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Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? September 11, 2019 Kansas City, MO Randy White, CEO [email protected] © 2019 White Hutchinson Leisure & Learning Group

Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

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Page 1: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Can Entertainment Help Save

Shopping Centers & Malls?September 11, 2019

Kansas City, MO

Randy White, CEO [email protected]

© 2019 White Hutchinson Leisure & Learning Group

Page 2: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Feasibility, design, production & consulting services

Page 3: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

• Our 30th year

• Served 500+ clients in 36 different countries

• Projects have won 17 first-place awards

• Expertise and projects featured in Time magazine, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, New York Times. on the Food Network and in many national and industry publications

• Website has over 2,600 pages of information

Page 4: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

1. Stateofbrick-and-mortarretail&e-commence

2. Non-retailtypetenantsthatmotivatetrips

3. Stateofout-of-homeentertainment

4. Trendsimpactingout-of-homeentertainment

5. Thefidelity-conveniencetrade-off

6. There’sabubbleonthehorizon

7. Future-proofentertainmentmodel

8. Q&A

This presentation

Page 5: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

ThingsnopublicationtalksaboutEvidence-based-lotsofdataInflation-adjusted&percapitadataDatasources:• ConsumerExpenditureSurvey,BureauofLaborStatistics• AmericanTimeUseSurvey,BureauofLaborStatistics• U.S.BureauofEconomicAnalysis,U.S.DepartmentofCommerce• U.S.CensusBureau• ICSC• Proprietaryandindustrysurveys• Academicresearchpapers

Glossary:• OOH-out-of-home• E&A-entertainment&arts

Page 6: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Jan-

16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6

Oct-16

Jan-

17

Apr-17

Jul-1

7

Oct-17

Jan-

18

Apr-18

Jul-1

8

Oct-18

Jan-

19

Apr-19

Jul-1

9

Year-over-year monthly brick-and-mortar retail traffic

Source: RetailNext Retail Performan Pulse Year-Over-Year Reports

Average -7.3%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Jan-

16

Apr-16

Jul-1

6

Oct-16

Jan-

17

Apr-17

Jul-1

7

Oct-17

Jan-

18

Apr-18

Jul-1

8

Oct-18

Jan-

19

Apr-19

Jul-1

9

Year-over-year monthly bricks-and-mortar retail sales

Source: RetailNext Retail Performan Pulse Year-Over-Year Reports

Average -6.6%

Page 7: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Page 8: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Page 9: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

2.6%

3.0%

3.4%

3.8%

4.2%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Apparel share of total personal consumption expenditures, 2000-2018

Source: BEA

-31%

$1,350

$1,600

$1,850

$2,100

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Men 16+

Average household spending on footwear and apparel 2000-2017(2-year moving average)

Source: U.S. Department of Revnue, Consumer Expenditure Survey

All clothing and footwear

Women 16+

Children 2-15

Children under 2

Rec

essi

on

Rec

essi

on -27%

-26%

-27%

-24%

-37%

Page 10: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

$0

$250

$500

$750

$1,000

$1,250

$1,500

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Total US per capita spending on apparel, 2000-2018 in 2018$ and percentage ecommerce spending 2015-2018

Source: BEA and Internet Retailer

-17%

+66%

eCom

merce

21% 27% 31% 34%

Page 11: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

2000 2018 changeNumber of Households 109,367 130,001 +19%

Apparel spending per HH* $2,253 $1,607 -29%

% E-commerce/catalog 2% 34%

E-commerce/catalog sales $4,900,000,000 $71,400,000,000 +1,294%

% Bricks-and-mortar 98% 66%

Bricks-and-mortar sales $241,400,000,000 $138,700,000,000 -43%Decrease in brick-and-mortar -$102,700,000,000Decrease in SF stores at $450/sf -228,000,000

Change in Apparel Brick-and-Mortar Sales (inflation-adjusted)

*2018 spending is for 2017/18 year. Source: Consumer Expenditure Survey

SF

Page 12: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Store closings

2017 2018

155 Million

102 Million

Square feet of store space closed in 2017 and 2018

Source: Co-Star Group

2017 2018 2019

8,051

5,8446,955

Major retail store closings and openings (2018 & 2017 are for full year, 2019 is to date)

Source: Coresight Research

2018 2019

3,4013,258

OpeningsClosings

Page 13: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

AstheAmazonJunglebecomesaninfernointhe

physicalworld,amazon.comislikeaslow-moving

lavaflowthatisenvelopingourconsumerculture.SarahHolbrook-TheRobinReport

Page 14: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

So what other than retail will attract consumers to shopping centers & malls?

