Campylobacter Risk Assessment in PoultryHelle Sommer, Bjarke Christensen, Hanne Rosenquist, Niels Nielsen and Birgit Nrrung

P r e v a l e n sC o n c e n t r a t i o nSLAUGHTERHOUSERETAILCONSUMERRISKPfarmh.Ca.bleedingProbability of InfectionProbability of Exposure

Data examinations distributions Process model building explicit equations Explicit equations/ simulations Cross contamination What-if-simulations Slaughter house modules

Data examinations Data for 3 different purposes - prevalence distribution -> slaughterhouse program - concentration distribution - model building, before and after a process From mean values to a distribution Lognormal/ normal > illustrations Same or different distributions > variance analysis

From mean values to a distribution17 log mean values from different flocks and from 2 different studies

From mean values to a distribution17 distributions -> one common distribution

Diagram1

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0.00000001020000.00002722560.0001426943000000000.0000001282000.0000100034

0.00000000580000.00002173660.0001208996000000000.000000083000.0000083956

0.00000000330000.00001729060.0001021562000000000.0000000533000.0000070296

0.00000000190000.00001370360.0000860849000000000.000000034000.000005872

0.0000000010000.00001082090.0000723454000000000.0000000215000.0000048935

0.00000000060000.00000851320.000060634000000000.0000000135000.0000040683

0.00000000030000.00000667320.0000506809000000000.0000000084000.0000033743

0.00000000020000.00000521170.0000422468000000000.0000000052000.000002792

0.00000000010000.00000405530.0000351209000000000.0000000032000.0000023047

00000.00000314390.0000291178000000000.000000002000.0000018979

00000.00000242850.0000240754000000000.0000000012000.0000015591

00000.00000186890.0000198523000000000.0000000007000.0000012778

00000.0000014330.0000163256000000000.0000000004000.0000010447

00000.00000109480.0000133891000000000.0000000003000.000000852

00000.00000083330.000010951000000000.0000000001000.0000006932

00000.0000006320.0000089326000000000.0000000001000.0000005626

00000.00000047750.0000072665000000000.0000000001000.0000004555

00000.00000035950.0000058951000000000000.0000003679

00000.00000026960.0000047696000000000000.0000002964

00000.00000020150.0000038485000000000000.0000002382

00000.000000150.0000030969000000000000.000000191

00000.00000011130.0000024853000000000000.0000001527

00000.00000008230.0000019891000000000000.0000001218

00000.00000006060.0000015877000000000000.000000097

00000.00000004440.0000012638000000000000.000000077

00000.00000003250.0000010033000000000000.0000000609

00000.00000002370.0000007943000000000000.0000000481

00000.00000001720.0000006272000000000000.0000000379

00000.00000001240.0000004938000000000000.0000000298

00000.00000000890.0000003878000000000000.0000000233

00000.00000000640.0000003037000000000000.0000000182

00000.00000000460.0000002372000000000000.0000000142

00000.00000000330.0000001848000000000000.0000000111

00000.00000000230.0000001435000000000000.0000000086

00000.00000000160.0000001112000000000000.0000000066

00000.00000000120.0000000859000000000000.0000000051

00000.00000000080.0000000662000000000000.0000000039

00000.00000000060.0000000509000000000000.000000003

00000.00000000040.000000039000000000000.0000000023

00000.00000000030.0000000298000000000000.0000000018

00000.00000000020.0000000227000000000000.0000000013

00000.00000000010.0000000173000000000000.000000001

00000.00000000010.0000000131000000000000.0000000008

00000.00000000010.0000000099000000000000.0000000006

000000.0000000075000000000000.0000000004

000000.0000000056000000000000.0000000003

000000.0000000042000000000000.0000000002

000000.0000000031000000000000.0000000002

000000.0000000023000000000000.0000000001

000000.0000000017000000000000.0000000001

000000.0000000013000000000000.0000000001

000000.000000001000000000000.0000000001

000000.0000000007000000000000

000000.0000000005000000000000

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000000.0000000001000000000000

000000.0000000001000000000000

000000000000000000

000000000000000000

000000000000000000

000000000000000000

000000000000000000

000000000000000000

000000000000000000

000000000000000000

000000000000000000

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Sum (Oo+Me)

Concentration of Campylobacter (log10 cfu/g skin)

After blee.

