By Habekiristos BeyeneAgriculture, Natural Resource and

Environmental Statistics DirectorateWashington DC, March, 2015

Outlines1. Country Profile 2. Introduction3. Overview Large & Medium Scale Commercial Farms in

Ethiopia the Past and Present4. The Synopsis of Large & Medium Scale Commercial Farms

Sample Survey in Ethiopia5. The Survey Methodology Adopted, the Consequent

challenges and the lessons learned 5.1 The Scope and Coverage of LMCF Survey 5.2 Sample Frame, Sample design and Method of Data Collection Adopted 5.3 The Challenges Faced and the lessons learned 6. The Currently, adopted Innovative Approaches and the outcomes registered 7. Conclusion Remarks & Suggested Landmark

Approaches for the way forward

1. Country ProfileEthiopia: One of the world’s oldest civilizations & Africa's oldest independent country Apart from a five-year occupation by Mussolini's Italy, it has never been

colonized. The second Populous country in Africa with a total population of 90,000,000

and One of the biggest countries in east Africa (1.12 million Km2 ) . slightly less than twice the size of Texas

Served as a symbol of African independence throughout the colonial period, and was a founder member of the United Nations and the African base for many international organizations.

Climate: Tropical monsoon with wide topographic-induced variationTerrain: High plateau with central mountain range divided by Great Rift Valley

2. IntroductionAgriculture is the oldest primary activity in Ethiopia, at present

It employs 82% of the country’s total population, who solely depends on agriculture for their livelihood.

The sector contributes the lion share (Nearly 45 %) to the country’s GDP

It generates 60% of the country’s foreign earnings

It is the main source Of the domestic food supply and Raw materials for domestic Agro-IndustriesAbove all the sector is believed to be the main source of capital accumulation to be used as a base to undertake the take off process in establishing the future Industrialized Ethiopia

Though, Ethiopian agriculture have suffered from the use of backward and traditional farm implements and subsistence farming system that resulted to the sector’s poor performance for years.

However, the surplus production coupled with increased productivity that have been registered in recent years, indicated the agricultural system as a whole and the crop production sub sector i.e. both in private peasant holdings and large scale commercial farms in particular has great potential for change and improvement

2. Introd. Cont’dLooking at the history and the role of large scale commercial farms in Ethiopia's agriculture sector over the last 30 years, witnessed a dramatic evolution.

During the Derg rgime throughout the 1970's and 80's, the prevailing philosophy was that of state-control with very little investment while the huge investments in large-scale farming that had been registered in recent years were unthinkable.

In this regard, the decade of the 1990's was marked by growing market liberalization, where, the Ethiopian government, for the first time, pursued a national development strategy that focused on agricultural- led industrialization.

The focus on agriculture and privately held large scale farms and smallholder production continued throughout the 2000's and by 2010 it was clear that liberalization and greater private sector participation in agriculture was yielding results.

“Between 2001 and 2009 Ethiopia experienced average annual economic growth of over 8 percent. This was seven times faster than what was witnessed in the 1980s and two times faster than that of the 1990's,” Frazer noted.

A study carried by USAID “on Ethiopia's Policy Investment Framework (PIF) and its Implication in Ethiopia, pointed out that investment on agriculture, water, improved farm tools and machinery are lagging behind that caters for commercial farms specifically tuned to large scale staple food crops production.

2. Introd. Cont’dFollowing, the study the Ethiopian government in its five years Growth Transformation Program (GTP) document has perceived promoting investment on Large-scale commercial agriculture as having a number of clear benefits, The benefits included promotion of food security, creating jobs and transferring technology; highly profitable business; means of export promotion; enables capital accumulation; works under and with nature; environmentally-friendly business and a means to enhances land value, among others.GTP was basically prepared using statistical information generated by the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) a government sponsored institution mandated for the collection and dissemination of the country’s official statisticsAccordingly, the CSA used to collect, compile and disseminate all rounded agricultural information regarding large scale farms which were few in number initially and gradually multiplied in thousands. Following the recently observed rapidly growing expansion of large scale farms, the demand for the provision of comprehensive agricultural information with regard to these farms by the concerned stakeholders’ had increased more than ever.In addressing the data users demand and fill-in the existing data gap regarding these farms’, the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) had introduced innovative Techniques for timely data collection and dissemination.The focus of this presentation is therefore, to briefly discuss what were these innovative techniques, why called as innovative? The difference created …etc ???

