Candidate Appearance, Recognition,

and Vote Share in Legislative

Council Elections

Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre

29 September 2016

1

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 2

1. Introduction

1.1 Candidate Appearance and Hong Kong Elections 3

1.2 Roadmap 4

2. Background and Literature Review

2.1 Summary 5

2.2 The Pilot Study 5

2.3 Limitations of Existing Polling Methods 5

2.4 Advantages and Limitations of Online Polling 6

2.5 Overseas Studies in the United States 9

2.6 Overseas Studies in Asia 11

3. Methodology

3.1 Summary 12

3.2 Materials and Measures 12

3.3 Participant Sample 14

4. Results

4.1 Summary 16

4.2 Distribution of the Candidates’ Appearance Rating

and Competence Rating 16

4.3 Distribution of Appearance Rating and Competence Rating

V.S. Vote Share 18

5. Limitations

5.1 Summary 20

5.2 Design Limitations 20

5.3 Sample Limitations 21

6. Conclusion 24

2

Executive Summary

In order to examine whether candidate appearance has an impact on

Legislative Council (LegCo) elections, the Bauhinia Foundation Research

Centre (the Centre) created an online survey that invited users to rate the 2016

LegCo elections candidates’ appearance based on their photographs (the

LegCo study). This survey was piloted on the Centre’s May 2016 study (the

pilot study) which analysed 2015 District Council (DC) election candidates.

The Centre investigated the statistical association between the rating of

candidates’ appearance and their actual vote share.

Our survey results show that candidates who were given high competence

and appearance ratings on a scale of 1-5 by participants who were unable to

recognise any of their faces did not have a significant advantage in terms of

vote share over their competitors. In addition, we found that candidates who

were recognised by more participants had significantly higher vote share than

candidates who were less recognised. Thus, while there is no strong

correlation between candidate appearance or competence ratings and vote

share in the 2016 LegCo elections, there does appear to be a significant

positive correlation between recognition rate and vote share.

The major limitation stemming from the data set is that our sample was not

representative of the 2016 LegCo voting population demographics. Also, we

were unable to verify whether participants provided inaccurate information

or whether participants filled out the survey multiple times. Nonetheless, the

LegCo study confirms that our online polling method has considerable appeal

among young male netizens and it can attract a large number of respondents

over a short period of time. We hope to continue exploring the potential for

online polling to make unique contributions in political and social research.

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1. Introduction

1.1 Candidate Appearance and Hong Kong Elections

Conventional wisdom in Hong Kong holds that voters in Legislative

Council (LegCo) elections cast ballots based on political beliefs and party

affiliation, not on candidate appearance. For example, in a poll conducted

by the Hong Kong Research Association in August 2016 of 5,016 eligible

voters in the 2016 LegCo elections, 25.3% stated that work experience was

the most important factor in deciding who to vote for, while 21.5% stated

political platform was the most important factor.1 Only 7% stated that

“candidate image” was the primary factor in their candidate choice.

Moreover, during the 2016 elections, many candidates encouraged their

supporters to vote “strategically” by supporting candidates from the same

party or the same affiliated bloc depending on their perceived chance of

getting elected based on opinion polls.2 Thus, it is very likely that LegCo

voters make their selections based on political factors, not on candidate

appearance. The fact that the LegCo geographical constituency elections

use the party-list proportional representation (PR) system also induces

voters to make their selections based on party affiliation rather than the

appeal of individual candidates.3

However, in many foreign countries including the United States, surveys

have shown that facial characteristics do play a significant role in

formulating voter decisions. Political candidates rated highly by voters

based on their photos tended to win more votes in the actual election as

compared to candidates whose photos were rated poorly. This trend is

1立法會選情速遞（三)：選戰最後衝刺階段新東新西戰況未明, Hong Kong Research

Association, August 31, 2016, http://rahk.org/research/1430/1430newsX.pdf

2 Jeffie Lam, Fairytale ending? Romance novelist and Democrat Roy Kwong may grab last ‘super seat’ in Hong

Kong elections, South China Morning Post, September 4, 2016,

http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/2014639/fairytale-ending-romance-

novelist-and-democrat-roy-kwong-may

3 Tim Ganser, Strategic voting in proportional representation systems, American Enterprise Institute,

February 25, 2014, https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/-veuger-strategic-voting-

econ-working-paper_085307749177.pdf

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especially prominent in “low-information elections” such as local council

races where voters lack information on candidate backgrounds.

The Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre (the Centre) conducted a pilot

online survey (the pilot study) in May 2016 to evaluate the effect of

candidate appearance in local elections. Participants rated 866 candidates

from the 2015 District Council (DC) elections based on their election

photographs. We found a significant positive statistical correlation

between candidate appearance ratings and vote share in the DC elections.