Slaughter program

DateOrder of the daySize of the flockSum of the dayStatus from one pooled sample

Mr. Jensen11. Jan 200015,000

Mr. Jensen21. Jan 200027,000

Mr. Jensen31. Jan 200033,000Camp. negative

Mr. Jensen41. Jan 200049,000Camp. negative

Mr. Jensen51. Jan 2000515,000Camp. negative

Mr. Jensen61. Jan 200064,00043,000

Mr. Jensen72. Jan 2000110,000Camp. negative

Mr. Jensen82. Jan 2000220,000

Mr. Jensen92. Jan 200037,00037,000Camp. negative

Mr. Jensen103. Jan 200015,000Camp. negative

Mr. Jensen113. Jan 200023,000

Mr. Jensen123. Jan 2000330,000

Mr. Jensen133. Jan 200043,00041,000Camp. negative

-3.40.0059525324

Middel ford.NormeretBeregn. Fordel.Normeret-3.20.0104209348

20.00000502210.00000050220.14975477350.0193581662-30.0175283005

2.10.00002377720.00000237770.16409778950.0212122272-2.80.0283270377

2.20.00010148860.00001014890.17872143790.0231025644-2.60.043983596

2.30.0003905310.00003905310.19346501090.0250084037-2.40.0656158148

2.40.0013548010.00013548010.20815175510.026906897-2.20.0940490774

2.50.00423718220.00042371820.22259201710.0287735286-20.12951759570

2.60.01194704340.00119470430.23658704280.0305826064-20.12951759570.3

2.70.0303686450.00303686450.24993333810.0323078255-1.80.171368592

2.80.06959404170.00695940420.26242746560.0339228885-1.60.217852177

2.90.14378062660.01437806270.27387112510.035402162-1.40.2660852499

30.26779986550.02677998660.28407634290.0367213473-1.20.3122539334

3.10.4496783790.04496783790.29287058440.0378581417-10.3520653268

3.20.68073068650.06807306870.3001015940.0387928637-0.80.3813878155

3.30.9290312440.09290312440.30564177520.0395090195-0.60.3969525475

3.41.14305461320.11430546130.30939193420.0399937867-0.40.3969525475

3.51.26790090310.12679009030.31128423380.0402383963-0.20.3813878155

3.61.26790090310.12679009030.31128423380.040238396300.3520653268

3.71.14305461320.11430546130.30939193420.03999378670.20.3122539334

3.80.9290312440.09290312440.30564177520.03950901950.40.2660852499

3.90.68073068650.06807306870.3001015940.03879286370.60.217852177

40.4496783790.04496783790.29287058440.03785814170.80.171368592

4.10.26779986550.02677998660.28407634290.036721347310.1295175957

4.20.14378062660.01437806270.27387112510.0354021621.20.0940490774

4.30.06959404170.00695940420.26242746560.03392288851.40.0656158148

4.40.0303686450.00303686450.24993333810.03230782551.60.043983596

4.50.01194704340.00119470430.23658704280.03058260641.80.02832703770

4.60.00423718220.00042371820.22259201710.028773528620.01752830050.3

4.70.0013548010.00013548010.20815175510.0269068972

4.80.0003905310.00003905310.19346501090.02500840372.20.0104209348

4.90.00010148860.00001014890.17872143790.02310256442.40.0059525324

50.00002377720.00000237770.16409778950.02121222722.60.0032668191

9.99999267810.99999926787.73618166631.00002348322.80.0017225689

30.0008726827

3.20.0004247803

3.40.0001986555

3.60.0000892617

3.80.0000385352

40.0000159837

After blee.

00.000000000100.00000130560.00003873620.0001734722000000000.0000000215000.0000125609

0.00000000010.000000000200.0000019770.00004805690.000203526000000000.000000034000.0000149173

0.00000000010.000000000400.00000296820.00005940170.0002381397000000000.0000000533000.0000176802

0.00000000020.000000000800.00000441840.00007315550.0002778854000000000.000000083000.0000209143

0.00000000040.00000000140.00000000010.00000652090.00008976350.0003233861000000000.0000001282000.0000246942

0.00000000060.00000000270.00000000020.00000954160.00010973810.0003753177000000000.0000001965000.0000291057

0.00000000120.0000000050.00000000050.00001384260.00013366570.0004344088000000000.000000299000.0000342484

0.00000000210.00000000920.00000000130.00001991080.00016221360.0005014412000000000.0000004517000.0000402371

0.00000000370.00000001670.00000000310.00002839470.00019613690.0005772493000000000.0000006772000.0000472048

0.00000000650.000000030.00000000730.00004014770.00023628510.0006627178000000000.0000010079000.000055306

0.00000001140.00000005320.00000001670.0000562810.00028360770.0007587798000000000.0000014889000.0000647199

0.00000001960.00000009330.00000003760.00007822390.00033915980.0008664127000000000.0000021831000.0000756547

0.00000003340.00000016160.00000008250.00010779380.00040410640.0009866333000000000.0000031773000.0000883523

0.00000005650.00000027660.00000017720.00014727350.00047972430.0011204917000000000.0000045901000.0001030935

0.00000009440.0000004680.00000037210.00019949510.00056740430.0012690636000000000.0000065819000.0001202047

0.00000015630.00000078240.00000076410.00026792690.00066864910.001433441700000000.00000000010.0000093683000.0001400641

0.00000025610.00000129270.00000153450.00035676070.00078507060.001614725100000000.00000000020.0000132355000.0001631103

0.00000041560.00000211080.00000301370.00047099290.00091838320.001814007400000000.00000000040.0000185606000.000189852

0.00000066760.00000340610.00000578850.00061649330.00107039480.002032363600000000.00000000090.0000258355000.0002208794

0.00000106180.00000543170.00001087330.00080005340.00124299340.002270835400000000.0000000020.0000356955000.0002568792

0.00000167190.00000856020.00001997470.00102940490.0014381310.002530415400000000.00000000420.0000489535000.0002986539

0.00000260630.00001333210.00003588580.00131319760.00165780280.002812029500000000.00000000880.0000666385000.0003471471

0.00000402260.00002052030.00006305080.0016609270.00190402250.00311651940.00000000010000000.00000001790.0000900409000.0004034777

0.00000614680.00003121310.00010833890.00208280040.00217879360.0034446230.00000000030000000.00000003610.000120761000.0004689831

0.00000929930.00004692010.00018205540.00258953260.00248407610.0037969550.00000000080000000.00000007150.0001607629000.0005452749

0.00001392850.00006970280.00029919060.00319206510.00282174980.00417398720.0000000020000000.00000013930.0002124309000.0006343057

0.00002065460.00010233170.00048085890.00390120450.00319357340.0045760280.00000000510000000.00000026660.0002786263000.0007384441

0.00003032390.00014847010.00075581030.0047271820.00360114080.00500320320.00000001260000000.00000050180.0003627428000.0008605522

0.00004407690.0002128810.00116180520.00567913970.00404583420.00545543650.000000030000000.00000092870.0004687574000.0010040523

0.000063430.00030165030.00174654260.00676455770.00452877630.0059324320.00000006980000000.00000169010.0006012705000.0011729658

0.00009037220.00042241510.00256773620.00798864060.005050780.00643365740.00000015820000000.00000302420.0007655334000.001371901

0.00012747710.00058458020.00369187510.00935369030.00561229930.00695832970.00000034980000000.00000532110.0009674553000.0016059634

0.00017802730.00079949860.00519121420.0108584970.00621338120.00750540210.00000075440000000.00000920580.0012135848000.0018805627