3. Synopsis of Large Scale Farms Expansion in EthiopiaThough the government had given priority to the expansion of large scale farms by private investors recently, it is important to review the developmental stages undergone by these farms in Ethiopia. The remarkable periods in the history large scale farms in Ethiopia, were the period from 1980’s to 1990’s where the expansion of Large scale farms remained stagnant and to the recently i.e. from 1995 to 2015 where rapid expansion of these farms registered.According to written documents, the introduction of large scale farms in Ethiopia goes back to the Pre-Derg era, where government owned pilot state and research farms on the basis of Yugoslav model.The Yugoslav model farms located in pocket areas pave the way for the establishment of private commercial, state and intuitional farms in Awassa, Arbaminch, Zeway and Shewarobit; Later on the Yugoslav model farms located in different areas were transformed into well organized and relatively mechanized state, large scale private farms and, institutional farms which collectively called ‘Commercial farms’.Since then, large scale commercial farms in Ethiopia had been reorganized by undertaking, various structural and organizational adjustments with varying legal status including ownership over a number of economic policy changes that took place in 1980’s.Till 1989, however, the development and expansion of large scale farms was limited within widely dispersed few pocket areas, the promotional activity remained being the only responsibility of the government.

3. Synopsis of Large Scale Farms Cont’d

As a result, the contribution of these farms to the country’s gross total agricultural output was limited to about 2 percent only.However, right after the implementation of the free market economy, by the current Government, the private investment on large scale farms have started flourishing.Consequently, the contribution of these farms to the country’s gross total agricultural output had increased to about 7 percent.

Table 1 : Total Land Area and Average size of land per investor in Hectare by investors origins and region, 2002 - 2012

Killil / Region No. Ethiopian Investors

Total Land allocated in

Ha

No. Foreign

Investors

Total Land allocated in

Ha

Grand Total Land allocated

in Ha

Average Size of land per

investor

Somali - - 1 2000 2000 2000

Benshangul 12 56431 3 75000 131431 8762SNNPR 9 58360 3 21000 79360 6613

Gambella - - 11 241012 241012 21910Total 21 114791 18 339012 453803 11636

Cotton28.47%

Rice4.66%

Tea0.70%

Horticultural& Crops0.10%

Production of castor oil& cot-ton asprincipal

0.47%Edible oil Crops

8.15%

soya beans5.82%

Cotton,Soyabean5.16%

Sugar cane5.82%

Palm cereals, rice & Sugar cane

23.30%

Match Stick tree Plantation0.23%

Pongamia(Bio fuel)11.65%

Horticultural& Crops0.10% Ground nut farmaing & related

5.36%

Fig 1: Percentage distribution Land for Large & Medium Scale Farms by type of Crop Grown

4. Overview Large & Medium Scale Commercial Farms Sample Survey in Ethiopia

In Ethiopia, the history of generating quantitative agricultural information through conducting Annual Agricultural Sample Survey can be traced back to the 1980sThe then State Farms currently called as large Scale farms sample Survey was part and Parcel of the Annual Agricultural Sample Survey. Though, large Scale farms sample survey is said to be part and parcel of the AGSS, the agri data regarding the state farms used to be collected from secondary source i.e. from Administrative records of each farm on complete enumeration basis. Later on with the establishment of Ministry of State farms which was responsible to coordinate and follow up the activities and evaluate the performance the established state farms as well as the expansion & development of government owned large scale farms. .The situation has been created for the CSA to compile the agri-information from administrative records of the ministry on complete enumeration basis every year.In the year 2001/02 (1994 E.C.) the Central Statistical Authority (CSA) had launched the first ever government sponsored Agricultural Sample Enumeration where large scale farms complete enumeration was part & parcel of the sample enumeration. One year later after the 2001/2002 Large & Medium Scale Farms Census, Considering the cost and the skilled manpower required, the CSA prepared action plan to conduct large and Medium scale farms sample survey (LMSCFSS) annually.

