Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Calming the perfect rhino poaching storm
Sam Ferreira
Forum on China–Africa Cooperation Protea Hotel, Kruger Gate, 1 December 2015
Markus Hofmeyr
• Ecosystem engineers – Grazing lawns Cromsigt & te Beest 2014
– Shrub-land structure Cowling et al. 2010
– Restoring ecological roles Ferreira et al. 2012
• Enabling engineers – One reason why people visit parks Sebele 2010
– Revenue stream for protected areas Ferreira et al. 2012
• Key challenges – Poaching degrade rhino-associated values Knight 2014
– Neighbouring communities benefit little from rhinos Child 2012
– The business of rhinos benefit a few, alienate many Humphreys & Smith 2014
– Uncertainties of risks and benefits Ferreira et al. 2014
Cathy Greaver
Ownership White rhino Black rhino
Private land 4531 446
SANParks 10605 775
Provincial 3644 695
Totals 18780 1916
Sam Ferreira
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Nu
mb
er
of
rhin
os White rhino
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Nu
mb
er
of
rhin
os Black rhino
8619 (8001-9290)
309 (249-371)
A continental perspective Country Number
South Africa 18933
Namibia 524
Kenya 394
Zimbabwe 284
Botswana 185
Swaziland 84
Zambia 10
Uganda 14
Mozambique 1
Country Number
South Africa 2068
Namibia 1750
Kenya 631
Zimbabwe 424
Botswana 9
Tanzania 127
Swaziland 18
Zambia 27
Malawi 26
Mozambique 0 ?
Angola 1 ?
Black Rhino Numbers
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
White Rhino Numbers
5000
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
19000
21000
23000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
5,080
(2012)
20,430
(2012)
Mike Knight
Mike Knight
Conservationists applied best practice management
Pioneers saw value in what they were doing
Large protected areas provided recovery
Innovative approaches provided expansion
Legal incentives provided more areas
Most values of rhinos were recognized
Sam Ferreira
6 ECI
• 3 incursions per day
• 12 groups in the Park any time
• 4300 poachers in the Park last year
• 111 contacts
• 77 sightings
• 1403 incidents
7 ECI
The perfect rhino poaching storm The changing context
• Long histories of culture and trade
• Inelastic demand
• High profit potential
• Inadequate enforcement
• unclear property rights
• human-wildlife conflict disincentives
Global economic processes with local effects
Large-scale transnational organized crime
Conservation legacy of only a few elite benefiting
Konrad 2012
Sam Ferreira
Global processes and local effects
Supply
sourced largely from South Africa
End users market not
within South African control
Syndicated Crime
Greed Poverty
Demand
Environmental Assets
Illicit wildlife trade
Wildlife Trafficking
Alienated people Inequality
Social injustice
?????? Inequality
Social injustice
Sam Ferreira
International and National Collaboration and Cooperation
AN INTEGRATED APPROACH FOR SANPARKS
The 2015 Reality
Sam Ferreira
Compulsory Interventions The philosophy of protecting rhinos
Strategic Framework Fortress conservation through protection
Johan Jooste
Zones
Alliances
Technology
Intelligence
Detect Acquire Neutralise
Command Participate
“Technoing” the Fortress Technology force multipliers
Direction Finding Unit
Direction Finding Antenna
GPS Module
Operation & Maintenance Terminal
Serial Interface
Accumulation Battery
Inverter
Power Supply Unit
A5 Kc CalculatorInterception unit
