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California Drought 2014Charlton
October 22, 2014
The Economist, January 2014
The Drought of 2014
The San Joaquin Valley
The Southern Central Valley
Water Basics
Water Measurement The “Acre-Foot”
One “Acre-Foot” (AF) = 325,851 gallons of water
1 AF serves 1-10 families of 4 for one year, depending on the family use
Inversely proportional for amount of water used for landscaping and gardens
MunicipalPeople
AgriculturalFood
EnvironmentalEcosystems
1 AF
A ZERO SUM GAME
Who wins ?
Reservoir Storage is Very Low
DECISIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES !
Direct Consequences: The Predictable
Indirect Consequences: The Unforeseen
The largest single user of water in California is the ENVIRONMENT, which uses 48% of California’s water (an average of 39,000,000 AFA)
31.0% of California's available water goes to wild and scenic rivers, 8.5% is dedicated to instream flows 6.5% is required Delta outflow, and 2.0% is given to managed wetlands
The second largest user is AGRICULTURE which uses an average of 41% of California's water
This irrigates almost 29 million acres of farmland, Supports growth of 350 different crops. Actual agricultural water usage varies directly with annual rainfall
MUNICIPAL and industrial users consume about 11% of California’s water per year
California Water Allocation
Each group would like to have more
California Department of Water Resources
California Water
The Sierra Nevada Watershed
The state’s principal watershed
supplying more than 60 percent of
the developed water supply
One of the most significant natural
and biologically diverse regions in the
world.
Constitutes about 25 percent of
California’s land area, or 25 million
acres
US Board of Reclamation 2010
The world’s largest, most productive, and most controversial water system
California’s interconnected water system manages over 40 million AFA
Serves over 30 million people
Irrigates over 5,680,000 acres of farmland
Substantial Groundwater Supplies
Stores more than 850 million AF, enough to cover California to a depth of 8 feet
525 known groundwater reservoirs
Not all groundwater supplies are usable
• Pollution
• Poor natural water quality
• Economically not feasible -pumping costs too high
California’s Water Conveyance Systems
Conveyance I: The Central Valley Project
One of the largest water systems in the world
Stores over 7,000,000 AF of water, or 17 percent of the state’s developed water.
Controlled by the US Bureau of Reclamation.
Links 20 dams and reservoirs and nearly 500 miles of canals and pumping stations
Irrigates a third of the state's farmland Supplies drinking water for 4 million people.
Dedicates 800,000 AFA of runoff dedicated to environmental usage
USA Today, April, 2007
Surface Water Storage and Conveyance
EXAMPLE
Millerton Lake and Friant Dam
In the Sierra Nevada Watershed
Inflow: Stream flow from the San Joaquin River (upstream)
Outflow 1: To the Friant-Kern Canal and the Madera Canal
Outflow 2: To the San Joaquin River (downstream) (spillway is at the center of the dam)
.
Conveyance II: The State Water Project
The largest state-built water project in the USA
Sends water from the northern Sierras to to the SF Bay area and Southern California.
Consists of the 500-mile California Aqueduct and a network of 33 reservoirs and aqueducts
Delivers about 3 million AFA to > 23 million Californians and 755,000 acres of farmland
Managed by the State Department of Water Resources
State Water Project
Central Valley Project
The Bay DeltaUS Board of Reclamation 2014
California pumps an estimated 16.6 million AF a year from its underground water basins.
The state's 525 groundwater basins are estimated to hold nearly 20 times the amount of water that can be stored behind the hundreds of reservoirs in the state.
Between 250 million AF and 450 million AF of groundwater can be pumped economically,
This is six times more than the amount of water stored in California’s reservoirs
Groundwater Resources
Current Situation
But Wet Years are Inevitable
Month Record Rainfall YearJanuary 8.83 in 1909February 8.19 in 2000March 9.75 in 1938April 7.43 in 1967May 2.73 in 1957June 2.18 in 2011July 0.21 in 1958August 0.26 in 1976September 2.72 in 1959October 3.17 in 2004November 5.00 in 1926December 9.33 in 2010
Fresno, California
Severely Depleted Reservoir Storage
Folsom Lake. San Jose Mercury News, September, 2014
Full Reservoir Capacity Shown by the Red Line
Reservoir Storage is Very Low
% of Capacity | % of Historical AverageSACRAMENTO VALLEY
Shasta Reservoir 24% | 41%Lake Oroville 28% | 47%
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY
Folsom Lake 33% | 62%New Melones 22% | 39%Don Pedro Reservoir 37% | 57%Exchequer Reservoir 10% | 24%San Luis Reservoir 20% | 39%Millerton Lake 34% | 88%Pine Flat Reservoir 11% | 33%
SOURCE:
California DWR October 21 2014
No Water Deliveries for Farmers US Board of Reclamation: Will not deliver 2.4 million acre-feet of water sought by
farmers.
