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Cameron Village: Then & NowCase StudyMay 17, 2017
• Growth & Density: Comparing 2006 & 2016– What’s happened to the population, parking, traffic, home
sale values, rental rates, retail sales, retail lease rates, retail mix, office rents/square footage, quality of life?
• Why 2006?– Before apartment growth & recession
Overview
Study Area
Population
Area 2006 2016 % GrowthCameron Village Study Area 3,400 3,700
9%Not surprising with mature market area
Raleigh 348,000 438,000 25%
But let’s go back... Raleigh’s population was 65,679 in 1950 and Cameron Village had just opened.
History: A True ULI Story
History: A True ULI Story
History: A True ULI Story
History: A True ULI Story
Case Study: 2006 – 2016
Home Values
Area 2006 2016 % ∆Cameron Village
Transactions: 45 Transactions: 47 4%Median Sales Price: $281,884 Median Sales Price: $363,382 29%Per SF: $178.82 Per SF: $215.83 21%Average SF: 1,508 Average SF: 1,642 9%Days on Market: 46 Days on Market: 37 -20%
Raleigh Transactions: 4,258 Transactions: 4,038 -5%Median Sales Price: $246,210 Median Sales Price: $315,225 28%Per SF: $128.97 Per SF: $154.28 20%Average SF: 1,889 Average SF: 2,006 6%Days on Market: 57 Days on Market: 33 -42%CV area homes 39% higher per SF than Raleigh as whole.
CV area homes 40% higher per SF than Raleigh as whole.
Source: MLS
New Multifamily in Study Area since 2005
Complex Date Opened # of Units
April 2017Effective Rents/SF
April 2017 Vacancy
Oberlin Court 2005 370 $1.18 6%
401 Oberlin Spring2014 244 $1.56 7%
The Berkshire Fall 2014 282 $1.61 8%
616 at the Village
January 2017 207 $1.77 91%
Source: Costar
Multi-Family Class A Average Rent/Unit
Area Average Rent/Unit
Cameron Village Study Area (April 2017 – Effective Rent) $1,547
Wake County (2016 – Asking Rent) $1,202
Percentage higher Rent in Cameron Village than Wake County 29%
Source: Costar
Class A Multifamily Sub-Market Comparisons
Sub Market # of Units Vacancy Rate April 2017
Rent per SF April 2017
Crabtree 817 17.9 $1.24
North Hills 1,525 13% $1.55
Trader Joe’s 1,021 19.3% $1.27
Downtown 2,452 12.1% $1.75
Cameron Village 1,103 22.7%* $1.47• Class A projects completed after 2000• Minimum community size is 50 units• Source: Costar; Analysis: Marcus Jackson, Trademark Properties
* Mostly due to 616 at the Village; without 616, vacancy is 7%.
Office
Area 2006 2016 % ∆Cameron Village
Number of Office Buildings: 14 Number of Office Buildings: 16 7%Rentable SF: 461,253 Rentable SF: 452,756 -6%Annual Average Rent/SF: $16.74 Annual Average Rent/SF: $21.37 28%Vacancy Rate: 19% Vacancy Rate: 7% -63%
Raleigh Rentable SF: 23,476,765 Rentable SF: 52,213,768 122%Annual Average Rent/SF: $21.62 Annual Average Rent/SF: $26.05 20%Vacancy Rate: 13.12% Vacancy Rate: 14.42% 10%CV Rents/SF are 23% lower than Raleigh Rents/SFCV Vacancy is 45% higher than Raleigh
CV Rents/SF are 18% lower than Raleigh Rents/SF (older building stock) although rents increased at faster rate than in Raleigh.CV Vacancy is 52% lower than Raleigh
Source: SPACE
Office: Lost & Added Since 2006
Lost Office Built RSF Rate ReasonOberlin Place, 616 Oberlin 1985 28,000 $17.00 Demolished for 616 at the Village1300 St. Mary’s 1984 39,396 $14.00 Conversion to Condo400 Oberlin Rd 1953 14,869 $13.50 Demolished for Berkshire401 Oberlin Rd 1957 57,394 $16.50 Demolished for 401 Oberlin AptsBallentine Building, 410 Oberlin 1960 10,000 $13.50 Demolished for Berkshire
Added Office* Built RSF Rate1122 Oberlin 1992 24,617 $23.95Junior League Building 2010 27,640 $19.501033 Wade 2003 27,402 $21.001720 Hillsborough 1968 18,222 $14.50815 Oberlin 2016 12,729 $23.00615 Oberlin 1965 18,792 $17.50
Total Net Loss since 2006:(8,497)
* including rehabs
Cameron Village Retail Center
Cameron Village ParkingGross Leasable Area 557,936 SF
Number of Parking Spaces 1999Parking Ratio per 1000 SF Leasable Area 3.6 Spaces
Parking Ratio 1/279 SF
Average Commercial TenureStudy Area Cameron Village Core Area
10.19 Years 14.32 Years
Average Parking RatiosNational Retailers 5 or 1/200 SF
Retail Center 4-4.5 or 1/222-250 SF
ULI Suggests 2.9 – 3.2 or 1/312-344 SF
Cameron Village Retail: 2006 – 2016
Data Pts 2007 2016 TakeawaysStore Mix Grocery/Drug: 117,213 Grocery/Drug: 117,213 SF Restaurants: 116% ↑
Restaurant (7): 30,840 SF Restaurant (19): 66,781 SF
Library: ↑ 36,000 Library: 36,000 SF
Retail: 50 storefronts
Office / Service: 12Store Lease Rates Average rents increased 40% 40% ↑
Sales/SF Grocery: $526/SF Grocery: $636/SF Grocery: 21% ↑
Restaurants: $380/SF Restaurants: $460/SF Restaurants: 21% ↑
Non Food Retail: $265/SF Non Food Retail: $307/SF Non Food Retail: 16% ↑
Total Reporting Avg.: $316/SF Total Reporting Avg.: $413/SF Total Reporting Avg.: 31% ↑
Source: Regency Centers
Cameron Village vs. Average Retail
Data Pts Cameron Village Regency Raleigh Retail Portfolio Avg. Takeaways
Parking Ratio (per 1000 SF of leasable area)
