Can we overcome automobile dependence?: Physical planning in an age of urban cynicism

I~ U T T E R W O R T H E I N E M A N N

Cities, Vol. 12, No. 1, pp. 53--65, 1995 Copyright © 1995 Elsevier Science Ltd

Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved 0264-2751195 $10.00 + 0.00

Can we overcome automobi le dependence?

Physical planning in an age of urban cynicism

Peter Newman, Jeffrey Kenworthy and Peter Vintila Institute for Science and Technology Policy, Murdoch University, Perth, Western Australia

Cities around the world are struggling to reduce their automobile dependence and its impacts. One of the most significant tools in this struggle is physical planning, but at a time when it is most needed there are many commentators who have lost all confidence in planning. Such cynicism is analysed in terms of three approaches summarized as: 'People always buy more space and more mobility', 'Just get the price right' and 'It'll be OK anyway'. The underlying issues are discussed based on the politics of planning, the politics of pricing, the moral dimension and hope for the common good in cities. Together they suggest that there is a very important role for physical planning in our cities.

Government programmes designed to improve cities have had a long history of criticism (Mumford, 1961; Ravetz, 1980). Whilst much of this has in previous decades been about the approach taken by government, there is now a substantial level of cynicism about any role for government in the urban market place. From such a perspective, there is little pur- pose served by physical planning motivated by visionary schemes to make better cities, especially cities that have reduced automobile dependence. 'You'll never get people out of their cars' is assumed by many who have responsibility for our cities.

The constellation of issues surrounding the priorities and role assigned to the automobile and to related issues like urban sprawl are frequently at the centre of this debate over physical planning. Any attempt to reduce automobile dependence through physical planning is treated with considerable cynicism, if not contempt. For example, Gordon and Richardson (1989) observed that 'Newman and Ken- worthy would be well advised to seek out another planet, preferably unpopulated, where they can build their compact cities from scratch with solar powered transit' (p 345).

This article examines three strands of fundamental opposition to physical planning and in particular the cynicism about government involvement in making cities less automobile dependent. Several of the examples used are Australian and relate to the

general debate there and, in particular, the federal government programme Better Cities. This programme is based substantially on providing demonstrations of high-quality higher-density housing integrated with public transport and has come in for considerable criticism from academics and even by other arms of government itself (House of Repre- sentatives Standing Committee on Long Term Strategies, 1992). The same debate is taking place in other countries, including the USA, where the ISTEA package is receiving similar levels of criticism.

A l t e r n a t i v e a p p r o a c h e s

The approach adopted by many physical planners, with whom we are clearly aligned, involves the belief that cities are strongly influenced by physical planning; in particular by how we plan for transport and where we determine housing and employment should be located. Government priorities on transit and the density and location of affordable housing are seen as crucial variables. Physical planning is therefore important if we are to intervene in the problems of our cities, if we are to minimize car use while improving access to urban services, and if we are to make cities that are economically viable while being environmentally sound, socially cohesive and progressive.

Can we overcome automobile dependence? P Newman et al

Those who reject physical planning methods have done so for reasons which may be summarized as follows.

(1) 'People always buy more space and more mobility'. Rising incomes and living standards are the cause of rising car use and declining densities and are impossible to alter without compromis- ing living standards (Troy, 1992a and 1992b; Gomez-Ibaf iez , 1991; Hall , 1991; St re t ton, 1989).

(2) 'Just get the price right'. The price of fuel is the most significant variable in determining the shape of the city and its transport patterns and little else really matters (Gomez-Ibafiez, 1991; Kirwan, 1992).

(3) 'It'll be O K anyway' . The self-regulating nature of the city, in particular the dispersion of jobs and homes, will mean that most problems with cars and low-density will be sorted out automati- cally, almost eliminating the need for physical planning (Brotchie, 1992; Gordon, Kumar and Richardson, 1989).

These arguments will be briefly analysed and some of their policy approaches brought together and examined jointly at the end of the paper. Together these approaches are an attack on the validity of physical planning. They have been used to question the validity of urban reform programmes (such as Better Cities) and they tend to be dismissive of any attempt to change the direction of our cities. They are at the heart of the age of urban cynicism.

(1) 'People always buy more space and more mobility' or rising living standards and historical inevitability Many urban commentators suggest that there is an inevitable link between rising living standards and rising demands for private space and car use. Sprawling car-based cities are therefore seen as inevitable and those who try to stop the process are little more than hapless King Canutes.

Rising living standards obviously do have impacts on transport and land use. Historical analysis shows how cities have moved outwards, following trams, trains and then cars as people developed the economic means to take advantage of these technologies. Also, increasing incomes meant that people could afford to buy bigger homes and more spacious surroundings which they appreciated for cultural reasons. This has been very evident in Australian and US urban history•

However, we do not believe that the link between living standards and a car-based, low-density city is automatic; nor do we believe therefore that the future will necessarily bring more of the same. Cultural and political choices - which may change in the future - are also important determinants of

urban form. In addition to this, the link between wealth and urban form may be more complex than conventional argument has suggested. Frost (1991) has developed a detailed understanding of the link between wealth and urban form based on whether wealth is mostly reinvested in new suburban infrastructure or in industrial development. Australian and US cities have mainly done the former and hence have developed low-density, car-based cities, while cities elsewhere have become more compact as they reinvested more in industrial innovation. Frost seriously questions whether Australia can continue to move in the direction which assumes wealth from rural hinterlands is the basis of urban growth patterns. Other urban researchers (reviewed in New- man and Kenworthy, 1989) have shown how levels of car ownership and use are significantly less in higher density areas of cities at all levels of wealth (why use a car if you can walk or take transit more quickly and conveniently?)