4. Overview Large & Medium Scale Commercial Farms Cont’d

Then after, the CSA conducted two LMSCFS Surveys’ but failed to produce and disseminate the results to ultimate users’ the reasons that contributed for the failure are briefly discussed in the course of this presentation.

In 2007/08 the CSA had passed official decision for the termination of the LMSCFS Survey for two years, at the same time, CSA had also organized a technical team responsible for reviewing the survey methodology based on available statistical techniques and come up with improved Survey methodology that will help resume the annual survey.

After two and half year investigation the CSA technical team has come up with newly proposed survey methodology, where some of them found to be innovative that helped to sustainably perform the ALMSCFS survey from 2007/08 to date..

At present, the CSA in Collaboration with the World Bank, have launched the 2014/15 (2007 E.C.), LMSCFS Survey where data for data items listed on the World Bank modules are to be collected along with the CSA standard questionnaires.

A bout a week ago, the field data collection operation of he 2014/15 (2007 E.C.), LMSCFSS has been completed and at this point in time the editing, coding and the data entry activities are being carried out.

5. The Survey Methodology adopted, the consequent challenges & lessons learned

5.1 The Scope and Coverage of LMSCFS Survey

From 1980’s to 2002, the range of data items that the Annual LMSCFS Survey dealt with, includes:-

Area and production of both temporary and permanent crops, Land use i.e. total cropland area, fallow land, grazing land Agricultural practices, such as use of various inputs, quantity and cost of inputs

used Number of livestock and poultry by type , purpose, age and sex Number Farm machineries used by type and the Current market value of each Number of permanent & contract professional employee by type of profession

and …etc,.

The Annual Large & Medium Scale Commercial Farms Sample Survey Covered all the selected farms found both in Rural and Urban areas.

5.2 Sample Frame, Sample design and Method of Data Collection Adopted Considering the difficulties faced and the increasing budget request CSA had

decided to perform the LMSCF Sample Survey on annual basis where by the data collection operation to be carried out on selected farms i.e only few

farms to be covered Less Costly & manageable as compared with that of the previously used complete enumeration.

Require Small number field Staff but highly qualified Allow the collection of high quality data etc

Sample FrameThe sampling frame is a list of all operational Large & Medium Scale commercial farms found in the Country, With filled in

Identification particular of each farm type major activity the farm engaged with, the size of land area used for crop production and the type of major crop

grown by the farm and/or the number of livestock or poultry found in the farm …etc. Sample Frame Data set had already been created having the list of

operational commercial farms only. The already established Sample frame data set used to be updated for the

exclusion of closed non operational farms and for the inclusion of operational new entries.

Every year the selection survey covered farms is carried out using the updated Sample frame data set.

those farms which are selected directly and those selected by sample are identified based on this frame.

Then the lists of commercial farms to be covered by the survey are distributed back to the branch offices for the actual survey

Sample design Two separate sample designs are prepared for the Annual large &

Medium Scale Commercial Farms Sample Survey One for those farms engaged in crop production and one for those

engaged in Animal Husbandry Every year, before the sample selection was done, the cut off point for

the farms was decided. Separate cut off point for farms engaged in crop production and one

for those engaged in Animal Husbandry was set. Farms having total area/number of livestock above the cut off point are

selected with certainty where as farms having area/ number of livestock below the cut off point are sampled using probability proportional to size, size being the total area / number of livestock of the farms.

For farms involved in livestock simple random sampling technique is used for selection.

Method of Data Collection

As observed from exemplary Country experience, Large & Medium Scale Commercial farms used to properly register and document each and every activity carried out in each and every plot of land under operation mainly for administrative purpose.

Therefore, the data collection operation was performed simply by compiling data from already existing administrative records found in each of the respective farm till recently.

In addition to compiling data from administrative records, from 2007/08 on wards the CSA introduced GPS for practical measure crop fields operated by the selected farm.

CSA has also introduced subjective method of data collection which involved personal interview to collect data on crop productivity and on use of farm inputs.

