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What Mathematical modelling has to do with infectious diseases
By Prof. J. B. ShuklaInternational Internet University for Research in Science and
Technology, HQ KanpurWebsite : www.iiurst.org
Formerly, IIT KanpurEmail: [email protected]
IntroductionFrom where shall I begin.Let us begin from the very beginningWhat is research?Research is to discover some new characteristics about
a system/situations which has not been explored before. “The greatest force on earth is the human soul (mind)
on fire” …Forsyth
“People see things and ask why. I see thinks that are not and ask why not” …George Bernard Shaw
Researchers therefore must have that kind of vision and mind for quality research
Introduction contd. CHIT JAL PAWAK GAGAN SAMIRA PANCH TATVA SE BANA SHARIRA ...Tulsidas
The survival of all living beings depends upon the following FIVE Tatvas (Resources) Air Water Earth Fire (Energy) Space(Environment in the Universe)
Therefore, our research must be directed towards conservation and preservation of these resources by using modern science and technology
The role of research should therefore be to preserve these resources provided by nature and not used them to the extend so that they do not remain available for future generation
Mathematical Model“An equation for me has no meaning unless it expresses the thought of God.”
S. RamanujanThought of God NatureNature includes any thing and every thing in this universe including planet earth.As mentioned before research must be focussed on nature and society.
Mathematical Model contd.Mathematics has permeated in all sciences.Physical Science, Environmental, Biological
Sciences, Social Sciences.
Systems
Math Models
Unknown and known variables
Mathematical relations among the variables and parameters
• All systems are governed by some laws, principles and hypothesis.
Models predicts the future.The future can not be experimented upon.Model predicts the system’s future behaviour on the basis of
what is known today.Mathematical models are complex and non linear O.D.Es/PDEJ
etc.Solution are difficult, as no. of unknown variables are large.They can be analysed using both quantitative techniques as
well as qualitative methods.Stability analysisValidations is needed.
System
Math. Model Solution
interpretationvalidation
Mathematical Model Cont.
Infection DiseasesThese are diseases which are transmitted by
infection.Factors affecting the spread of such diseases:• No. of susceptibles• No. of infectives• No of exposed persons • No. of removed persons• Rate of contact• Incubation period• Rates of removal• Genetic and immunological factors• Nature of diseases
Other Factorsi. Demographic (Human)ii. Environmentaliii. Ecologicaliv. Societal/Economicv. Growth of Vector, Carrier, Bacteria population.vi. Diffusion of population in the habitatvii. Convective effect caused by motion of the mediumviii.Migration between two habitats
Not better Better
Some More Factorsa) Isolationb) Nutritionc) Sanitationd) Medication Religion, Caste Creed. Social interaction Professional Interactions Interactions at work place.
Modes of Transmission
i. Direct Contact/Transmission• Direct contact may be with the infective or
with the disease agent.ii. Indirect Contact/Transmission Disease agent are passed on the susceptible
through the medium of some kinds.
XSusceptible
YInfective
Direct TransmissionType Pathway for
transmissionDiseases
Direct Contact Skin to skin mucosa to mucosa, sexual
STD, AIDS, Leprosy, Eye infection
Droplet infection Spray of droplets of saliva, other secretions by coughing, sneezing, spitting etc
Common old, T.B.
Contact with soil, etc. Direct contact of susceptible with disease agent in soil etc.
HookwormLarvae, tetanus
Indirect TransmissionType Pathway for
TransmissionDiseases
Vector, Carrier, borne
Vectors transmit infection by biting or by depositing infective material on food skin etc.
Malaria, Dysentery ,Typhoid fever by House fly, Cholera
Medium Borne Through the agency of food, water, ice, blood, serum, tissues, injection, cloths, soil, etc.
Typhoid fever (TB)
Air borne bacteria, viruses, Droplets, Infected Dust
Small droplets in the air may evaporate leave behind viruses bacterial which remain in the air and can get to susceptibles, Sneezing and spitting on the ground wall etc.
Chicken Pox, Measles, Influenza, H1N1, TB, etc
Aims/ Objectives of Study1) How fast a disease is spreading?2) How much of the total population has been
infected?3) How of much of the remaining will be
infected at a particular time/ location4) What are the causes and factors for the
spread of a particular disease5) What is the effect of control measures, if
any other the spread etc.
A General Epidemic modelX: Susceptible Y = Infective Z = Removed
Z1 = Isolation1
1
1
11 1
1
dXA XY dX Y Z k X
dtdY
XY dX Y Y YdtdZ
Y dZ ZdtdZ
k X dZdtN X Y Z Z
dNA dN Y
dt
Some Ideas1. 1. Non mixing models for the spread of
infections diseasesI. Effects of sanitationII. Effect of nutritionIII. Effects of medicationIV. Effects of awareness
2. Effects of environmental and ecological factors on the spread of infections diseases
3. Effect of diffusion (Movement of population)4. Effects of movement of convection effects on
the spread of infection diseases.
Non mixing modelβ-Interaction coefficient, rate of contracts.It should dependent upon the followingi. Spaceii. Social factors such as going together to Churches,
Temples, Dargahs, Malls, Fairs, Feats And Partiesiii. Office factors such as working in the same office,
department, building etc sitting on the same table.iv. Professional factors such as doing research
togetherv. Travel factors such as going to together in same
vehicle vocation doing the office vacationvi. Awareness of the disease
Non Mixing Models contd…Effect of Space
2 2
12 2
2 2
22 2
X Y XA X Y d dX d
t s s
Y Y YX Y d dY d
t s s
Effect of SanitationS = Sanitation variableB = Bacteria
0 1
0 0 1
( )
( )
( )
dXA S Y dX
dtdY
S Y dXdtdB
Y B BSdtdS
B S S BSdt
Effect of MedicationM= Variable for Medical support
Where B(M) to be defined suitably
0 0 1
( )
( )
( )
dXA M Y dX
dtdY
M Y dXdtdM
Y M M BMdt
Effect of NutritionH= Healthy Population Nu = Variable for
nutrition0 1
1
0 0
0
( )
( )
( )
dHA dH XN
dtdX
A Nu Y dX XNdtdY
Nu Y dX YdtdNu
Y Nu NudtN X Y H
dNA A dN Y
dt
Effect of Media AwarenessMe=Variable for Awareness
0 0
( )XY
( )
( )
e
e
ee e
dXA M dX
dtdY
M XY dXdtdM
Y M Mdt
How to Consider Environmental/Ecological EffectsFirst we consider the changes in
environmental/ecological factorsThen their effect on e human / agent (vector, bacteria
carriers etc).
N – Is the total human population E – Ecological density (biomass density)T – Density (Environmental factor)
0 1
0
0
1
(N) Q
( )
m
dE EE E EN
dT E
dTQ T
dtQ N Q QN
How to consider spatial effectsA simple case with convection and
diffusion 2 2
2 2
2 2
22 2
X X Y XU A x Y d dX d
t s s s
Y Y Y YU x Y d dY d
t s s s
Thanks