We have sought to provide data which shows that physical planning can overcome the apparently inevitable link between rising income and increasing dispersion and car use in cities. Our data reveal a significant difference between US/Australian and European/Asian cities in their density and in their car use patterns - and yet there is far less difference in their incomes. Indeed, many European cities have per capita incomes higher than those in Australia and yet are four times as dense and two to three times less intensive in their car use (Figure 1-4). The historical data show that European cities are in general reducing in density and rising in car use. However , in absolute terms car use in cities remains much lower than in the USA and Australia (Ken- worthy and Newman, 1991). Why? European planners are adamant that their urban policies aim to minimize these tendencies. All European urban and transport policy documents indicate a strong commitment to, and belief in, physical planning policies intended to contain sprawl and to provide effective alternatives to the car.

In an excellent article on Stockholm's new towns in this issue of Cities, Cervero (1995) shows the way in which Stockholm has reshaped itself over a 50- year period into a multi-centred metropolis based around an effective rail system with minimal levels

~_of car dependence. The author points to the remark- able nature of this achievement by showing how the process of consolidating most new urban development into high-density forms clustered around rail stations occurred in a very wealthy city with lots of space to sprawl. He states:

• . . the very rapid transformation to a transit metro- polls occurred in a well-to-do nation during a period of economic boom. Given that Swedish cities sit in a large, fiat, forested country, many could easily have followed a highway-oriented development pattern.

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Figure 2 A large urban development in Munich called Arabella Park (or the Bogenhausen District Centre). Note: The figure shows the intense mixture of high-density residential with commercial buildings, the traffic free public space and the extensive landscaping. Photo by Jeff Kenworthy.

in the f lee, industrialized world ' , the main focus of which was to prevent au tomobi le dependence . Stockholm has succeeded in radically changing commuting patterns in favour of rail and non-motorized modes, as explained later in the section on the 'Self Regulating City'.

A recent comparison of Zfirich and Los Angeles also points to the conclusion that increasing auto dependence is not an inevitable outcome of wealth (Kenworthy and Newman, 1993). As shown in Table 1, per capita car use grew three times more in Los Angeles than in Zfirich whilst transit declined in LA and grew substantially in Zfirich. Similar patterns are evident in other US and European cities (including large cities such as Paris, Frankfurt and Lon- don).

The pattern is very clear. Zfirich is an extremely

Figure 1 Views showing both sides of an urban village development on the $10 rail line near Zfirich's central city. Note: The figure shows the close integration of housing with rail, the pedestrian/cycle facility running parallel to the line and the trolley bus stop on the adjacent road allowing travel in a cross-city direction. This high density development with quality public spaces has proven popular for families with children. We suggest that urban villages offer an effective and attractive alternative to urban sprawl for many people. Photos by Jeff Kenworthy.

Yet Europe's most prosperous country and its capit- al city took off on a radically different suburbanisa- tion path to that followed in America and much of Europe.

He attributes success to 'perhaps the most compre- hensive and ambitious regional planning efforts yet

Fegure 3 A light rail line on its own grassed right-of-way in Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany). Note: The figure shows the parallel pedestrian/cycle facility. Freiburg has kept the car under control partly through a commitment to public transport, walking and cycling. Photo by Jeff Kenworthy.

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Figure 4 The Seepark urban village development in Freiburg im Breisgau (Germany). Note: The figure shows the quality landscaped areas and facilities for walking and cycling. Parking is mostly underground and the development is situated at a light rail station. Freiburg has kept the car under control partly through a commitment to compact development linked to public transport. Photos by Jeff Kenwor- thy.

wealthy city which highly values physical planning and is constantly upgrading and encouraging use of its excellent transit system. Car use grows, but at a manageable level. Los Angeles is also a compara- tively wealthy city but is considerably less so than Zfirich. It is unable to exert any significant control over land use patterns and its transit system remains insignificant. Car use grows at an alarming rate (in each 10-year period between 1960 and 1990 the increase in car vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) per capita has doubled; 468 km from 1960 to 1970; 1153 km from 1970 to 1980 and 2 584 km from 1980 to 1990). These two examples run counter to the notion that wealth is the primary driving variable in transport patterns. They point instead to the central role of physical planning or lack thereof.

We also note that there are examples of cities in which densities have gone up (as in many of the historic European urban cores and inner areas and in new urban villages) and in which public transport

and walking/cycling have grown at the expense of car travel (Newman, Kenworthy and Robinson, 1992; Newman, Kenworthy and Lyons, 1991). These have often occurred because of the cultural attraction of more intense urban environments or because of different planning priorities (eg transit preferred to highways).

Vancouver is a modern city with rising incomes and extensive new high-density developments, mostly associated with the new Skytrain rail line. The inner area of Vancouver grew by 40 000 people between 1986 and 1991 through extensive residential densification projects, including both large and small-scale infill style projects. Vancouver also prides itself on having no freeways and having a strong belief and commitment to physical planning - for example, major residential development projects are under the direct sponsorship and guidance of the City of Vancouver.

Toronto has been something of a model in our writing due to the changes it has undergone in moving towards a more compact, transit-oriented city form (Kenworthy, 1991). Brindle (1992) de- molishes a series of straw-man arguments on Toron- to, suggesting that it is a 'paradigm lost' in physical planning terms. Our response (Kenworthy and New- man, 1994) suggests that Toronto is a 'paradigm regained' because it demonstrates how a city can stop building freeways, prioritize transit and associated compact, mixed use housing environments and still thrive. A recent report, designed to map out a reurbanization scenario for Toronto, shows the extremely detailed care and attention Toronto pays to honouring the peculiar urban histories of different parts of its region, while significantly increasing densities. The document is a strong statement of the value Toronto places on physical planning guidelines which reach into the minutiae of urban design and streetscapes. One of the document's major thrusts is the need to minimize use of the car through careful physical planning (Berridge et al, 1991).

