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Capital / Cost Module
Economic Model Workshop, Philadelphia
Denis Fandel, Project Manager, MM&P1 August 2001
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 2
Outline
• Capital Time Factors
• Equipment Market
• Building Capital
• Cost Time Factors
• Manufacturing Cost
• Cost / Wafer
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 3
P& C Model Roadmap
SEMICO product group trends
Row # 7 - 71
Wafer area demand by
product group
Row # 72 - 82
Technology / wafer size
distributions by group
Row # 83 - 136
Area demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 137 - 172
Fab Capacity
Utilization by group
Fab demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 173 - 201
Row # 202 - 237
Fab Learning by Technology/ wafer size
Rules File: Row # 7 - 74
New, Upgraded Fabs by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 238 - 447
Converted, Transferred, Retired Fabs
by group
Row # 658 - 762
Fab Capacity by group,
technology, wafer size
Wafer Mfg Cost by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 763 - 798
Row # 1279 – 1451
Yield, density by group,
technology, wafer size
Row #1467 - 1524
Revenue by
product group
Row # 1456 - 1466
Transistor Shipments and
Productivity by group
Row # 1525 – 1600
Building and Equipment Capital by
group, technology, wafer size, Fab type
Row # 800 - 1220
Wafer demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Throughput Learning and Depreciation
by group
Row # 1221 - 1278
Row # 1387 - 1422
Downgraded Fabs by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 448 - 657
Cost / Capital by group,
technology, wafer size
B &E Model:
Row # 203 - 211
ITRS product group
definitions
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 4
P& C Model Roadmap
SEMICO product group trends
Row # 7 - 71
Wafer area demand by
product group
Row # 72 - 82
Technology / wafer size
distributions by group
Row # 83 - 136
Area demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 137 - 172
Fab Capacity
Utilization by group
Fab demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 173 - 201
Row # 202 - 237
Fab Learning by Technology/ wafer size
Rules File: Row # 7 - 74
New, Upgraded Fabs by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 238 - 447
Converted, Transferred, Retired Fabs
by group
Row # 658 - 762
Fab Capacity by group,
technology, wafer size
Wafer Mfg Cost by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 763 - 798
Row # 1279 – 1451
Yield, density by group,
technology, wafer size
Row #1467 - 1524
Revenue by
product group
Row # 1456 - 1466
Transistor Shipments and
Productivity by group
Row # 1525 – 1600
Building and Equipment Capital by
group, technology, wafer size, Fab type
Row # 800 - 1220
Wafer demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Throughput Learning and Depreciation
by group
Row # 1221 - 1278
Row # 1387 - 1422
Downgraded Fabs by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 448 - 657
Cost / Capital by group,
technology, wafer size
B &E Model:
Row # 203 - 211
ITRS product group
definitions
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 5
Capital Time Factor
Capital Node Factor: scaling factor recognizing the evolution of technology over time
For example: 1997 = 250nm, 1998 = 210nm, 1999 = 180nm, 2000 = 150nm, 2001 = 130nm……….