California Department of Water Resources: Will not be able to deliver any of the 4 million acre-feet of water sought by local agencies.
California is the top U.S. agricultural producer in the US, at $44.7 billion
Dairies are the state’s largest agricultural business , with 2012 revenue of $6.9 billion, produced 20 percent of U.S. milk output
Drought impacts to some of the nation’s largest fruit and vegetable crops, including avocados, strawberries and almonds.
Consequences: Milk and cheeses prices are up 20 percent in 2014, to record prices
Bloomberg, February 2014
Groundwater Pumping Rates are High
Low Flows to the Delta Cause Salinity
Groundwater pumping in California is not regulated, so over-drafting is prevalent
Jurisdictional control of water basins, and pumping rights is scattered among many entities which often compete with one another for water
Over-drafting is particularly a problem when deliveries are curtailed
“Recent drought and regulatory cutbacks in water deliveries to protect endangered fish have forced farmers to turn back to large-scale groundwater pumping”
USGS 2014
RESULT: Pumping in the Central Valley has led to subsidence over 1,200 square miles and includes five towns
This can not be un-done
Groundwater Pumping Causes Land Subsidence
Impacts on Agriculture
Central Valley Agriculture
California Agriculture
Produces nearly half of U.S.-grown fruits, nuts, and vegetables
Produces nearly a quarter of the nation’s milk and cream
California exports to almost 150 countries, mostly to Canada, the EU, Mexico and Japan
California’s agricultural production and processing accounts
7.3% of the state’s jobs
5.6% of the state labor income
6.5% of the state value added
Every $1.00 of value added in farming and agricultural-related industries generates an additional $1.27 in the state economy.
For every 100 jobs in agriculture and food industries, there are 94 additional jobs created throughout the state.
1st in the USA
5th in the World
Forty years of increased crop production with water use efficiency
From 1967 to 2007: Applied water in agriculture declined 14.5%
1967 – 31.2 million acre-feet
2007 – 26.7 million acre-feet From 1967 to 2007: Crop production per AF of irrigation water has increased 85.4%
1967 – 1.15 tons/acre-foot of applied water
2007 – 2.13 tons/acre-foot of applied water
California Department of Food and Agriculture and Department of Water Resources, 2008
California Agriculture -Water Efficiency
Play a role in increasing food supply at a time when other countries will be challenged to produce food
Climate change
International crises
Help the USA meet the challenge of increased food demand as the global population grows
Lead the world in applied agricultural technology and productivity
Maintain (don’t shrink) agricultural footprint in California
To meet future demand for food, California must:
Modernize its water infrastructure
Invest in its future as a leading global food producer
Maintain global leadership in production
Develop adaptation strategies to handle scarce water supplies and drought
Directions for California Agriculture
California Agriculture -Drought
Complete Orchard Loss –Lack of Water
Drought impact Loss Quantity Normal Quantity
Percent Loss
Water delivery reduction 6.5 maf 20 maf 32.5%
Shortage after increased groundwater pumping 1.5 maf 20 maf 7.5%
Fallowed irrigated land 410,000 Acres 7,000,000 Ac 6%
Crop revenue loss $740 MM $25 BN 3%
Revenue lost plus additional pumping cost $1.2 BN $25 BN 4.8%
Central Valley economic loss $1.7 BN N.A. N.A.
Direct crop production job losses 6,400 152,000 4.2%
Direct, indirect and induced job losses 14,500 N.A. N.A.
University of California Davis Center for Watershed Sciences, May 2014
Drought Impact on Farmers
Drought Impact on Farmers
What Can be Done
The drought illustrates the need for long-term investment throughout the state's water system
Proposition 1 (2014): To be voted on in the November, 2014 elections
The bond measure proposes to authorize $ 7.5 billion for
$2.7 billion – for building two new reservoirs,
$1.5 billion for ecosystems and watershed projects,
$395 million is available for flood management.
$725 million would be spent on water recycling and treatment projects,
$900 million for cleaning up contaminated groundwater
Other uses
Bonds are generally a way the state borrows money for expensive long-term projects by spreading out projects’ costs over many years to taxpayers. Pays for only a fraction of the total cost. Taxes and fees make up the rest.
Proposed Water Bond
Water Bond -In Favor
Future Supply According to the bond, “California’s water infrastructure continues to age and deteriorate. In recent decades, that infrastructure has proven inadequate to meet California’s growing needs.”
Agriculture“Developing and guarding our water resources is critical for California to maintain…globally competitive agriculture,” according to the findings of the water bond
Water QualityThe bond says that, “Every Californian should have access to clean, safe, and reliable drinking water.”
EnvironmentThe bond provides nearly $1.5 billion focused on protecting rivers and lakes and restoring ecosystems and habitats throughout the entire state of California.
EfficiencyThe bond says that, “Encouraging water conservation and recycling are common sense methods to make more efficient use of existing water supplies.”