Turning again to Europe, Freiburg provides another example of how rising living standards have not led to car dominance. Pucher and Clorer (1992) outline how this German city, while growing in auto ownership and wealth, has remained static in car use over 15 years (a mere 1.2% increase). However, total trip making by all modes has increased by 30% ;

Table 1 A comparison of income, car use and transit use in Zfirich and Los Angeles

Growth in annual car use Growth in

GNP per capita, transit use per capita 1980-1990 per capita,

City 1991 ($US) (kin) 1980-1990

Los Angeles 21 560 2 584 - 4 trips Z/.irich 33 510 879 + 137 trips

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Table 2 Relative share of non-pedestrian trips by mode in Freiburg (%)

1976 1991

Cars 60 47 Public transport 22 26 Bicycles 18 27

Source: Pucher and Clorer, 1992.

public transport grew 53% and bicycle use by 100%. The relative shares changed as shown in Table 2.

The rather dismal view of the future reflected in the idea that rising living standards inevitably mean a car-dominated city is also inadequate on equity and sustainability criteria.

E q u i t y

Evidence is mounting that there are significant equity problems associated with the car-based, low- density city (see Newman, Kenworthy and Vintila, 1992). Those who favour the apparently inevitable spatial outcomes resulting from rising incomes do not like to dwell on these matters. Instead they emphasize the benefits that ordinary people find in this lifestyle and the extra costs associated with higher density housing and public transport systems. Our review of the evidence, however, suggests that:

(1) There are substantial infrastructure costs associated with low-density urban development which outweigh the higher costs associated with denser housing; in other words, in total cost terms, higher-density housing can be developed more cheaply.

(2) There are substantial extra costs associated with the car-based transport system over bus and rail systems; our numbers suggest that the car system costs 40C/passenger km of travel, bus systems 23C/passenger km and rail 27C/passenger km (Australian cents). These figures do not include the benefits that result from rail's ability to focus and concentrate development nor do they include many imponderable external costs.

Where these savings accrue to the public purse, they could be used to provide strategically targeted housing assistance or otherwise improve the access of low-income earners to urban services. In any event, higher costs of low-density settlement forms cannot be brushed aside if equity considerations are to mean something in our cities.

S u s t a i n a b i l i t y

The historical association between rising incomes and falling urban densities is also brought into question by another set of issues relating to external costs. These include oil depletion, greenhouse impacts, pollution, noise, road accidents and a number of social questions related to human livability in a


car-based city. We would argue that the 'inevitable' linking of incomes to greater car use and more space is reaching a combined set o f limits that mean a new kind of city form policy needs to develop if sustainability and quality of urban life are to mean anything.

Agenda 21 is uncompromising in its statement that cities must reduce travel distances and that all signa- tory nations should develop sustainability plans for municipalities by 1996. The Oxford University Transport Studies Unit (Goodwin et al, 1992) is developing a reform case along these lines. Planners in the US (Cervero, 1992; Calthorpe Associates, 1990; Calthorpe, 1993) have shown how new technologies and urban design principles will permit more compact and transit-oriented development offering high standards of urban living.

We certainly agree that rising incomes and living standards are an important force in the city, but not one inevitably moving us towards more car-based, low-density cities. Rising living standards can also be reflected in high-quality compact environments with a large investment in public amenity and quality transit, as in Stockholm. Of course, if rising living standards are seen by policy makers to be inevitably linked to low density, then it is not hard to see why they are likely to become so. The importance of the reform process (such as the Better Cities programme in Australia) is that it is beginning to demonstrate the more positive attributes of higher-density, transit-oriented urban form and is seeking to break the cycle of cynicism that prevents us from even trying to create such improved urban environments.

(2) ' J u s t ge t t h e p r i c e r i g h t ' o r f u e l p r i c e s as t h e k e y to t r a n s p o r t a n d u r b a n f o r m

There is a commonly held plea in all areas of government to 'get the price right', ie, to incorporate all costs, including external and social costs, and allow all else to follow the market. Kirwan (1992) has provided a detailed analysis of our research on

t h e links between transport and urban form. His work, which is a welcome contribution to ongoing debate in this area, is in substantial agreement with many of our key findings. Kirwan's major apparent challenge to our argument concerns the question of fuel prices. In this regard, he is extending the argument of essentially economic commentators like Gomez-Ibafiez (1991) who stress the importance of prices in urban affairs. Others have stressed the importance of parking prices in a similar way (Shoup, 1991). There are, however, some significant differences between Kirwan and those who approach this question from a single minded economic point of view. Despite his emphasis on prices, Kirwan also acknowledges the importance of physical planning. He confirms that density is an important variable in determining transport patterns, particularly in cities like those in the USA and Australia.



He also finds that transport infrastructure, in particular the level of commitment to public transport (as measured by its average speed) is highly significant; the importance of fixed rail is stressed in this regard.1 He concludes that:

there is a positive relationship between gross residential densities and the use of public transport. There is also a very important relationship between the speed of public transport and the probability of its use. And the effects are compound (Kirwan, 1992, p 12).

