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CAN WE AFFORD ZERO CARBON HOMES?
Paddy [email protected]
LOW CARBON COMMUNITIES CONFERENCE – 13 JULY 2011
WHAT PARETO SAYS!
“80% of effects come from 20% of causes”.
Vilfredo Pareto
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
(Eff
ort
In
volv
ed =
CO
ST
)
BENEFIT (Achievement of Goal)
PARETO'S PRINCIPLE (THE 80/20 RULE)
A GOOD BUY
A POOR BUY
Allowable Solutions
On-site low/zero carbon energy
and connected heat
Energy efficiency
Carbon Compliance
10 – 14 kgCO2/m2 depending on dwelling type
2016 CARBON COMPLIANCE
... But it only considers Operational Carbon
SO WHAT ARE WE DISCUSSING?HOMES – from 2003 to 2050
22%
78%
Old homes will still outweigh new ones 4:1 in 2050 – when we’re committed to cut emissions by 80%.
26M
7M
WHAT IS THE WHOLE CARBON EFFECT OF POLICY? Operational & Embodied CO2 targets for homes (ref 2004 ‘stock)
Additional Cost of new homes (ref 2004 ‘stock)
Ave
rage
kgC
O2/
Hom
e
WHERE POLICY TAKES CARBON EMISSIONS FROM HOMESUsing predicted old/new housing numbers to 2050Using 2 options for CO2 targets for new homes but doing nothing about old home stock.
New homes over CfSH 4(+)have tiny effect on CO2 emissions from housing to 2050.
Old homes dominate CO2 emissions to 2050 – unless they’re ‘fixed’.
Nothing worthwhile happens with ‘heroic’ new home targets alone.
HOMES – CARBON TRAJECTORY TO 2050
COST/BENEFIT OF OUR NEW HOMES POLICY (Operational & Embodied Carbon Saved (ref 2003 Stock)
PARETO’S LINE
GOOD BUY
POOR BUY
The 2016-2050 bit of the plan is poor value. It would be far better to direct its extra costs to community solutions and kick-start retrofit
2006-10
2010-16
2016 (+)Pre- 2003
COST VERSUS CO2 SAVING FOR SUCCESSIVE MEASURES
Allowable Solutions
On-site low/zero carbon energy
and connected heat
Energy efficiency
Carbon Compliance
10 – 14 kgCO2/m2 depending on dwelling type
2016 CARBON COMPLIANCE
Allowable Solutions
Community Energy or on-site low/zero
carbon energy
Energy efficiency
Carbon Compliance
Relax Carbon Compliance if new home builders fund retrofit to bring magnitudes more CO2 cuts than lost by relaxation.
2016 CARBON COMPLIANCE
DISCUSSION
• Government looks to commercial developers to provide most new homes• 250,000 new homes/year are needed• Even in boom years, <170,000 homes are delivered.• With the surcharge for ‘zero carbon’ new homes , this delivery gap will not close.
AND….
• The focus on new homes misses ‘the elephant in the room’ – inefficient existing homes. • 75% of existing homes are owner occupied.
• Stimuli to retrofit have had small little take up. Will the Green Deal work?
Pareto lives!
• Diverting money from carbon intensive ‘green bolt-ons’ in new homes to retrofit subsidy would produce a far greater carbon reduction and stimulate the creation of a retrofit industry.