Page 15: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

51%53%

56%

62%

70%

Fast Food/Coffee, Confectionary

Shop

Full Service Casual/Fine Dining

Limited Service, Fast-Casual

Leisure & EntertainmentRetail

Tenants types that “moderately” or “largely” motivate trips to shopping centers

Source: ICSC “Mixed-use Properties; A Convenient Option for Shoppers,” April 2019

Page 16: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

44%39%38%

46%

65%

55%56%52%

59%

67% 69%

62%62%

73%77% Millennials Gen X Boomers

Fast Food/Coffee, Confectionary

Shop

Full Service Casual/Fine Dining

Limited Service, Fast-Casual

Leisure & Entertainment

Retail

Tenants types that “moderately” or “largely” motivate trips to shopping centers by generation

Source: ICSC “Mixed-use Properties; A Convenient Option for Shoppers,” April 2019

Page 17: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Page 18: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Page 19: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

WD concluded in their survey report, “Most notably, they

[Digital Natives] want concepts that create social opportunities.

A chance to do more than simply buy things, but to do things -

take a yoga class, play a volleyball match, attend a makeup

seminar, scale a climbing wall, make gnocchi with a master

chef. . . You must find a way to engage shoppers in the physical

world.”

Page 20: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Advantages of entertainment tenants

Offersexperiencesthatcan’tbereplicatedontheinternet

Extendsday-partstoslowerretailperiods-seasons,daysofweekandtimesofday

Broaden’scenter’sappeal

Extendstradearea

Increasesvisitsandvisitors

Extendslength-of-stay

Cancontributetoincreasedretailsales8:00am 10:00am 12:00pm 2:00pm 4:00pm 6:00pm 8:00pm 10:00pm 12:00am

Retail OOH Entertainment6pm-12am

Typical hourly visits retail vs. OOH entertainment

Page 21: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

✓ Digital

✓ Competitive landscape

✓ Socio-demographics

✓ Leisure time

✓ Leisure culture

✓ Values

✓ Expectations for OOH experiences

Changes to OOH entertainment (disruption)

Page 22: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

So many reasons to just stay home

Netflix

Kindle

App

s

Bunkering

UberEats

Plated

Smartphones

Pand

ora

GrubHubBl

uRay

PostMatesSu

rrou

nd S

ound

iTun

esTwitch

Cocooning

Blue Apron

Alexa

Virtual Reality

Wii

Tablets

Amazon Prime

Google HomeAugmented Reality

Board Games

Laptops

Bunk

erin

g

eSports

Des

ktop

s

Web Comics

Hello Fresh

Switch

SkypeHDTV

Hulu

YouTube

DVD

s

Hygge

Hig

h Sp

eed

Inte

rnet

Texts

Xbox

Apple TV

Roku

Smart TV

NVI

DIAAmazon

Fire

FaceTimeOnline Gambling

Binge Watching

Wat

chin

g Sp

orts

Page 23: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Page 24: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Staying home is the new going out

Cocooning Bunkering Home-basing Hygge

Page 25: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Source: YPulse

I would rather stay in on the weekends than go out at night (adult millennials)

28%

72%Completely/

Somewhat Agree

Completely/Somewhat Disagree

Generation Homebody

Page 26: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

So what’s happening to

OOH entertainment?