His argument registers another important qualifica- tion as well. He points out that fuel prices are likely to be most effective in reducing transport energy consumption in the North American and Australian contexts where the 'density of activity is left to be determined by transport conditions' (Kirwan, 1992, p 6). In other words, they are likely to be more effective where the policy decision not to employ appropriate land use controls has been made. In Europe, the situation is quite different.

If the European approach is to be followed, then it is the containment of urbanisation and the consequent higher densities that have created the conditions for a high level of public transport use and relatively low petrol consumption (Kirwan, 1992, p 17).

Kirwan appears therefore not to be questioning the efficacy of direct land use regulation and control. In this, he is much closer to our own position than he is to more radical critics who deny the positive connection between density and efficiency (see below). However, to acknowledge the efficacy of a policy position is one thing; to like it or embrace it is quite another. And, even though he can see it working, Kirwan is not attracted to the idea of more robust land use planning. He raises questions about the costs of such measures but says nothing about their potential benefits. This position permits him to ask whether the European approach to urban planning is really worthwhile or necessary. He is, of course, reluctant and calls for further research. His loyalties appear therefore to lie with those who prefer market instruments to planning instruments - but his commitment is a more openly political one: robust land use planning may be acceptable to Europeans he implies, but Anglo Saxons are, perhaps, better off sticking with more modest price and transport net-

~Kirwan suggests that the data favour traditional heavy rail and not trams. However light rail (which he dismisses as a distraction) is distinguished by its extra speed over trams combined with flexibility. Such a cavalier dismissal is not consistent with the rest of the paper nor with the increasing trend to adopt this cost- effective technology around the world. Light rail is also an important part of many urban reform projects because it provides a strong transit presence in streets and because it is environmentally friendly, giving the opportunity significantly to improve the quality of urban design and landscaping in denser urban settings.

work management measures. Thus Kirwan ends up siding with the cynics on the role of physical planning, although his analysis appeared to be going in a different more positive direction.

Cervero (1992a, p 34) has analysed this 'pricing v physical planning' issue in the US context. He concludes that:

Set high enough, price signals would certainly create a built environment more conducive to transit usage • . . However concerns over equity (ie only the rich can afford to drive), implementability (ie can we really monitor and levy charges for a large share of congestion and emissions) and political inertia, raise doubts about the likelihood of pricing solut ions . . . In the absence of proper pricing, physical planning is the next best tool available for dealing with the kinds of mobility problems found in large cities.

In a similar vein, Ewing (1993) has analysed the potential of travel demand management (TDM) in the USA to reduce automobile travel. His primary focus is on employer-based programmes aimed at reducing the number of workers who commute alone in cars. In this regard there is a variety of instruments that can be used by employers, including pricing or economic incentives/disincentives (eg supply of transit passes, parking charges for single occupant commuters). However, Ewing complains that TD M in the USA never includes land use strategies. He states:

New compact development generates about half as much vehicular travel as does urban sprawl. Even within a 20 year time frame, the potential of land use changes to reduce VMT far exceeds the potential of employer-based TDM programs (Ewing, 1993, p 364).

Contrary to the position taken by Kirwan, we would argue that physical planning is entirely appropriate in the Australian situation and that there is a long tradition of supporting this. We do not claim that

l a n d use planning measures should be used by themselves or as an alternative to price and transport network management. Whilst our larger argument certainly emphasizes the importance of land use planning, we also recognize that the real policy challenge involves the development of a suite of complementary strategies, simultaneously incorpor- ating economic as well as physical planning strategies. Indeed, in our National Housing Strategy study (Newman, Kenworthy and Vintila, 1992) we argue that policy measures need to be developed on three broad fronts which include:

• strategic pricing; • strategic network development; and • strategic land use management.

These three action fronts, moreover , have been identified as the key elements of integrated transport

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demand management strategies which are moving to the centre of most government transport planning approaches today. However, as discussed below, pricing remains politically stagnant (indeed many governments are promising to lower fuel prices); thus the importance of physical planning reforms that demonstrate reduced automobile dependence should not be played down.

(3) 'It'll be OK anyway' or the self regulating city According to this argument, transport costs and access problems generated by low-density residential development are now declining as structural changes within the economy are permitting industry to relo- cate. Job opportunities are following housing into the suburbs and the need for travel is thereby reduced. As a consequence, processes leading to increased levels of congestion, declining energy efficiency and a deteriorating urban environment are being reversed. In other words, the viability of low-density urban forms and the efficiency of car- dependence is being demonstrated (Brotchie, 1992; Gordon et al, 1989).

The policy implications of this alternative analysis are not difficult to infer. There is no pressing need for change: the city has a capacity to regulate itself. Accordingly Brotchie, who is developing this case in the Australian context, argues that 'choice' and 'diversity' should be the key guides to policy making. Given that about 80% of Australian housing stock currently takes the form of detached low-density housing, one could assume that 'diversity' might mean support for more compact housing forms. However, for Brotchie it appears to mean more of the same: 'consideration of lower densities' in order to facilitate 'consolidation of residential services' (Brotchie, 1992, p 22). And, needless to say, 'opportunities for urban public transport may be limited' (Brotchie, 1992, p 23). In short, this general case implies that attempts to reduce car dependence are misconceived. We have replied in detail (Newman and Kenworthy, 1992) to the US prototype of this argument (Gordon et al, 1989). 2 The points noted

2Cervero (1992a) has been very critical of Gordon, et al 's data as well as their approach. In his analysis of census and travel data he finds little to support their contention that the city is self- regulating towards a better balance between housing and jobs. He suggests: 'One might expect suburbanisat ion of work to shorten commute distances. However, in the US, average commutes actually increased by a whopping 25 per cent during the 1980's, accounting for 38 per cent of the increase in VMT. Many suburban workers are simply priced out of housing near their workplace, or excluded because of zoning barriers or discrimina- tion' (p 36). Cervero (1992a) conludes that to achieve a more balanced city better physical planning is required: 'Bold planning initiatives - such as zoning for apar tments near major work centers and the granting of tax credits and impact fee waivers to those who build downtown and near jobs - are needed" (p 36).


below raise a number of further questions relating to Brotchie's development of the argument in the Au- stralian context. The Brotchie approach, it should be noted, was used extensively by the House of Repre- sentatives Committee on Long Term Strategies (1992).

