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1 | P a g e
Capacite Infraprojects Investment Idea
Apr 05, 2019
Recommendation
Buy at CMP and Add on Dips
Add on dips to
Rs. 236-220
Target
Rs. 286-305
Time Horizon
4 -5 Quarters
Industry
Realty
CMP
Rs. 236
Incorporated in 2012, Capacit'e Infraprojects Limited (CIL) is an Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC)
company for Housing infrastructure segment. The Company is focused on residential, commercial and institutional
buildings. It provides end-to-end construction services for residential buildings, multi-level car parks, corporate
office buildings and buildings for commercial purposes and buildings for educational, hospitality and healthcare
purposes. Its capabilities include constructing concrete building structures as well as composite steel structures. It
also provides mechanical, electrical and plumbing and finishing works. The company has also forayed into
development of projects for the public sector.
The company's operations are geographically divided into Mumbai metropolitan region (MMR) and Pune (West
Zone), National Capital Region (NCR), Varanasi and Patna (North Zone) and Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kochi
and Vijayawada (South Zone).
Investment Rationale:
Fast growing building contractor with marquee client base
Robust order book provides revenue visibility for next 2-3 years
Government’s Infra Push to drive demand growth
Strong Financials and Healthy Balance Sheet
Concerns:
Developer funding drying out.
Overall health of the real estate sector.
Capex Intensive Model.
View and Valuation:
We have valued the core construction business at 15x one-year forward (a 15% discount to peer average of 18x)
FY20E EPS at Rs 273/share and NPV of BDD project at Rs 13/sh. We arrive at SOTP value of Rs 286/sh. Discount
is attributable to (1) Large share of Revenue dependence on few marquee clients operating in luxury segment &
(2) Limited listing history.
We recommend Capacite a BUY at CMP of Rs. 236 and add on dips to Rs. 220 for the sequential Price
target of Rs. 286 and Rs. 305 over next 4 to 5 Quarters.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYST
Nisha Sankhala
HDFC Scrip Code CAPINF
BSE Code 540710
NSE Code CAPACITE
Bloomberg CAPACITE
CMP as on 05 Apr 19 236
Equity Capital (Rs Cr) 68
Face Value (Rs) 10
Equity O/S (Cr) 6.8
Market Cap (Rs Cr) 1600
Book Value (Rs) 110
Avg. 52 Week Vol 122958 52 Week High 273
52 Week Low 171
Red flag Price Level 190
PCG Risk Rating * Yellow
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 43.79
Institutions 12.62
Non Institutions 43.59
Red Flag Level
Rs. 190
2 | P a g e
Capacite Infraprojects Investment Idea
Apr 05, 2019
Financial Summary (Standalone)
Year Ending March
(Rs mn) 3QFY19 3QFY18 YoY (%) 2QFY19 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net Sales 4,494 3,665 22.6 4,431 1.4 13,356 18,019 21,216 26,836
EBITDA 618 496 24.5 645 (4.1) 2,033 2,550 3,150 3,985
APAT 239 226 5.4 230 3.9 787 1,024 1,236 1,636
Diluted EPS (Rs) 3.51 3.33 5.4 3.38 3.9 11.6 15.1 18.2 24.1
P/E (x) 14.8 20.3 15.6 13.0
EV / EBITDA (x) 6.6 5.4 4.4 3.4
RoE (%) 15.0 12.9 13.8 15.9
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
Capacite is an EPC company for
Housing infrastructure segment. In
the last Seven years, has emerged
as a preferred contractor for
construction of private residential,
commercial and institutional
buildings.
Capacite’s order book amounted
stands at ~Rs 75.2bn (ex 43.6 bn
MHADA) 9MFY19 (almost entirely
under execution). Order to Sales
ratio of the company for the same
period is 4.3x, which provides
medium term revenue visibility.
Total order inflow in 9M was ~Rs
36.2 bn.
Given its strong operational
credentials, a robust balance sheet,
strong revenue visibility, tight
control on WC, we expect Capacite
to continue to demonstrate
exceptional execution and earnings
growth trajectory.