0.0002461490.00108058820.0071386530.01249778560.00685361910.00807355550.00000158630000000.00001566010.0015110604000.0022010975

0.00033695080.00144334990.00960039170.01426175750.00753211120.00866119080.00000325270000000.00002619420.00186752320.000000000100.0025725131

0.0004566590.00190525010.01262661660.01613576830.00824742320.00926642620.000006503600000.000000000100.00004308150.00229098730.000000000600.002998748

0.00061273770.00248542840.01624091140.01810017930.00899755750.00988709810.000012680000.00000000010.000000000600.00006967080.00278966370.000000002900.0034821136

0.00081398090.00320419870.02042956720.02013041510.00977993070.01052076490.0000241070000.00000000060.000000002900.00011078630.00337173540.000000012600.0040226766

0.00107055980.00408231530.02513236130.02219725170.01059135970.01116471620.0000446916000.00000000010.00000000290.000000012600.00017321940.00404508470.000000051700.0046177428

0.00139400610.00513999360.03023658830.02426734750.01142805860.01181598580.000080791800.00000000010.00000000060.00000001260.000000051700.00026630660.00481697320.00000019920.00000000010.005261548

0.00179711330.00639569180.0355760430.02630401450.01228564580.01247136910.000142418300.00000000060.00000000290.00000005170.000000199200.0004025710.00569368360.00000071780.00000000060.0059452661

0.00229373540.00786468620.04093623140.02826821510.01315916460.0131274450.000244806200.00000000290.00000001260.00000019920.000000717800.00059838140.006680130.00000242230.00000000290.0066574208

0.00289846610.00955749750.04606631130.03011975010.01404311460.01378060180.000410333300.00000001260.00000005170.00000071780.000002422300.00087455840.00777945160.00000765430.00000001260.0073847621

0.00362618690.01147825610.05069724740.03181859250.01493149730.01442706740.000670670100.00000005170.00000019920.00000242230.00000765430.00000000010.00125682430.00899260530.00002264820.00000005170.0081136456

0.00449147720.01362311890.05456456330.0333263070.01581787260.01506294310.00106890470.00000000010.00000019920.00000071780.00000765430.00002264820.00000000060.00177596920.01031797730.00006274920.00000019920.0088319589

0.00550789020.01597887160.05743311220.03460748520.0166954290.01568424130.00166121880.00000000040.00000071780.00000242230.00002264820.00006274920.00000000290.00246758070.01175103420.00016279080.00000071780.0095317007

0.00668710910.01852185960.05912067430.03563112360.01755706380.01628692490.00251751780.00000000280.00000242230.00000765430.00006274920.00016279080.00000001260.00337118330.01328403760.00039545620.00000242230.010212412

0.00803801090.02121739150.05951710120.0363718690.01839547420.01686695060.00372028390.00000001680.00000765430.00002264820.00016279080.00039545620.00000005170.00452864690.01490584450.00089952570.00000765430.0108857277

0.00956567960.02401974070.05859620960.03681106170.01920325650.01742031290.0053608970.00000009270.00002264820.00006274920.00039545620.00089952570.00000019920.0059817690.01660181460.00191591230.00002264820.0115811749

0.01127042070.02687283960.05641864350.03693751660.01997301240.01794308990.00753280410.00000046460.00006274920.00016279080.00089952570.00191591230.00000071780.00776901370.01835384330.00382106510.00006274920.012352774

0.0131468430.02971171550.05312526610.03674799670.02069746030.01843148870.01032128380.00000211090.00016279080.00039545620.00191591230.00382106510.00000242230.00992149740.02014053310.00713575670.00016279080.0132848465

0.015183080.03246465680.04892208520.03624735060.02136954820.01888189150.01379013780.00000869810.00039545620.00089952570.00382106510.00713575670.00000765430.01245843920.0219375130.0124779260.00039545620.0144938965

0.01736022470.03505603760.0440589520.03544830650.02198256750.01929089960.01796641080.00003250740.00089952570.00191591230.00713575670.0124779260.00002264820.01538243650.02371790380.02043109110.00089952570.0161222725

0.01965204990.03740965970.0388050930.03437093460.02253026430.01965537640.02282505760.00011018620.00191591230.00382106510.0124779260.02043109110.00006274920.01867504710.02545292510.03132474120.00191591230.0183197642

0.02202507670.03945241660.03342478760.0330418090.0230069450.01997248720.02827614980.0003387350.00382106510.00713575670.02043109110.03132474120.00016279080.02229324870.02711262590.04497075760.00382106510.0212124441

0.02443903510.04111803820.02815619390.03149291890.02340757460.02023973570.03415753350.00094445560.00713575670.0124779260.03132474120.04497075760.00039545620.02616737130.02866671620.06045325590.00713575670.024863719

0.02684774020.04235065010.0231955460.02976039140.02372786560.02045499720.04023560790.00238831430.0124779260.02043109110.04497075760.06045325590.00089952570.03020104110.03008546980.0760949730.0124779260.0292384164

0.0292003780.04310788340.01868790490.02788309560.0239643540.02061654620.04621601210.00547759390.02043109110.03132474120.06045325590.0760949730.00191591230.0342735280.03134065970.08968896620.02043109110.0341828227

0.03144316570.04336329130.01472454870.02590120450.02411446180.02072307980.05176452170.01139401040.03132474120.04497075760.0760949730.08968896620.00382106510.03824465860.03240648690.09898487720.03132474120.0394287971

0.03352131990.04310788340.01134615550.02385478790.02417654390.02077373510.0565366120.02149571120.04497075760.06045325590.08968896620.09898487720.00713575670.0419621610.03326046040.10229289240.04497075760.0446195667

0.0353812370.04235065010.00855028980.0217825030.02414991780.02076810060.06021229610.0367803160.06045325590.0760949730.09898487720.10229289240.0124779260.04527098920.03388418510.09898487720.06045325590.0493454437

