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CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Dr.Heinz-Detlef Gregor,WGE Bureau
Consultant, Director and Professor a.D., UmweltbundesamtGermany
The Potential for Further
Developing Effects
Monitoring
Monitoring and modelling air pollution effects on a European scale in the framework of the
Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution
Recomm
endations for
Increasing EECCA
Participation
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
In the beginning were the effects ...
Photo: B.O. Rosseland
Photo: H.D.Gregor
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Export [ 10 5 kg nitrogen], i.e. Depositions in other European countries, caused by Germany, year 2000
ES 16
GB 58
IE 7
RO 112
BE 48
GR 18
IT 96
LU 7
AL 7
FR 210TR 39
BG 30
IS 5
NL 79
FI 142
DK 132
HU 76
SE 371
AT 268
NO 194
PT 2
PL 702
1199 BY 133UA 238
RU 653
EE 44LV 61
LT 70
396 CZ 329
SK 67
YU 43MD 11
SI 21
HR 42BA 30
FYM 4
104
CH 44 HR 36
MK 5
4.434 * 105
kgN
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Import [105 kg nitrogen], i.e. depositions in Italy, caused by other European countries,year 2000
ES 182
PT 17
AT 30
FI 0
DE 96
PL 16
12BY 1
UA 6
RU 5
EE 0LV 0
LT 0
22CZ 18SK 4
HU 13
TR 6
GR 25
AL 7
MK 3
RO 13
BG 9
HR 23
CY 0
YU 13MD 0
SI 19BA 19
51
FR 232
LU 1
BE 12
NL 15
GB 21
IS 0
IE 2
NO 1
DK 3
SE 1CH 42
855 * 105 kg
N
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
51 Parties to the Convention
Artic Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Slovenia
Hungary
Slovakia
Poland
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Finland
Armenia
Sweden
Georgia
Norway
Belarus
Czech Rep. Ukraine
Denmark
Moldova
Germany
Yugoslavia
Austria
Bulgaria
Liechtenstein
Turkey
Italy
Monaco
Cyprus
Switzerland
Malta
Netherlands
Greece
Belgium
F.Y.R.ofMacedonia
Luxembourg
Albania
France
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Spain
Croatia
Portugal
IrelandUnited Kingdom
Romania
Russian Federation
Iceland
Kara SeaBarents Sea
North Sea
Atlantic Ocean
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea Caspian Sea
Aral Sea
Canada
of America
Kyrgyzstan
Artic Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Slovenia
Hungary
Slovakia
Poland
Lithuania
Latvia
Estonia
Finland
Armenia
Sweden
Georgia
Norway
Belarus
Czech Rep. Ukraine
Denmark
Moldova
Germany
Serbia and Montenegro
Austria
Bulgaria
Liechtenstein
Turkey
Italy
Monaco
Cyprus
Switzerland
Malta
Netherlands
Greece
Belgium
F.Y.R.ofMacedonia
Luxembourg
Albania
France
Bosnia andHerzegovina
Spain
Croatia
Portugal
IrelandUnited Kingdom
Romania
Russian Federation
Iceland
Kara SeaBarents Sea
North Sea
Atlantic Ocean
Mediterranean Sea
Black Sea Caspian Sea
Aral Sea
Canada
United Statesof America
Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan
Azerbaijan
34
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
The Protocols
- ambition levels increased stepwise -• 1985 and 1994 Sulphur Protocols
• 1988 NOx Protocol
• 1991 VOC Protocol
• 1998 Heavy Metals Protocol
• 1998 POP Protocol
• 1999 Gothenburg Protocol – multi-pollutant multi-effect
SN
VOCHM
POPMulti
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Protocols to the Convention
The Convention has been extended by eight protocols which are all in force:
Protocol Establish-ment
Entering into force
Parties
Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone;
1999 17 May 2005 23
Protocol on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) 1998 23 Oct 2003 28
Protocol on Heavy Metals 1998 29 Dec 2003 28
Protocol on Further Reduction of Sulphur Emissions 1994 05 Aug 1998 27
Protocol concerning the Control of Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds or their Transboundary Fluxes
1991 29 Sept 1997 22
Protocol concerning the Control of Nitrogen Oxides or their Transboundary Fluxes
1988 14 Feb 1991 31
Protocol on the Reduction of Sulphur Emissions or their Transboundary Fluxes by at least 30 per cent
1985 02 Sept 1987 23
Protocol on Long-term Financing of the Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP)
1984 28 Jan 1988 42
(status J une 2007)
What are the main obstacles for so many
Parties to sign/ratify Protocols?