In order to confirm whether a significant positive statistical correlation

exists between candidate appearance and vote share in LegCo elections,

the Centre conducted a modified version of the pilot study in August 2016

featuring LegCo candidates (the LegCo study). Survey participants were

invited to rate 93 first-name candidates from the 2016 LegCo geographical

and District Council (second) functional constituency elections.

Based on the new survey data, there is no significant statistical correlation

between candidate appearance and competence ratings and vote share in

the LegCo elections. However, candidate recognition rate does have a

significant effect on vote share. This study analyses the new study’s results

and explores the implications for future LegCo elections while

overviewing existing literature on appearance and electoral outcomes.

1.2 Roadmap

Part Two overviews the pilot study, analyses the merits of online and

telephone polling, and summarises the key conclusions from overseas

research conducted on candidate appearance and vote share. Part Three

overviews the methodology used in our survey. Part Four analyses the

study results, while Part Five acknowledges limitations. Part Six concludes

by anticipating the implications for local politicians as well as the future

utility of online polling in political and social research.

It bears noting that this paper does not make recommendations with

respect to political candidates in Hong Kong. Nonetheless, we believe that

there still some helpful findings from our results that could have an impact

in politics and in opinion research.

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2. Background and Literature Review

2.1 Summary

We begin with an overview of the key results from our pilot study on

candidate appearance and the 2015 DC elections before focusing on the

merits of telephone polling and online polling in Hong Kong. Afterwards,

we will provide a brief summary of the overseas research conducted on

candidate appearance and foreign elections.

2.2 The Pilot Study

The Centre conducted an online pilot survey in May 2016 in order to

evaluate the impact of candidate appearance in local elections. Survey

participants were invited to rate 866 candidates from the 2015 Hong Kong

DC elections based on their official election photographs. Our results

suggested that candidate appearance rating is positively associated with

vote share, i.e. candidates with higher appearance ratings tended to receive

higher vote share than their competitors.

However, there were several limitations to the survey. We could not

confirm that our participants’ personal information was accurate. Also, we

did not verify whether or not participants recognised any of the candidates

in the survey. Finally, the participant sample was unrepresentative of the

electorate and the Hong Kong population. The unrepresentative nature of

the sample might reduce our ability to draw inferences from our results

that would apply to the broader population. For more information on the

pilot study, please refer to our Occasional Paper, “Candidate Appearance

and Vote Share in Hong Kong.”4

2.3 Limitations of Existing Polling Methods

The primary method used by research organisations such as the Public

Opinion Programme of the University of Hong Kong (HKU POP) to

assess popular opinion in Hong Kong is landline telephone polling.

4 Candidate Appearance and Vote Share in Hong Kong, Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre, June 29,

2016, http://www.bauhinia.org/assets/document/doc224.pdf

6

Telephone polling allows surveyors to randomly select a sample of

participants with access to a landline telephone number, which helps make

the results from these polls more representative of the population. Also,

telephone polling has been conducted in Hong Kong for many years, and

it remains the preferred method for pollsters worldwide.

However, many Hong Kong residents are increasingly using cell phones

as their primary form of communication. The number of mobile phones

in service in Hong Kong reached 12.3 million by 2015, while the number

of landlines dropped from 2.14 million in 2006 to 1.48 million by March

2015.5 20% of local residents do not have access to a landline telephone.

Meanwhile, the percentage of Hong Kong residents with Internet access

is relatively high. According to GO-Globe HK, the estimated number of

Internet users in Hong Kong in 2014 was 5.75 million, with an overall

Internet penetration rate of 73%.6 96% of smartphone users used their

phones to browse the Internet every day, which GO-Globe HK reports

to be the highest rate of smartphone web browsing in Asia.

Despite the popularity of Internet browsing and smartphone, the sampling

method for telephone polling used by organisations such as HKU POP

primarily targets landline numbers. Approximately 20% of Hong Kong

residents have no chance of being included in landline polls.7

2.4 Advantages and Limitations of Online Polling

According to GO-Globe HK, 97% of men aged 20-29 and 93% of women

aged 20-29 owned smartphones, while 94% of men aged 30-39 and 87%

of women aged 30-39 owned smartphones.8 77% of all smartphone users

do not leave their home without their phones, and 96% of all smartphone

5 Stuart Lau, Hong Kong pollsters prefer to stick with landline phones for surveys, South China Morning

Post, June 16, 2015, http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/1822633/hong-

kong-pollsters-prefer-stick-landline-phones-surveys

6 Internet Usage in Hong Kong- Statistics and Trends, GO-Globe HK, August 6, 2014, http://www.go-

globe.hk/blog/internet-usage-hong-kong/

7 Stuart Lau, Hong Kong pollsters prefer to stick with landline phones for surveys.

8 Smartphone Usage in Hong Kong- Statistics and Trends, GO-Globe HK, August 11, 2014,

http://www.go-globe.hk/blog/smartphone-usage-hong-kong/

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users browse the Internet every day. An online polling platform that uses

volunteers rather than involuntary participants could make it more

convenient and attractive for the next generation of Hongkongers to voice

their opinions, using devices that are constantly by their side.