0.03697276840.04111803820.00630141820.01972044130.02403487620.02070622220.06253144070.05707783920.0760949730.08968896620.10229289240.09898487720.02043109110.04802387530.03426402030.08968896620.0760949730.0531780988

0.03825145710.03945241660.00454172810.01770117530.02383268210.02058860220.06332417150.0803355960.08968896620.09898487720.09898487720.08968896620.03132474120.05009213030.03439157590.0760949730.08968896620.0557039942

0.03918059710.03740965970.00320132170.01575303360.02354554480.02041619260.06253144070.10255030270.09898487720.10229289240.08968896620.0760949730.04497075760.05137559690.03426402030.06045325590.09898487720.0565704888

0.03973298320.03505603760.00220679950.01389961980.02317658070.02019038260.06021229610.11872831440.10229289240.09898487720.0760949730.06045325590.06045325590.05181068580.03388418510.04497075760.10229289240.0555553405

0.03989223340.03246465680.0014877220.01215957150.02272975620.01991297930.0565366120.12466946260.09898487720.08968896620.06045325590.04497075760.0760949730.05137559690.03326046040.03132474120.09898487720.0526465588

0.03965359660.02971171550.00098085780.01054654580.02220981740.01958618430.05176452170.11872831440.08968896620.0760949730.04497075760.03132474120.08968896620.05009213030.03240648690.02043109110.08968896620.0480922725

0.03902418780.02687283960.00063243470.00906940590.02162220570.01921256420.04621601210.10255030270.0760949730.06045325590.03132474120.02043109110.09898487720.04802387530.03134065970.0124779260.0760949730.0423780191

0.03802263550.02401974070.00039879590.00773257350.02097296320.01879501730.04023560790.0803355960.06045325590.04497075760.02043109110.0124779260.10229289240.04527098920.03008546980.00713575670.06045325590.0361226073

0.03667816620.02121739150.00024592970.00653650960.02026862980.01833673580.03415753350.05707783920.04497075760.03132474120.0124779260.00713575670.09898487720.0419621610.02866671620.00382106510.04497075760.029931382

0.03502918790.01852185960.0001483190.00547828190.01951613360.01784116560.02827614980.0367803160.03132474120.02043109110.00713575670.00382106510.08968896620.03824465860.02711262590.00191591230.03132474120.0242700572

0.0331214680.01597887160.00008747980.00455218050.01872267810.01731196340.02282505760.02149571120.02043109110.0124779260.00382106510.00191591230.0760949730.0342735280.02545292510.00089952570.02043109110.0194054969

0.03100602850.01362311890.00005045970.00375034480.01789562830.01675295120.01796641080.01139401040.0124779260.00713575670.00191591230.00089952570.06045325590.03020104110.02371790380.00039545620.0124779260.0154184504

0.02873688970.01147825610.00002846470.00306337060.0170423990.01616807160.01379013780.00547759390.00713575670.00382106510.00089952570.00039545620.04497075760.02616737130.0219375130.00016279080.00713575670.012259481

0.02636880420.00955749750.00001570340.00248087290.01617034560.01556134120.01032128380.00238831430.00382106510.00191591230.00039545620.00016279080.03132474120.02229324870.02014053310.00006274920.00382106510.0098118662

0.02395510980.00786468620.00000847240.00199198520.01528666220.01493680560.00753280410.00094445560.00191591230.00089952570.00016279080.00006274920.02043109110.01867504710.01835384330.00002264820.00191591230.007938853

0.02154581620.00639569180.00000447040.00158578510.01439828720.01429849510.0053608970.0003387350.00089952570.00039545620.00006274920.00002264820.0124779260.01538243650.01660181460.00000765430.00089952570.0065104655

0.01918601550.00513999360.00000230680.00125163920.01351181820.0136503830.00372028390.00011018620.00039545620.00016279080.00002264820.00000765430.00713575670.01245843920.01490584450.00000242230.00039545620.0054152409

0.01691467610.00408231530.00000116410.00097946890.01263343780.01299634530.00251751780.00003250740.00016279080.00006274920.00000765430.00000242230.00382106510.00992149740.01328403760.00000071780.00016279080.0045637152

0.01476385040.00320419870.00000057450.0007599390.01176885180.01234012460.00166121880.00000869810.00006274920.00002264820.00000242230.00000071780.00191591230.00776901370.01175103420.00000019920.00006274920.0038879354

0.01275829510.00248542840.00000027730.00058457930.01092323910.01168529690.00106890470.00000211090.00002264820.00000765430.00000071780.00000019920.00089952570.0059817690.01031797730.00000005170.00002264820.0033389013

0.01091547660.00190525010.00000013090.00044584590.01010121420.0110352420.00067067010.00000046460.00000765430.00000242230.00000019920.00000005170.00039545620.00452864690.00899260530.00000001260.00000765430.0028828822

0.00924591330.00144334990.00000006040.00033713420.00930680280.01039311820.00041033330.00000009270.00000242230.00000071780.00000005170.00000001260.00016279080.00337118330.00777945160.00000000290.00000242230.0024974035

0.00775378920.00108058820.00000002730.00025275360.00854342960.00976184210.00024480620.00000001680.00000071780.00000019920.00000001260.00000000290.00006274920.00246758070.006680130.00000000060.00000071780.0021676096

0.00643776640.00079949860.0000000120.00018787480.00781391660.00914407090.00014241830.00000000280.00000019920.00000005170.00000000290.00000000060.00002264820.00177596920.00569368360.00000000010.00000019920.0018834303

0.00529192280.00058458020.00000000520.00013845750.00712049340.00854219140.00008079180.00000000040.00000005170.00000001260.00000000060.00000000010.00000765430.00125682430.004816973200.00000005170.0016376477

0.00430674180.00042241510.00000000220.00010116750.00646481660.0079583110.00004469160.00000000010.00000001260.00000000290.000000000100.00000242230.00087455840.004045084700.00000001260.00142472