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
M&M Protocol obligations:
The Parties shall reduce their emissions (Art. 2),
support the provision of information (Art. 5),
gather information on effects on human health, ecosystems and materials and ensure its availability (Art. 6).
submit emission data on S, N, VOC (Art. 7),
support harmonisation of methods for monitoring and assessment of effects and trends (Art. 8).
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Cause-effect approach
Cross-media flux approach
monitor state of the environment and changes with causative explanations
develop and validate models
detect changes by biomonitoring
investigate ecosystems, cross-media fluxes
cause-effect approach
stocks at risk/risk assessment
critical levels/loads and exceedances
EOA:
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Monitoring theMonitoring theEnvironment withEnvironment withEffects in MindEffects in Mind
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
The International Cooperative Programmes (ICPs) and the Task
Force on Health: observation networks
Effects Community: 42 170 1900
ICP VEGETATION
IntegratedMonitoring
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
ICP Forests
ICP Waters
ICP Materials
ICP Vegetation
ICP Integr. Monitoring
ICP Modelling and Mapping
Taskforce Health
mt data mt dt m data mt data mtg data mtg data mtg
Armenia 2007
Belarus level I§
06
06
2005 (HM)
200520062007
2005 20052007
2005
20062007
Azerbaijan 2007
Georgia 2007 200520062007
Kazakhstan
2007
Kyrgyzstan
20062007
Republic of Moldova
level I§
07
1998 20062007
Russian Federation
0506
1996 (soil)
06
06
1987–2003
050607
2007¤(HM)
200520062007
2005 200520062007
200520062007
20052006
Tajikistan*
Turkmenist.*
Ukraine 05
level I§
07
2007 O3 HM
200520062007
200520062007
2005
Uzbekistan*
07
* not Party to the Convention ¤ Data for moss survey in 2005–2006 will be supplied in 2007. § Data for defoliation for some years.
Participation in EOA
What are the main obstacles for so many Parties to join EOA?
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
3 0
1 98 9
1 99 0
1 99 1
1 99 2
1 99 3
1 99 4
1 99 5
1 99 6
1 99 7
1 99 8
1 99 9
2 00 0
2 00 1
y e a r
P i n u s s y l v e s t r i s P i c e a a b i e s F a g u s s y l v a t i c a
Q u e r c u s r o b u r + Q . p e t r a e a Q u e r c u s i l e x + Q . r o t u n d i f o l i a P i n u s p i n a s t e r
F i g u r e 1 : D e v e l o p m e n t o f m e a n d e f o l i a t i o n o f t h e 6 m o s t f r e q u e n t s p e c i e s .
M e a n d e f o l i a t i o n c o u l d b e c a l c u l a t e d o n l y f r o m 1 9 8 9 o n w a r d s , b e c a u s e i n 1 9 8 8 d e f o l i a t i o n w a s a s s e s s e d i n t h e t r a d i t i o n a l d e f o l i a t i o n c l a s s e s i n s t e a d o f 5 % s t e p s . N u m b e r o f t r e e s : P i n u s s y l v e s t r i s : 2 5 3 2 ; P i c e a a b i e s : 3 0 1 2 ; Q u e r c u s r o b u r a n d Q . p e t r a e a : 1 2 1 5 ; F a g u s s y l v a t i c a : 2 5 9 3 ; P i n u s p i n a s t e r : 1 3 7 4 ; Q u e r c u s i l e x a n d Q . r o t u n d i f o l i a : 2 2 5 4 .
me
an
de
foli
ati
on
[%
]
1989 2001
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
ICP Forests – Selected major achievements (2006)
Significant downward trends in S deposition, no trends in N depositions
BiodiversityThe BERN Model was applied at 3 plots. Changes in the C/N ratio and base saturation as result of atmospheric deposition would lead to vegetation changes.
Dynamic modellingAssuming Gothenburg implementation many plots will show recovery within the next decades, but the original soil pH will not be reached at all plots.
