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•Enterprise information
systems
•Business model
•Business process modeling
•Database systems
Todays IT
Computer networks
Sensor networks
Data warehouse, ERP and CRM systems
New business model
The next decade technological changes
The Internet Of Things. Evans predicts the number of Internetconnected “things” will reach 50 billion—more than six devices for every person on Earth—by 2020.
The Zettaflood Is Coming. This year the world is creating 1.2 zettabytes of unique data, mainly as a result of high-definition video. Evans expects 91% of Internet data will be video by 2015.
Next decade...
Wisdom Of The Cloud. by 2020, one-third of all data will live in the cloud. “Already, the cloud is powerful enough to help us communicate through real-time language translation,”
The Next Net. The speed of network improvements. Today we have 38 always-on connections and more than 50Mbps of bandwidth. By 2021, we expects the speed to his home will increase by 3 million times.
Next decade ...
The World Is Flat And So Is Your Technology. With always-on connectivity, social networking has the power to change cultures, as with the Egyptian revolution. A smaller world also means faster information dissemination. “The dissemination and consumption of events are going from ‘near time’ to ‘real time,’ ”
Next decade...
The Power Of Power. Evans believes that solar alone can meet the world’s energy needs. To address today’s global demand for energy, 25 solar super sites—each consisting of 36 square miles—could be erected in just three years.
Next decade...
It’s All About You. More items will move from physical to virtual. Today, we download e-books and movies rather than buy books and DVDs. A technology called 3D printing will allow us to instantly manufacture many physical items.
Next decade...
The Next Dimension. Virtual humans will be added to the work force. By 2025, says Evans, the robot population will surpass the number of humans in the developed world. By 2035, robots could completely replace humans in the workforce.
Next decade...
Another Family Tree. In the next 10 years, Evans believes medical technologies will grow vastly more sophisticated as computing power becomes available in smaller forms. Devices such as nanobots and the ability to grow replacement organs from our own tissues will be the norm.
Next decade...
You…Only Better. Taking the medical technology idea to the next level, healthy humans will be given the tools to augment themselves. While their early use will be to repair unhealthy tissue or fix the consequences of brain injury, eventually designer enhancements will be available.
Evolutionary approach to systems
Evolution is a fact of life. Environments and the species that operate within them – living, artificial, or virtual – evolve.
Evolution has been credited with the most advanced biological species that has lived on earth. The ability to evolve has also come to be treated as a prerequisite for the survival of a species.
Software evolution
In particular, there has been considerable research on software evolution, focusing on code reengineering and migration, architectural evolution, software refactoring, datamigration and integration.
Adaptive systems Stuart Kauffman is a biologist who has been closely associated with
the Santa Fe Institute. Kauffman was fascinated with the origin of life and the interesting question of how it was that living things appeared out of the molecular stew bubbling on a young planet. Based upon a combination of computer modeling and laboratory research. Kauffman came to the startling conclusion that everything seemed to happen pretty much by itself. Or, as he says with mantra - like regularity in his book,"At Home in the Universe" - "Order for free!" More specifically, Kauffman found that given certain very simple preconditions, order happens. And not just any order, but highly complex order characteristic of living systems, which he calls Complex Adaptive Systems. They are complex in that they consist of multiple parts aggregated in myriad ways, addaptive in that they are constantly changing to meet the requirements of a shifting environment and a system in that these parts not only fit together but do so in a purposeful fashion. In short they do something.
The essential preconditions
The essential preconditions according to Kauffman are as follows:
(1) A relatively safe, nutrient environment,
(2) Diversity of elements,
(3) Complexity of connection,
(4) Search for fitness,
(5) Sparse prior connections,
(6)Being at the edge of chaos.