Page 27: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Arts & Entertainment

6 minutes - 1.8%

Watching TV2.95 Hours

Other Leisure & Travel

54 Minutes Participating in Sports,Exercise or Recreation

19 minutes

Socializing & Communicating

33 minutes

Attending or HostingSocial Events

4 minutes

Total Leisure & Sports

5.25 Hours

Leisure time* spent on an average day in 2017/2018by adults age 25+

*Note: All activities include travel to and waiting for said activity where applicableSource: American Time Use Survey

Games & Computers for Leisure21 minutes

AttendingSporting Events

2 minutes

It’s a zero-sum

game

Page 28: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Page 29: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Three ways to measure OOH E&A trends:

Time

Participation

Spending

Page 30: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

0%

24%

-11%

54%

Source: American Time Use Survey

Weekdays Weekends

Out-of-Home Arts & Entertainment

Playing Games & Computer/Screen Use

for Leisure

Percent change 2004-2018 average time per day spent at select leisure activities (age 15+)

Page 31: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Offline Leisure 17.5 Min

Work Activities 16.1 Min

Personal Care(Including Sleeping)

12.6 Min

Travel 5.8 Min

Household Activities 4.0 Min

Education 3.4 Min

Helping Household Members 2.2 Min

Sports 2.4 Min

Eating & Drinking 1.5 MinHelping Non-HH Members 1.4 Min

Religion 0.9 Min

Unknown 0.8 Min

Volunteering 0.7 Min

Ever 1 Hour of

Online Leisure(not including games)

Crowds Out

Every Hour of Online Leisure Crowds Out (Replaces) This Many Minutes of Other Activities

Source: Scott Wallsten analysis of ATUS Raw Data

Page 32: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source: U.S. Department of Labor Consumer Expenditure Survey

Out-of-Home Entertainment & Arts $-7 (-3%)

Audiovisual Equipment & Services +$59 (+6%)

Cellular Phone Equipment & Services +$942 (+534%)

Computer Hardware and Software -$121 (-41%)

+$872(+53%)

2017

Average household annual expenditures in 2017 dollars

2000

2017

Share of all household spending

2.5%

3.8%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor Consumer Expenditure Survey

0.41%

0.38%

Digital Entertainment Equipment & Services

Digital Entertainment Equipment & Services

Out-of-Home Entertainment & Arts

Page 33: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Live, limited- & one-time events

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Percent of all consumer spending on select activities, 2000-2018

+70%

Amusement Parks, Movie Theaters, Campgrounds & Related Recreation

Live Entertainment (excluding sports)

+1%

Page 34: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

78

116 111

87

51

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Millennials Gen X Baby Boomers GreatestGeneration

SilentGeneration

Ind

ex o

f sp

end

ing

100

= A

vera

ge

Spen

din

g

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Consumer Expenditure Survey

Index of average per capita spending on all out-home-entertainment & arts by generational cohort of head of household, 2017

100 = Average Spending

Page 35: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Page 36: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Source: American Time Use Suvey

Weekends & Holidays

Weekdays

Percent of population 15+ who participated in out-of-home entertainment & arts on an average day

-12%

-14%

Page 37: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

2003/04 2017/18

18.420.4

Average annual visits to out-of-home entertainment & art venues by age 25+

-2 Visits

Page 38: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Pa

rtic

ipa

tio

n I

nd

ex

10

0 =

20

04

Ra

te o

f P

art

icip

ati

on

BowlingBilliards Golf

Movies

-33%

-23%

-37%

-48%

*Movie Participation is for North American Population ages 2+ attending at least once during the year.

Golf, bowling and billiards participation is for U.S. participation 2 or more times each year.

Source: NSGA Sports Participation in the United States, www.boxofficemojo.com, U.S. Census Bureau and Census of Canada

Participation index of selected leisure activities in U.S.(population ages 7+*)

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

North America cinema annual per capita attendance

Sources: White Hutchinson Leisure & Learning Group, Box Office Mojo, MPAA Theatrical Market Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau & Statistics Canada.

-28%

Great RecessionR

eces

sion

4.9

3.5

Page 39: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Gentrification

0 M

10 M

20 M

30 M

40 M

50 M

60 M

70 M

80 M

90 M

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Adults age 25-44 by educational attainment, 2000-2018

College Graduate or Professional Degree

Some College or Associate's Degree

High School Graduate, No College

No High School Degree12%

32%

28%

28%

9%

25%

27%

40%

Source. U.S. Census

Page 40: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

The gentrification of OOH entertainment & artsShare of spending on out-of-home entertainment & arts by educational attainment 2000-2017

2000

College Grad+47%

HS Grad19%

<HS6%

Some College/ Associate’s

28%

<HS 6%

Page 41: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

The gentrification of OOH entertainment & arts

2017

College Grad+71%

HS Grad6%

<HS1%

Some College/ Associate’s

21%

Share of spending on out-of-home entertainment & arts by educational attainment 2000-2017

