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Business Employment Business Employment Dynamics: State Gross FlowsDynamics: State Gross Flows
Eric Simants and David M. TalanEric Simants and David M. Talan
International Conference on Establishment SurveysInternational Conference on Establishment SurveysMontreal, QCMontreal, QC21 June 200721 June 2007
The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy of the U.S. Bureau of Labor necessarily reflect the official policy of the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics.Statistics.
U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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OverviewOverview
Business Employment Dynamics Business Employment Dynamics (BED)(BED)
State-level BED time series dataState-level BED time series data• RecessionRecession• RecoveryRecovery• Gross Job Gains and Gross Job Losses Gross Job Gains and Gross Job Losses
and its impact on Job Growthand its impact on Job Growth
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What is Business Employment What is Business Employment Dynamics?Dynamics?
Longitudinal data series constructed Longitudinal data series constructed from quarterly cross-sectional datafrom quarterly cross-sectional data
Analyzes quarterly gross job flowsAnalyzes quarterly gross job flows Unit of analysis is the Unit of analysis is the EstablishmentEstablishment• An establishment is defined as an An establishment is defined as an
economic unit, typically located at a economic unit, typically located at a unique physical site and engaged in unique physical site and engaged in predominately one type of production predominately one type of production activityactivity
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BED Data ElementsBED Data Elements
Gross job gainsGross job gains• Sum of job gains at Sum of job gains at ExpandingExpanding and and OpeningOpening establishments establishments
Gross job lossesGross job losses• Sum of job losses at Sum of job losses at ContractingContracting and and ClosingClosing establishments establishments
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State-level BEDState-level BEDTime Series DataTime Series Data
Data reveal some states began downturn Data reveal some states began downturn in job growth about one year prior to the in job growth about one year prior to the recessionrecession
Jobless recovery is evident for most states Jobless recovery is evident for most states 6 quarters into the recovery6 quarters into the recovery
Job growth occurring in most states since Job growth occurring in most states since 2003Q32003Q3• Are more establishments expanding or Are more establishments expanding or
opening, or are less establishments contracting opening, or are less establishments contracting or closing?or closing?
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RecessionRecession
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RecessionRecession
2001Q1 shows the first time in the 2001Q1 shows the first time in the national-level BED time series where gross national-level BED time series where gross job losses greater than gross job gainsjob losses greater than gross job gains
21 states had gross job losses in excess to 21 states had gross job losses in excess to gross job gains in 2000Q3gross job gains in 2000Q3• Declining trends for gross job gains coupled Declining trends for gross job gains coupled
with increasing trends for gross job losses in with increasing trends for gross job losses in most states may have been masked in most states may have been masked in national-level time series datanational-level time series data
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Influence of larger statesInfluence of larger stateson national BED time serieson national BED time series
Four largest states in regards to total Four largest states in regards to total employment (California, Texas, New York employment (California, Texas, New York and Florida) comprise nearly 1/3 of total and Florida) comprise nearly 1/3 of total gross job gains and gross job losses gross job gains and gross job losses nationallynationally
Gross job gains well above gross job losses Gross job gains well above gross job losses in these 4 states until 2001Q1in these 4 states until 2001Q1
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Influence of larger statesInfluence of larger stateson national BED time serieson national BED time series
CA, TX, NY, FL combined 2000Q3 CA, TX, NY, FL combined 2000Q3 datadata• Gross job gains = 2,804,989Gross job gains = 2,804,989• Gross job losses = 2,553,053Gross job losses = 2,553,053• Difference = 251,936Difference = 251,936
National 2003Q3 dataNational 2003Q3 data• Gross job gains = 8,724,000Gross job gains = 8,724,000• Gross job losses = 8,578,000Gross job losses = 8,578,000• Difference = 146,000Difference = 146,000
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Influence of larger statesInfluence of larger stateson national BED time serieson national BED time series
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Peak of Gross Job LossesPeak of Gross Job Losses
Gross job losses peak at over 9.1 Gross job losses peak at over 9.1 million for the entire nation in million for the entire nation in 2001Q32001Q3
8 states (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, 8 states (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Nevada, Texas and Georgia, Hawaii, Nevada, Texas and Utah) do not peak until 2001Q4Utah) do not peak until 2001Q4
Result of backlash from Sept 11Result of backlash from Sept 11thth tragedies or consumers tightening tragedies or consumers tightening spending?spending?