0.00347009390.00030165030.00000000090.00007328950.00584799670.0073942550.00002410700.00000000290.0000000006000.00000071780.00059838140.003371735400.00000000290.0012401314

0.00276815670.0002128810.00000000040.00005264050.00527063360.00685156580.0000126800.00000000060.0000000001000.00000019920.0004025710.002789663700.00000000060.0010800584

0.00218623670.00014847010.00000000010.00003748640.00473285640.00633150780.000006503600.00000000010000.00000005170.00026630660.002290987300.00000000010.0009412004

0.0017094670.00010233170.00000000010.0000264670.00423436820.00583507390.0000032527000000.00000001260.00017321940.0018675232000.0008206892

0.00132337020.000069702800.00001852730.00377449380.00536299610.0000015863000000.00000000290.00011078630.0015110604000.0007160309

0.00101428270.000046920100.00001285870.00335222840.0049157580.0000007544000000.00000000060.00006967080.0012135848000.0006250623

0.00076965080.000031213100.00000884830.00296628780.00449361040.0000003498000000.00000000010.00004308150.0009674553000.0005459116

0.00057820990.000020520300.00000603660.0026151570.00409658740.00000015820000000.00002619420.0007655334000.0004769645

0.00043006520.000013332100.00000408330.00229713780.00372452550.00000006980000000.00001566010.0006012705000.000416832

0.00031669430.000008560200.00000273840.00201039370.00337708170.000000030000000.00000920580.0004687574000.0003643213

0.0002308890.000005431700.00000182080.00175299220.00305375430.00000001260000000.00000532110.0003627428000.0003184097

0.00016665690.000003406100.00000120040.00152294290.00275390220.00000000510000000.00000302420.0002786263000.0002782214

0.00011909680.000002110800.00000078460.00131823270.00247676520.0000000020000000.00000169010.0002124309000.0002430067

0.00008426250.000001292700.00000050840.00113685570.00222148330.00000000080000000.00000092870.0001607629000.0002121232

0.00005902360.000000782400.00000032670.00097683990.00198711580.00000000030000000.00000050180.000120761000.0001850207

0.0000409330.00000046800.00000020810.00083626940.0017726590.00000000010000000.00000026660.0000900409000.0001612262

0.00002810470.000000276600.00000013140.00071330270.001577063300000000.00000013930.0000666385000.0001403327

0.00001910470.000000161600.00000008230.00060618650.001399248800000000.00000007150.0000489535000.0001219888

0.00001285760.000000093300.00000005110.00051326720.001238119800000000.00000003610.0000356955000.0001058895

0.00000856720.000000053200.00000003150.00043299770.001092577600000000.00000001790.0000258355000.0000917694

0.00000565160.0000000300.00000001920.00036394220.000961532200000000.00000000880.0000185606000.0000793967

0.00000369110.000000016700.00000001160.00030477820.000843912200000000.00000000420.0000132355000.0000685676

0.00000238680.000000009200.0000000070.00025429650.000738673600000000.0000000020.0000093683000.0000591026

0.0000015280.00000000500.00000000410.00021139830.000644807100000000.00000000090.0000065819000.0000508427

0.00000096840.000000002700.00000000240.00017509250.000561343800000000.00000000040.0000045901000.0000436471

0.00000060770.000000001400.00000000140.00014449020.000487360100000000.00000000020.0000031773000.0000373905

0.00000037750.000000000800.00000000080.00011879930.00042198100000000.00000000010.0000021831000.0000319613

0.00000023220.000000000400.00000000050.00009731830.0003643827000000000.0000014889000.0000272602

0.00000014140.000000000200.00000000030.00007942910.0003137939000000000.0000010079000.0000231984

0.00000008530.000000000100.00000000020.00006459060.0002694965000000000.0000006772000.0000196971

0.00000005090.000000000100.00000000010.00005233160.0002308254000000000.0000004517000.0000166859

0.00000003010000.00004224390.0001971679000000000.000000299000.0000141024

0.00000001760000.00003397570.0001679618000000000.0000001965000.0000118913

0.00000001020000.00002722560.0001426943000000000.0000001282000.0000100034

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0.0000000010000.00001082090.0000723454000000000.0000000215000.0000048935

0.00000000060000.00000851320.000060634000000000.0000000135000.0000040683

0.00000000030000.00000667320.0000506809000000000.0000000084000.0000033743

0.00000000020000.00000521170.0000422468000000000.0000000052000.000002792

0.00000000010000.00000405530.0000351209000000000.0000000032000.0000023047

00000.00000314390.0000291178000000000.000000002000.0000018979

00000.00000242850.0000240754000000000.0000000012000.0000015591

00000.00000186890.0000198523000000000.0000000007000.0000012778

00000.0000014330.0000163256000000000.0000000004000.0000010447

00000.00000109480.0000133891000000000.0000000003000.000000852

00000.00000083330.000010951000000000.0000000001000.0000006932

00000.0000006320.0000089326000000000.0000000001000.0000005626

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00000.000000150.0000030969000000000000.000000191

00000.00000011130.0000024853000000000000.0000001527

00000.00000008230.0000019891000000000000.0000001218

00000.00000006060.0000015877000000000000.000000097

00000.00000004440.0000012638000000000000.000000077

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00000.00000002370.0000007943000000000000.0000000481

00000.00000001720.0000006272000000000000.0000000379

00000.00000001240.0000004938000000000000.0000000298

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00000.00000000640.0000003037000000000000.0000000182

00000.00000000460.0000002372000000000000.0000000142

00000.00000000330.0000001848000000000000.0000000111

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00000.00000000160.0000001112000000000000.0000000066

00000.00000000120.0000000859000000000000.0000000051

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00000.00000000010.0000000173000000000000.000000001

00000.00000000010.0000000131000000000000.0000000008

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000000.0000000075000000000000.0000000004