Brotchie's theoretical argument for self-regulation involves a hypothetical city with all employment at the centre and all housing scattered evenly around it. This city, he suggests, will slowly and inevitably disperse its employment outwards. He measures how far from that hypothetical city Australian cities have moved and claims they are becoming more efficient. Of course the completely centralized city has never existed, nor was there ever much tendency towards this until relatively recently. The original pre-1880s walking city was highly mixed in its housing and employment, as was the post-1880s transit city although it had a steep density gradient of both employment and housing. The car, together with the influence of town planning that segregated housing from industry, did more to 'unmix' the city than anything which went before. Thus the car-based city saw residential areas scatter in all directions and employment slowly follow it, not because of a new kind of self-regulating mechanism but because it is inherently a slower process. High profile and certain service jobs have always been centralized but there is nothing new about the suburbanization of work. Thus the 'improvements' which Brotchie identifies in this way are 'improvements' against a worst scenario which has never existed; they are, in other words, largely abstract and fictional 'improvements'.

Before suggesting that dispersal is moving our cities towards a greater 'efficiency' it is necessary to clarify what efficiency is. For Brotchie the city is efficient if the jobs scatter amongst the houses, regardless of density or layout. However, theoretical urban form considerations would suggest this is not very efficient. Gilbert and Dajani (1974) summarized theoretical transport and urban form studies and concluded that clustering of activities (housing and jobs) into nodes produced the potential for reduced travel. Black and Katakos (1981) concluded the same. Dispersion can lead to either shorter commutes if home and work are nearby or to much longer distances if they are not. The optimum of nodal centres was seen to relate most closely to the theoretically more efficient city for both reduced travel and viable transit links. Brotchie's assumption of an increase in efficiency, merely because of low-density dispersion, reveals a very thin theoretical base.

The empirical case on which the self-regulating city rests remains extremely thin also, as Cervero (1992) found with the US data. Brotchie suggests that a very slight turn around in average journey-to- work times which purportedly occurred in Mel- bourne between 1976 and 1986 signals the beginning



of a major reversal. As a result of employment decentralization, average travel times were calcu- lated to have fallen from 32.49 to 31.41 minutes. The reality is that average jou rney to work times throughout history have been around 30 minutes, whatever the mode (Manning, 1978). However , it is now clear that even these small estimated reductions in travel time are themselves incorrect. 3

Slightly stronger reversals in travel time are re- vealed in the USA. As mentioned, however, these US data have been criticised and Cervero and Land- is (1992) suggest that where employment has dis- persed, car usage has gone up considerably at the expense of transit. They examined changes in commuting patterns of San Francisco Bay workers, after their offices were moved from the central area to various suburban locations. Their research suggests that vehicle kilometre travelled (VKT) actually tri- pled as a result of these moves, further exacerbating congestion, energy use and emissions. They state that:

When their offices were in San Francisco, only 22.8 percent of the respondents drove to work alone; after their jobs relocated to the suburbs, the share jumped to nearly three-quarters. Accordingly the share taking rapid transit (BART) or buses to work plummeted from 58.1 percent to just under 3 percent (p 283).

Even if the travel time data had been correct, the most obvious objection to Brotchie's argument is that his Melbourne data did not actually show journey-to-work distances declining. Indeed, between 1976 and 1986 they rose: from 13.81 to 14.97 kms. The whole of the subsequent argument is built on the proposition that we are moving in the oppo- site direction - towards zero. In Brotchie's own data, there is no such movement. If the travel time data had been reliable, we would, at best, have been talking about faster rather than shorter trips to work. The cost implications - private, public and external - are likely to be very different. Faster trips do not necessarily imply improved efficiency: they could be predicated on significantly increased investment in roads and freeways or merely a switch of modes from transit to cars; as such they might

3The reason for this is that they are based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data which appeared to show a reduction in central area bound work trips from 363 414 to 303 599 from 1976 to 1986. But this reduction never occurred. There was a group of approximate- ly 60 000 workers who in 1986 specified their work destination as simply Melbourne and the ABS were apparently unable to allocate them to a specific postcode within the general area of the central city. However, further work and cross checking with other data resulted in ABS producing new figures on central city work trip destinations - the result was 362 814, or almost the same as the earlier figure. Using these numbers, travel times have con- tinued to increase rather than decrease, as originally thought by Brotchie. This is now recognized by Brotchie (Paul Mees, Uni- versity of Melbourne - personal communication).

involve higher costs in terms of fuel consumption, air pollution or traffic accidents, as noted by Cervero and Landis (1992). It should be noted too that Cervero and Landis found that the overall average commuting distance did not change as jobs dis- persed.