Page 42: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

6%

26% 26%

42%

1%

24% 23%

52%

<High School HS Graduate Some College College Plus

2012/2013 2017/2018

Share of hours attending arts and entertainment by education for adults age 25+, 2012/13 & 2017/18

Source: American Time Use Survey

+10 % pts

The gentrification of OOH entertainment & arts

Page 43: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

The gentrification of OOH entertainment & arts

Page 44: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

The gentrification of OOH entertainment & arts

Page 45: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Other trends impacting

OOH entertainment & arts

Page 46: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

0 M

20 M

40 M

60 M

80 M

100 M

120 M

140 M

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Ho

useh

old

s in

Mill

ions

Households with & without children <18, 2007-2018

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, America's Families and Living Arrangments

32%

68%

27%

73%Households without children <18

Households with children <18

2018

-2.3M-6%

+13.9M+18%

KGOY

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CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Page 48: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Experiential CV

Conspicuous Consumption

of Leisure Time

Social Capital

Page 49: Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers & Malls? · Can Entertainment Help Save Shopping Centers and Malls? 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 3.8% 4.2% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Social Acceleration

Electricity

Telephone

Radio

Television

PC

Mobile Phone

The Web

Social Media*

Smart Phone 3 Years

6 Years

5 Years

13 Years

16 Years

26 Years

31 Years

35 Years

46 Years1873

1876

1897

1926

1975

1983

1991

2002

2007

Accelerating speed of technology adoptionYears until technology is used by 25% of American population

Source: singularity.com, nielsen.com and White Hutchinson Leisure & Learning Group*Friendster launched 2002, Facebook launched 2004

2013

2016 11.5

17.5

Hours a Twitter hashtag stayed in the top 50

Source: Accelerating dynamics of collective attention, Nature Communications

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Menu Adoption Cycle

INCEPTION ADOPTION PROLIFERATION UBIQUITY

12 Years

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Menu Adoption Cycle

INCEPTION ADOPTION PROLIFERATION UBIQUITY

6 Years

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VR the new opiate?

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When it matures, VR will allow us to spend time with anyone in any location doing whatever we like for as long as we like. . . Why live in the real world with real, flawed people when you can live in a perfect world that feels just as real?

Virtual Reality

Adam Adler - Irresistible

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Types of OOH entertainment venuesEatertainment - Dave & Buster’s, Chuck E. Cheese’sFamily Entertainment Center - Main EventParticipatory Social Eatertainment - Punch Bowl Social, Pinstripes, Top Golf, Flight Club, boutique bowling, mini golf & cocktails, axe throwing Escape roomsArcade barsChildren’s entertainment/play cafes Trampoline centers/adventure parksIndoor kartingEntertainment in retail, grocery, museums, churches, etc. AgritainmentHybrids

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Agritainment

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Artainment

Shark Park NYC

Meow Wolf Santa FE Phoenix

Las Vegas

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Wineries and breweries

Wall Street Journal, 9/9/2019

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Multi-species social entertainment

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Dog-friendly shopping & entertainment

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Source: YPulse

Food

Music

Drinks 16%

22%

62%

For adult millennials, a good night out is more about the…

Adult millennials prefer to go out to…

Source: Ypulse

Restaurant Movies Bar House Party Concert Cultural Space Live Event Dance Club

9%

22% 22% 25% 25%

34%

54%

78%

Food & drink is now considered entertainment

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Most of today’s centers are copies of where the puck was in the past, not where it will be in the future

FuturePresentPast

OOH entertainment business model trends

Don’t be a prisoner of the

past

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The 5 OOH Entertainment Target Markets

✴ At-homemomswithchildreninfanttoage5

✴ Youngchildren<7/8accompaniedbytheirparents

✴ Family:generallychildren5-12yearswiththeirparents

✴ Tweensandteenagersattendingasagroup,notaspartof

afamily

✴ Adults,generally25-54,butsomeolder

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The 5 OOH Entertainment Target Markets