3.6 (excludes adjoining street & residential garage parking)
Typical Regency Asset: 4.5 Pedestrian Overlay allows lower parking ratio
Shopper Demographics
70% female between ages 15 – 65
Sales/SF Average: $413/SF Regency Raleigh Portfolio Average: $383/SF
Non Grocery retail sales @ Cameron represent 65% of total sales vs. 32% in Regency Raleigh Portfolio
• Source: Regency Centers
Cameron Village Property Tax
$-$100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900
$1,000
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Millio
ns
Building Value
Land Value
Total Value
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Millio
ns
Building Value
Land Value
Total Value
Cam
eron
Villa
geRa
leigh
• Pre-recession citywide value increases at a greater rate than Cameron Village 2000 – 2008• Post recession Cameron Village value increases at a greater rate than citywide 2008 – 2016• Overall Cameron Village value increases at a greater rate than citywide: 35.8% vs. 14.5%, 2012 to 2016
Clark & Oberlin Traffic Trends
• AM Peak: 2% decrease since 2008• PM Peak: 37% increase since 2008
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AM PeakEB Clark WB Clark NB Oberlin SB Oberlin
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PM PeakEB Clark WB Clark NB Oberlin SB Oberlin
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AM PeakEB Cameron WB Cameron NB Woodburn SB Woodburn
Cameron & Woodburn Traffic Trends
• AM Peak: 4% increase since 2004 but 50% decrease since 2008• PM Peak: 7% increase since 2004 but 4% decrease between 2008
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PM PeakEB Cameron WB Cameron NB Woodburn SB Woodburn
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AM PeakEB Peace WB Peace NB St Marys SB St Marys
Peace & St. Marys Traffic Trends
• AM Peak: 3% decrease since 2008• PM Peak: 31% increase since 2008
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PM PeakEB Peace WB Peace NB St Marys SB St Marys
Traffic Operations Map
Transit Boardings
0.00
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Boardings and Alightings 3 Year AverageBoardings
Alightings
• 2 parallel processes:• National Register Historic District
– City updating National Register Study Report– Raleigh Historic Development Commission will consider;
make recommendation to Council– Council’s action forwarded to State Historic Preservation
Office for review and recommendation• Historic Overlay District
– Neighbors and residents asked Council to initiate rezoning– Neighbors collecting signatures from at least half of
property owners to indicate support
Oberlin Village
Quality of Life Survey: Targeted Facebook Outreach
14,0443,482
126
TARGETED VIEWSVIEWERSRESPONSES
Quality of Life Survey: Targeted WRAL Embedded Surveys
7,7262,134
93
TARGETED VIEWSVIEWERSRESPONSES
Quality of Life Survey: Sample
Quality of Life Survey: Rent vs. Own
Quality of Life Survey: How long have you lived here?
Quality of Life Survey: Do you like living in Cameron Village?
Renters Owners
Quality of Life Survey: What do you like about living here?
Proximity
Variety of Retail
Convenience
Walkability
Safety
People
Streetscape
62 Comments
Quality of Life Survey: What do you not like?
Traffic
Parking
Expensive
Construction
Noise
Pedestrian Access
Hours
63 Comments
Quality of Life Survey: Has your quality of life changed in the past five years?
Renters Owners
Quality of Life Survey: Restaurants get the foot traffic
How often do you walk to ...
Restaurants & Dining Grocery & Service Retail
Quality of Life Survey: How much of your shopping do you do in Cameron Village?
Residents Non-residents (small sample)
Quality of Life Survey: Do you think you’ll move within the next five years?
Renters Owners
Quality of Life Survey: Do you think you’ll move within the next 5 years?
Never walk 1-2 times per week 3+ times per week
How often do you walk to restaurants & dining?
• Takeaway: the more you walk, the less likely you are to move.
• Between 2006 – 2016:– Overall sales ↑ 31% – Lease rates ↑ 40% – Overall home values per SF ↑ 21% – City population ↑ 25%– Walking correlated directly with happiness in living in
Cameron Village• Home values approximately 40% higher in Cameron
Village area compared to Raleigh• Overall traffic ↑8% between 2008 – 2015
– Proportional with area population growth
Key Takeaways
• History of adapting to market trends• How will Cameron Village adapt in the future? • Repositioning of retail? Diversity of offerings?• Redevelopment of Class B & C
apartments/condos?• Improvements to infrastructure?
– Oberlin Road and traffic management?– Streetscape from Capital Boulevard along Peace Street to
Cameron Village?• Wade Avenue and former Rex Hospital
redevelopment?
What does the future hold?
Back of the Envelope: Potential Development
Analysis
AdditionalOpportunitiesSource: City of Raleigh
64.4 Acres potentially in play
Cameron Village: Then & NowCase StudyMay 17, 2017
