Dakaranditsfuture:heavytrendsandscenarios

ByDrCheikhGuèye,HeadofForsightandstrategyatEndaThirdWorld

•  WhatwillbethefutureofAfricanciAesaccordingtoDlamini-Zumainhisimaginaryemail,readattheopeningoftheAUsummitinAddisAbabainJanuary2014"TheAfricanci-es–Africabecamein2051aconfedera-onof states - are connected by theAfrican Express Rail, a high speed trainwhich allows to visit the whole of Africa in a month. The railroad isbordered by highways, a pipe carrying water, gas and oil, and datatransmission cables. "Mastering, integrated planning and execu-on, attheirtoplevel“

•  In theperspecAveof anemergingAfricaby2063, ciAesmustplaya keyroleinthis"renewedvision"bytakingaparamountroleasdriversoftheeconomy, territorial superstructures and melAng pot of modernizaAonandidenAficaAon

•  Dakar is one of the ciAes that embody the conAnuous

integraAon of urban Africa into the world economy whilstconcomitantly replicaAng producAon and consumpAon habitsandtrends.

•  Like other major African ciAes, Dakar is an epitome ofcontrasAng and fragmented landscapes characterized by thecoexistence of “tradiAonal/local” urban spaces (dominantinformal economic acAviAes and habitats) side by side with“world class” ones (quality brick andmortar buildings, verAcalconstrucAons,etc.)andinbetweenthetwo,themodernmiddleclasshousing(borrowedarchitecturalstyles,mortgages,etc.).

TheDakarregionislocatedintheCapVertpeninsulaandcoversanareaof550km²,or0.28%ofnaAonal

territory

T h e R e g i o n ' surbanizaAon rate is88.4%in1976,roseto98.7%in2014

Thefaceof theSenegalesemetropolishaschanged. Ithasextendedeastwardandswallowedupanumberofsurroundingareas includingundevelopedonesthataredifficult tomanage.Butat the sameAme, it is growingupwardsandmore thickly populated, fuelled by an unrelenAng urban growth that hashighlightedDakar’shypertrophyandoverdevelopmentcomparedtotherestofthecountryaswellas thecountry’soveralldevelopmentcharacterizedbytheimbalancebetweentheWestandtheInteriorofthecountry.ThelevelofurbanizaAonis45.2%inSenegalaccordingtothe2013census,with49.6% of the urban populaAon concentrated in the Grand Dakar. With theintegraAon of the residents of Touba in the naAonal urban populaAon,morethan50%ofthepopula;onofSenegalisurban.

By2015,theurbanareahad3,330,692inhabitants.Fromthishyper-concentraAonofman and acAviAes (more than 80% of the economic acAviAes take place in DakarwhereasmostofthepopulaAonlivesinthecity’soutskirts,withinthesuburbs)

This ishowthetownisgraduallyfillingupofall thespaces, includingthemostdangerousand themost fragile,veryclose to the runwayof theairport,near fuel storage tanksandindustrial developments, on the coastal shore "MariAme Public Domain" which areunsuitableforhabitaAonandthereforenotadvisable,aswellasdangerousinmanyaspects.

Dakar’s urban landscape also reveals the mulAple and complex challenges ofcompeAngbutverydifferentprioriAes.Organizingandsolvingthesesocio-economicchallengesisaveritablemanagerialheadacheforthelocalauthoriAes.The noAceable dispariAes in the distribuAon of equipment, urban services, urbanacAviAes through spaAal planning, a noAceable absence of infrastructure andchallenges that originate from the city’s natural site are all clues to theagglomeraAon’sproblems

q AAeryearsofinformaldevelopment,planningapproachesaredemonstrablymoremature and have woken up to the need for foresight and beDer projec;onstrategies.ThesedonotconcernDakar’s innercityonlybutalsotheurbanareaofDakar and the Dakar-Thiès-Mbour triangle which now cons;tute the scales ofprojec;onofplanningandforesightexercises.

q Such iniAaAves areunfortunately replicatedbyoneNGOanddonor aner anotheronly tobeabandonedwhen theirproject cycleendsand then someoneelse comesalongandrepeatsthesamecycle.