Similar patterns seem to be evident in Australia. Despite the decentralization of employment and the theoretical possibility of ever shorter trips to work, the Victorian Depar tment of Labour has shown that more workers in outer western Melbourne were travelling beyond their municipalities to find work in 1986 than they were in 1981; employment self- containment was declining. The study predicted that by 2031, Melbourne's fringe would house almost 40% of the city's workforce whilst hosting less than 10% of its jobs (cited in Commonwealth Govern- ment Social Justice Strategy, 1991). It appears that there is no evidence for a new and more efficient city based on the forces of dispersal: that which is available suggests only that dispersal leads to greater automobile dependence.

During the period examined by Brotchie, there was in fact a very rapid growth in car use overall (in Melbourne as in US cities such as Los Angeles, as outlined in Table 1). Traffic volumes have grown due to increased population and car ownership and reduced transit and walking. Predictions in all Australian cities point to massive traffic congestion, even with substantial road building. In Sydney, the Road Traffic Authority (RTA) predicts a 600% increase in congestion in 25 years (Travers Morgan et al, 1991). To argue for self-correction and improvement on the basis of uncertain and ambiguous trends, which must stand against massively demora- lizing forecasts predicting deterioration by several orders of magnitude, suggests little more than wish- ful thinking.

Our approach is to argue that the city faces two futures - one involves more sprawl in which employment and housing is scattered loosely and at low density (the 'self-regulating' model); the other involves a movement towards subcentres that are transit-oriented and which have concentrations of jobs, housing and other services. This latter city model has, we believe, much more chance of achiev- ing the efficiencies hoped for by Brotchie and others. It also promises to reduce the external costs and equity problems of the sprawling city in a way the self-regulating city can never do.

Whilst there is no evidence supporting the dis- persed, self-regulating city, there is now very clear evidence supporting the case for a multi-centred city based around rapid rail. Recent research from Stockholm proves this conclusively. Cervero (1995) has shown how Stockholm has grown by accommo- dating a large proportion of its new population in high density, mixed use satellite towns built around rail stations. These centres, while having a good

60 Cities 1995 Volume 12 Number 1

mixture of housing and jobs, do not have very strong 'self-containment' (ie a high proportion of residents commute out to other locations and many local jobs are filled by people living outside the centre). However, the commuting that occurs is highly transit-oriented (more than half of all workers and a third of all residents commute each day by transit). For those who do live and work locally in the new towns, more than 50% walk and cycle to work and almost 25% use local buses. As for residents of new towns commuting to central Stockholm, over 75% use transit.

The role of urban reform programmes such as Australia's Better Cities in demonstrating examples of this city model in Australia is a valid extension of many transport and land use studies which stress the need to manage travel demand (Goodwin et al, 1991). That the Australian House of Representa- tives report mentioned earlier chose to ignore them and instead highlighted a speculative theory that the city is self correcting on transport and land use problems, only reveals its assumptions as a classic example of cynicism towards physical planning in- tervention in cities.

Broader questions Despite differences between them, the three approaches to the city outlined above share a common assumption: physical planning instruments are secondary or inferior to economic instruments. All the authors examined are working within a disciplin- ary framework (economics) which, quite appro- priately and not surprisingly, affirms the value of economic instruments in questions of policy. These instruments generally involve the proper pricing of fuel and infrastructure. As already indicated, we do not try to deny the importance of these instruments. However, for the various reasons outlined below we believe that economic and pricing policy instruments are best used in conjunction with a range of physical planning instruments.

The politics of pricing Trying to influence urban form and transport choices by increasing the price of fuel alone will be politically difficult. Apart from the protests of those lobby groups associated with cars and roads there are equity considerations that cannot be neglected. Although a significant number of outer urban residents may be comfortably accommodated, the majority remain first home buyers and renters who may be struggling. In our analysis of a housing and location choice survey (Newman, Kenworthy and Vintila, 1992) we show that the poor in Australian outer suburbs are required to travel more than the wealthy in inner suburbs. Increasing prices will have intermediate and disproportionately severe impacts on their lives and budgets.


The same arguments apply to infrastructure pricing which stresses 'user pays'. This will mean an unfair burden on new home owners who must now pay a lot more than previous home owners who were all subsidised in their purchases. The alternative approach is to try and provide some realistic options for the low-income earners whilst moving towards 'user pays'. This generally means providing better public transport and more housing options, especially affordable housing close to good transit services. This is the approach taken by the Better Cities programme. It involves using the carrot instead of, or as well as, the stick in reforming automobile dependent Australian cities.

Better Cities involves an emphasis on physical planning instruments to provide new options rather than forcing them via economic instruments. It will be more successful in the longer run if combined with pricing changes, but it does provide an opportunity to begin the process of reform. It also has an important demonstration function that can help edu- cate the public and the urban development profes- sional on how city forms can be more dense, less car-based and also more attractive.

Yet another approach - generally put forward by conservative politicians - suggests that fuel costs are too high and that for economic reasons prices should be cut severely. Despite having some immediate political appeal, the negative implications for cities and transport systems would be considerable (New- man, 1992).

The politics of planning Many of the economists commenting on these issues say that Australian and US cities do not need a European style planning system - they imply that to achieve any change will require far greater regulation. US economists call it the 'command and control' approach. They fail to recognize that all cities in Australia and the USA are already developing in accordance with substantial physical planning regimes which are probably equal in regulatory power and scope to those in Europe; state and local government statutory land use plans, systems for determining transport infrastructure spending, environmental impact assessment procedures. These planning instruments are powerful and, contrary to the impress- ion given by the economists, are being used. They are not, however, being used much to curb urban sprawl or to facilitate large scale urban consolidation as they are in Europe; nor are they being used much to facilitate or build new transit systems. They are being used instead in quite detailed and powerful ways, to develop new low-density suburbs on the fringe and to build large road systems.