We have valued the core
construction business at 15x one-
year forward FY20E EPS at Rs
273/share and NPV of BDD project
at Rs 13/sh. We arrive at SOTP
value of Rs 286/sh.
We recommend Capacite a BUY at Rs. 236 and add on dips to Rs. 220
for the sequential Price targets of
Rs. 286 and Rs.305 over next 4 to 5
Quarters.
Investment rationale:
Fast growing building contractor with marquee client base
In the last seven years, Capacite has emerged as a preferred contractor for construction of private
residential (high-rise & super high-rise), commercial and institutional buildings.
Despite so many headwinds in the industry company has managed to grow on a strong footings.
Company’s revenue between FY14 to FY18 has seen 66% CAGR while order book has rose at 31% CAGR.
Now, the order book has stands at ~Rs 75.2bn 9M FY19 (almost entirely under execution).
Single-segment focus, presence in fast-growing regions, use of own modern system formwork and
technology prowess has aided in garnering repeat orders from large and reputed developers. Large
clients in order book include Oberoi Realty, Lodha Group, Wadhwa group, Godrej Properties, Kalpataru
Group, Brigade Developers, Brookfield Asset Management, and Saifee Burani among others. From public
sectors also company has received orders from MHADA and BSNL. Top 10 Client group contributes ~75%
of the order Book of the company.
3 | P a g e
Capacite Infraprojects Investment Idea
Apr 05, 2019
Marquee Clientele:
Robust order book provides revenue visibility for next 2-3 years
Capacite’s order book amounted stands at ~Rs 75.2bn (ex 43.6 bn MHADA) 9MFY19 (almost entirely under execution). Order to Sales ratio of
the company for the same period is 4.3, which provides medium term revenue visibility. Total order inflow in 9M FY19 were at ~Rs 36.2 bn.
Public sector wins are encouraging: Post grabbing its first govt. order from BSNL (Rs 3.4bn), CIL has added another Rs 1bn project during
3QFY19. Company is also L1 bidder for Rs 4.6bn of govt. hospital. Boasting a very healthy order book backed by marquee clientele, CIL is under
no pressure to bid aggressively for govt. projects (where it doesn’t expect NWC expansion).
MHADA Order: Capacite in consortium with Tata Projects and CITIC Construction bagged an order worth Rs 117.44 bn from the Mumbai
Housing and Area Development Authority. A special purpose vehicle is formed and in which CIL‘s share is 37.1% worth Rs 43.57 bn. Company
expects the ground work to start in MHADA by Mar-19 (currently designing is in advanced stages) with revenue flowing in from FY20E.
4 | P a g e
Capacite Infraprojects Investment Idea
Apr 05, 2019
Order Book Details (Ex MHADA):
3QFY19 Order Book: Segment Wise
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
Residential
77%
Commercial5%
Institutional2%
Factories
2%
Retail8%
Govt.
4%
3QFY19 Order Book: Structure Wise
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
Super High Rise
Buildings28%
High Rise Buildings
18%
Gated
Community36%
Other
Buildings
17%
Institutional Buildings
1%
Order Backlog (Rs. bn)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
16.9322.66
28.05
42.89
56.82
75.19
FY 1
4
FY 1
5
FY 1
6
FY 1
7
FY 1
8
9M
FY1
9Book to Bill Ratio (no of years)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
4.4
3.43.8
4.2 4.3
FY 1
5
FY 1
6
FY 1
7
FY 1
8
9M
FY1
9
5 | P a g e
Capacite Infraprojects Investment Idea
Apr 05, 2019
Government’s Infra Push to drive demand growth
Rising Urbanization has created shortage for housing in urban areas. Government has also realised the issue and has given various initiatives like
Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna (Affordable housing), the Smart Cities initiative, AMRUT (urban renewal), Industry status accorded to ‘Affordable
Housing’, etc. This provides huge opportunities for real estate players. Favourable interest rates on home loans, passing of the Real Estate
Regulatory Bill, 2015 and easing of FDI norms are also expected to be other triggers.