Correlations between pollution status and vegetation
clear relationship between soil pH and ground vegetation
N deposition was reflected in composition of ground vegetation
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Heavy metals moss survey
Ca. 7000 (3200) sites in 32 (18) countries
Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, V, Zn, (N)
Interlaboratory calibration exercise
European heavy metal (N) in moss survey: 2005/6
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Five regional centres to collate field-based evidence for effects of
ozone
ICP VEGETATION 25th WGE session
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Biological recovery (as observed by ICP Waters in Norway) shows improvements over the last 10 – 14 years. The recovery is most pronounced the latest years
Vikedal (NO06), Baetis rhodani
0
50
100
150
200
250
82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02
year
Num
ber
Spring
Fall
Baetis Rhodani
EB.AIR/WG.1/2004/6
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
The catchment approach
process oriented - budget calculationshttp://www.environment.fi/default.asp?contentid=17110&lan=en
deposition
wet dry
tree bioelements
tree responseepiphyte response
aerosols and gases
litter fallthroughfall
surface watergroundwater
understorey veg. responseweathering
decomposition, mineralisation
soil water
root uptake
run off
soil
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
ICP Materials – Selected major achievements (2005)
Areas with increased risk of corrosion
1980
2000
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
WEG, 25th Session, Task Force on HealthWEG, 25th Session, Task Force on Health
Main recent activities
- Health risk of heavy metals from LRTAP
- Health risks of PM from LRTAP
- Health risks of O3 from LRTAP
- Assessment of health impacts of air pollution in EECCA
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
WGE, 25th Session, Task Force on HealthWGE, 25th Session, Task Force on Health
Estimated rural concentrations of ozone (average meteorological data for 1997, 1999, 2000 and 2003): SOMO35, ppb.days
2000 2020
CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Pollutants:- SOx, NOy, NHx
- Heavy metals
Receptors:- Forest - Natural and semi-natural vegetation- Aquatic ecosystems
Prioritization:
CAPACT final meeting, Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
1990
2010
Excess deposition of acidity over Critical Loads in 1990 and 2010 if the Gothenburg protocol is fully implemented.
The observed decrease in exceedances is due to a substantial sulphur reduction. However, the emission of nitrogen oxides and ammonia will continue to contribute to acidification and eutrophication.
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Recommendationsto ensure active and stepwise increasing participation in EOA
Analyse current national situation:Identify existing expertise and experts in the research community;Identify existing national monitoring and modelling activities and available databases;Provide infrastructure for national coordination / subregional cooperationDescribe areas where national expertise could benefit from capacity building or other support.
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Recommendationsto ensure active and stepwise increasing participation
Analyse current national situation:
Identify existing expertise and experts in the research community;Identify existing national monitoring and modelling activities and available databases;Provide infrastructure for national coordination / subregional cooperationDescribe areas where national expertise could benefit from capacity building or other support.
Affiliate to activities:Prioritize receptors according to their sensitivity for monitoring, modelling and research: e.g. human health, lake and stream catchments, forest soils, trees, vegetation, crops, biodiversity, technical materials and cultural objects etc.);Nominate individual experts to coordinators and participants for prioritized programmes (ICPs/TF);Appoint official national focal points for prioritized programmes;Define basic workplans for national focal points.
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Recommendationsto ensure active and stepwise increasing participation
Analyse current national situation:
Identify existing expertise and experts in the research community;Identify existing national monitoring and modelling activities and available databases;Provide infrastructure for national coordination / subregional cooperationDescribe areas where national expertise could benefit from capacity building or other support.
Affiliate to activities: Prioritize receptors according to their sensitivity for monitoring, modelling and research: e.g. human health, lake and stream catchments, forest soils, trees, vegetation, crops, biodiversity, technical materials and cultural objects etc.); Nominate individual experts to coordinators and participants for prioritized programmes (ICPs/TF);Appoint official national focal points for prioritized programmes;Define basic workplans for national focal points.
Participate in prioritized programme activities (ICPs/TF) with existing national data and expertise:Compile and submit existing data to resp. Programme CentresParticipate actively in the evaluation of those data;Ensure experts to attend annual programme meetings, always with oral presentation / written summary in English.
