone is formed Ozone is formed when UV when UV radiation, high radiation, high temperatures, temperatures, Nitrogen oxides, Nitrogen oxides, and VOCs and VOCs combine. combine.

Automobiles are Automobiles are the main source.the main source.

Acid RainAcid Rain

Sulfuric acid (HSulfuric acid (H22SOSO44) and nitric (HNO) and nitric (HNO33) ) acid are formed and precipitated on acid are formed and precipitated on vegetation in lakes and streams. vegetation in lakes and streams. Automobiles and coal plants are the Automobiles and coal plants are the main sources.main sources.

The Environmental The Environmental Protection AgencyProtection Agency

Created in 1970Created in 1970

EPA EPA Environmental Protection Environmental Protection

AgencyAgency

Mike Leavitt Christine Todd Whitman

Clean Air ActsClean Air Acts1955, 1963, 1970, 19901955, 1963, 1970, 1990

Command and Control Command and Control StrategyStrategy

Automobile emission standards are an Automobile emission standards are an example of the “Command and example of the “Command and Control” strategy. Control” strategy.

Emission standards are set and Emission standards are set and enforced by EPA.enforced by EPA.

Catalytic ConverterCatalytic Converter

Converts VOC, CO, NOx -> H2O, N2, O2, Converts VOC, CO, NOx -> H2O, N2, O2, CO2CO2

Catalysts are platinum, palladium, rhodium Catalysts are platinum, palladium, rhodium or a ceramic.or a ceramic.

Add $500 to cost of car.Add $500 to cost of car.

Have EPA Strategies Worked for Pollution

Emission by cars?

PollutaPollutantnt

19701970 20012001

VOCVOC 16.9 (16.9 (4141*)*) 4.94.9NOxNOx 11.5 (11.5 (2828*)*) 8.28.2COCO 163 163

((400400*)*)7575

Emission by On-Road Vehicles ( million short Emission by On-Road Vehicles ( million short

tons)tons)

• Estimate of current value with no pollution control program, business as usual. Estimate of current value with no pollution control program, business as usual.

Assuming 143 percent increase in vehicle miles. Assuming 143 percent increase in vehicle miles.

Power Plant EmissionsPower Plant Emissions

Use Cap and Trade strategy.

Cap and TradeCap and Trade• Utilities are assigned allowances - permission Utilities are assigned allowances - permission to emit a ton of sulfur dioxide to emit a ton of sulfur dioxide • Utilities can sell unused allowances or carry Utilities can sell unused allowances or carry them over into the next year.them over into the next year.

ScrubbersScrubbers

Remove SO2 from coal plant exhaust.Adds at least 10% to the cost of a coal

plant.

The Clean Air Act The Clean Air Act Worked!Worked!

Why is dealing with Global Why is dealing with Global Warming so much more Warming so much more

difficult?difficult?

Global Warming is Global Warming is notnot a a clear and present danger.clear and present danger.

Global Warming does Global Warming does notnot immediately threaten immediately threaten

human health.human health.

Global Warming is Global Warming is notnot the the result of an impurity like result of an impurity like

sulfur in coal.sulfur in coal.

Global Warming is the Global Warming is the direct result of consuming direct result of consuming Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal. Oil, Natural Gas, and Coal. We get 85% of our energy We get 85% of our energy

from fossil fuelfrom fossil fuel

C + OC + O22 CO CO22

There are There are nono technical fixes technical fixes like scrubbers or catalytic like scrubbers or catalytic

converters.converters.

CostsCosts of mitigating global of mitigating global warming are seen by some warming are seen by some to be greater than costs of to be greater than costs of

adapting to global warming.adapting to global warming.

Global Warming is Global Warming is notnot a a local problem.local problem.

Compare to US response to Compare to US response to stratospheric ozone stratospheric ozone

depletiondepletion!!

Depletion of the Ozone Depletion of the Ozone LayerLayer

Antarctic Ozone Hole was Antarctic Ozone Hole was a clear and present a clear and present

danger. Science was well-danger. Science was well-understood.understood.

Human health as well as Human health as well as ecology was threatened .ecology was threatened .

Technical fixes and Technical fixes and favorable economics led favorable economics led to international treaties.to international treaties.

Montreal ProtocolMontreal Protocol

29 countries plus the 29 countries plus the European Union European Union signed initiallysigned initially

All have agreed to a All have agreed to a phase-out schedulephase-out schedule

Globally emission of Globally emission of ODPs has been ODPs has been drastically reduced to drastically reduced to around 10% of around 10% of original levelsoriginal levels..

Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol

The US does The US does not support the not support the Kyoto Protocol, Kyoto Protocol, an an international international treaty to treaty to reduce global reduce global warming.warming.

US Objections to KyotoUS Objections to Kyoto

Developing Developing nations not nations not bound, initially.bound, initially. Reducing fossil Reducing fossil fuel use would fuel use would disrupt US and disrupt US and global economyglobal economy..

But, we can But, we can notnot avoid our avoid our responsibility.responsibility.

US has US has 5% of 5% of world world populatipopulation, but on, but emits emits 25% of 25% of GHG.GHG.

The scientific evidence is The scientific evidence is solid.solid.

We can We can notnot wait to see wait to see what happens.what happens.

Species extinction is Species extinction is imminentimminent..

Extinctions are Extinctions are permanentpermanent..

Recovery from Recovery from mass extinctions mass extinctions takes millions of takes millions of years.years.

The next great extinction event The next great extinction event will be caused by will be caused by humanshumans..

KT Extinction EventKT Extinction Event All dinosaurs All dinosaurs

became extinct.became extinct. 65 million years ago.65 million years ago. Caused by meteor Caused by meteor

impact.impact.

Global Change is our greatest Global Change is our greatest environmental challenge.environmental challenge.

Threat is based on Threat is based on computer models not computer models not measurements.measurements.

The damage is in the The damage is in the future, not the present.future, not the present.

Mitigation may be Mitigation may be expensive.expensive.

Mitigation requires global Mitigation requires global action.action.

Effects are irreversible.Effects are irreversible.

What can we do?What can we do?

MitigationMitigation

Reduce CO2 Reduce CO2 emissionsemissions by by reducing reducing consumption of consumption of fossil fuel.fossil fuel.

Protect rainforests Protect rainforests and other CO2 and other CO2 sinkssinks..

AdaptationAdaptation

Protect endangered Protect endangered species with larger species with larger refuges.refuges.Avoid flooding risks.Avoid flooding risks.Protect water Protect water supplies.supplies.Protect grasslands Protect grasslands and agricultural lands and agricultural lands against overuse.against overuse.

Impacts depend on Impacts depend on emissions.emissions.

We must switch from fossil We must switch from fossil fuels to sustainable energyfuels to sustainable energy

Future sustainable energy Future sustainable energy mix will include many mix will include many

sourcessources. . ConservationConservation Passive solarPassive solar Active solarActive solar PhotovoltaicPhotovoltaic WindWind HydroelectricHydroelectric GeothermalGeothermal Fuel cell Fuel cell

technologiestechnologies Hybrid electric Hybrid electric

vehiclesvehicles

Reducing fossil fuel Reducing fossil fuel consumption consumption

alleviates environmental alleviates environmental problemsproblems

Reduce CO2 Reduce CO2 emissionsemissions

Reduce air pollutionReduce air pollution Reduce extraction Reduce extraction

impacts (e.g. oil impacts (e.g. oil spills)spills)

Reduce use of water Reduce use of water and other resources.and other resources.

Global Oil Resources will be Global Oil Resources will be increasingly concentrated in increasingly concentrated in

Middle EastMiddle EastSaudi Saudi ArabiaArabia

2626%%

IraqIraq 1111%%

IranIran 1010%%

KuwaitKuwait 1010%%

UAEUAE 6%6%

RussiaRussia 5%5%

United United StatesStates

3%3%

Global Problem Global Problem Requires Requires

Global ActionGlobal Action

We can learn We can learn from Less from Less Developed Developed

Countries and Countries and we can help we can help them avoid them avoid

our mistakesour mistakes

Switching from fossil fuel Switching from fossil fuel must be based on must be based on

international treaties.international treaties. Cap and Trade could Cap and Trade could

work on global scale.work on global scale. Include the costs of Include the costs of

current and future current and future environmental impacts.environmental impacts.

Let market forces Let market forces control global energy control global energy development.development.

Encourage innovation.Encourage innovation.

Sustainable Sustainable DevelopmentDevelopment

Rio Declaration on Environment Rio Declaration on Environment and Developmentand Development

Principle 3 Principle 3

The right to development must be The right to development must be fulfilled so as to equitably meet fulfilled so as to equitably meet developmental and environmental developmental and environmental needs of needs of presentpresent and and futurefuture generations. generations.

Sustainable Future?Sustainable Future?

We must be We must be concerned with concerned with the economic and the economic and environmental environmental needs of needs of futurefuture generations as generations as well as our own well as our own needs.needs.

Questions?Questions?