Further, the implementation of RERA has triggered the much-needed consolidation in the sector, auguring well for organised and reputed players
like Capacite, which has a marquee client base to lead its growth and expansion. GST implementation for the sector is also a big positive.
Public sector wins are encouraging: Post grabbing its first govt. order from BSNL (Rs 3.4bn), Capacite has added another Rs 1bn project
during 3QFY19. L1 is Rs 4.6bn (govt. hospital). Company also aims to increase govt. projects’ share to ~25% eventually.
Strong Financials and Healthy Balance Sheet
Capacite’s order book amounted stands at ~Rs 75.2bn (ex 43.6 bn MHADA) 9M FY19 (almost entirely under execution). Order to Sales ratio of
the company for the same period is 4.3, which provides medium term revenue visibility. Total order inflow in 9M FY19 were at ~Rs 36.2 bn.
Going ahead also, we expect 26% CAGR in revenue and 28% CAGR in PAT over FY18-21E. Company has zero debt on net basis and also has one
of the best return ratios in the industry. RoE is expected to reach at 16% in FY21E from current 12.9% and RoCE is expected to reach at 17.6%
in FY21E from current 13.5%. NWC is Rs 81 days in 3QFY19 (55 days ex. retentions of ~Rs 1.3bn). Capacite Infra is replacing these retentions
with BGs with ~Rs 2bn of non-fund based limit (still unutilized).
6 | P a g e
Capacite Infraprojects Investment Idea
Apr 05, 2019
Valuation:
Particulars Segments Value (Rs mn)
Value per share (Rs)
Rationale
Standalone Core construction business 18564 273 At 15x FY20E EPS
Associate (Effective Share) BDD – MHADA 857 13 DCF Valuation
Total 19,421 286
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
Risk & Concerns:
Developer funding drying out: Capacite is systemically exposed to the financial health of the lending and the financing community which is
relied upon both by developers and property buyers.
Overall health of the real estate sector: ~77% of Capacite’s order book (ex. MHADA) is in the residential segment. It is also significantly
exposed to Super/high rises (~46% of order book) where the individual unit ticket size is higher. If there were to be any visible slowdown in sales
velocity, there is a risk of stressed projects being put on hold by the developers.
Capex Intensive Model: Capacite has invested heavily in specialized form works (eg. – self climbing technology) for catering to the super/high
rise segment. If the real estate sector underperforms, Capacite could witness low asset turnover during the period. This coupled with low operating
cash flows due to bloated WC can lead to debt increasing.
View & Valuation:
We have valued the core construction business at 15x one-year forward (a 15% discount to peer average of 18x) FY20E EPS at Rs 273/share and
NPV of BDD project at Rs 13/sh. We arrive at SOTP value of Rs 286/sh. Discount is attributable to (1) Large share of Revenue dependence on few
marquee clients operating in luxury segment & (2) Limited listing history.
Capacite has been able to mine a better order book share in existing clients and has very limited competition in the super high-rise segment with
tickets values >Rs 4bn. Capacite has been bidding conservatively for new orders as order backlog is robust.
Given its strong operational credentials, a robust balance sheet, strong revenue visibility, tight control on WC, we expect Capacite to continue to
demonstrate exceptional execution and earnings growth trajectory.
We recommend Capacite a BUY at CMP of Rs. 236 and add on dips to Rs. 220 for the sequential Price targets of Rs. 286 and Rs.305 over next 4
to 5 Quarters.