✴ At-homemomswithchildreninfanttoage5

✴ Youngchildren<7/8accompaniedbytheirparents

✴ Family:generallychildren5-12yearswiththeirparents

✴ Tweensandteenagersattendingasagroup,notaspartof

afamily

✴ Adults,generally25-54,butsomeolder

#4 is not compatible with the other four, especially indoors

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Family

Legacy OOH entertainment business model

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There’s an OOH entertainment venue bubble on the horizon

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Out-of-home entertainment/leisure is a zero-sum game for both:

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Groce

rant-tainm

ent

Mus

eum-tainm

ent

Retail-tainmentTr

avel

ing

Exhi

bits

FECs

Water Parks

ZoosAquariums

Eatertainment

Aquatic Centers

Theme ParksCi

nem

as

Science Centers

BECs

Museums

Bot

anic

al G

arde

ns

Art

G

alle

ries

Cultural Music, Plays & Dance

Escape Rooms

Trampoline Centers

Axe-Throwing Centers

VR Free Roam Arenas

Brand Museums

Virtual Reality Arcade

Pain

tbal

l Ce

nter

s

Climbing Centers

Laser Tag Centers

Bar Arcades

eSports ArenasLive Music Venues

Sports Events

Rodeos

Circ

uses

Carnivals iFly

Kar

aoke

Bar

Dinner Theater

Festivals

CasinosTopGolf

Brewery & Winery Tours

Pumpkin Patches

Corn Maze

State Fairs

Cons

umer

Sho

ws

Air Shows

Haunts

Mall Shows

Adventure Parks

Live Music & ConcertsZip Lines

Rope

s C

ours

es

Mini Golf

Para

des

Extr

eme

Spor

ts P

arks

Dogtainment

Com

petit

ive

Soci

aliz

ing

Artainment

Agritainment

Exhi

bits

FairsBeer Hall-Game Parlor

Cocktails & Mini-Golf

Wineries

DistilleriesPop up

Museums

Breweries

eSport Lounges

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30-Minute Market Area

9-Bowling Alleys

18-Bowling Entertainment Centers

14-Family Entertainment Centers

7-Adult Entertainment Centers

18-Escape Rooms

11-Children’s Entertainment

4-Water/Theme Parks

5-Museums/ Zoo/Aquariums

Minneapolis/St Paul OOH Entertainment Options

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0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Percent of all consumer spending on select activities, 2000-2018

+70%

Amusement Parks, Movie Theaters, Campgrounds & Related Recreation

Live Entertainment (excluding sports)

+1%

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Live, Limited- & One-

Time Events

In Town LBE (Live)In Town LBE (non-Live)

Lowest 20% 2nd Quintile Middle 20% 4th Quintile Highest 20%

2014 average annual household community-based entertainment spending by quintiles of household incomeEach Square = $5 49%

22%15%

8%6%

Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Consumer Expenditure Survey

5% 6% 9%8%

13%

16%23%

21%52%

46%

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May 2019 Fiesta Filipina KC Fringe FestivalTumbleweed Music Festival Maker Faire Cass County FairFesta Italiana KC BassFest Amelia Earhart FestivalKCPrideFest Lights on the Lake Kansas City's Reggae Music & Jerk FestivalPrairie Village Art Show Parkes! Music, Food Trucks and Fireworks! Kansas City's Big Picnic

