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CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE EXERCISE
OCTOBER 21, 2010
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
The California Earthquake Authority staged a statewide earthquake drill
today (October 21st) to test Californians (and others throughout the world who participated) on their
knowledge of earthquakes and earthquake safety.
7.8 million registered participants, as of this morning, took part in the
Great California Shake Out drill designed to challenge individuals, schools, businesses and hospitals to practice state-of-the-art seismic safety measures in anticipation of
the next, inevitable big quake
GOAL OF A SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE
PREPARING FOR THE INEVITABLE BY INTEGRATING ALL ACCUMULATED
KNOWLEDGE INTO A COHERENT RISK REDUCTION MODEL
EXAMPLE: ONE OF THE WORLD’S WORST POTENTIAL
EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS--- SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
(Concept Developed in 2008)
Source: US Geological Survey, Southern California Earthquake Center, and local, regional, and
national partners
RISK MANAGEMENT
• PREVENTION
• MITIGATION
• PREPAREDNESS
• PREDICTION AND WARNING
• EDUCATIONAL SURGES
• EMERGENCY RESPONSE
• RECOVERY
RISK MANAGEMENT
• PREVENTION
• MITIGATION
• PREPAREDNESS
• PREDICTION AND WARNING
• EDUCATIONAL SURGES
• EMERGENCY RESPONSE
• RECOVERY
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS
POSTDISASTER INVESTIGATIONS
RESEARCHRESEARCH
The Location of “The Big One”The Location of “The Big One” on the San Andreas Fault in 1857 on the San Andreas Fault in 1857
HAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDSHAZARDS
ELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIOELEMENTS OF A SCENARIO
EXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSUREEXPOSURE
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY LOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATIONLOCATION
RISKRISKRISKRISK
ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE “BIG ONES” RECUR
Source: US Geological Survey
• Southern California is prone to earthquakes because of its location relative to the boundary between two major tectonic plates. • Much of the stress release happens on the San Andreas fault.
The goal of the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California , and in so doing, enable end users to identify what they can change now—before the earthquake—to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable “big one” recurs.
DAMAGEDAMAGEDAMAGEDAMAGE
PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND RISKIMPACTS AND RISK
PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL PHYSICAL EFFECTS CAUSE SOCIETAL IMPACTS AND RISKIMPACTS AND RISK
COLLAPSECOLLAPSECOLLAPSECOLLAPSE
LOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTIONLOSS OF LOSS OF FUNCTIONFUNCTION ECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSSECONOMIC LOSS
RISKRISKRISKRISK
• The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake causes about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses.
• These numbers are as low as they are because of aggressive retrofitting programs that have increased the seismic resistance of buildings, highways and lifelines, and added economic resiliency.
• The estimates of about 1800 deaths and $213 billion of economic losses are as large as they are because much more retrofitting could still be done.
To learn more about the Shake Out, and to register to
be included in the official participation head count,
visit www.shakeout.org