Thanks to technological advances in mobile applications, as well as the

popularisation of mobile apps in general, it is possible for online polls to

be created in an engaging and interactive manner with visual components.

For instance, polls could be designed in a way that mimics popular mobile

apps, which could entice users of those apps to participate in the poll and

then encourage their friends to do so as well. If the platform is created in

a “game” format that rewards “players” with data, then the chances of

attracting a large number of participants could be even higher.

Online polls can save a great deal of time and resources for pollsters while

also providing access to an exponentially larger pool of potential

respondents. As opposed to telephone polls, which can be expensive and

inefficient, a well-advertised online poll on a popular topic could attract

thousands of respondents at a fraction of the cost without requiring more

than a handful of staff.9 This could provide more flexibility to polling

centres and public opinion programs since they will be less reliant on

funding from external organisations to conduct their research.

By making use of targeted advertising from social media networks such as

Facebook, it is possible for an online poll to recruit participants from

demographics of interest with more cost-efficiency and precision than a

random telephone sample. GO-Globe HK states that more than 3.1

million people in Hong Kong log on to Facebook every day. 10

Approximately 64% of the total population has an active social media

account. With millions of potential poll recruiters, and with marketing

options such as Facebook advertisements being available, we believe that

social media represents the “next frontier” of polling research in Hong

9 Cliff Zukin, What’s the matter with polling? The New York Times, June 20, 2015,

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/21/opinion/sunday/whats-the-matter-with-polling.html

10 Social Media Usage in Hong Kong, GO-Globe HK, May 16, 2015, http://www.go-

globe.hk/blog/social-media-hong-kong/

8

Kong, and an online platform built for smartphones may be a good

method to tap into this emerging participant base.

Online polls of course have their own drawbacks. Approximately 20.8%

of all Hong Kong residents in 2014 did not have access to the Internet on

mobile or desktop, which is higher than the percentage of residents who

do not have access to a landline. Also, not everyone owns a smartphone.

This is particularly the case for older generations; only 54% of men aged

50-54 and 36% of women aged 50-54 own smartphones.11 So it could be

argued that an online poll would be worse than landline polls in this regard

since online polls would suffer from the inability to reach a significant

number of Hong Kong residents who cannot access the polls at all.

There is currently no way of randomly selecting Internet users. Online

polls rely on recruits who are not representative of the population. Cliff

Zukin, past president of the American Association for Public Opinion

Research, states that almost all online election polling is done with samples

that are not random. Zukin notes that these samples are “unproven

methodologically,” and the American Association for Public Opinion

Research has observed that it is impossible to calculate a margin of error

on such surveys.12 This would be a problem for a smartphone-designed

poll in Hong Kong; judging by the rates of smartphone usage, it is likely

that such a poll would be biased in favour of young and male residents. In

that case a polling centre would have to select and adjust the sample in a

way that matches the overall population and accounts for bias.

Despite these difficulties, the Centre still believes that the benefits to an

online polling platform outweigh the drawbacks. The ability to generate

and distribute polls with limited resources is one clear advantage, along

with the potential to recruit more participants in a short period of time.

11 Smartphone Usage in Hong Kong- Statistics and Trends, GO-Globe HK, August 11, 2014,

http://www.go-globe.hk/blog/smartphone-usage-hong-kong/

12 Cliff Zukin, What’s the matter with polling? The New York Times, June 20, 2015,

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/21/opinion/sunday/whats-the-matter-with-polling.html

9

2.5 Overseas Studies in the United States

Numerous overseas studies have found that foreign voters tend to rely on

physical appearance when choosing which candidates to elect. For

instance, a study conducted by the University of California at Irvine found

that candidates judged to be highly competent by participants based on

their photographs13outperformed less competent-looking candidates by

13%.14 This trend was especially prominent in “low-information elections”

such as local races when voters lack substantive information on

candidate. 15 However, this correlation has also been found in

gubernatorial and senatorial elections, which are relatively higher-profile

than local council races, as well as American presidential races.16

Why do voters tend to use facial cues so prominently in making electoral

decisions? As an initial matter, human beings draw inferences about the

underlying characteristics of others based on their appearance. Moreover,

these inferences often occur spontaneously and rapidly, “leaving little

room for deliberate thought processes to inhibit or correct the resulting

judgments.” In other words, the “first impressions” that are quickly

formed about other people are difficult to reverse because “the speed,

automaticity, and implicit nature of appearance-based trait inferences

make them particularly hard to correct.”