The assumption is made that the market place is being served by these processes. Frequently however, existing planning regimes favour some development outcomes over others - either by con-

Ci, ies 1995 Volume 12 Number 1 6 1


straining consumer preferences or supply options. Many planners believe, for example, that latent demands for medium-density housing (and better public transport) are not being tapped properly. Deakin (1991) analyses some US cases where a more clear market approach was taken which led to a distinctly higher-density urban form. There is also a very clear market niche emerging in the San Francis- co Bay Area around BART stations for high-density clustered housing (previously excluded by anti-high- density planning regulations). Bernick (1993) lists 11 projects recently developed within 400 m of BART stations amounting to over 4 500 dwellings, plus a further 2 800 planned dwellings in another seven developments. The trend in the Bay Area now is not just to build high-density housing but to begin creating genuine 'transit villages' by pedestrianizing the environments around stations.

The key point, however, is this: while physical planning reforms can reduce, contain and eliminate regulations and practices that are out of date, distant market processes do little for the city reform process (Roseth, 1992). It is simply wrong to claim that physical planning instruments in Australia and the US are weak and that citizens in their cities do not have or do not want to exercise the necessary power to intervene in our cities - they do and they are.

Both physical planning and economic instruments are necessary to improve cities. They should be used in ways which complement and support one another. At the moment, neither is being used to positive effect. Economic instruments are not being used to bring about change as they are politically difficult and, meanwhile, physical planning continues to shape our cities in ways we are beginning to regret. It is surely appropriate to suggest, therefore, that such a system be redirected so that planners are more fully aware of the consequences of their density zonings and transport infrastructure priorities. One of the benefits of urban reform programmes such as Better Cities so far is that many other levels of government and different agencies begin to see how reform projects can be facilitated.

The moral dimension Sometimes the reaction to proposals that physical planning should be used to control urban sprawl and minimize the impact of the car is so strong that we wonder what is behind it. The call for greater use of economic instruments is often made in a reaction of clear distaste for the physical planning goals which are articulated, particularly where these goals involve increased densities. The response is often quite personal and generally says 'leave us alone, we enjoy low density urban life the way it is'. Such reactions are sometimes directed at urban reform programmes as well.

We can sympathise with this. Australian and US cities can be good places to live in. The present

low-density city will remain the major option for a long time even if the changes we suggest begin to happen quite quickly. But we can never be compla- cent about the growing list of problems in low- density cities. Important moral questions lie beneath much of this discussion. For a number of commentators such as Troy and Stretton, who are more outspoken about the moral issues, there is a clear assumption that the low-density city is a morally better one. They make an impassioned case for the egalitarian role of the backyard. 4 In this, they follow a powerful Anglo-Saxon tradition initiated by the Garden City movement, which attempted to solve the moral problems of the 19th century industrial city by building with plenty of space for each family.

'Density beyond a certain point results in dis- order, vice and disease' wrote Charles Moore in 1909, and 'Foul air prompts to vice and oxygen to virtue' wrote John Rauch in 1869, as he campaigned against the evils of tenement dwellings. From their perspective, individuals and families would be given a whole new moral order if taken from the evil city and allowed a more rural, spacious suburb in which to live. The fallacies and sometimes questionable motives of this simplistic moral-physical determinism have been critically explored (Boyer, 1978; Boyer, 1983). Whatever the historical verdict, this argument is certainly inadequate as a basis for addressing the problems of late 20th century cities. It is inadequate to address the problems being faced by our spatially-lavish cities, not the least of which are the many problems of excessive car-dependence (including a return to 'foul air'). These problems call on us to be just as moral but more creative in our use of space and in our transport systems.

Troy also suggests there can be environmental benefits in low-density cities, although these are dismissed by a conservation movement representa- tive (Diesendorf, 1992). Solutions to the problems of sprawl and car dependence require some vision of alternative urban forms and transport systems. Our emphasis on light rail, traffic calming and urban villages (Newman, Kenworthy and Robinson, 1992) comes from experience in cities from around the world that have grappled with these same issues and found some hope. In Freiburg, as outlined earlier, the three policies which Pucher and Clorer (1992) suggest were used by that city to ' tame the auto' are:

Firs t , it h a s s h a r p l y r e s t r i c t ed a u t o u se in the city.

4Proponents of the backyard as a moral necessity rarely point out that the number of traditional households for whom the backyard was defined is down to less than 30% of Austral ian and US city dwellings. Also new urban designs have shown that backyards can be retained while increasing our city densities two or three times. For higher-density nodes the alternative European technique is to make cooperatively managed spaces that are flexibly available for all backyard type functions without the considerable waste in space found in many urban areas.


Second, it has provided affordable, convenient and safe alternatives to auto use. Finally, it has strictly regulated development to ensure a compact land use pattern that is conducive to public transport, bicy- cling and walking (Pucher and Clorer, 1992, p 386).

The urban village concept comes in for particularly scathing moral criticism by Troy (1992) who suggests it is a 'new feudalism'. He does a service to the urban policy public in pointing out how an urban village can be turned into an elitist area where all that is best in urban services is reserved for a privileged few. Such is happening in reality in Los Angeles (and other US cities) within the so-called 'Gated Communities' . These are surrounded by high walls and are controlled by security guards. Inside there are expensive dwellings set amongst golf courses, health clubs and fashionable shops. When people leave they do not dare walk; instead they run the gauntlet in their cars through streets that are in- creasingly alien, hostile and squalid. There are 52 gated communities in Southern California and a further 350 are planned.