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Peak of Gross Job LossesPeak of Gross Job Losses
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Peak of Gross Job LossesPeak of Gross Job Losses
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Great Lake StatesGreat Lake States
5 (IL, IN, MI, OH and WI) states have 5 (IL, IN, MI, OH and WI) states have gross job losses greater than gross gross job losses greater than gross job gains in 2000Q3 – NY and PA only job gains in 2000Q3 – NY and PA only 2 that didn’t2 that didn’t
Began showing negative job growth 2 Began showing negative job growth 2 quarters prior to national dataquarters prior to national data
3 (IN, MI, WI) have gross job losses 3 (IN, MI, WI) have gross job losses greater than gross job gains 2000Q3 greater than gross job gains 2000Q3 through 2001Q4through 2001Q4
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Great Lake StatesGreat Lake States
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RecoveryRecovery
Gross job losses declined rapidly in most Gross job losses declined rapidly in most all states after 2001Q4all states after 2001Q4
Only 13 (AZ, GA, HI, ID, KS, LA, MS, NE, Only 13 (AZ, GA, HI, ID, KS, LA, MS, NE, NV, SC, TX, UT, WY) states show gross job NV, SC, TX, UT, WY) states show gross job gains in 2006Q3 greater than gross job gains in 2006Q3 greater than gross job gains in 1996Q3gains in 1996Q3
Since 2003Q3 less than half of all states Since 2003Q3 less than half of all states show gross job gains less than gross job show gross job gains less than gross job losses in 2 quarters or morelosses in 2 quarters or more
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RecoveryRecovery
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RecoveryRecovery
29 states have gross job losses 29 states have gross job losses greater than gross job gains in greater than gross job gains in 2006Q32006Q3• CA, MO, NY, OH and PA show lowest CA, MO, NY, OH and PA show lowest
levels of gross job gains ever in 2006Q3levels of gross job gains ever in 2006Q3 On the brink of another recession or On the brink of another recession or
just temporary adjustment from just temporary adjustment from extremely low levels of gross job extremely low levels of gross job losses seen in 2006Q1?losses seen in 2006Q1?
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Trends in Gross Job GainsTrends in Gross Job Gainsand Gross Job Lossesand Gross Job Losses
Difference between summed gross job Difference between summed gross job gains and summed gross job losses from gains and summed gross job losses from 2002Q1 – 2006Q3 is positive in all but 5 2002Q1 – 2006Q3 is positive in all but 5 statesstates
However, 22 states have declining trends However, 22 states have declining trends for gross job gainsfor gross job gains
Trends for gross job losses showing faster Trends for gross job losses showing faster declines than trends for gross job gains is declines than trends for gross job gains is how many states are realizing job growthhow many states are realizing job growth
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Trends in Gross Job GainsTrends in Gross Job Gainsand Gross Job Lossesand Gross Job Losses
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Regional TrendsRegional Trends
Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ, PA, VA, WV)Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ, PA, VA, WV)• Only 6 states nationally have larger Only 6 states nationally have larger
difference between gross job gains and difference between gross job gains and gross job losses than VA over the past 5 gross job losses than VA over the past 5 yearsyears
• PA has not had a quarter where gross PA has not had a quarter where gross job losses exceed gross job gains since job losses exceed gross job gains since 2003Q3 and has only happened in 2 2003Q3 and has only happened in 2 quarters in MD since 2003Q1 (2006Q2 quarters in MD since 2003Q1 (2006Q2 and 2006Q3)and 2006Q3)
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Regional TrendsRegional Trends Northeast and MidwestNortheast and Midwest
• Only 5 (CT, IA, MN, NE and SD) states Only 5 (CT, IA, MN, NE and SD) states have positive trends for gross job gains have positive trends for gross job gains and declining trends for gross job losses and declining trends for gross job losses since 2002Q1since 2002Q1
• Only 4 (IA, MN, NY and WI) states are in Only 4 (IA, MN, NY and WI) states are in the top half of states in regards to the top half of states in regards to differences of summed gross job gains differences of summed gross job gains and summed gross job losses since and summed gross job losses since 2002Q12002Q1
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Regional TrendsRegional Trends
West and SoutheastWest and Southeast• Six (AZ, CA, FL, NV, TX and WA) states Six (AZ, CA, FL, NV, TX and WA) states
showing the largest positive differences showing the largest positive differences between summed gross job gains and between summed gross job gains and gross job losses since 2002Q1gross job losses since 2002Q1
• Only 7 (AK, CA, KS, KY, MO, NC and TN) Only 7 (AK, CA, KS, KY, MO, NC and TN) states out of 27 showing declining states out of 27 showing declining trends in both gross job gains and gross trends in both gross job gains and gross job losses since 2002Q1job losses since 2002Q1
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SummarySummary
Short-run ebbs and flows of Short-run ebbs and flows of economic activity and job growth are economic activity and job growth are unavoidableunavoidable
State level BED time series data will State level BED time series data will prove useful in understanding the prove useful in understanding the underlying labor market forces underlying labor market forces driving employment dynamicsdriving employment dynamics
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Contact InformationContact Information Eric SimantsEric Simants
• [email protected]@bls.gov• 202/691-5193202/691-5193
Dave TalanDave Talan• [email protected]@bls.gov• 202/691-6467202/691-6467
Group Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]