It should come as no surprise, then, that appearance can be significant in

the political realm. A study conducted by Princeton University

psychologist Alexander Todorov showed that competence judgments

13 A candidate was defined as being “more competent-looking” if survey participants had ranked

his or her photograph highly on a numbered scale with regard to perceived competence, relative

to his or her opponent in the election.

14 Shawn Rosenberg, The Image and the Vote: The Effect of Candidate Presentation on Voter Preference,

American Journal of Political Science, February 1986,

http://www.jstor.org/stable/2111296?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents

15 Christopher Olivola and Alexander Todorov, Elected in 100 milliseconds: Appearance-based Trait

Inferences and Voting, Journal of Nonverbal Behaviour, January 23, 2010,

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10919-009-0082-1#page-1

16 J. Scott Armstrong, Predicting Elections from Politicians’ Faces, University of Pennsylvania Scholarly

Commons, June 11, 2008.

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accurately predicted the vote share of real senatorial and gubernatorial

elections. While the study assessed many character traits, such as

extraversion and agreeableness, perceived competence rankings were the

most reliable predictor of electoral results. Candidates judged by

participants to be more competent-looking won 69% of subsequent

gubernatorial races and 72% of Senate races, even controlling for the

typical advantages that incumbents have over other candidates.

Todorov argues that American voters tend to make decisions from rapid,

unreflective and appearance-based impressions, not from more

deliberative consideration. The introduction of additional information

such as political platform and party affiliation can disrupt one’s ability to

predict an election, since the average voter at the local level does not vote

based on such information. Indeed, Todorov’s experiments have affirmed

that voters are more likely to weigh appearance as a factor when they are

less familiar with the candidates. Politically knowledgeable voters are less

likely to use appearance as a factor and are more likely to decide who to

vote for after thoughtful deliberation.

If candidate appearance is merely correlated with other variables, such as

incumbency or candidate spending, then appearance may be an effect

rather than a direct cause of electoral success. To address this issue,

professors at the University of California at Berkeley conducted a survey

wherein one group of voters was shown a ballot with real candidate photos

shortly before Election Day, while a control group was shown the same

ballot without any photos.17 Candidates were drawn from a variety of

California state elections, including primary and general races.

Despite the fact that both groups were shown the same relevant and

substantive information such as the candidate’s names, political affiliation

and occupation, the group of voters that was exposed to the candidate

photos in their ballots reported that they intended to vote for appearance-

advantaged candidates at higher rates and appearance-disadvantaged

candidates at lower rates than the voters in the control group. Since this

17 Douglas J. Ahler, Jack Citrin, and Michael C. Dougal, Can Your Face Win you Votes? Experimental

Tests of Candidate Appearance’s Influence on Electoral Choice, University of California at Berkeley,

January 2015, https://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~glenz/cfwv/cfwv.pdf

11

discrepancy could not be explained by other variables, such as superior

candidate spending or incumbency, the study concluded that candidate

appearance does in fact have a direct, causal effect on American voters.

2.6 Overseas Studies in Asia

There may be significant differences in terms of the effects of candidate

appearance on elections in North American countries as opposed to

elections in East Asian countries. A study conducted in May 2015 by

Jinkyung Na from the University of Texas at Dallas presented pairs of

photos belonging to opposing candidates in South Korean National

Assembly elections and U.S. Senate and state gubernatorial elections to

American and South Korean university students.18 The participants were

asked to indicate which person in a pair looked more competent. Based

solely on these judgments, American participants correctly predicted the

outcomes of 69% of U.S. elections, while Korean participants correctly

predicted 67% of U.S. elections. By contrast, American participants could

only predict 49% of Korean elections accurately. Korean students were

even less accurate, predicting the winner in only 44% of Korean elections.

Na and his colleagues could not explain why university students in both

regions were able to predict American elections despite being unable to

predict elections in South Korea at a rate higher than chance. One

potential explanation is that Koreans could be more knowledgeable voters

than Americans. Knowledgeable voters in high-information elections are

less likely to be influenced by superficial cues such as facial appearance.

Also, Na and his colleagues argued that South Korea has an

“interdependent” culture where individuals are embedded in networks of

social relations. In this context, one’s actions (such as voting) are

motivated by social obligation rather than by the dispositional traits of the

candidates. For members of an interdependent culture, it would make little

sense to vote based on a superficial factor such as facial appearance.

18 Jinkyung Na, Competence judgments based on facial appearance are better predictors of American elections

than of Korean elections, Psychological Science Journal, May 18, 2015,

http://pss.sagepub.com/content/early/2015/05/08/0956797615576489

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3. Methodology

3.1 Summary

This section will explain the methodology of the LegCo study, including

the materials and measures of the poll as well as the participant sample.