7 | P a g e
Capacite Infraprojects Investment Idea
Apr 05, 2019
Revene to grow at 26% CAGR between FY18-21E
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
EBITDA and EBITDA Margin
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
13.0
13.5
14.0
14.5
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
EBIDTA Margin (%)
Return Ratios
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
29.5
1512.9 13.8
15.9
23
14.1 13.515
17.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
RoE RoCE
Profitability Trend
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
13
18
23
28
33
38
43
48
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
PAT Growth (%)
8 | P a g e
Capacite Infraprojects Investment Idea
Apr 05, 2019
Balance Sheet (Standalone) Year ending March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital 436 679 679 679 679
Reserves 2,552 6,816 7,747 8,864 10,355
Total Shareholders’ Funds 2,988 7,495 8,426 9,543 11,034
Minority Interest - - - - -
Long Term Debt 670 480 450 350 300
Short Term Debt 1,282 1,908 845 445 345
Total Debt 1,952 2,388 1,295 795 645
Other Non Current Liabilities 1,099 1,035 1,139 1,252 1,378
Deferred Taxes 258 404 409 409 409
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 6,297 11,322 11,269 11,999 13,465
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block 3,255 4,099 4,589 5,033 5,434
CWIP 67 1 - - -
Investments 273 424 424 767 674
Other Non Current Assets 478 1,139 1,143 1,138 1,167
Total Non-current Assets 4,073 5,663 6,156 6,939 7,275
Inventories 1,704 2,156 2,962 3,488 4,411
Debtors 3,578 4,147 5,430 6,103 7,720
Cash & bank balances 497 3,237 1,657 1,281 1,411
Other Current Assets 928 2,132 3,209 3,778 4,779
Total Current Assets 6,707 11,672 13,258 14,650 18,321
Creditors 3,097 4,468 5,924 6,975 8,823
Other Current Liabilities & Provns 1,387 1,545 2,222 2,616 3,309
Total Current Liabilities 4,484 6,013 8,146 9,591 12,131
Net Current Assets 2,223 5,660 5,113 5,060 6,190
Misc Expenses & Others - - - - -
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 6,297 11,322 11,269 11,999 13,465
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
Income Statement (Standalone) Year ending March (Rs mn) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
Net Revenues 11,251 13,356 18,019 21,216 26,836
Growth (%) 39.9 18.7 34.9 17.7 26.5
Material Expenses 7,955 9,663 13,235 15,562 19,684
Employee Expenses 867 1,166 1,514 1,761 2,227
Other Operating Expenses 458 494 721 743 939
EBIDTA 1,971 2,033 2,550 3,150 3,985
EBIDTA (%) 17.5 15.2 14.2 14.8 14.8
EBIDTA Growth (%) 88.6 3.1 25.4 23.6 26.5
Depreciation 651 672 870 1,141 1,304
EBIT 1,320 1,361 1,680 2,009 2,681
Other Income (Incl. EO Items) 151 244 358 308 298
Interest 417 398 464 416 462
PBT 1,054 1,207 1,575 1,902 2,516
Tax 362 420 551 666 881
RPAT 692 787 1,024 1,236 1,636
APAT 692 787 1,024 1,236 1,636
APAT Growth (%) 45.1 13.7 30.1 20.8 32.3
EPS 15.9 11.6 15.1 18.2 24.1
EPS Growth (%) (74.1) (27.0) 30.1 20.8 32.3
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
9 | P a g e
Capacite Infraprojects Investment Idea
Apr 05, 2019
Cash Flow (Standalone) Year ending March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
PBT 1,054 1,207 1,575 1,902 2,516
Non-operating & EO items (59) (208) (358) (308) (298)
Interest expenses 417 398 464 416 462
Depreciation 651 672 870 1,141 1,304
Working Capital Change (609) (917) (929) (204) (904)
Tax paid (239) (241) (551) (666) (881)
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 1,215 911 1,069 2,280 2,200
Capex (1,075) (1,368) (1,359) (1,585) (1,704)
Free cash flow (FCF) 140 (457) (289) 695 496
Investments (18) (301) - -344 93
Non operating income 38 183 358 308 298
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (1,056) (1,486) (1,000) (1,621) (1,313)
Share capital Issuance 595 3,744 - - -
Dividend payment - (31) (92) (120) (145)
Debt Issuance (236) (14) (1,093) (500) (150)
Interest expenses (382) (384) (464) (416) (462)
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (23) 3,315 (1,649) (1,035) (757)
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 136 2,740 (1,580) (376) 130
Opening Cash & Equivalents 361 497 3,237 1,657 1,281
Closing Cash & Equivalents 497 3,237 1,657 1,281 1,411