In opposition are: Certain delta interests, financial conservatives and some environmental groups
Arguments against the bond measure include:
FinancialThe measure would thrust the state deeper into debt for decades
SolutionFunding would do nothing to immediately address the ongoing drought
AgribusinessFunding would help agribusiness but not others
Money Ill SpentMoney would be better used on schools, roads and health care
Environmental Loss of AllocationFunded projects would take water away from fish that rely on California rivers as habitat
Water Bond -In Opposition
A dominant force in California politics, centered in the Bay Area
2009, activists sued the federal government to
Curtail its CVP water deliveries to agriculture
Claimed CVP diverted far too much northern freshwater away from the
delta,
Claimed this led to lower oxygen levels there, ruining the ecosystem
Oppose construction of dams
Results to date have been shut down the irrigation pumps, favoring flows to rivers instead
Despite the cutoffs, the delta smelt did not rebound much.
Permanent and migrant farmworker jobs lost
Tax revenue to the State lost (the State has > $450 billion in debt at present)
Current evidence is that municipal pollution is a significant factor in threats to ecosystems and protected fish species, not simply water levels
The Environmental Lobby
Water Resource Management Strategies
Reduce Demand
Technology: Ways to reduce urban use (e.g., low flow toilets, showers)
Voluntary conservation: Changed behavior (e.g., urban use)
Regulation and Enforcement: Laws with consequences (e.g., drought restrictions)
Cost and Rates: Improving behavior through water cost structure (e.g., steeply tiered rates)
Subsidies: Government encourages behavior (e.g., xeriscape)
Technology: Improved water use (e.g., drip irrigation)
Tracking use: Metered use and monitored pumping (e.g., new groundwater monitoring laws)
Water Resource Management Strategies
Reduce Groundwater Use
Technology: Clean-up degraded groundwater, creating new supply for irrigation
Voluntary conservation: Changed crop use, land retirement, land redevelopment to urban
Cost and Rates: Improving behavior through water cost structure (e.g., steeply tiered rates)
Subsidies: Government encourages behavior (e.g., low irrigation crops; fallowing)
Technology: Improved water use (e.g., drip irrigation and crop selection)
Tracking use: Metered use and monitored pumping (e.g., new groundwater monitoring laws)
Policies: Improve policies regarding CVP and SWP deliveries
Policies: Allow farmers to maintain surface storage without State or Federal management
Regulation: Restrict, monitor and regulate withdraws (SB 1361)
Recharge: Allow and encourage augmented recharge, infiltration, injection, and banked storage
Soil Amendment: Amend soil to retain irrigation water longer
Water Resource Management Strategies
Increase Storage
Infrastructure: Add surface storage capacity (build dammed storage and offstream conveyance )
Infrastructure: Add groundwater storage capacity (infiltration and pumping to clean aquifers)
Flood Control: Capture Flood water in new surface storage, and inject to groundwater
Infiltration: Build large infiltration galleries, with surface water conveyance for wet years
Pump to Groundwater: Create fill capacity by banking surface water, to take instream flows
Recreation: Create recreational benefits and ecological benefits
Reliability: Improve reliability and water quality with stored water
Banking: Build conveyance that will enable use of banked groundwater
Proposed Sites ReservoirDWR and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation joint project
Capacity: Average annual improved storage would be up to 1.4 million acre-feet (MAF);
Supply: Add 500,000 AFA on average and over 600,000 AFA during dry and critical years
Improved flexibility and long-term viability of the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Project (SWP)
Water Resource Management Strategies
Additional Increase Supply
Technology: Build and operate desalination Plants
Technology: Build and operate innovative water treatment plants for recycling
Creative Recycling: Use tertiary treated water for agricultural irrigation
Cleanup Unusable Water: Remove nitrates and high salinity, creating new supplies
Sub-surface Runoff Capture: Capture water for agricultural use
Water Resource Management Strategies
Improve Ecological Systems
Restoration: Build habit enhancement and restoration projects
Stream Flow: Improve watersheds so runoff goes to streams without floods
Stream Flow: Build fish ladders, cold water pools, invertebrate farms
Flood Control: Build flood control structures to reduce ecosystem destruction
Flood Control: Ditches to relieve overflow
Flood Control: Strengthen levees, straighten levees
Add floodplain: Create floodplain corridor ecosystem, for controlled flood management
Other: Invest in economic development, education and outreach.
Water Resource Management Strategies
Groundwater Sustainability
General: Invest in projects will help to protect groundwater that could be used as drinking water
Strategic: Improve local water supply reliability
Water Quality: Reduce threats to groundwater aquifers, particularly pollution and over-pumping
Recharge: Aggressively recharge beneficial use groundwater basins with quality surface water
Water Quality: Contain and control pollution, preventing its spread
Septic: Replace septic tanks with municipal sewer systems