3.2 Materials and Measures

We used 93 photos of first-name LegCo geographical constituency and

District Council (second) functional constituency candidate’s faces from

the 2016 LegCo elections. Photos were official headshots from the

elections.gov.hk website. All photos were of the same size and most

photos featured the same white background.

We did not employ any selection criteria for filling out the survey. Any

person with Internet access would have been able to access our survey if

they were aware of the website address. Nonetheless, to increase the

number of survey participants, we decided to use Facebook ads targeted

at Chinese-speaking users who indicated on their Facebook profiles that

they were based in Hong Kong and were at least 18 years of age, with an

interest in politics. The Centre also promoted the survey with its email

contact list or through newspaper articles which described the survey and

provided the link within the article.

Because the participant sample from the pilot study was comprised largely

of respondents who were male and below the age of 30, we made efforts

to recruit participants from underrepresented groups by allocating a

proportionately higher amount of our advertising budget on ads targeted

at female Facebook users and users aged 30 and over. Although we

anticipated that pro-establishment supporters would also be

underrepresented, we had no way of targeting them using Facebook’s

technology. Ads that targeted users aged 18 to 30 were given

proportionately less money, which meant that they would not be displayed

to as many users.

Links to the survey were also shared on social media by Centre members

and in Hong Kong newspaper articles. The Facebook ad campaign began

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on August 18th, 2016 and ended on September 4th, 2016. An email inviting

recipients to fill out the survey was sent on August 22nd, 2016 to a list of

3,441 email addresses belonging to people who have signed up to receive

weekly analyses from the Centre.

Participants were informed at the beginning of the survey that all of the

photos in the survey belonged to first-name party list candidates from the

2016 LegCo elections, and they would be asked to evaluate the candidates’

appearance (樣貌 ) and competence (能力 ) based on their photos.

Competence was included because research in the United States has

concluded that competence has the most significant impact on vote share

in American elections as compared to other factors such as attractiveness.

After providing some personal information, candidates were randomly

presented with five candidates from the pool of 93. Participants were

initially asked to indicate whether they recognised any of the candidates.

Each of the five photos was then displayed consecutively, one at a time.

No other candidate information besides the photo was given. At the rating

stage participants were asked to evaluate each candidate based on their

appearance and their competence on a scale of 1-5 by selecting one of five

buttons. We hoped that this method would give participants a relatively

wide range of options in evaluating candidates.

After completing the evaluations, the participants were shown the names,

political affiliations and the constituencies of each rated candidate. At this

point the participants were given the option to return to the home page.

It is possible that a participant may have filled out the survey multiple

times; in this case the user would have been counted as multiple users

instead of one. We cannot confirm how frequently this occurred.

We chose to include only the photos of the 93 first-name candidates in the

geographical and the District Council (second) functional constituencies

in our survey. We did not include the 141 candidates in the geographic and

District Council (second) functional constituency elections who were not

first-name candidates. This is because the geographical constituencies use

PR and the party list method. Voters select party lists rather than

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individual candidates, while seats are allocated based on PR beginning with

the first name on the party list until all of that list’s seats are assigned.

In both the 2012 and the 2016 LegCo elections, all of the 40 candidates

elected as LegCo members in the geographical and the District Council

(second) functional constituencies were first-name candidates on their

party lists. Therefore, while voters cast ballots for party lists rather than

individual candidates, in practice a vote for a party list acts as a vote for

the first-name candidate on that list since it is often the case that only first-

name candidates have a realistic chance of gaining LegCo representation.

For this reason we only included first-name candidates in our survey.

Including second-name candidates in the survey would have had

implications on results; for instance, each second-name candidate would

have been assigned the same vote share as the first-name candidate even

though they likely would have been given different ratings, because they

were both from the same party list. We cannot confirm whether including

second-name candidates would have changed our final conclusions.

3.3 Participant Sample

Survey participants were asked to provide their gender, age range, political

affiliation, and geographical constituency of residence before they were

allowed to evaluate faces. No contact was made with the participants and

no efforts were made to verify the accuracy of the information given.

Each time a participant evaluated five faces and provided personal

information, they were counted as a separate participant. If the same

participant accessed the survey and provided information several times

then the survey would have recorded this participant’s data as being

derived from separate participants. In total, we recorded 11,782 occasions

where a participant provided information and evaluated five faces.

