California Energy Commission New Motor Vehicle Board 9 th Industry Roundtable Sacramento, California March 21, 2012 Tim Olson Senior Transportation Advisor

California Energy Commission

New Motor Vehicle Board9th Industry RoundtableSacramento, California

March 21, 2012

Tim OlsonSenior Transportation AdvisorCalifornia Energy Commission

[email protected] / 916-654-4528


California Crude Oil Imports

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1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

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Foreign Alaska California


California Fuel Demand


California Gasoline Fuel Price Forecast


California Diesel and Biodiesel Fuel Price Forecasts

(2008 cents per gallon)


Other Driving Factors/Trends

• Natural Gas Supply Increase• Renewable Portfolio Standard – Electricity Supply• Federal Alternative Fuels Incentives• California Low Carbon Fuel Standard, AB 32 Climate

Change Law and Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate• Renewable Fuels Standard II


Key Policy Objectives

Objectives Goals and Milestones

GHG Reduction Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050

Petroleum Reduction Reduce petroleum fuel use to 15% below 2003 levels by 2020

Alternative and Renewable Fuel Use

Increase alternative and renewable fuel use to 11% of on-road and off-road fuel demand by 2012, 13% by 2017 and 26% by 2022

In-State Biofuels Production

Produce in California 20% of biofuels used in state by 2010, 40% by 2020, and 75% by 2050

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Investment Plan Analysis

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Electric drive/ hydrogen

Advanced biofuels

Natural gas/ propane/renewablediesel

Fuel economy

Contribution of each fuel/technology category to reducing GHG emissions through 2050

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Other Advanced Biofuel

Cellulosic Ethanol

Biomass-Based Diesel

Corn Starch Ethanol

Ethanol Demand

Sources: Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. EPA , and Energy Commission analysis.

U.S. Ethanol Use and RFS Obligations 1993-2022


California Light Duty Vehicle Counts (2008)

Vehicle Type

Gasoline Diesel Hybrid Flexible Fuel Vehicle Electric Natural Gas Hydrogen

Number & Growth Rate (2001-2008)

25.6 Million (1.7%) 464,000

(5.6%) 333, 000 (75%) 382,000 (22%) 14, 600 (26%) 24, 800 (35%) 190 (N/A )


Medium/Heavy Duty Vehicles2008 Distribution

• 952,000 Trucks and Buses On Road• Diesel 60%• Gasoline 38.5%• Natural Gas 1%• Propane, Electric, Hydrogen, Hybrids and

Others <1%


PEV Market Penetration By 2020 (California, U.S. and Global Market Studies)

Goldman Sachs – 2% (Global)

NRDC – 3.2% (U.S.)

CARB – 5% (CA)

Boston Consulting Moderate – 5.2% (U.S.)

HIS Global Insight – 5.8% (Global)

Deutsche Bank – 6.6% (U.S.)

McKinsey & Co – 8% (Global)

Boston Consulting High – 10% (U.S.)

Roland Berger – 12.9% (U.S.)

International Energy Agency – 14% (Global)


Waste Stream FeedstocksCategory Gross

Potential(MM

BDT/yr)

Technical Potential

(MM BDT/yr)

BioFuel Potential

(gal. ethanol)

BioGas Potential(billion ft3)

BioGas Potential

(million GGE)

Agricultural Residues

10.4 5.1 ~400 million

Dairies & Feedlots

10.2 3.9 14.6 120

Forest Residues 26.8 14.3 ~1 billion

Municipal Solid Waste

35.6 9.6 79 (From gross)

647

Wastewater Treatment Plants

16(From gross)

131

Totals 83 32.6 1.4 billion

110 898

Source: California Biomass Collaborative, 2008.