MaintrendsofDakar’sdevelopment

•  DakarintheSenegalesespace:networkdistor;onsandpersistentEast-Westopposi;on

•  AnanalysisofrecentstaAsAcsenablesustoseethattheSenegalesespacesAllremainshighlyimbalanced.Dakaranditsimmediatecountryside(theregionsofThièsandDiourbel)conAnuetoheavilydominatetherestandsAllconsAtutethemainregionsoftheconcentraAonofnaAonalwealth..

•  Dakar:"Highdemographicimbalance"andvulnerabilitytoclimatechange:thecaseoffloods

•  InperipheralneighbourhoodsthishighpopulaAonisreflectedbydensiAesthatgoupto50,000inhabitantsperKm2,withariskofexposuretofloods.Duringthedroughtyears,thepopulaAonsseqledtheredespitealltherisks,includinginlowareas.

•  Today,withtheresumpAonofrainfallwithinthecontextofclimatedisrupAon,theyarecaughtinatrapbytheenormousquanAtyofwaterwhichcannolongerdrainitselformakeitswaytotheseaandotherareasdevelopedtothiseffect.

•  ThefloodsaffecttheenAredomainofacAviAes,includingthemostunexpected.Attheacademiclevelforexample,morethanonehundredschoolsconstructedinfloodedareasareaffectedeachyearandtheirstudentsdeprivedofschoolingforseveralmonths.

CHAPITRE2:L’ANALYSEDESGERMESDECHANGEMENTSDEL’AGGLOMERATIONDE

DAKAR:HYPERTROPHIEETMETROPOLISATION

•  Thetollgatehighway:auniquedriverofurbanisa;on•  Thetollgatehighwayhasliterallyshapedandrecomposed

theinteriorandperipheralneighbourhoodsthatitpassesthrough.KeurMassarforexample(cf.map5),aperipheralcouncillocatedatabouttwentykilometresfromDakarhas,withthepassageofthetollgatehighway,seenitspopulaAonincreasefromlessthan60,000inhabitantsin2002tomorethan200,000presently.

•  Similarly,itsurbantasksextendedbymorethaneightkilometresfromWesttoEast,thusswallowingupagreatpartoftheagriculturalandrurallandofthezone.

•  Thephenomenonofpolycentralisa;on•  WiththepolicyofdecentralisaAonthatmarksthebirthof

sub-divisional councils in the agglomeraAon of Dakar, anew phenomenon of polycentralisaAon, which is themovement of the consAtuAon of new centres within theneighbourhoodsand theperipheral areasaroundDakar isincreasinglybeingobserved.

•  This change is a major trend and an engine of changewhich makes the transport and movement system tochange but also the urban strategies among which arethose linked to housing and lodging. It also adds value inparAcular to real estate and economic value to thesespaces and contributes to increasing the price of housingandbuildingland.

•  Informalityofhousingandconstruc;onThe rampant urbanisaAon compounded by a very high populaAon growth and an

insufficient supply in the domain of housing, is translated in the towns by thedevelopment of informal housing (in precarious or irregular construcAons). Itrepresentssome25%ofurbanzonesandinDakaroccupiesmorethan30%ofthehabited surface area. The zones of spontaneous informal housing have thefollowingcommoncharacterisAcs:

•Irregularlanduse;•absenceofpriorgradingofthebaseofthehabitaAonzone;•lackofschedulingofthehousesandnarrownessofthestreets;• lack of adequate resources and infrastructures (schools, dispensaries, water,

electricity,sanitaAon,etc.);•irregularityandweaknessoftheincomesoftheinhabitants

•  Urbangovernance:complexifica;onandmetropolitanscaling

•  Environmentdegrada;onandincreasedurbanrisks

•  Scenario1.Dakar,urbancorridorsandthehinterland:linkingdes;nies

•  Ona regional level,Dakar is thewesternendof threeveryacAveurban corridors: Dakar-Thies-Touba, Dakar-Thies-Saint-Louis andDakar-Mbour-Kaolack. The most vibrant of these, Dakar-Thies-Touba,extendsover200kmand includes the largest ciAesof theSenegalese urban area. This dynamism is also one of the mainofficial reasons given to jusAfy the construcAon of the firstinterregional toll road in Senegal between Dakar and Touba (IlaaTouba).