Because the survey could only be accessed online, this implies that all

participants had Internet access via computer or phone. Approximately 72

participants were recruited through email and the remainder were

recruited via Facebook. 75.66% identified themselves as male. In terms

of age, 65.49% of users reported that they were 18-29 years old, 26.67%

15

were 30-44 years old, 6.04% were 45-64 years old, and 1.80% were over

65 years old. In terms of political affiliation, 23.42% of all participants

identified as pan-democrats, 47.32% identified as independents, 24.11%

identified as localists, and 5.15% identified as pro-establishment.

In terms of geographical constituency, 16.97% stated that they resided in

Hong Kong Island, 17.19% in Kowloon East, 13.77% in Kowloon West,

25.48% in New Territories West, and 26.60% in New Territories East. A

summary of the participant demographics is shown below.

Table 1: Participants by Gender

Gender Participants Percentage of Total

Male 8,914 75.66%

Female 2,868 24.34%

Total 11,782 100%

Table 2: Participants by Age

Age Participants Percentage of Total

18-29 Years 7,716 65.49%

30-44 Years 3,142 26.67%

45-64 Years 712 6.04%

65+ Years 212 1.80%

Total 11,782 100%

Table 3: Participants by Political Affiliation

Political Affiliation Participants Percentage of Total

Pan-Democrat 2,759 23.42%

Independent/No Affiliation 5,575 47.32%

Localists 2,841 24.11%

Pro-Establishment 607 5.15%

Total 11,782 100%

Table 4: Participants by Geographical Constituency

Constituency Participants Percentage of Total

Hong Kong Island 1,999 16.97%

Kowloon East 2,025 17.19%

Kowloon West 1,622 13.77%

New Territories East 3,134 25.48%

New Territories West 3,002 26.60%

Total 11,782 100%

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4. Results

4.1 Summary

In this section, we will analyse the data collected from our survey. We

focus on evaluating whether appearance rating, competence rating, and

recognition rate have a positive and significant correlation with vote share

in the 2016 LegCo elections. Vote share was defined as the number of

votes received by each candidate divided by the total number of votes cast

in that particular candidate’s geographical or functional constituency.

4.2 Distribution of the Candidates’ Appearance Rating and

Competence Rating

Charts 1 and 2 show the distribution of all 93 candidates’ appearance rating

and competence rating respectively. Most candidates were given similar

ratings and concentrated around the means of 2.33 and 2.35. The variation

of competence rating is slightly smaller, with standard deviation of 0.36,

compared with the appearance rating (standard deviation=0.42).

Chart 1

1

2

3

4

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

Mean: 2.33

+1SD: 2.75

-1SD: 1.91

Score Appearance rating

Candidate

17

Chart 2

Chart 3 plots the appearance rating versus the competence rating of all 93 candidates, which indicates a positive correlation. That is, higher appearance rating are typically associated with higher competence rating. Chart 3

Note: The coefficient of appearance score is significant at 95% confidence level.

1

2

3

4

5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

Mean: 2.35

+1SD: 2.71

-1SD: 2.00

Score Competence rating

Candidate

y = 0.6188x + 0.9121R² = 0.553

1

2

3

4

5

1 2 3 4 5

Appearance rating vs. competence ratingCompetence Score

Appearance score

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4.3 Distribution of Appearance Rating and Competence Rating V.S. Vote Share

Charts 4 and 5 plot the candidates’ appearance rating and competence rating against candidates’ vote share respectively. In both specifications the coefficient of appearance or competence is found to be positive, but the null hypothesis that it is equal to zero cannot be rejected at 5% confidence level. This provides weak evidence that vote share and appearance or competence ratings are positively associated statistically.

Chart 4

Note: The coefficient of appearance score is insignificant at 95% confidence level.

y = 1.4704x + 3.0259R² = 0.0122

0

10

20

30

1 2 3 4 5

Appearance rating vs. vote share for all candidatesVote share

Score

19

Chart 5

Note: The coefficient of competence score is insignificant at 95% confidence level.

Apart from these ratings, recognition rate may also affect the vote share one would receive. Chart 6 suggests that recognition rate has a notable positive effect on candidate vote share.

Chart 6

Note: The coefficient of popularity is significant at 95% confidence level.

y = 1.855x + 2.0854R² = 0.0134

0

10

20

30

1 2 3 4 5

Competence rating vs. vote share for all candidatesVote share

Score

y = 0.1145x + 1.4005R² = 0.2501

0

10

20

30

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Percentage of recognition vs. vote share for all candidatesVote share

Popularity (percentage of recognition)

20

To summarise, we found weak evidence that appearance rating and

competence rating are separately and positively associated with vote share

in the 2016 LegCo elections. By contrast, candidates’ recognition rate is

positively associated with vote share.

5. Limitations 5.1 Summary This section discusses the limitations of the LegCo study which affected

the ability of the survey to generate conclusions that would apply to the

Hong Kong electoral context. Since the survey was relatively informal, it

is possible that the reliability of the survey’s findings were impacted.

