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Hydrology, management andrising water vulnerabili t y in theGangesBrahmaput raMeghna RiverbasinMukand S. Babel a & Shahriar M. Wahid a

aWater Engineering and Management, Asian Inst itute of

Technology, Khlong Luang, Pathumthani, Thailand

Available online: 27 Jun 2011

To cite this article: Mukand S. Babel & Shahriar M. Wahid (2011): Hydrology, management and

rising water vulnerabilit y in t he GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River basin, Water Int ernat ional,

36:3, 340-356

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Water International

Vol. 36, No. 3, May 2011, 340356

Hydrology, management and rising water vulnerability in the

GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River basin

Mukand S. Babel and Shahriar M. Wahid

Water Engineering and Management, Asian Institute of Technology, Khlong Luang, Pathumthani,Thailand

(Received 13 December 2009, accepted 23 April 2011)

A water vulnerability analysis is made of how sensitivity characteristics of theGangesBrahmaputraMeghna (GBM) River basin may affect adaptive capacity. Aco-riparian country perspective highlights the importance of local level management

actions. Results reveal that vulnerabilities in India and Bangladesh stem from hydro-logical and ecological factors, but are more linked to poverty and underdevelopment inNepal. Poor political governance and underinvestment in the water sector add to vul-nerability in Bangladesh and Nepal. Overall, Bangladesh is the most sensitive countrywhile Nepal has the least capacity to adapt.

Keywords: Water vulnerability; Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River basin; waterresources management

Introduction

The GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River basin (GBM), home to over 600 million people,

covers about 1.75 million km2 across five Asian countries: India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Chinaand Bhutan (Figure 1). The basin is plagued by floods and droughts, sedimentation in

the rivers and flood plains, and other environmental and water quality problems. Rapid

increases in population and unequal power relationships among the co-riparian countries

compound these problems.

This paper applies a flexible integrative framework to assess water-related vulnerabili-

ties of the GBM basin based on the available knowledge of the field and full consideration

of data availability and related constraints. Focus is on India, Bangladesh and Nepal, where

the vulnerabilities are greatest.

Methodology

Approach

The vulnerability of a system refers to its susceptibility to adverse effects and its ability

to cope with them. High vulnerability is the product of high sensitivity and low adaptive

capacity.

Here we use an index method to evaluate vulnerability, overlaying location-specific

vulnerability parameters based on system control factors. The functions of the water system

both societal (e.g. drinking water supply, irrigation, recreation etc.) and ecological (e.g.

Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

ISSN 0250-8060 print/ISSN 1941-1707 online

2011 International Water Resources Association

DOI: 10.1080/02508060.2011.584152

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Water International 341

Figure 1. The GangesBrahmaputraMeghna River Basin (GBM) (source: Water ResourcesPlanning Organization (WARPO) 2000).

maintenance of aquatic life) are identified from existing policy frameworks, bilateral

and multilateral agreements, and strategic management and action plans in the co-riparian

countries.

Selection of vulnerability indicators

A water systems vulnerability is composed of (negative) sensitivities to change and (pos-

itive) coping capacity. Sensitivity to change is based on the hydrological and societal

setting of the water system and its ability to render ecological functions. Adaptive capac-

ity is determined by physical, geopolitical and institutional conditions in the basin. A

comprehensive set of normative indicators from the international literature, adapted to the

GBM co-riparian country situations, is here identified.

Indicators are also chosen to measure water quality and the institutional setting related

to compliance. Specific categories of indicators chosen are as follows:

r Sensitivity:

Hydrological: water availability, natural disasters, land under severe water stress,

groundwater development and irrigation dependence.

Ecological: water quality, environmental compliance, deforestation, industrial

pollution and use of fertilizers.

Societal: population growth, population density, human development andpoverty.

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342 M.S. Babel and S.M. Wahid

r Adaptive capacity:

Physical: irrigation water-use efficiency, hydropower dependence, access to

improved water supply, access to sanitation and gross domestic product generation

from water use.

Geopolitical and institutional: government effectiveness, political stability, depen-

dence on transboundary water, development assistance for water and pesticide

regulation.

The indicators chosen are not exhaustive but allow an integrated view of the hydrological,

natural, human, social, governance and physical dimensions of water-related vulnerability.

Evaluation of vulnerability indicators

The following factors were considered in selecting indicators: the ability to measure vul-

nerability characteristics, diversity to capture a variety of attributes and the presence or

absence of thresholds. A description of the indicators is provided in Table 1.For indicators that did not have defined thresholds, world mean, world median or

world ratio were used as threshold values, following standard practice in the vulnerability

literature (e.g., Hamouda et al. 2009, World Economic Forum (WEF) 2002, South Pacific

Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) 2005). Spatial scale issues were given special

attention. This study uses a mix of national and basin levels primarily because processes

(e.g., geopolitical) operating at broader national scales affect some of the indicators but

contribute significantly to patterns of vulnerability at the local level. Contentious efforts

were made to aggregate data to the national scale to minimize the loss of information and

misleading conclusions.

Data and information related to key indicator values were obtained from established

data banks maintained by international organizations and other published sources (Table 2).

In order to ensure consistency while interpreting indicator values of different units or

different range, efforts were made to determine whether a value was good or bad. Indicators

that were absolute values were standardized for easier interpretation (Hamouda et al. 2009).

