C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N

Tracking Progress: Coal

Marc PryorSupervisor, Procurement & Modeling Unit

California Energy Commission

December 1, 2015

C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N

Tracking Progress

• Energy Efficiency• Statewide Energy Demand• Renewable Energy• Electric Vehicles• Installed Capacity• Reliance on Coal• Transmission Expansion• Combined Heat & Power• Resource Flexibility• Once Through Cooling• American Recovery & Reinvestment Act of 2009• California Clean Energy Jobs Act Proposition 39

http://www.energy.ca.gov/renewables/tracking_progress/

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C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N

Expected Edits to October 2015 Coal Tracking Progress

• Page 1, 2nd paragraph: Correct Figure 1 reference from 1996 to 2007 and 2000 to 2007

• Page 1, Figure 1: Add San Juan 4 reduction between 2017 and 2018 (M-S-R and Anaheim)

• Page 5, Table 2:– San Juan 4: M-S-R and Anaheim exiting by 2018 (from 2022)– 2024 Imports: Replace note regarding San Juan 4 with note that

expected imports from IPP would be zero if repowering to NG occurs by 2024

• Page 8, Table 3: Add to Rio Bravo Poso note the expectation of RBP generating through at least 2026

• Page 8, 2nd paragraph: Revise to mention M-S-R’s action on San Juan 4 and results

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C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N

Historic: Coal In-State & Net Imports 1993-2014

(From CEC Energy Almanac)

4

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%19

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

14

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al G

ener

ation

In State Imports (net)

Low Water Yr

High Water YrHigh Water

YrTemp loss of some IPP gen

Loss of Mohave

C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N

Tracking Progress: In-State Historic by Type 2001-2014 (QFER Data)

5 -

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Ener

gy (G

Wh)

Wind

Solar

Hydro

Natural Gas

Coal

Biomass

Geothermal

Nuclear

C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N

Tracking Progress: Out-of-State CoalPercent of Share by Plant

(IEPR Filings)

6

Intermountain49%

Four Corners18%

Navajo14%

San Juan 9%

Reid Gardner 5%

Boardman 3%

Deseret 2%

2007

Intermountain64%

Four Corners20%

Navajo14%

San Juan 2%

2014

C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N

Tracking Progress: Coal(From QFER Data & IEPR Filings)

7

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Ener

gy (G

Wh)

Energy from In-State Coal and Pet-Coke Plants

Coal EnergyImports

Total EnergySupplies from Coal

Actual Expected

Reid Gardner (555 MW) & SDG&E's Boardman

Contract (86 MW)

ACE Cogen (108 mW)

Intermountain Repowers to Natural Gas (from EIA

Summer Capacity of 1,800 MW to Expected 1,200 MW

Combined Cycle)

Navajo: LADWP's Portion (477 MW)

5 GWF Plants (95MW)and Stockton Cogen (55

MW)

San Juan Unit 3 (496 MW)

To Biomass: Mt. Poso (64 MW, 2011); Buena Vista (18

MW, 2012); and DTE Stockton (50 MW, 2014)

Intermountain PartiallyOut-of-Service in 2012

(900 MW)

TXI Riverside (12 MW, 2008) and Hanford

(24 MW, 2011)

In-State Plants

Out-of-StatePlants

C A L I F O R N I A E N E R G Y C O M M I S S I O N

Drivers in Reduced Reliance on Coal

• California’s Emission Performance Standard– Baseload (Annual CF of at least 60%)– Investment of at least 5 years

• Revision $2.5 M– 1,100 lbs / MWh

• Price of Natural Gas– Lower than coal

• Other regulatory pressures– Retrofitting– Regional Haze Rule– Clean Power Plan– Fly ash– Mining activities

http://www.energy.ca.gov/emission_standards/

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