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about brookings The Brookings Institution is a private nonprofit organization devoted to research, education, and publication on important issues of domestic and foreign policy. Its principal purpose is to bring the highest quality independent research and analysis to bear on current and emerging policy problems. Interpretations or conclusions in Brookings publications should be understood to be solely those of the authors. Copyright © 2007 the brookings institution 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 www.brookings.edu All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press. a saban center at the brookings institution book Originally released as Analysis Paper 11, January 2007 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data Byman, Daniel, 1967– Things fall apart : containing the spillover from an Iraqi civil war / Daniel L. Byman, Kenneth M. Pollack. p. cm. “Originally released as Analysis Paper 11, January 2007”—T.p. verso. Summary: “Studies the history of recent civil wars to derive lessons regarding the impact of full-scale civil wars on the security, prosperity, and national interests of other states. Proposes recommendations for the United States as it confronts the pos- sibility of a similar conflict in Iraq and its spillover into the region”—Provided by publisher. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-8157-1379-1 (pbk. : alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-8157-1379-7 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Iraq War, 2003– 2. Civil war—Iraq. 3. Civil war 4. Peace-building. I. Pollack, Kenneth M. (Kenneth Michael), 1966– II. Title. DS79.76.B96 2007 303.6'4—dc22 2007012276 1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2 Printed on acid-free paper Typeset in Minion Composition by Peter Lindeman Arlington, Virginia Printed by Victor Graphics Baltimore, Maryland

Byman and Pollack

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Byman and Pollack

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  • about brookingsThe Brookings Institution is a private nonprofit organization devoted to research,

    education, and publication on important issues of domestic and foreign policy.Its principal purpose is to bring the highest quality independent research and analysisto bear on current and emerging policy problems. Interpretations or conclusions in

    Brookings publications should be understood to be solely those of the authors.

    Copyright 2007the brookings institution

    1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036www.brookings.edu

    All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the

    Brookings Institution Press.

    a saban center at the brookings institution bookOriginally released as Analysis Paper 11, January 2007

    Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication dataByman, Daniel, 1967

    Things fall apart : containing the spillover from an Iraqi civil war / Daniel L. Byman,Kenneth M. Pollack.

    p. cm.Originally released as Analysis Paper 11, January 2007T.p. verso.Summary: Studies the history of recent civil wars to derive lessons regarding the

    impact of full-scale civil wars on the security, prosperity, and national interests ofother states. Proposes recommendations for the United States as it confronts the pos-sibility of a similar conflict in Iraq and its spillover into the regionProvided bypublisher.

    Includes bibliographical references and index.ISBN-13: 978-0-8157-1379-1 (pbk. : alk. paper)ISBN-10: 0-8157-1379-7 (pbk. : alk. paper)

    1. Iraq War, 2003 2. Civil warIraq. 3. Civil war 4. Peace-building. I. Pollack,Kenneth M. (Kenneth Michael), 1966 II. Title.

    DS79.76.B96 2007303.6'4dc22 2007012276

    1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2

    Printed on acid-free paper

    Typeset in Minion

    Composition by Peter LindemanArlington, Virginia

    Printed by Victor GraphicsBaltimore, Maryland

    1379-1 ch0 frontmatter 4/16/07 3:11 PM Page iv