June 2019 Booms & Blooms Miami County FairEnchanted Faire Crossroads Beer Fest Platte County FairJesse James Wine & Brew Festival Freedom Fest Festival of ButterfliesKC Summer Brew Fest Kansas City Kansas Street Blues Festival Heartland Chamber Music FestivalLevee Fest Kansas City Folk Festival Johnson County FairParty on the Prairie TinyFest Midwest The Great Car ShowStrawberry Festival Briarfest August 2019Westport Community Festival Grand Carnivale Hip Hops Hooray Beer FestivalHeartland Yoga Festival Sesame Street Festival Atchison County FairOld Shawnee Days Baby Love, Baby Fair Heart of America Hot Dog FestivalDowntown Days Festival-Lees Summit Lights on the Lake UNICO Microbrew FestivalGreek Festival Parkes! Music, Food Trucks and Fireworks! Summer SwingSugar Creek Slavic Festival Booms & Blooms Kansas City Improv festivalVegFest KC Crossroads Beer Fest Ethnic Enrichment FestivalDragon Boat Festival Freedom Fest Croatian FestivalFestival on the Trails Kansas City Kansas Street Blues Festival Future Fields FestivalGladstone Summertime Bluesfest Kansas City Folk Festival Tiblow DaysJuneteenth Celebration TinyFest Midwest Mission Sunflower FestivalOutpace Poverty Family Festival Briarfest Parkville DaysSoul Yoga Fest July 2019 Roots FestivalHeart of America Shakespeare Festival Tails on the Trails Pet Festival Block PartyArts in the Park Artist and Maker Festival Sesame Street Festival Raytown Arts & Music FestivalBoulevardia Water Lantern Festival Universal Film FestivalFrontier Days Parkville 4th of July Carnival India FestAntique Festival Independence Day at Missouri Town 1855 De Soto Days FestivalBrew-B-Que Kansas City KC Riverfest Kansas City Irish FestSummerFest Village Fest Santa CaliGon DaysWine Festival Wyandotte Country Fair Kansas City Renaissance FestivalFuture Stages Festival Salut! A festival of Wine and Food Johnson County Old SettlersFood. Art. Drink Teddy Bear Picnic BrickworldGreat Lenexa BBQ Battle Binham-Waggoner Antique and Craft Fair KC Zoot Suit FestivalKansas City LGBT Film Festival KC Taco Fest KidFestWaterfest

Kansas City Festivals Memorial Day thru Labor Day 2019

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Loss of repeat appeal

Hedonicadaptationsame old, same oldbeen there, done it

accelerated obsolescence

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High Fidelity

Fidelity Belly

The fidelity trade-off

HighConvenience

Consumers make decision based on two key dimensions:✓ Fidelity - Quality of the experience✓ Convenience - Ease of access in time, money & e"ort

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Trade off - the fidelity swap

FidelityQuality of the Experience

ConvenienceEase of Getting & Paying

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ConvenienceTime & Ease of Getting & Paying

FidelityQuality of the Experience

Trade off - the fidelity swap

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ConvenienceTime & Ease of Getting & Paying

FidelityQuality of the Experience

Trade off - the fidelity swap

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Fidelity BellyHigh Fidelity Convenience

Entertainment Venue

A Business is considered High Fidelity

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Entertainment Venue now falls into the Fidelity Belly