GSM Omnidirectional receiving antenna
Uplink Downlink
Direction Finding Unit
Direction Finding Antenna
GPS Module
Operation & Maintenance Terminal
Serial Interface
Accumulation Battery
Inverter
Power Supply Unit
A5 Kc CalculatorInterception unit
GSM Omnidirectional receiving antenna
Uplink Downlink
Electronic Fence
Mobile Phone Tracking
Seismic Fence
Control CentreOperational
Control Centre
Seismic Sensor
Aerial Surveillance Communications Tracking
Monitored Fence
Informing the Fortress
Information Human - Techno
Grading Rumours - Fact
Intelligence
Analyses
Actionable Operational-Tactical-Strategic
Response Investigate-Criminal-Civil
Poaching risks Interdiction patrols
Poacher Tactics Optimal pursuit
strategies
Kingpins Social networks
Search and Arrest Hotspot Localities
Spatially Predictable
Temporally Un-predictable Temporally Un-predictable
Spatially Un-predictable
Fear
Fear
Largely bypassing intelligence cycles
Intelligence Cycle
© Margo Vlamings
Mo
zamb
ican Le
bo
mb
o C
on
cessio
ns
Nkomazi Interest Group
Seism
ic Cab
le
The IPZ Makes Use of Various Integrated TECH-INT Enablers
Rapid Response Rangers
Zoning the Fortress IPZ - Intensive Protection Zone
Kruger is surrounded by Strategic Partners
• Urban & Rural Communities • Private & Provincial Reserves • Hotels, Lodges & Resorts • Informal Settlements • Farms & Businesses
Kruger could be cleared from the outside
17
Partnering the Fortress Inclusive approach
JOINT OPERATIONS CENTRE
SANDF SAPS
Fie
ld R
ange
rs
Spe
cial
Ran
gers
Air
Win
g
Pro
tect
ion
Se
rvic
es
MOZ
Limp
op
o N
ation
al P
ark
Mo
zamb
iqu
e Le
bo
mb
o C
on
cessio
ns
SA
Gam
e R
ese
rves U
nite
d
Nko
mazi In
tere
st G
rou
p
LLEAPA - LOWVELD LEBOMBO ENVIRONMENTAL ASSET PROTECTION ALLIANCE
Trai
ls R
ange
rs
Established Partnerships LLEAPA – Lowveld Lebombo Environmental Asset Protection Alliance
19
Nxanatseni North & South
CPZ Composite Protection Zone
Cross-border co-operation and local community involvement Rhino guardian approaches
Marula North JPZ Joint Protection Zone
Depend on human intelligence and partner communication
Marula South IPZ
Intensive Protection Zone Use of various Integrated technology-intelligence enablers
COMPULSORY INTERVENTIONS PROTECTING THE RHINO ASSET – TACTICALLY PRO-ACTIVE
-2-1.5
-1-0.5
00.5
11.5
2
Deh
orn
ing
Ho
rn T
reat
men
t
Mo
bili
ty d
etec
tors
Satt
ellit
e tr
ansm
itte
rs
Op
tic
fib
res
Cel
lula
r n
etw
ork
s
Cam
era
sen
sors
Aco
ust
ic s
enso
rs
Aco
ust
ic v
ecto
rs
Mic
ro-a
eria
l
Mac
ro-a
eria
l
An
imal
un
its
Spec
ializ
ed r
ange
rs
Op
erat
ion
al r
oo
ms
Rad
io c
om
mu
nic
atio
ns
Aer
ial s
up
po
rt
Entr
ance
co
ntr
ol
Faci
al r
eco
gnit
ion
Dat
a an
alyt
ics
Soci
al n
etw
ork
s
Inte
llige
nce
…
Bu
sin
ess
syst
em
Other Parks and Protected Areas
71%
26%
3%
Basic administrative
and infrastructural
needs and funding
Technology benefits
and risks Ferreira & Hofmeyr, Unpublished data
Rhin
os
Dete
ct
Techno
Aerial
Hum
an
Info
• Ranger well-being – People power are key – Ranger support – Operation Relax – Ranger to soldier – Training
• Exercise “Brave Heart” – Career and learning path
• SAWC - Initiated by the SHR
• 4.5 million rand
• Horn stock pile
– Protection risk – Logistic limitations
• Financial sustainability
The realized risks of being militaristic
Johan Jooste
Sam Ferreira
The importance of robust communication? Beyond media
Number of rhinos
Number poached