000000.0000000056000000000000.0000000003

000000.0000000042000000000000.0000000002

000000.0000000031000000000000.0000000002

000000.0000000023000000000000.0000000001

000000.0000000017000000000000.0000000001

000000.0000000013000000000000.0000000001

000000.000000001000000000000.0000000001

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000000000000000000

000000000000000000

000000000000000000

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000000000000000000

000000000000000000

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Sum (Oo+Me)

Mean (Oo+Me)

Calculated

Concentration of Campylobacter (log10 cfu/g skin)

Homogenitetstest

Concentration log10 cfu/g skin

Ark3

Concentration log10 cfu/g skin

00.000000000100.00000130560.00003873620.0001734722000000000.0000000215000.0000125609

0.00000000010.000000000200.0000019770.00004805690.000203526000000000.000000034000.0000149173

0.00000000010.000000000400.00000296820.00005940170.0002381397000000000.0000000533000.0000176802

0.00000000020.000000000800.00000441840.00007315550.0002778854000000000.000000083000.0000209143

0.00000000040.00000000140.00000000010.00000652090.00008976350.0003233861000000000.0000001282000.0000246942

0.00000000060.00000000270.00000000020.00000954160.00010973810.0003753177000000000.0000001965000.0000291057

0.00000000120.0000000050.00000000050.00001384260.00013366570.0004344088000000000.000000299000.0000342484

0.00000000210.00000000920.00000000130.00001991080.00016221360.0005014412000000000.0000004517000.0000402371

0.00000000370.00000001670.00000000310.00002839470.00019613690.0005772493000000000.0000006772000.0000472048

0.00000000650.000000030.00000000730.00004014770.00023628510.0006627178000000000.0000010079000.000055306

0.00000001140.00000005320.00000001670.0000562810.00028360770.0007587798000000000.0000014889000.0000647199

0.00000001960.00000009330.00000003760.00007822390.00033915980.0008664127000000000.0000021831000.0000756547

0.00000003340.00000016160.00000008250.00010779380.00040410640.0009866333000000000.0000031773000.0000883523

0.00000005650.00000027660.00000017720.00014727350.00047972430.0011204917000000000.0000045901000.0001030935

0.00000009440.0000004680.00000037210.00019949510.00056740430.0012690636000000000.0000065819000.0001202047

0.00000015630.00000078240.00000076410.00026792690.00066864910.001433441700000000.00000000010.0000093683000.0001400641

0.00000025610.00000129270.00000153450.00035676070.00078507060.001614725100000000.00000000020.0000132355000.0001631103

0.00000041560.00000211080.00000301370.00047099290.00091838320.001814007400000000.00000000040.0000185606000.000189852

0.00000066760.00000340610.00000578850.00061649330.00107039480.002032363600000000.00000000090.0000258355000.0002208794

0.00000106180.00000543170.00001087330.00080005340.00124299340.002270835400000000.0000000020.0000356955000.0002568792

0.00000167190.00000856020.00001997470.00102940490.0014381310.002530415400000000.00000000420.0000489535000.0002986539

0.00000260630.00001333210.00003588580.00131319760.00165780280.002812029500000000.00000000880.0000666385000.0003471471

0.00000402260.00002052030.00006305080.0016609270.00190402250.00311651940.00000000010000000.00000001790.0000900409000.0004034777

0.00000614680.00003121310.00010833890.00208280040.00217879360.0034446230.00000000030000000.00000003610.000120761000.0004689831

0.00000929930.00004692010.00018205540.00258953260.00248407610.0037969550.00000000080000000.00000007150.0001607629000.0005452749

0.00001392850.00006970280.00029919060.00319206510.00282174980.00417398720.0000000020000000.00000013930.0002124309000.0006343057

0.00002065460.00010233170.00048085890.00390120450.00319357340.0045760280.00000000510000000.00000026660.0002786263000.0007384441

0.00003032390.00014847010.00075581030.0047271820.00360114080.00500320320.00000001260000000.00000050180.0003627428000.0008605522

0.00004407690.0002128810.00116180520.00567913970.00404583420.00545543650.000000030000000.00000092870.0004687574000.0010040523

0.000063430.00030165030.00174654260.00676455770.00452877630.0059324320.00000006980000000.00000169010.0006012705000.0011729658

0.00009037220.00042241510.00256773620.00798864060.005050780.00643365740.00000015820000000.00000302420.0007655334000.001371901

0.00012747710.00058458020.00369187510.00935369030.00561229930.00695832970.00000034980000000.00000532110.0009674553000.0016059634

0.00017802730.00079949860.00519121420.0108584970.00621338120.00750540210.00000075440000000.00000920580.0012135848000.0018805627

0.0002461490.00108058820.0071386530.01249778560.00685361910.00807355550.00000158630000000.00001566010.0015110604000.0022010975

0.00033695080.00144334990.00960039170.01426175750.00753211120.00866119080.00000325270000000.00002619420.00186752320.000000000100.0025725131

0.0004566590.00190525010.01262661660.01613576830.00824742320.00926642620.000006503600000.000000000100.00004308150.00229098730.000000000600.002998748

0.00061273770.00248542840.01624091140.01810017930.00899755750.00988709810.000012680000.00000000010.000000000600.00006967080.00278966370.000000002900.0034821136

0.00081398090.00320419870.02042956720.02013041510.00977993070.01052076490.0000241070000.00000000060.000000002900.00011078630.00337173540.000000012600.0040226766

0.00107055980.00408231530.02513236130.02219725170.01059135970.01116471620.0000446916000.00000000010.00000000290.000000012600.00017321940.00404508470.000000051700.0046177428

0.00139400610.00513999360.03023658830.02426734750.01142805860.01181598580.000080791800.00000000010.00000000060.00000001260.000000051700.00026630660.00481697320.00000019920.00000000010.005261548

0.00179711330.00639569180.0355760430.02630401450.01228564580.01247136910.000142418300.00000000060.00000000290.00000005170.000000199200.0004025710.00569368360.00000071780.00000000060.0059452661