Progress Toward Achieving 26% Alternative Fuel/Vehicle Goal in 2022

Renewable Fuel Standard II – California Fair Share Ethanol Use by 2020: 12% Market Penetration – Low Growth Case,

Or 17% Market Penetration – High Growth Case

440,000 Electric Vehicles by 2020 (1%) Natural Gas MD/HD Market Penetration by 2020

(3%) Other Alternative Fuels (? %)


Program Objectives

• Transform California’s fuel and vehicle types to help attain the state’s climate change, energy security and air quality goalsProvide immediate GHG, petroleum reduction and

criteria pollutant benefits and the impetus for the long-term transition to a clean, low-carbon fuel

market

Create new projects, products and businesses to promote economic development

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Funding Allocation Summary FYs 2008-09 and 2009-10

Fuel TechnologyCategory

Fuel Production

Fuel Storage and Blending

Fueling Stations

Vehicle Rebates and Prototype Development

Manufacturing Plants

TOTAL

Electric Drive

$12 Million $25 Million $9 Million $46 Million

Hydrogen $40 Million $40 Million

Ethanol $7 Million $5 Million $ 12 Million

Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel

$2 Million $ 4 Million $ 6 Million

Natural Gas $10 Million $ 8 Million $25 Million $43 Million

Propane $ 2 Million $ 2 Million

Total GHG Reduction Categories

$ 19 Million $ 4 Million $ 65 Million $ 52 Million $ 9 Million $ 149 Million

TOTAL with $27 Million for NON GHG Categories $176 Million


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Fuel AreaExisting 2009-2010

Baseline Levels

Additions from ARFVT Program

Funding

Percent Increase

Alternative Fueling Infrastructure

Electric 1,270 charging stations4,375 charging stations(public and residential)

344%

E85 39 fueling stations 85 fueling stations 218%

Natural Gas 443 fueling stations 20 stations 5%

Hydrogen6 public fueling stations

(plus 5 more under construction)

11 fueling stations100%

Alternative Fuel Vehicles

Electric Cars 13,268 379 3%

Electric Trucks 1,409 160 11%

Natural Gas Trucks 13,995 898 6%

ARFVT Program Funding Impact on Alternative Fueling Stations and Alternative Vehicle Deployment in California Source: Extrapolated from 2009 DMV data, plus actual deployment data. Electric truck and natural gas trucks extrapolated from 2009 data.


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Low Case High Case

Petroleum Fuel Displaced Per Year by 2020 375 Million Gallons 1.18 Billion Gallons

GHG Emission Reduction Per Year by 20202.5 Million Metric

Tonnes9.3 Million Metric

Tonnes

Criteria Air Pollution Reduction Per Year by 202010,855 Metric

Tonnes24,371 Metric

Tonnes

Non-ARFVT Program Funding Leveraged $375.5 Million

Short-Term and Long-Term Jobs Created by Projects Funded by ARFVT Program

5,394

Summary of Anticipated Benefits for Fuels and Vehicles Supported by the ARFVT Program


AB 118 Program Funding

Covering First Four Years

• Alternative Fuel Infrastructure - $108 Million

• Vehicle and Component Part Manufacturing - $37 Million

• Medium and Heavy Duty Engine and Vehicle Prototypes

and Demonstrations - $35 Million

• Biofuel Production Incentives - $90 Million

• Propane and Natural Gas Vehicle Deployment - $39

Million• Other Programs - $41 Million

Spring 2012 Solicitations

• Alternative Fuel Infrastructure ($30 Million)

• Biofuel Production($37 Million)

• Manufacturing Incentives $10 Million)

• Natural Gas and Propane Vehicle Buydown Incentive (18 Million

• MD/HD Vehicle Demos (9 Million• Electric Vehicle Regional Planning

• Workforce Training ($ 8 Million)


California’s Transition to Diversified Transportation Fuels and Vehicles By 2020

• Private Investment of $100 Billion - $200 Billion• State of California Incentives ($100 Million - $200 Million Per

Year until 2020) and Full Implementation of LCFS and AB 32• Extension of Existing Federal Tax Credits and Incentives• Advanced Biofuels – 50 Projects in California and/or

Breakthrough in Long Chain Biohydrocarbons• 440,000 Electric Vehicles in California/1.4 Million in 2025 • Medium Duty/Heavy Duty Transition to Non Petroleum Platform

Electric Hybrid (Natural Gas, Electric Hybrid and Hydraulic Electric, Biofuel) and All Electric

• Advances in HCCI and Merging of Other Engine Technologies


The AB 118 Program

• Approximately $100 Million per year• Development, production, manufacture,

and deployment of alternative and renewable fuels, advanced vehicles, and vehicle efficiency

Workforce training

Education and outreach

Environmental, market and technology assessments

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Documents

California Energy Commission New Motor Vehicle Board 9 th Industry Roundtable Sacramento, California March 21, 2012 Tim Olson Senior Transportation Advisor