Business intelligence - why do we need it.pptx

Business Intelligence, why

do we need it?

EMIG Business

Development Group

XXth Meeting

Black Swan Analysis

19th March 2015

Black Swan Analysis Ltd 2015 2

Formed in 2007, Black Swan Analysis is devoted

exclusively to delivering high-quality data

analysis, forecast modelling, and market

research within the healthcare sector that

generates insightful outputs that make business

decisions clear for our clients.

Who are Black Swan Analysis?

We are not afraid to challenge the status quo by turning a

healthcare problem on its head to deliver the optimal solution for

our clients. Our understanding of patient epidemiology, pathology,

forecasting, proprietary databases and wealth of experience on

the client side has been a true differentiator for us and an asset

to both the company and our clients.


What is Business Intelligence?

Different definitions around the industry…

… is a data analysis process aimed at boosting business performance by

helping corporate executives and other users make a more informed

decisions – Margaret Rouse (Whatis.com)

…is the set of techniques and tools for the transformation of raw data

into meaningful and useful information for business analysis purposes

- Wikipedia

…enables strategic decision making with the right data, in the

right place, at the right time – PwC Consulting Services


What activities does it comprise?

• Market research

• Desk research

• Competitive Intelligence

• Forecasting

• Modelling

• Segmentation

• Data analysis

• Market landscaping

• Brand tracking & performance

Black Swan Analysis Ltd 2015

Pre-Clinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Approval Life-cycle

5

Where & when should it be used?

Risk

Value

Epidemiology &

target segments

Clinical comparator

& benchmarks

Sales Potential

Treatment Pathways

CI

Portfolio Dynamics

Positioning

Research

Market dynamics

Customer

segmentation

Profile testing

Forecasting

scenarios

Tracking &

Benchmarking

Life-cycle

management

Case Studies

Business Intelligence at Work


Case Study #1

CLIENT SITUATION

• Biotech company developing a Super Paramagnetic Iron Oxide (SPIO)

base contrast agent – licensed from ISIS Innovation

• Looking for investment (~£5M) to fund development through Phase 2

(currently had £2M)

• Lead indication is for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) with the follow-on being

Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM)

• Investment forecast conveyed $800M peak sales with the “lion share”

of the revenue being driven by GBM

MS

GBM


Case Study #1

BI SUPPORT REQUIRED:

• Market Landscape/Market Research

• Patient Segment/Sizing

• Forecast Model


Case Study #1

OUTCOME

• Investment lacking in opportunity - $800M

for an MRI agent for MS

• Issues with mid-understanding the market

dynamics in a diagnostic market – incidence

vs. prevalence

• Company folded, no investment forthcoming

Could have done differently?

• Understand better the challenges with SPIO agents

• Understand the target patient populations and the diagnostic

algorithm fit

• Look at adjacent areas that could benefit from the clinical profile


Case Study #2

CLIENT SITUATION:

• Investor meeting imminent

• Discovery that commissioned forecast

model deeply flawed

• Requirement for solid information,

quickly, robust enough for due diligence


Long term need: Full analysis and rebuild of the asset’s potential,

identifying a full development and life-cycle plan across a range of

associated conditions.

Case Study #2


Immediate need: Rapid requirement for solid information, robust

enough for due diligence, securing investment


Case Study #2

OUTCOME:

• Required investment was raised – client is still in business!

• Second phase of work was initiated to work

through the clinical & commercial

application of the agent

• Client & investors have a clear road-map

laying out development through to

commercialisation with risks & targets

identified


Case Study #3

• In-licensing opportunity, short time frame but robust, complete

answer required.

CLIENT SITUATION:

• Completely new, undeveloped area.

• Should they buy the asset, and if so was the

asking price right?


Case Study #3

Thorough market landscape & forecast, including estimates of

potential patient population, install-base of new diagnostic and

likely adoption of the new product in this context.

• Epidemiology

• Market model

• Market research & patient segmentation

• Sensitivity analysis



Case Study #3

Client decided that this particular asset was over-valued and timing

not optimal for them to get into the therapy area. However, they did

search for and acquire another asset in the same field two years

later on once both the diagnostic and MOA had been established.

OUTCOME:


Case Study #4

CLIENT SITUATION

• Biotech company developing an Optical

Molecular Imaging technology

• Sufficient funding to support the development

of short-list of indications through to

commercial availability

• Need to develop the most optimal approach with their portfolio

of opportunities to get to a “self-sustained” business

• Their investors required a level of clarity on which programs their

investments were being spent


Case Study #4


Immediate need: Portfolio optimisation –

able to take a long list of potential

candidates and rank them by commercial

and technical attributes to arrive at a

short-list.

Long term need: Full analysis of the short-list of candidates

with an outline clinical plan, market landscape, competitive

intelligence and forecast model. Grouping the different

opportunities into franchises (Oncology, GI, Respiratory)


Case Study #4

• Clear strategy on the list of development priorities and in-licensing

opportunities

• Options for future development if current programs fail or need for

attracting out-licensing funding

• Investors had clear understanding of the “road-map” for

development and the business, and now have the tools to attract

further investments at international investment conferences

OUTCOME:


Case Study #5

CLIENT SITUATION

Marketing rights for a current asset had been licensed out to another

company to market it in the region in question. The opportunity was

coming up to take back the asset, but would need to invest in setting

up a local affiliate office.


Case Study #5

Assessment of the 4 key territories in the region and robust five year

forecast to support the decision.

Total Treated Patients Derived from Audit data

Total CHBV

Extrapolation of Audit data

• Epidemiology – to include

diminishing ‘at risk’ population

• Market model & forecast

projections

• Likely pricing / volume volatility

• Short term forecast projection

• Longer term forecast projection

based on ‘embedded’ disruptive

events



Case Study #5

Client decided that there was sufficient revenue to justify establishing

a local affiliate office. In the longer term, other opportunities for

commercialisation of other assets in their portfolio would further

justify the financial reason for presence in the new region.

OUTCOME:


Final Thoughts

Before you spend millions, invest a little to decide

if it’s the right decision at the right time made on

the basis of the right information.

“Do I fully understand the risk involved with

commercialising this healthcare asset?”

Take a pro-active approach to BI and turn those Black

Swans into White Swans


Questions

Moorbridge Court

29-41 Moorbridge Road

Maidenhead, Berkshire

SL6 8LT

Tel: +44(0)1628 621 790

Contact Details: [email protected]

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]









Case Study #6

• New product launch imminent (accelerated development based on

outstanding clinical outcomes).

• No current view on tactical demand forecast, but had received a

forecast model from Global counterparts.

• Global model lacked critical market drivers, plus did not use

methodology conducive to capturing impact of changing treatment

paradigms.

CLIENT SITUATION

• Needed their own model which they understood,

captured their key market drivers and barriers to

enable them to explore the market and generate

sales forecast options that they had confidence in.


Case Study #6

• Dynamic market model based on clinical algorithms and likely to

capture and predict disruptive treatment events and new product

launches.

• Ability to factor in market access programmes & non-commercial

supply.


• Flexibility to adjust treatment length for

their product to estimate ranges of supply

required in first year of launch


Case Study #6

OUTCOME:

Client was able to meet Global reporting timelines, feel confident in the final

forecast – input and alignment with the entire product team.

Team was able to explore key sensitivities and understand what actions they

would need to take.

More visibility around current and future competitors in each of the treatment

settings they would gain a licence for, leading to deeper insight around

where they could gain business.

Documents

Business intelligence - why do we need it.pptx