0.00229373540.00786468620.04093623140.02826821510.01315916460.0131274450.000244806200.00000000290.00000001260.00000019920.000000717800.00059838140.006680130.00000242230.00000000290.0066574208

0.00289846610.00955749750.04606631130.03011975010.01404311460.01378060180.000410333300.00000001260.00000005170.00000071780.000002422300.00087455840.00777945160.00000765430.00000001260.0073847621

0.00362618690.01147825610.05069724740.03181859250.01493149730.01442706740.000670670100.00000005170.00000019920.00000242230.00000765430.00000000010.00125682430.00899260530.00002264820.00000005170.0081136456

0.00449147720.01362311890.05456456330.0333263070.01581787260.01506294310.00106890470.00000000010.00000019920.00000071780.00000765430.00002264820.00000000060.00177596920.01031797730.00006274920.00000019920.0088319589

0.00550789020.01597887160.05743311220.03460748520.0166954290.01568424130.00166121880.00000000040.00000071780.00000242230.00002264820.00006274920.00000000290.00246758070.01175103420.00016279080.00000071780.0095317007

0.00668710910.01852185960.05912067430.03563112360.01755706380.01628692490.00251751780.00000000280.00000242230.00000765430.00006274920.00016279080.00000001260.00337118330.01328403760.00039545620.00000242230.010212412

0.00803801090.02121739150.05951710120.0363718690.01839547420.01686695060.00372028390.00000001680.00000765430.00002264820.00016279080.00039545620.00000005170.00452864690.01490584450.00089952570.00000765430.0108857277

0.00956567960.02401974070.05859620960.03681106170.01920325650.01742031290.0053608970.00000009270.00002264820.00006274920.00039545620.00089952570.00000019920.0059817690.01660181460.00191591230.00002264820.0115811749

0.01127042070.02687283960.05641864350.03693751660.01997301240.01794308990.00753280410.00000046460.00006274920.00016279080.00089952570.00191591230.00000071780.00776901370.01835384330.00382106510.00006274920.012352774

0.0131468430.02971171550.05312526610.03674799670.02069746030.01843148870.01032128380.00000211090.00016279080.00039545620.00191591230.00382106510.00000242230.00992149740.02014053310.00713575670.00016279080.0132848465

0.015183080.03246465680.04892208520.03624735060.02136954820.01888189150.01379013780.00000869810.00039545620.00089952570.00382106510.00713575670.00000765430.01245843920.0219375130.0124779260.00039545620.0144938965

0.01736022470.03505603760.0440589520.03544830650.02198256750.01929089960.01796641080.00003250740.00089952570.00191591230.00713575670.0124779260.00002264820.01538243650.02371790380.02043109110.00089952570.0161222725

0.01965204990.03740965970.0388050930.03437093460.02253026430.01965537640.02282505760.00011018620.00191591230.00382106510.0124779260.02043109110.00006274920.01867504710.02545292510.03132474120.00191591230.0183197642

0.02202507670.03945241660.03342478760.0330418090.0230069450.01997248720.02827614980.0003387350.00382106510.00713575670.02043109110.03132474120.00016279080.02229324870.02711262590.04497075760.00382106510.0212124441

0.02443903510.04111803820.02815619390.03149291890.02340757460.02023973570.03415753350.00094445560.00713575670.0124779260.03132474120.04497075760.00039545620.02616737130.02866671620.06045325590.00713575670.024863719

0.02684774020.04235065010.0231955460.02976039140.02372786560.02045499720.04023560790.00238831430.0124779260.02043109110.04497075760.06045325590.00089952570.03020104110.03008546980.0760949730.0124779260.0292384164

0.0292003780.04310788340.01868790490.02788309560.0239643540.02061654620.04621601210.00547759390.02043109110.03132474120.06045325590.0760949730.00191591230.0342735280.03134065970.08968896620.02043109110.0341828227

0.03144316570.04336329130.01472454870.02590120450.02411446180.02072307980.05176452170.01139401040.03132474120.04497075760.0760949730.08968896620.00382106510.03824465860.03240648690.09898487720.03132474120.0394287971

0.03352131990.04310788340.01134615550.02385478790.02417654390.02077373510.0565366120.02149571120.04497075760.06045325590.08968896620.09898487720.00713575670.0419621610.03326046040.10229289240.04497075760.0446195667

0.0353812370.04235065010.00855028980.0217825030.02414991780.02076810060.06021229610.0367803160.06045325590.0760949730.09898487720.10229289240.0124779260.04527098920.03388418510.09898487720.06045325590.0493454437

0.03697276840.04111803820.00630141820.01972044130.02403487620.02070622220.06253144070.05707783920.0760949730.08968896620.10229289240.09898487720.02043109110.04802387530.03426402030.08968896620.0760949730.0531780988

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Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Oosterom et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Mead et al.

Sum (Oo+Me)

Concentration of Campylobacter (log10 cfu/g skin)

TEST FOR EQUALITY OF VARIANCES

Bartlett's test

f161

S^20.471

Kritisk interval55.6

chi^2(16)26.3

Equality ?NO

Log-normal or normal distribution ?True data structure = simulated data (sim.=)Assumed distribution (dist.=)Published data = means of 4 samples,6 means from one studysim.= lognormal(6.9,2.3) dist.= normal or lognormal

Diagram5

1

1

1

1

1

1

Mean values calculated back from mean of log values

Ark1

Published data = means of 4 samples, 6 means from one flock

Simulation from lognormal(6.9,2.3)

sim=log

log-fordeling123456

219.843614459347423.64141356365616.67953808032657.3227419522824.21447765811.5833049692

26480.35293795693796.151327985411117.868430835711.1782279661232190.66478304311855.606843281

826.37383664182873.264925392940252.091075373447.866164707541682.27123164413911.1605332616

375.7121798392108.153513011512175.51362976624944.11011576516588.2062369872407.2690900959

middel6975.570642224313550.302794988317290.53816851391915.119312597772821.3391823334543.9049429019

originalvrdi123456log-trans

log-fordelingSamples123456

19.6306021343284.2823764686551.5442406484563.6687687287189.842690349230.361843670311.2932.4542.7422.7512.2781.482