Over time technology moves the boundaries

Fidelity BellyHigh Fidelity Convenience

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Non-Stadium Seating

B&W TV

High Fidelity Convenient

The fidelity trade-off

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Non-Stadium Seating

B&W TV

High Fidelity Convenient

The fidelity trade-off

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High Fidelity Convenient

B&W TV

Color TVBlockbuster

Cable TV

70’s & 80’s

Fidelity Belly

Non-Stadium Seating

The fidelity trade-off

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High Fidelity Convenient

B&W TV

Color TVBlockbuster

Cable TV

70’s & 80’s

Fidelity Belly

Non-Stadium Seating

The fidelity trade-off

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Color TVBlockbuster

Cable TV

High Fidelity

Non-Stadium Seating

Fidelity Belly

Stadium Seating

90’s

B&W TV

70’s & 80’s

Convenient

The fidelity trade-off

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Color TVBlockbuster

Cable TV

High Fidelity

Non-Stadium Seating

Fidelity Belly

Stadium Seating

90’s

B&W TV

70’s & 80’s

Convenient

The fidelity trade-off

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Convenient

Non-Stadium Seating

B&W TV

Color TVBlockbuster

Cable TV

70’s & 80’s

Fidelity Belly

Stadium Seating

90’s

HDTVNetflix CDs& Streaming

late 90’s-00’s

High Fidelity

The fidelity trade-off

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Convenient

Non-Stadium Seating

B&W TV

Color TVBlockbuster

Cable TV

70’s & 80’s

Fidelity Belly

Stadium Seating

90’s

HDTVNetflix CDs& Streaming

late 90’s-00’s

High Fidelity

The fidelity trade-off

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B&W TV

Color TVBlockbuster

Cable TV

70’s & 80’s

Stadium Seating

90’s

HDTVNetflix CDs

& Streaming

late 90’s-00’s00’s-10’s

Non-Stadium Seating

High Fidelity Fidelity Belly

IMAX

DigitalFood & Alcohol Plush Seating

Convenient

The fidelity trade-off

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Non-Stadium Seating

B&W TV

Color TVBlockbuster

Cable TV

70’s & 80’s

Stadium Seating

90’s

HDTVNetflix CDs

& Streaming

late 90’s-00’s00’s-10’s late 00’s

At-HomeVirtual &

MixedReality

ConvenientFidelity BellyHigh Fidelity

IMAX

DigitalFood & Alcohol Plush Seating

The fidelity trade-off

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Non-Stadium Seating

B&W TV

Color TVBlockbuster

Cable TV

70’s & 80’s

Stadium Seating

90’s

HDTVNetflix CDs& Streaming

late 90’s-00’s00’s-10’s late 00’s

At-HomeVirtualReality

ConvenientFidelity BellyHigh Fidelity

???

IMAXDigital

Food & Alcohol Plush Seating

The fidelity trade-off

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Decreased # seats by 64% = Attendance up 80%

+ increase per capita F&B

Raise the fidelity of the experience

Anxiety Removal

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Convenience

Fidelity Belly

At-Home & Mobile Digital Entertainment

At-Home Dining

High Fidelity

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68% of Americans skipped a recreational activity during last year - sports, zoo, amusement park, music concert, etc.

Biggest reason for missing out (50%) was “activity is expensive and not worth paying for.” Source: YouGov Plc, July 17-19, 2019, n = 2,504 age 18+

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For today’s higher socioeconomic customer, value means much more than price.

Disposable leisure time typically has greater value than disposable income. It’s about time well spent.

CanEntertainmentHelpSaveShoppingCentersandMalls?

Commodities

Goods

Services

Experiences

Extract

Make

Deliver

StageTIME WELL SPENTTIME WELL SAVED

Commoditization

Commoditization

The Progression of Economic Value

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Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

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Transformational experiences

Self-actualization

Personal transformation & growth

New knowledge

Self-improvement

Improved well-being

Personal fulfillment

Empowers people to make meaningful, lasting changes in their lives

Permanently change people in some way, offering them more than just the memory of an experience that may fade in time

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I gained a new perspective

I learned something new

I had a reflective moment

I solved a challenge

I discovered my passion

None of the above 5%

11%

11.8%

30.3%

43.5%

51.7%

source: Skift Survey, 2017s

Why was the experience transformational?

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Out-of-homeonlyUniqueFocusedontargetmarketDesignedforadultsHigher-socioeconomicIRLsocialDestination-worthyfood&beverageInteractivesocialgamesGroup/gatheringspacesOne-&limited-timeevents&LTOsSometransformationalexperiencesHighfidelity

Future-proof OOH entertainment business model

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It’s NOT about the ENTERTAINMENT!

It’s back to the future by offering great social gathering spaces and changing experiences for the higher socioeconomic

The food & beverage and social gathering spaces are the anchor attractions, often more so than the interactive

entertainment for adults

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The best way to generate demand for any offering . . . is with an experience so engaging that people can’t help but spend their time with you and give you their attention and then spend their money as a result.

Joe Pine

Developers have recognized a need to migrate from being landlords to being ‘placemakers’.

Paco Underhill

People crave connection and authentic, shared human experiences. Technology has expanded virtual access, but has not supplanted this innate human desire.

Piers Fawkes, PSFK

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Shopping center & mall developers/managers as PRODUCERS

of entertainment experiences

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Randy White, CEO

Thank you Q&A

www.whitehutchinson.com/MSCA2019View presentation

[email protected]

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The White Hutchinson Leisure & Learning Group is a 30-year-old, Kansas City-

based, multi-disciplinary firm that specializes in feasibility, concept and brand

development, design, production and consulting for leisure, entertainment,

eatertainment and edutainment venues. Over the past 30 years the company

has worked for over 550 clients in 36 countries and won 17 first-place design

awards. Randy White, CEO, was previously a mall/shopping center developer,

owner and manager with hands-on experience with over 3.0 million square feet

of both suburban retail and urban redevelopment centers. The company is

currently working with a number of shopping centers to assist them with

developing entertainment projects. The company publishes an occasional

Leisure eNewsletter and Tweets and Randy blogs and posts on LinkedIn. Randy

can be reached at 816.931-1040, ext. 100, or at [email protected].

4036 Baltimore AvenueKansas City, MO 64111