The introduction of GPS and conducting personal interview data collection methods had significantly improved the reliability and quality of raw data collected from each of the respective survey covered Farm.

5.3 The Challenges FacedAs mentioned above from 2007/08 on wards the CSA had attempted to undertake the LMSC Farms Sample Survey on annual basis, for two consecutive years, The reasons that contributed for the failure the two consecutive surveys were:

i. As in most surveys, difficulties were encountered during the data collection period the limited time allocated, as the questionnaires were quite long. The interviewers had to collect primary data from a considerable number of farms in a very short period of time. In addition, the geographical location of the farms presented a difficulty, as many of them were sparsely distributed in remote areas of the provinces. Which forced the enumerator generate forged information for unreachable farms.

ii. The reluctance on the part of farm decision-makers to cooperate and share information with the interviewers. This was one of the reasons why the planned number of samples was not met. There were also several instances when the respondents, especially those with very large farms, failed to keep their initial interview appointments with the interviewers after all the arrangements had been made.

iii. Considerable number of the large & Medium farms operators refusals to participate without prior appointment, and some gave vague answers and figures, underestimating area cultivated, volume of production and crop productivity, because of fear that revealed information might be used against them as grounds for tax fraudulence charges.

5.3 The Challenges Faced Cont’div. Un organized and poor field supervision and quality controlv. identification of data items in the design of questionnaires used for

frame data collection (i.e., absence of appropriate frame to be used for sampling purposes);

vi. absence of secondary data on the list of investors with their investment capital, type of farm, etc.;

vii. lack of coordination from concerned governmental agencies; among others.

6. The Currently, adopted Innovative Approaches After making a through revision and improvements on the previously adopted questionnaires, data collection methodology and related survey documents, the following innovative approaches came in to picture and implemented:

a. The questioners used in the past has been reduced, currently data is collected only for following data items

b. Area and production of both temporary and permanent crops,c. Agricultural practices, such as use of various inputs, quantity and cost

of inputs usedd. Number of livestock and poultry by type , purpose, age and sex

Which simultaneously reduced the time spent for both the enumerator and respondent as well as the refusal rate.

6. The Currently, adopted Innovative Approaches Cont’d

V. The Introduction of GPS and personal interview which helped to objectively measure the cropland Area and conduct interview with facts that will convince the respondent to give reliable information.

VI. Conduct intensive promotional work and awareness creation among investors

VII. Improve and standardize survey instruments including the design of a questionnaire for the purpose of sample frame data collection;

VIII. Annually updating the sample frame Data base; and setting the appropriate field data collection period.

IX. The Undertaking of timely, frequent and well organized fiel supervision. Carry on surprise Spot Check, undertake reasonable number of re-interviews and re-measurement, randomly check the field in questionnaires for consistency, and outliers and etc.

Figure 2 below shows the increasing trends of survey Covered Large and Medium Scale Farms after the implementation of the innovative approaches.

2007

/08

2008

/09

2009

/10

2010

/11

2011

/12

2012

/13

2013

/14

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1426 1284

2105

28512512

3148

3179

1130 1068

1766

22892310

2927

2987

Fig. 2 Trend of Survey Covered Large & Medium Scale Farms National:2007/08 - 2013/14

Planned Covered

Survey Years

Nu

mb

er

of

La

rge

& M

ed

ium

Sc

ale

Co

mm

erc

ial F

arm

s

7. Conclusion Remarks & the way forwardWith the introduction and implementation the so far mentioned innovative approaches, 8 years have passed since the CSA had created a capacity to sustainably undertake the Large & Medium Scale Commercial Farms Sample Survey on Annual basis and timely disseminate the results to ultimate users’.

These changes has resulted significant improvements in data quality, and the lessons are worth sharing to those that are facing similar problems as well as to those that are going to start commercial farm surveys in Africa and beyond.

Finally, the CSA is planning to further experiment, in the upcoming survey, on more innovative methodological changes in the areas of standardized coding system, implementing cost effective crop-cutting exercise, data collection through telephone interview, and preparation of Atlas of commercial farms.