Technical progress and innovation
05/25/06 © USC-CSE 21
The Future of Systems and Software
Eight surprise-free trends
1. Increasing integration of SysE and SwE
2. User/Value focus
3. Software Criticality and Dependability
4. Rapid, Accelerating Change
5. Distribution, Mobility, Interoperability, Globalization
6. Complex Systems of Systems
7. COTS, Open Source, Reuse, Legacy Integration
8. Computational Plenty
Two wild-card trends
9. Autonomy Software
10. Combinations of Biology and Computing
05/25/06 © USC-CSE 22
Computational Plenty: Process Implications
New platforms: smart dust, human prosthetics (physical, mental)
New applications: sensor networks, nanotechnology
Enable powerful self-monitoring software
Assertion checking, trend analysis, intrusion detection, proof-carrying code, perpetual testing
Enable higher levels of abstraction
Pattern programming, programming by example with dialogue
Simpler brute-force solutions: exhaustive case analysis
Enable more powerful software tools
Based on domain, programming, management knowledge
Show-and-tell documentation
Game-oriented software engineering education
Market requirements and competitors
Answer: Adaptivity
1) Goal modeling and domain modeling
2) MDA
Process models and tuning
SAT
Optimization
2) Rule engines - Drools
General conditions:laws, environment
Computational models of law
What is law: 1) notation
What is law: 2) rules
Development process
Some prominent dates from this analysis
We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023.
We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for one cent around the year 2037.
We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2049.
We achieve one Human Race capability (2 * 10^26 cps) for one cent around the year 2059.
Vertical dimension
Business model
Integration model
Application architecture
Implementation architecture
Lifecycle of information system
Waterwall method
Spiral method
Iterative (RUP)
The Rational Unified Process captures many of
modern software development's best practices in a
form suitable for a wide range of projects and
organizations:
• Develop software iteratively.
• Manage requirements.
• Use component-based architectures.
• Visually model software.
• Continuously verify software quality.
• Control changes to software.
The core process workflows are divided into six core
“engineering” workflows:
1. Business modeling workflow
2. Requirements workflow
3. Analysis & Design workflow
4. Implementation workflow
5. Test workflow
6. Deployment workflow
And three core “supporting” workflows:
1. Project Management workflow
2. Configuration and Change Management workflow
3. Environment workflow
Business model
Business model components
• [Product innovation] What business the company is in, the product innovation and the value proposition offered on the market.
• [Customer relationship] Who the company's target customers are, how it delivers them the products, and how it builds a strong relationships with them.
• [Infrastructure management] How the company efficiently performs infrastructure or logistics issues, with whom, and as which kind of virtual enterprise.
• [Financials] What is the revenue model (transaction, subscription/membership, advertising, commission, licensing) and the cost model (cost of goods sold, operating expenses for R&D, sales and marketing, general and
administrative)?
Business model ontology
Business model components
Product innovation
Customer relationship
Customer relationship
INFORMATION STRATEGY. The objective of the information
strategy is related to information gathering in order to excel in
customer relationship (e.g. through personalization and
profiling).
The information strategy aims at discovering new and profitable
business opportunities and to ameliorate customer satisfaction.
Data warehousing, data mining and business intelligence are
important technologies that allow managers to gain insight on
their customers buying behavior.
These insights can be used to create what Hamel (Hamel, 2000)
calls the positive feedback effect.
FEEL & SERVE (channels). This element refers to the way a
firm “goes to market” and how it actually “reaches” its customers
(Hamel, 2000). This means a company must define its channel
strategy : either indirect or direct channels, operated by the firm
or provided by a third party (e.g. agent, intermediary). ICT, and
particularly the Internet, has a great potential to complement
rather than to cannibalize a business’s channels (Porter, 2001).
Direct selling over the Web could improve margins, whereas
selling through new Internet mediation services (cybermediaries)
(Sarkar et al., 1995) could mean new market opportunities. Of
course the expansion of the range of channels also increases the
potential of conflicts between channels (Anderson et al., 1998)
and demands strong management.