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Recommendationsto ensure active and stepwise increasing participation
Analyse current national situation:
Identify existing expertise and experts in the research community;Identify existing national monitoring and modelling activities and available databases;Provide infrastructure for national coordination / subregional cooperationDescribe areas where national expertise could benefit from capacity building or other support.
Affiliate to activities: Prioritize receptors according to their sensitivity for monitoring, modelling and research: e.g. human health, lake and stream catchments, forest soils, trees, vegetation, crops, biodiversity, technical materials and cultural objects etc.); Nominate individual experts to coordinators and participants for prioritized programmes (ICPs/TF);Appoint official national focal points for prioritized programmes;Define basic workplans for national focal points.
Participate in prioritized programme activities (ICPs/TF) with existing national data and expertise:Compile and submit existing data to resp. Programme CentresParticipate actively in the evaluation of those data;Ensure experts to attend annual programme meetings, always with oral presentation / written summary in English.
Design sites and start to monitor effects:Identify priority parameters and responsible experts for monitoring (for chosen most important receptors);Check minimum data requirements; Assess existing capacity for actually conducting the monitoring;Start with few sites that cover requirements of several programmes (ICPs/TF);Ensure resources to analyse data and report results.
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Recommendationsto ensure active and stepwise increasing participation
Analyse current national situation:
Identify existing expertise and experts in the research community;Identify existing national monitoring and modelling activities and available databases;Provide infrastructure for national coordination / subregional cooperationDescribe areas where national expertise could benefit from capacity building or other support.
Affiliate to activities: Prioritize receptors according to their sensitivity for monitoring, modelling and research: e.g. human health, lake and stream catchments, forest soils, trees, vegetation, crops, biodiversity, technical materials and cultural objects etc.); Nominate individual experts to coordinators and participants for prioritized programmes (ICPs/TF);Appoint official national focal points for prioritized programmes;Define basic workplans for national focal points.
Participate in prioritized programme activities (ICPs/TF) with existing national data and expertise:Compile and submit existing data to resp. Programme CentresParticipate actively in the evaluation of those data;Ensure experts to attend annual programme meetings, always with oral presentation / written summary in English.
Design sites and start to monitor effects:Identify priority parameters and responsible experts for monitoring (for chosen most important receptors);Check minimum data requirements; Assess existing capacity for actually conducting the monitoring;Start with few sites that cover requirements of several programmes (ICPs/TF);Ensure resources to analyse data and report results.
Integrate research activities:Coordinate monitoring, evaluation of data, modelling and overall assessment;Ensure cooperation, coordination and harmonisation at national and subregional levels;Conduct/participate in subregional (thematic) workshops, expert training sessions and cooperation with neighbouring countries.
^^
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Do you see more clearly now ??Do you see more clearly now ??
Thank you for your kind attention!Thank you for your kind attention!
See you in Geneva, August 2007, See you in Geneva, August 2007, and and
at 2008 programme at 2008 programme meetings!meetings!
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
......and report to WGE on your experiences,
results, technical or scientific problems,
......and expectations.
CAPACT final meeting,
Almaty, Kazakhstan 4-6 July 2007
Information on recent reports & publications, the 2007 TF Meetings and
more details on achievements and ongoing activities of ICPs and TF
Health may be drawn from the
Joint Report: Doc. EB.AIR/WG.1/2007/3,
the Technical Reports: Doc. EB.AIR/WG.1/2007/5 ..... /14
and the CLRTAP´s, WGE´s and ICPs´/TFs´ web sites:
Need more information?
27 years of work under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution has resulted in a wealth of published material and internet presentations that made it an easy task to collate this brochure. The effort of numerous individual authors, groups and organisations that directly or indirectly found its way into this presentation is gratefully acknowledged.
Try here: [email protected]
or:Programme Centre ICP Forest http://www.icp-forests.org/
Programme Centre ICP Waters http://www.niva.no/ICP-waters/ICP_index.htm
Programme Centre ICP Materials http://www.corr-institute.se/ICP-Materials/
Programme Centre ICP Vegetation http://icpvegetation.ceh.ac.uk/
Programme Centre ICP Integrated Monitoring http://www.environment.fi/ default.asp?contentid=17110&lan=en
Programme Centre ICP Modelling and Mapping http://www.icpmapping/org
Joint Task Force on Health Aspects, WHO European Ctre for Env. and Health, Bonn Office http://www.euro.who.int/air