A cut-off of 5 was used for values that were so high that they could cause graphical distor-

tion when presented in radar diagrams. All standardization operations are shown in Table 3,

which also presents the indicators standardized values.

The standardized indicator values were aggregated or averaged within the sensitivity

(hydrological, ecological and societal) and adaptive capacity (physical, geopolitical and

institutional) framework. Strict numerical validity was not as important as the directions of

causality related to vulnerability outcomes.Equal weights were assigned among standardized indicators within the same category,

as the process of determination of weights can be biased and comparison of the final results

difficult.

Results and discussion

Water functions and issues

Pressure on the water resources of the GBM basin is mounting due to competing demands,

in particular in the Ganges, which is the most extensively exploited as it is the lifeline of

two of the three most populous states of India: Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Silt from the riversystem has built a large part of Bangladesh itself. Most of Bangladesh is directly dependent

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Tab

le1.

Descriptionofindicatorsandtheirrelationshiptovulnerability.

Ind

icatordescription

Relationshiptovulnerability

Wa

teravailability:annualfreshwateravailabilityof1700m3perperson

is

ta

kenasthethresholdforstressfuls

ituation

Highervaluescorrespondtolowervulnerability

Naturaldisaster:numberofaffectedp

er1millioninhabitantsfromflood

s

anddroughts

Highervaluescorrespondtogreatervulnerability

Landunderseverewaterstress:perce

ntofthecountryunderseverewater

stress,i.e.whereconsumptionexceeds40%oftheavailablewater

Higherpercentagesreflectgreatervulnerability

Groundwaterdevelopment:abstractio

nasapercentageofgroundwater

recharge


Irri

gationdependence:percentageofcultivatedareasdependenton

ir

rigation

Higherpercentagesreflecthighervulnerabilitybecause(1)

irrigation-based

agricultureisinvestmentintensiveand(2)rain-fedagricu

ltureisgenerally

moreefficient

Wa

terquality:compositeindexoffivekeyvariables:dissolvedoxygen,

pH,phosphorousconcentration,nitrogenconcentrationandelectrical

conductivity.Thesevariablesarein

theproximity-to-targetform,with

100indicatingthetarget

Lowervaluesreflectgreatervulnerability

Environmentalcompliance:numbero

fISO14001-certifiedcompaniesp

er

U

S$1milliongrossdomesticproduct

Highervaluesreflectlow

ervulnerability

Deforestation:changeintheforestareaisthetotalpercentchangeinbo

th

naturalforestsandplantationsbetween2000and2005

Higherpercentagesreflectlowervulnerability

Ind

ustrialpollution:measuredinmetrictonsofbiochemicaloxygen

demand(BOD)emissionsperkm3ofwater

Highervaluesreflectgre

atervulnerability

Useoffertilizers:measuresfertilizing

nutrientsusedperunitof

agriculturalarea


atervulnerability

Pop

ulationgrowth:meanannualrateofpopulationgrowth

Higherpercentagesreflectgreatervulnerabilityduetoincreasedwater

demands

Pop

ulationdensity


atervulnerabilityduetolocalizedstressonwater

resources

HumanDevelopmentIndex:measurestheaverageachievementsinthree

basicdimensionsofhumandevelopment:(1)lifeexpectancyatbirth;(2)

knowledge,asmeasuredbytheadultliteracyrate(withtwo-thirds

w

eight)andthecombinedprimary,secondaryandtertiarygross

enrolmentratio(withone-thirdweight);and(3)grossdomesticproduct

percapita(US$,purchasingpowerparity(PPP))

Highervaluesreflectlow

ervulnerability

Pov

erty:percentageofthepopulation

livingbelowthenationalpovertyl

ine


(Continued)

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Table2.

Indicatorvaluesofthe

GangesBrahmaputraMeghnaRiverBasin(GBM)co-ripariancoun

tries.

Indicatorva

lue

Indicator

Uni

t

Threshold

India

Bangladesh

Nepal

Datasource

Water

availability

m3perperson/year

235,000World

mean

521,006

414,786

71,274

EM-DAT

(2008)

Landunder

severewater

stress

%

>

25%Worldmean

33.5

8.8

0.9

Estyetal.

(2008)

Groundwater

development

Abstraction/recharge

>

25%

45.4

51.0

0

GGIS(20

04)

Irrigation

dependence

Percentofla

nd

>

17.9%World

mean

33.7

45.5

47.2

AQUASTAT(2008)

Waterquality

Index

100

80.6

75.5

72.27

Estyetal.

(2008)

Environmental

compliance

Industry/US$,

millionsgross

domesticproduct

67.5Worldmedian

1073

1676

227

Estyetal.

(2005)

Population

growth

%

>

1.1%Worldmean

1.4

1.6

1.9

UnitedNations

Develop

ment

Program

me(UNDP)

(2007)

Population

density

Person/km2

>

48/km2World

mean

334

1060

179

AQUASTAT(2008)

Human

development

Index

36%World

median

28.6

49.8

30.9

UNDP(2007)

Irrigationwater

useefficiency

%

>

38%World

average

53.0

40.0

22.0

AQUASTAT(2008)

Hydropower

dependence

%

>

25

5.23

1.85

30.71

Estyetal.

(2005)

Accessto

improved

watersupply

%

Documents

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