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State of the Climate across Southwest Nebraska By Matt Masek March 22, 2012

By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

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Page 1: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

State of the Climate across Southwest Nebraska

By Matt MasekMarch 22, 2012

Page 2: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

OutlineReview of 2011 – 2012 Winter

Role of La Niña and Arctic OscillationSpring Outlook

One month (April) outlookThree month (April, May, June) outlook

Current Drought ConditionsDeveloping???

Quick look at the end of March Forecast

Page 3: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

La Niña 2011-2012For southwestern Nebraska, closer proximity to cool temperatures and drier conditions.

La Niña - Typical Wintertime Pattern

Page 4: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

What was 2011-2012 Winter? Temperatures were above normalPrecipitation (rain/snow) was above normalWhy - last year and this year both were La Niña years

La Niña was NOT the dominate player

Page 5: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

So what was the dominate player? Arctic Oscillation

Based on 1000 mb height anomalies pole ward of 20° N

2011-2012 Positive Phase

Only major snowstorm for southwest Nebraska

Page 6: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

2011-2012 WinterNorth Platte, NE

Facts for the 3 month period of December, January, & February (and the last 5 years).

Page 7: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

2011-2012 Winter North Platte, NE

Page 8: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

2011-2012 Winter North Platte, NE

Temperature Summary for North PlatteDec 1, 2011 to Feb 29, 2012

Smooth tan line is normalRed and blue lines are records

Precipitation Summary for North PlatteDec 1, 2011 to Feb 29, 2012 (dark blue)

Dec 1 2010 to Feb 28, 2011 (magenta)Smooth red line is normal

Page 9: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

2011-2012 Winter Imperial, NE

Temperature Summary for ImperialDec 1, 2011 to Feb 29, 2012

Smooth tan line is normalRed and blue lines are records

Precipitation Summary for ImperialDec 1, 2011 to Feb 29, 2012 (dark blue)

Dec 1 2010 to Feb 28, 2011 (magenta)Smooth red line is normal

Page 10: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

2011-2012 Winter Haigler, NE

Temperature Summary for HaiglerDec 1, 2011 to Feb 29, 2012

Smooth tan line is normalRed and blue lines are records

Precipitation Summary for HaiglerDec 1, 2011 to Feb 29, 2012 (dark blue)

Dec 1 2010 to Feb 28, 2011 (magenta)Smooth red line is normal

Page 11: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

Spring OutlookStill have a La Niña pattern (although it is weakening)Lingering effects from wintertime pattern and the positive AO

Polar Jet Stream – promotes more clipper systems or fast moving cold frontsFast moving fronts have limited time to produce significant moisture over the

high plainsDrier overall atmospheric conditions favor a wide swing of temperatures

from day to dayDue to warm winter over the Northern Plains there is a lack of snow cover –

this will help to modify (warm) cold arctic outbreaks

Page 12: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

Climate Prediction CenterForecast - April

Higher confidence in southwest Nebraska to experience below normal precipitation while equal chances for above, below or near normal precipitation for the rest of Nebraska. Higher confidence for above normal temperatures to continue over Nebraska and much of the lower 48 states.

Page 13: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

Climate Prediction CenterForecast - April, May, June

The forecast for April, May and June are higher chance for below normal precipitation over Western Nebraska, with equal chances for above, below or near normal precipitation over central and eastern Nebraska. There is higher confidence the desert southwest and much of the south and eastern U.S. will see above normal temperatures. However over Nebraska no strong signals results in equal chances for above, below or near normal temperatures.

Page 14: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

Climate Prediction CenterSummer Forecast – June, July, August

The ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) phase is expected to trend toward neutral this summer. This pushes the long range forecast to have more uncertainty for the summer across the central plains. Thus western and north central Nebraska see a forecast of equal chances for above, below or near normal precipitation and temperatures. Although recent trends for warm conditions over the desert southwest have a chance of expanding over the high plains.

Page 15: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

Current Drought State

Page 16: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

Current Drought State

Page 17: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

Drought Developing??

Page 18: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

Drought Developing??Areas to the southwest of Nebraska are being

monitored for developing drought conditions over the next several months.

Due to the uncertainty of precipitation for May and June, southwest Nebraska is not expected to see the development of the drought yet.

Below normal precipitation is expected over the next month or so. April is when this area begins to receive more significant rainfall from thunderstorms.

May and June are the wettest months of the year.

Page 19: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

Climate Prediction Center8 to 14 Day Outlook (Mar 29-Apr 4)

March to end and April begins with continued warm conditions. Low pressure system tracks across the southern plains. Western Nebraska likely to miss out on the moisture with this system.

Page 20: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

National Weather Service Online

Page 21: By Matt Masek March 22, 2012. Outline Review of 2011 – 2012 Winter Role of La Niña and Arctic Oscillation Spring Outlook One month (April) outlook Three

Final Thoughts for the Spring• Weakening La Niña to create tricky forecast for Nebraska• Higher confidence April will be warm• Higher confidence areas to the southwest – dry• Drought conditions may expand into southwest Nebraska, (May and June?) however uncertainty exists at this time.

Questions – [email protected]

The End – Questions???