Such a vision ought not to be allowed to infect Australian urban life. Pat Troy has been a powerful conscience on such equity issues in Australian cities for some years. However , just because an area is planned as a high-density, mixed use urban village does not mean it will inevitably be elitist. Such a physical determinism is an affront to those planning and building urban villages in Australia, particularly those who are part of the Better Cities programme. Physical planning instruments are being used to ensure they are built on transit lines near good services, with a mixture of affordable housing (and social housing) as well as the broader benefits of a quality urban environment.

The urban villages we have surveyed in Europe and Canada are mostly in this latter category - they are not peopled by feudalistic elites but by ordinary families, older folks, young people and the wealthy. They are not ghettos of either the poor or the rich, and are not walled and secured but open to all who wish to move through their public spaces or enjoy their community and retail facilities. To reject higher-density settings as inevitably feudalistic and anti-human denies a whole urban design tradition and literature on the way housing and street design and crime prevention are linked and how higher- density settings are so much a part of urban culture and vitality (Jacobs, 1961; Mumford, 1961). Pointing out the potential inequities in urban villages such as the Los Angeles 'gated communities' is only one side of the equity coin; the other is what happens outside the walls of these communities due to low-density car-based sprawl in a consumerist market-dominated style of city. The refusal of Troy and others to recognize the growing inequities, inefficiencies and unsustainable trends of such tendencies in most


low-density cities (whether Los Angeles or Austra- lian cities) is a major concern.

The most powerful ally of the urban poor in preventing such tendencies is physical planning, whilst the most potent force against them is a single-minded application of the user pays principle. Yet even Troy, in his desire to denigrate the case for increased densities, is prepared virtually to abandon the kind of physical planning processes that most Australian cities are developing in order to consoli- date their urban form - in favour of user pays. We would prefer to work them together. This is a moral commitment over which we would not be happy to compromise; it is fortunately a major part of the Better Cities programme.

Hope for the common good In order to ensure that consolidating developments, such as those supported by urban reform programmes such as Better Cities, can simultaneously help a city to reduce its environmental problems, its economic problems and its social problems, there is an obvious need to provide an integrated planning approach. Better Cities stresses this as the most important lesson to be learnt from its demonstration projects. Integrated planning is always needed if the common good is to be found in any new development. A commitment to the broader public good is fundamental to all enlightened physical planning; it must be clearly distinguished from simply catering to individualized private consumption such as occurs in the high-density gated communities discussed above or in low-density privatized suburbs. Stretton (1989) has highlighted the common good features of physical planning through the importance of affordable housing but does not apply the principle in ways that can help minimize the car-dependence of our cities.

The overall conclusion to the Australian House of Representatives Committee on Long Term Strategies report (1992) on the Pattern of Human Settlements is that there is little point in even trying to find such common good in more consolidated cities. Although the report makes valuable sugges- tions on the need for a more integrated approach to cities on the part of the Commonwealth, it does not find much hope for change: little can be achieved by consolidation in the form of urban villages, there is no point in extending heavy rail or building new light rail systems. These are not seen as appropriate directions because densities are unlikely to increase and new patterns of urban development are going to be much as they are now. Such a dismal scenario is not hard to devise when it is based on the kind of analyses we have critiqued above. What is most disappointing about such a report is that it is saying that the many aspects of the common good so obviously recognized in our community are not achievable. Clean air and less traffic, more attractive streetscapes and public spaces, better public trans-



port and easier access to urban services are, apparently, unrealistic hopes. They are lost in a retreat behind the difficulty of changing low-density cities or the impossibility of doing little more than catering for private consumption. This is not good enough, particularly for a long-term strategy. It stands against the Better Cities programme which does not underestimate the difficulties involved in changing Australian cities but is prepared to recognize that the process must begin.

Those aspects of the common good mentioned above can be achieved when the Australian community gives them a high enough priority and recog- nizes the steps needed to get there. Surveys on the environment indicate that the community is con- cerned for the common good and is looking for something beyond the dismal retreat into 'it can't be done' (Community and Family Commission, 1992). Better Cities and those who believe in physical planning like ourselves are trying to provide some of the options for Australian urban dwellers to consider as steps towards a more hopeful future (Newman, 1992).

Conclus ion

The debate on the preferred approach to solving urban problems such as excessive automobile dependence swings from radical interventionist physical planning with little concern for costs to radical implementation of user pays principles which shows insufficient concern for equity, the environment or how livable a city should be. As outlined in a number of ways above, we prefer to employ physical planning and economic instruments together. Urban reform programmes to reduce automobile dependence have been set up to show that alternatives can be created through physical planning instruments. As such, these demonstrations affirm a crucial dimension of urban reform processes - they begin to show some hope.

What is perhaps the most debilitating part of the debate about which instruments we should be using in our cities is that many contributors believe that no significant change or improvement is possible. There is little hope that anything can be done to make better cities. If their despair prevails, future residents of our cities will look back on their arguments as the marks of a new age of urban cynicism. There may of course, be many personal reasons why such urban analysts are unable to see much hope, including disappointed expectations in former urban ex- periments. There is universal agreement that change in our cities is difficult but it is a different matter to say that it is impossible.

Meanwhile, however, governments everywhere (particularly in the USA and Australia) continue to deploy their planning authority and resources in support of low-density greenfield suburbs and new

large capacity roads. Worse, the notion that public authority and resources could be directed to 'better' ends is scorned and the transition to a more compact, transit-oriented city which is more vital, sustainable, equitable and livable is delayed.

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Documents

Can we overcome automobile dependence?: Physical planning in an age of urban cynicism