4009.8158227581352988.86829088617308.03069881871185.8863943969305.1707001033157.561353974923.6035.5484.2383.0742.4852.197

1919.217110328734.2740666509351.333130844224.5217591949620.2678790861265.30413907833.2832.8662.5462.3512.7932.424

31974.931808839249441.9497093382204.45532519492048.16201535941095.1313964152556.324298967844.5054.6942.3113.3113.0392.745

middel9480.8988360149100862.3436108364603.84084887651005.55973442552.6031664884252.3879089228Mean3.1713.8902.9592.8722.6492.2122.9595673.499

SD15084.3063682588169659.8735397138470.6544891237801.004611893404.859392081224.2259332086SD1.3551.4730.8710.4160.3350.5360.831

geometrisk1482.5110702067769.0189612614909.9895096301744.5990036004445.3952271711163.0093346306

alm.192223.2025839942439482.360524416793.42815735631178.5633609464600.1445577193349.1254118857

111111

00.00002170710.00000197050.00004063010.00022649530.00038819990.00094429080.00027054900.01902297760.00826884310.0014246818000.00014889220.0048108991

1000.00002179720.00000197120.00004088880.00026286910.00052750170.00141230410.00037788870.10.02254953070.00987066610.00209083280.000000000200.00031602270.0058045088

2000.00002188680.00000197190.00004114340.00030036620.00067436730.00173129380.00046183820.20.02658459190.01172858760.00302826390.000000001100.0006478110.0069982092

3000.00002197580.00000197260.00004139380.00033790430.00081109810.00173953610.00049231350.30.03117137570.01387210970.00432853660.000000004900.00128251370.0084424234

4000.00002206410.00000197330.000041640.00037425490.00091781380.00143257130.00046505290.40.03635092140.01633190530.00610606520.0000000210.00000000020.00245222020.0102068555

5000.00002215190.0000019740.00004188170.00040810550.00097710230.00096698370.00040303320.50.04216075280.01913941830.00850070120.00000008490.00000000150.00452835650.0123882192

6000.0000222390.00000197470.0000421190.00043813560.00097865530.00053498570.00033635160.60.04863341560.02232637210.01167941340.00000032440.00000000940.00807617040.0151192842

7000.00002232550.00000197540.00004235180.00046310110.00092219710.00024259690.00028242460.70.05579492110.02592418580.01583653910.00000117010.00000005550.01391086210.0185779556

8000.00002241130.0000019760.00004257980.00048191920.00081756450.00009016720.00024276970.80.06366313850.02996329930.02119202680.0000039830.00000030040.02314122410.0229939953

9000.00002249650.00000197670.00004280320.00049374630.00068190610.00002746830.00021173290.90.07224618230.03447241290.02798708570.00001279760.00000148640.03717939510.0286498933

10000.0000225810.00000197740.00004302170.00049804040.00053509560.00000685860.000184595810.08154085140.03947764850.03647672430.00003881340.00000672920.05769019680.0358718273

11000.00002266480.00000197810.00004323530.00049460270.00039504130.00000140370.0001598211.10.09153118010.04500164710.04691880590.00011111250.00002787360.08645406770.0450074478

12000.0000227480.00000197880.0000434440.00048359250.00027438340.00000023550.00013773031.20.10218716780.05106261910.05955949960.00030024310.00010563630.1251274380.056390434

13000.00002283040.00000197950.00004364750.00046551510.00017929880.00000003240.00011888391.30.11346375290.05767336690.07461533570.00076579330.00036629090.17490546630.0702983343

14000.00002291210.00000198020.00004384590.00044118340.00011023040.00000000360.00010335931.40.12530009690.06484030770.09225249540.0018436510.00116207030.23612279910.0869202367

15000.00002299310.00000198080.0000440390.00041165720.00006375720.00000000030.0000907381.50.13761923860.07256252230.11256441430.00418961840.00337311910.30786206120.106361829

16000.00002307340.00000198150.00004422690.00037816680.000034694600.00008035721.60.15032817160.0808308630.13554923710.00898667080.00895826650.38766637430.1287199306

17000.0000231530.00000198220.00004440930.00034202850.000017762300.00007155591.70.16331838660.08962715350.16108904530.01819498950.02176753810.47145886020.1542426622

18000.00002323180.00000198290.00004458630.00030455960.000008555400.00006381931.80.17646690450.09892351360.1889330370.03477229790.0483935730.55374928840.1835397691

19000.00002330980.00000198360.00004475770.00026700140.000003876900.00005682161.90.18963781180.10868184580.21868690190.06272542060.09843716520.62815420320.2177205581

20000.00002338710.00000198430.00004492360.00023045490.000001652900.000050400420.20268428810.11885351220.24981045280.10680273640.1831991880.68818161930.2582552995

21000.00002346360.00000198490.00004508380.00019583460.00000066300.0000445052.10.21545109890.12937923420.28162513270.17165236240.31194715320.72815456620.306368258

22000.00002353930.00000198560.00004523820.00016384150.000000250200.00003914252.20.22777750110.14018923790.313332310.26040288860.48599471310.74409398790.3619651064

23000.00002361420.00000198630.00004538690.00013495530.000000088800.00003433862.30.23950049520.15120366420.34404236120.37288113960.69274771050.73437134690.4224577863

24000.00002368840.0000019870.00004552970.00010944270.000000029700.00003011292.40.25045833450.16233325570.37281349720.50399200170.90346574190.69998278820.4821742699

25000.00002376170.00000198770.00004566650.00008738060.000000009300.00002646762.50.26049419030.17348032370.39869822540.64299186551.07805598680.64438097380.5330169276

26000.00002383420.00000198830.00004579740.0000686870.000000002800.00002338492.60.26945985780.18453998940.42079439520.77431187631.17696616490.57290388340.5664960278

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