Poachers caught
Poachers killed
Price of horn
Millions of users
Producers On the ground poachers
Consumers Asian horn users
Sup
ply
ch
ain
Its easy to get horn
There is money in it
Anti-poaching
Biological Management
This is what we do
What is written What is heard What to write What to hear
IPZ heavily guarded
Well managed rhino pops
Poachers caught, killed,
sentenced
Rhino has a low chance to
go extinct
Its not easy to get horn
Not a good investment
Not worth the risk
Stay out of IPZ
Do not use illegal
medicine
Sustainable legal medicine
The hidden risks of being militaristic People alienation
P
r
o
t
e
c
t
M
a
n
a
g
e
C
o
m
m
u
n
i
t
i
e
s
N
e
i
g
h
b
o
u
r
s
C
r
i
m
e
n
e
t
w
o
r
k
s
I
n
t
r
e
n
a
t
i
o
n
a
l
c
o
l
l
a
b
o
r
a
t
i
o
n
The asset The Parks The key Allies Local/ Int
A war of the rich against the poor Humphreys & Smith 2014 Lunstrum et al. 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
20
12
-3
20
12
-4
20
13
-1
20
13
-2
20
13
-3
20
13
-4
20
14
-1
20
14
-2
20
14
-3
20
14
-4
20
15
-1
20
15
-2
20
15
-3
Inci
den
ces
per
day
Poacher activity per day
Rhinos poached per day
RANGER EFFECT
Rudi van Aarde
Without these interventions rhinos would have been declining
significantly by now
Sam Ferreira
Strategically remove rhinos
Stimulate growth Remove asset
Numbers stable Periphery
Little poaching Poaching hotspot
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8000 9000 10000 11000
Ferreira et al. 2015
Equilibrium Models
Exponential Models
12 23
Ferreira, Botha & Emmett 2012
Sam Ferreira
Strategic Rhino Strongholds Intense protection Rhino husbandry One ranger per 10 km2 Maximize births
Partner Stronghold Protected areas
Community areas Share expertise
Private Stronghold Private land
Consumptive use Share expertise/return not given
International Strongholds – Expansion Programmes
Strategic rhino revenue
Fund protected areas Support strongholds Sam Ferreira
Biological management within protected areas was and is the back bone of rhino conservation
Sam Ferreira
Sam Ferreira
LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY INTERVENTIONS CHANGING INCENTIVES TO POACH
Managing the threat
Protect the asset
Reduce demand
Provide supply
Managing the Rhino
Manage ecology
Strategic removals
Rhino strongholds
Cri
min
al
net
wo
rk
ho
rn t
rad
e
Live
rh
ino
an
d h
un
tin
g tr
ade
Exti
nct
ion
an
xiet
y tr
ade
Global North Global South Global Gradient Park neighbors
Syndicates
Sam Ferreira
Betters Bankers
Adapted from Bulte et al. 2003; Moore 2011; Mason et al. 2012
Long-term sustainability interventions The demand problem
Awareness Use threaten a species Culturally insensitive Targets all kind of use Ignores global dynamics
Demand reduction Any use is not good Culturally insensitive Targets all kind of use Ignores global dynamics
www.dailymail.co.uk
China Yemen Japan Vietnam
Stat
us
Po
ach
ing
Thre
at
?
Traditional
Fads
Sustainable demand Targets threatening uses Lengthen intervals • Target future growth economies
Reduce peaks • Target growing economies
Status peaks is a global economic process
Model modified from TRAFFIC 2013
armsandantiques.com
Managing status demand
Immediate - punishment Fear of personal adversity Needs Threat must be real, not a bluff Constant fear messaging
Lasting - reinforcement Needs Culturally sensitive messaging
www.breakingthebrand.org
www.wwf.org.za
Peter Lanius & Lynn Johnson 2015. Pers. Comm.