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
Key Ratios (Standalone) Year ending March FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
PROFITABILITY (%)
GPM 29.3 27.7 26.6 26.6 26.6
EBITDA Margin 17.5 15.2 14.2 14.8 14.8
EBIT Margin 11.7 10.2 9.3 9.5 10.0
APAT Margin 6.2 5.9 5.7 5.8 6.1
RoE 29.5 15.0 12.9 13.8 15.9
Core RoCE 23.5 16.1 14.9 15.6 18.6
RoCE 23.0 14.1 13.5 15.0 17.6
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate (%) 34.3 34.8 35.0 35.0 35.0
Asset Turnover (x) 2.9 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.6
Inventory (days) 55 59 60 60 60
Debtors (days) 116 113 110 105 105
Payables (days) 100 122 120 120 120
Cash Conversion (days) 71 50 50 45 45
Net Working Capital Cycle (Days) 56 66 70 65 65
Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.2
Net D/E 0.5 (0.1) (0.0) (0.1) (0.1)
Interest Coverage 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.8 5.8
PER SHARE DATA
EPS (Rs/sh) 15.9 11.6 15.1 18.2 24.1
CEPS (Rs/sh) 30.8 21.5 27.9 35.0 43.3
DPS (Rs/sh) - 0.5 1.4 1.8 2.1
BV (Rs/sh) 69 110 124 141 163
VALUATION
P/E 14.8 20.3 15.6 13.0 9.8
P/BV 3.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4
EV/EBITDA 5.4 6.6 5.4 4.4 3.4
OCF/EV (%) 11.4 6.8 7.7 16.6 16.3
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.9
Source: Company, HDFC sec Research
10 | P a g e
Capacite Infraprojects Investment Idea
Apr 05, 2019
Rating Chart
R E T U R N
HIGH
MEDIUM
LOW
LOW MEDIUM HIGH
RISK
Ratings Explanation:
RATING Risk - Return BEAR CASE BASE CASE BULL CASE
BLUE LOW RISK - LOW RETURN STOCKS
IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 20%
OR MORE
IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 15% &
IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 15%
IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
PRICE CAN RISE BY 20% OR MORE
YELLOW MEDIUM RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS
IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 35%
OR MORE
IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 20% &
IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%
IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
PRICE CAN RISE BY 35% OR MORE
RED HIGH RISK - HIGH RETURN STOCKS
IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 50%
OR MORE
IF RISKS MANIFEST PRICE CAN FALL 30% &
IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE FRUCTFIES PRICE CAN RISE BY 30%
IF INVESTMENT RATIONALE FRUCTFIES
PRICE CAN RISE BY 50% OR MORE
# Explanation of Red Flag Price Level: If the stock price sustains below red-flag, the premise of investment needs to be reviewed. Risk-averse investors should exit the stock and preserve capital. The downside of following the red-flag level is that if the price decline turns out to be temporary and recovers
subsequently, you won’t be able to participate in the gains.
11 | P a g e
Capacite Infraprojects Investment Idea
Apr 05, 2019
Source: BSE, HDFC sec Research
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
Close Price
Rating Definition:
Buy: Stock is expected to gain by 10% or more in the next 1 Year. Sell: Stock is expected to decline by 10% or more in the next 1 Year.
12 | P a g e
Capacite Infraprojects Investment Idea
Apr 05, 2019
Disclosure: I, Nisha Sankhala, MBA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Research Analyst or her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest. Any holding in stock –NO HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475. Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HSL or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is inadvertently send or has reached any individual in such country, especially, USA, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purposes without prior written approval of HSL. Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HSL may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this mail and/or its attachments. HSL and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions. HSL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. HSL and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or other deals in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.
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