5.2 Design Limitations

Survey participants were online volunteers who may or may not have

corresponded with the Centre outside of the survey. We did not confirm

that their self-provided personal information was accurate. It is possible

that participants provided inaccurate information.

We did not collect information on our participants’ education level or

profession. It is possible that our participants differed in these respects

from the general electorate. For instance, they may have been more or less

educated than the average voter, or they may have been working in

different types of professions, which may have affected the type of

candidates they would rate highly in terms of appearance and competence.

We asked our participants to indicate if they recognised any of the

candidates they were evaluating in our survey. However, it is possible that

an unknown percentage of participants did not accurately indicate whether

they recognised a candidate or not. It is also possible that some

participants knew who the candidates were in a general sense but still

indicated that they did not recognise them. For this reason we cannot be

certain that all of the “unrecognised” candidate ratings were based only on

appearance or perceived competence. The fact that the LegCo elections

are “high-information” elections where every candidate receives a

significant amount of publicity also suggests that many of the

“unrecognised” candidates were recognised in some capacity.

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Each time a participant evaluated five faces and provided personal

information, they were counted as a separate participant. If the same

participant accessed the survey several times then the survey would have

recorded this participant’s data as being derived from separate participants.

A few LegCo candidates discontinued their campaigns days before the

election. Most of these candidates stopped campaigning because they did

not feel that they could win a seat based on opinion polling and so they

encouraged their supporters to vote for other candidates within the pan-

democratic camp.19 However, their names still showed up on the official

ballots, as there is no mechanism for candidates to withdraw once they

have been validated. Moreover, their supporters were not obligated or

forced to vote for another candidate in his or her place. Since there is no

way of verifying how much of an impact these actions may have had on

vote share, we decided not to remove these candidates from our survey.

It should be noted that the survey design does not mimic actual voting,

since we did not ask our participants to select a candidate based on a list

of actual candidates running in a constituency. Also, unlike the DC

elections, the LegCo geographical and District Council (second) functional

constituency elections use proportional representation. Each candidate in

a PR election tends to receive less vote share than candidates in a first-

past-the-post election, because there tends to be more candidates per

constituency. For this reason analysis of appearance and competence

ratings may not provide a useful inference of LegCo vote share. It is also

not appropriate to compare the results from this survey to the pilot study

because of the different electoral systems for each election.

5.3 Sample Limitations Our survey used non-probability and non-random sampling. We asked for

volunteers rather than selecting a random selection of participants. In

general, subject to the topic being studied and the research questions to

be framed, researchers prefer probabilistic or random sampling methods

19 Six quit LegCo race, urge support for allies, RTHK, September 2, 2016,

http://news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1282841-20160902.htm

22

and consider them to be more accurate or rigorous. Since our survey was

not probabilistic it was likely that we would end up with a sample that was

unrepresentative of the voting population. Indeed, we found that

Facebook male users from the 18-29 age range were overrepresented while

females and users over the age of 29 were underrepresented in our sample.

Specifically, although men constituted 75.66% of the sample, the

proportion of registered male voters in 2016 was only 49.06%.20 Males

constituted 45.94% of the population as of mid-2016 21 and men

comprised 50.42% of all voters in the 2012 LegCo elections.22 And while

users aged 18-29 made up 65.49% of our sample, voters aged 18-30

comprised a mere 17.04% of all registered voters in July 2016. Residents

aged 20-29 comprised 12.77% of the population as of mid-2016 and voters

aged 18-30 made up 15.23% of voters in the 2012 LegCo elections.

Pro-establishment voters were significantly underrepresented in the survey.

Candidates from the pro-establishment camp won 40.21% of the votes in

the 2016 LegCo geographical constituency elections.23 Yet only 5.15% of

participants identified themselves as pro-establishment.

By contrast, localists were overrepresented. While the term “localist” is

somewhat ambiguous, candidates that advocated for “self-determination”

won approximately 19% of the votes cast in the five geographical

20 2016 Final Register: Age and Sex Profile of Registered Electors by Legislative Council Constituencies, Voter

Registration, July 16, 2016,

http://www.voterregistration.gov.hk/eng/2016FR_sex%20and%20age_LC_e.pdf

21 Table 002: Population by Age Group and Sex, Census and Statistics Department, August 2016,

http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/sp150.jsp?tableID=002&ID=0&productType=8

22 Registered electors and voter turnout in Legislative Council elections and District Council elections by age group

and sex, Census and Statistics Department, July 30, 2015,

http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/hkstat/sub/gender/pattern_of_participation/index.jsp

23 Ng Kang-chung, With many young additions to Hong Kong’s Legco, analysts warn ‘old faces’ may run into

trouble, South China Morning Post, September 5, 2016, http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-

kong/article/2015351/many-young-additions-hong-kongs-legco-analysts-warn-old-faces-may-

run

23

constituencies.24 This is lower than the proportion of localists in our study

(24.11%), although it is somewhat debatable whether all candidates and

voters who support self-determination should be classified as “localists.”