Customer relationship components
Customer relationship components
TRUST & LOYALTY. It is essential to establish trust between
business partners when the business environment becomes
increasingly virtual and the implicated parties do not necessarily
know each other anymore before conducting business. There
exists mechanisms to build trust in ebusiness environments, such
as virtual communities (Hagel et al., 1997), performance history,
mediation services or insurance, third party verification and
authorization, and, clear privacy policies (Friedman, 2000;
Dimitrakos, 2001). Customer loyalty can be understood as the
outcome of the customer’s trust and satisfaction.
Infrastructure management
Infrastructure management components
ACTIVITY CONFIGURATION. The main purpose of a
company is the creation of value that customers are willing to
pay for. This value is the outcome of a configuration of
inside and outside activities and processes. To define the
value creation process in a business model we use the value
chain framework (Porter et al., 1985) and its extension, as
defined by (Stabell et al., 1998), who add the concept of the
value shop and the value network.
Infrastructure management components
PARTNER NETWORK. The partner network outlines, which elements
of the activity configuration are distributed among the partners of the
firm. Shrinking transaction costs make it easier for firms to vertically
disintegrate and to reorganize in partner networks.
RESOURCES. In order to create value, a firm needs resources
(Wernefelt, 1984). Grant (Grant, 1995) distinguishes tangible, intangible,
and human assets. Tangible resources include plants, equipment and cash
reserves. Intangible resources include patents, copyrights, reputation,
brandsand trade secrets. Human resources are the people a firm needs in
order to create value with tangible and intangible resources.
Financials
Financials components
REVENUE MODEL. This element measures the ability of a firm to
translate the value it offers its customers into money and therefore
generate incoming revenue streams. A firm’s revenue model can be
composed of different revenue streams that can all have different
pricing models. The new pricing mechanisms enabled by ICT
should be used in order to maximize revenues. Particularly the
Internet has had an important impact on pricing and has created a
whole new range of pricing mechanisms (Klein et al., 2000).
COST STRUCTURE. This element measures all the costs the firm
incurs in order to create, market and deliver value to its customers.
It sets a price tag on all the resources, assets, activities and partner
network relationships and exchanges that cost the company money.
PROFIT MODEL. This element is simply the outcome of the
difference between the REVENUE MODEL and the COST
STRUCTURE. Therefore it can be seen as the culminating point
and as an expression of the entire e-business model ontology.
Whereas PRODUCT INNOVATION and CUSTOMER
RELATIONSHIP shall maximize revenue, an effective
INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT shall minimize costs and
therefore optimize the profit model.
The REVENUE MODEL increases the company's PROFIT (or
diminishes its LOSS) whereas the COST STRUCTURE decreases
PROFIT (or increases LOSS).
Financials components
Business process modelling
ebXML compliant
system
Business Profiles
Business Scenarios
ebXML
Registry
XML
Request Business Details
1
Build Local System
ImplementationRegister Implementation Details
Register COMPANY A Profile
3
2
5Agree on Business Arra
ngement4
Query about COMPANY A profile
DownloadScenarios and Profiles
DO
BU
SIN
ES
S T
RA
NS
AC
TIO
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6
COMPANY A
COMPANY B
ebXML compliant
system
Business Profiles
Business Scenarios
ebXML
Registry
XML
Request Business Details
1
Build Local System
ImplementationRegister Implementation Details
Register COMPANY A Profile
3
2
5Agree on Business Arra
ngement4
Query about COMPANY A profile
DownloadScenarios and Profiles
DO
BU
SIN
ES
S T
RA
NS
AC
TIO
NS
6
COMPANY A
COMPANY B
ebXML compliant
system
Business Profiles
Business Scenarios
ebXML
Registry
XML
Request Business Details
1
Build Local System
ImplementationRegister Implementation Details
Register COMPANY A Profile
3
2
5Agree on Business Arra
ngement4
Query about COMPANY A profile
DownloadScenarios and Profiles
DO
BU
SIN
ES
S T
RA
NS
AC
TIO
NS
6
COMPANY A
COMPANY B
Project
1) Business model
2) Database in Access
3) Business processes description Using Bizagi modeler
4) Balanced scorecard
Questions?