Co
ntr
ol
sym
pto
ms
Man
age
cau
ses
Ferreira et al. 2014
Present awareness campaigns are likely to fail unless creating sustainable demand targets fad dynamics
www.baraza.wildlifedirect.org
Increasing prices of CSO proposals contradict equilibrium economics
Diversity of commodities collapse equilibrium assumptions
Diversity of consumer behaviour collapse equilibrium assumptions
Central Selling Organization Biggs et al. 2013
Sustainability interventions assume simplistic equilibrium economics that may not track complex socio-ecological-economic systems well
Markus Hofmeyr
Sam Ferreira
Dis
rup
tive
Outcomes of responses to calming the rhino poaching storm
No
n-d
isru
pti
ve
Status Quo Protection Demand Supply Integrate
Agent-based economic model – parameterized against prices supply chain – 2006-2014
Individual-based population model – parameterized against estimates – 1998-2013
Poached rhinos
Haas & Ferreira 2014 Unpublished data. Sam Ferreira
Many Rhino Producers & poachers
Many Horn Consumers
Local International
Few criminal horn distributors
Regional
Present response options
Future efforts should focus here – need multi-lateral collaboration
Reduce demand Provide supply
Collapse and disrupt crime networks
Give people economic choices
GAME CHANGING INTERVENTIONS CHANGING INCENTIVES TO POACH
Adapted from Peters 2013
Sam Ferreira
SYMPTOMATIC RESPONSES: COMMAND AND CONTROL ACTIONABLE INTELLIGENCE
• Operational intelligence – Landscape appraisal – how does a poacher make choices
• Tactical intelligence – Predictive poaching risks – where is poaching likely to be next
• Strategic intelligence – Social and financial network analyses
Following the horn Local and regional
Communication links Investigators
Following the money International
Financial transaction links Darknet
Peters 2013 Haas & Ferreira 2014
Access to services
Water
boreholes (broken, saline, unreliable); municipal (unreliable, far);
communal; none
Ablutions
municipal flush (damaged); pit latrines; septic flush; enviro-loos (not enough,
damaged); nothing
Electricity
unreliable, solar panels, incomplete supply
Infrastructure
Computer centers
57 % none; yes (few, broken, old)
Libraries
60 % none; yes, few resources; 5 % no
Communication systems
cell phone; internet; fax; nothing
Security Sports facilities
The harsh reality…
SANParks
Numerous social surveys around Kruger
High price All values recognized
Low price Some values recognized
Weak ownership
Frontier economy : poaching and unsustainable harvesting
No hope economy: Wild resources replaced by more valuable or privately owned resources
Strong ownership
Sustainable use approach: Wild resources sustainably used accruing benefits
Survive if subsidised economy: Wild resources replaced by more valuable domestic resources
Adapted from Child 2012
Equality
Inequality
Ownership Single Shared Inequality
Crime
ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF THE CAUSES OWNERSHIP, BENEFITS, CRIME, SUSTAINABILITY
Predictions from Kelly 2000
Pseudo-ownership: No accountability with benefit sharing a privilege defined by few elite Reciprocal partnerships: Accountability with benefit sharing a right earned
ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT OF THE CAUSES RECIPROCAL PARTNERSHIPS, ALTERNATIVE ECONOMIES AND BENEFITS
Ecosystem benefits to people
Rhino war
Safety and Security Regional Plan
South Africa Mozambique
Rhino dividends
Rhino dividends
Rhino farming Rhino farming
Entrepreneur loans
Entrepreneur loans
Basic needs provision - water
SANParks
The short to medium term priorities
Calming the perfect rhino poaching storm Focus efforts on those interventions largely in our own control
Mostly out of SANParks’ and South Africa’s control
Traditional interventions in SANParks’ and South Africa’s control
New interventions mostly in SANParks’ and South Africa’s control Initiative Hlanganisa (unite) Reciprocal Partnerships Initiative Hlakaza (disrupt) Integrated crime disruption
Sam Ferreira