•  FromthisperspecAve,theacAvityofDakarisdirectlyinfluencedbythatoftheinlandtownsandciAescloselyrelatedtothecapital.TheciAes along this axiswill account for the largest part of Senegal’surbangrowthinthe50yearstocomeandtranslateintoarapidandsteadyincreaseinthepopulaAonandsurfacearea.

Diffusiondel’urbanisa;onsurlecorridorDakar-Touba.Scénariopour2065

•  Scenario2.Dakar:Prospec;veanalysisoftheforma;onofan“urbanregion”

•  If we consider that over the last hundred years Dakar spread out fromWest to East over nearly 40 km, and that urban growth will onlyaccelerate, namely due to large urban development plans underway(urbancentres, large infrastructure), this scenario (Dakaren2065)couldbecomearealitywithinsomefinyyearsfromnow,i.e.2065atthelatest.

•  ForDakarandtheotherciAes,peripheralcentreswillplayamajorroleinthedynamicswhichcouldleadtothisscenario.Thosewhichareatquiteadistance from themain centre andwhose populaAon exceeds a certainthreshold(500inhabitantsandover)aremuchmorelikelytoaqractandretaintheirpopulaAonthanseeingpeopleleaveforthecapital.Thankstotheirproximitywith themaincentre, theystandtobenefitdirectly fromtheurbandevelopmenttrends.Insteadofbeing“absorbed”bythecapital,theywill rather successively be added to the urban cluster surroundingDakar.

•  Scenario3:Excessiveliberalisa;onandglobalisa;on

•  Looking at the governance choices and servicesDakar has experiencedover thelast30years, thetrendseemstobemovingtowardsgreater internaAonalizaAonof the city as part of a neoliberal globalised world which impacts the variousacAviAesofthecity.This is leadingtowardsaprivaAzaAonofeducaAonwiththearrival of foreign insAtuAons (Turkish, Iranian, American, BriAsh, French, etc.)providingbasictohighereducaAonofinternaAonalstandards.

•  Asforurbanwater,sanitaAonandwastemanagementandthatofothernetworks,aswell as infrastructure developments, French, Chinese, American, Spanish andPortuguesemulAnaAonalshavebeencompeAngformarketsharesover20yearsunder the impetus of the Breqon Woods insAtuAons, while the city of Dakar,lackinginvestmentcapacity,embarkedonaneweraof internaAonalfinancingofits programmes. Themunicipal financingprogrammeofDakar (PFMD in French)shows the city’s drive to take ownership of its internaAonally financedprogrammesandbondsmarkets.

•  Scenario4:Sustainablemanagementofhumanandenvironmentalrisks:inclusivityandsustainabledevelopment

•  ThefutureofDakarandtherunningofitsaffairscouldbequesAonedby

the risks associated with its exposure to the effects of globalenvironmental changes in an area which is already under pressure andbecause of its quasi-insularity, its exposure to the youth unemploymentAmebombwhichisweighingheavilyontheSenegaleseeconomy.

•  TheSustainableDevelopmentGoalno.11endorsedinSeptember2015inNew York becomes a priority reference point to make this scenarioachievable. “Make ci-es and human seIlements inclusive, safe, resilientandsustainable”.ThisnewagendacouldbecomeanewengineofDakar’sfutureanditscapacitytotackleitscomplexecosystemicchallenge.Dakarcould also take on the informal sector as an urban developmentmodelclosely resembling the idenAty and the world of the SenegalesepopulaAon.

Thanks for listening !