Discrepancies between the survey sample and the voting population could

have distorted the results of the study. For instance, if younger participants

rated certain candidates more highly than older participants, then the

appearance ratings would be biased in favour of younger voters. Also, if

male participants rated certain candidates more highly than females, then

the appearance ratings would be biased in favour of male voters. There

was evidence based on our survey results that some candidates received

significantly lower or higher ratings from participants aged 18-29 or male

participants as compared to female participants or participants over the

age of 29, so this could have been problematic for our analysis.

We attempted to adjust the overrepresentation of male and younger

participants in our sample by using post-stratification data weighting.

However, weighting cannot compensate for a biased and unrepresentative

sample. Also, the vast majority of the participants were Facebook users,

and some participants may not have been registered voters. Since we did

not restrict our recruitment efforts to the registered voter population, this

means our sample is unrepresentative on this basis as well.

Thus, in spite of our efforts and modifications, the sample for the LegCo

study was unrepresentative of the Hong Kong electorate. We must

acknowledge that the survey is an unconventional learning experiment

using non-representative and non-random sampling methods before

purporting to make any persuasive conclusions about the Hong Kong

LegCo electorate.

24 Gary Cheung, Rise of localists in Hong Kong polls set to bring headaches for Beijing, analysts say, South

China Morning Post, September 5, 2016, http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-

kong/politics/article/2015349/rise-localists-hong-kong-polls-set-bring-headaches-beijing

24

6. Conclusion

The second iteration of the online poll for LegCo candidates builds upon our

progress in the trial study of 2015 DC candidates. This is because we were

able to recruit approximately five times the number of participants from the

trial study by using a creative user interface and Facebook advertisements. We

were also able to integrate new modifications to our survey which increased

the amount of data that we were able to collect from our participants.

However, there are clearly many limitations and issues for future

consideration related to the survey’s methodology, which we have attempted

to address in this paper.

As a preliminary matter it should be noted that we were unable to create an

unbiased and representative sample for this survey. Our survey method is

clearly successful at attracting young male netizens, but it may not be possible

to use an online platform and Facebook ads to generate persuasive

conclusions about candidate appearance and vote share due to recurring

sampling issues. However, if researchers merely seek to collect data on the

preferences of young people, without regard to their gender or political

affiliation, then our platform has much potential.

While both the pilot study and the LegCo study were web-based, we may

create a mobile “application” for a subsequent version. This way we could

include more interactive features while eliminating some of the issues related

to distinguishing participants who evaluate faces multiple times. Alternatively

we could overhaul our survey in a way that increases its appeal amongst

women, pro-establishment voters and older participants, or we could consider

an alternative to Facebook in terms of recruiting participants.

We will continue to report our results cautiously to ensure that we have

accounted for the survey limitations. We may also consider using longitudinal

studies that track respondents over an extended period of time. This could

enable us to conduct an in-depth analysis into the factors behind candidate

ratings that would distinguish short-term from long-term phenomena.

The results from our survey, while being derived from an unrepresentative

sample, could have some implications for the Centre’s analysis of the political

25

situation in Hong Kong. It is not surprising that candidate appearance and

competence ratings have no significant impact on vote share in the LegCo

elections, despite the fact that appearance ratings did appear to have a

significant effect on vote share in the 2015 DC elections. This is because each

LegCo candidate receives far more public attention over the course of the

election campaign, for instance through televised debates, as compared to

2015 DC candidates who typically do not receive the same amount of media

exposure.

Moreover, the stakes are much higher in LegCo elections since LegCo

members have the power to veto certain government bills. The pan-

democratic camp constantly emphasised the importance of maintaining

enough seats in the LegCo to prevent government legislation from being

passed as a powerful reason for their supporters to vote. It is reasonable to

assume that voters would be mindful of such considerations when they cast

their ballots rather than impulsively voting for a pretty face.

Candidates with a high recognition rate were found to have significant

advantages in terms of vote share. Many of the most recognised candidates

were also incumbent LegCo members. This correlation makes sense because

LegCo members have ample opportunities to engage with voters and garner

publicity while performing their duties as legislators. In raising their public

profile these candidates can increase the potential size of their support base.

For future LegCo elections, it may be interesting to gauge the recognition

rates of prospective candidates amongst the electorate to see if this can be

used to predict their vote share. As for candidates hoping to gain more votes

due to their attractive appearance or their competent looks, they will likely

find more success in the DC elections than the LegCo elections.