Formula = (½) Rate of capital change between nodes
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 6
New Equipment Market
New Equipment Market: total capital expenditures to equip all new fabs
Formula = New Fabs * Capital / New Fab (Column D, non-blue are extrapolations)
Column D (blue) = see Building and Equipment (base equipment $ * uplift factors)
Column D (green) = wafer size base factor, (yellow) = wafer trend base factor
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 7
Upgrade Equipment Market
Upgrade Equipment Market: total capital expenditures to equip upgrade fabs
Formula = Upgrade Fabs * Capital / Upgraded Fab (Column D)
Column D (blue) = (Add $ * Uplift Factors) - (Loss $ * Reutilization (Column A))
Column D (non-blue) = New (n+1) – New (n) within each wafer size
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 8
Upgrade Equipment Market Summary
Upgrade Equipment Market: summary of capital expenditures for all upgraded fabs
Formula = Upgrade1 + Upgrade2 + Upgrade3 + Upgrade4
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 9
Equipment Market Summary
Total Equipment Market: summary of capital expenditures to equip all new and upgraded fabs
Formula = New Equipment Market + Upgrade Equipment Market
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 10
New Building Capital
New Building Capital: total capital expenditures to construct a ll new fabs
Formula = New Fabs * Capital / New Fab (Column D, non-blue are extrapolations)
Column D (blue) = see Building and Equipment (base building $)
Column D (green) = wafer size base factor, (yellow) = wafer trend base factor
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 11
Upgrade Building Capital
Upgrade Building Capital: total capital expenditures to construct all upgraded fabs
Formula = Upgrade Fabs * Capital / Average Upgraded Fab (Column D)
Column D (blue) = Average (Upgrage1 $ + Upgrade2 $ + Upgrade3 $ + Upgrade4 $)
Column D (non-blue) = Average (New (n+1) – New (n)) + …….) within each wafer size
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 12
Build Capital Summary
Total Building Capital: summary of capital expenditures to construct all new and upgraded fabs
Formula = New Building Capital + Upgrade Building Capital
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 13
Total Capital Summary
Total Capital: summary of capital expenditures to construct and equip all new and upgraded fabs
Formula = Total Equipment Market + Total Building Capital
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 14
P& C Model Roadmap
SEMICO product group trends
Row # 7 - 71
Wafer area demand by
product group
Row # 72 - 82
Technology / wafer size
distributions by group
Row # 83 - 136
Area demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 137 - 172
Fab Capacity
Utilization by group
Fab demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 173 - 201
Row # 202 - 237
Fab Learning by Technology/ wafer size
Rules File: Row # 7 - 74
New, Upgraded Fabs by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 238 - 447
Converted, Transferred, Retired Fabs
by group
Row # 658 - 762
Fab Capacity by group,
technology, wafer size
Wafer Mfg Cost by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 763 - 798
Row # 1279 – 1451
Yield, density by group,
technology, wafer size
Row #1467 - 1524
Revenue by
product group
Row # 1456 - 1466
Transistor Shipments and
Productivity by group
Row # 1525 – 1600
Building and Equipment Capital by
group, technology, wafer size, Fab type
Row # 800 - 1220
Wafer demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Throughput Learning and Depreciation
by group
Row # 1221 - 1278
Row # 1387 - 1422
Downgraded Fabs by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 448 - 657
Cost / Capital by group,
technology, wafer size
B &E Model:
Row # 203 - 211
ITRS product group
definitions
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 15
Cost Time Factors
• Throughput Learning • new technology introduction
• new wafer size introduction
• Depreciation Factor• equipment (straight 5 years ) • building (straight 20 years)
• Wafer processing cost• throughput learning
• depreciation factor
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 17
Throughput Learning
Throughput Learning: overall percent impact of individual new and upgrade learning (See Rules)
Formula: Total Fabs Needed / Total Fabs On-line
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 18
Depreciation Factor
Depreciation Factor: percent of depreciation applicable to fixed cost
Formula: (Equipment Capital (past 5 years) + Building Capital (past 20 years)) / Total Capital (all years)
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 19
P& C Model Roadmap
SEMICO product group trends
Row # 7 - 71
Wafer area demand by
product group
Row # 72 - 82
Technology / wafer size
distributions by group
Row # 83 - 136
Area demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 137 - 172
Fab Capacity
Utilization by group
Fab demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 173 - 201
Row # 202 - 237
Fab Learning by Technology/ wafer size
Rules File: Row # 7 - 74
New, Upgraded Fabs by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 238 - 447
Converted, Transferred, Retired Fabs
by group
Row # 658 - 762
Fab Capacity by group,
technology, wafer size
Wafer Mfg Cost by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 763 - 798
Row # 1279 – 1451
Yield, density by group,
technology, wafer size
Row #1467 - 1524
Revenue by
product group
Row # 1456 - 1466
Transistor Shipments and
Productivity by group
Row # 1525 – 1600
Building and Equipment Capital by
group, technology, wafer size, Fab type
Row # 800 - 1220
Wafer demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Throughput Learning and Depreciation
by group
Row # 1221 - 1278
Row # 1387 - 1422
Downgraded Fabs by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 448 - 657
Cost / Capital by group,
technology, wafer size
B &E Model:
Row # 203 - 211
ITRS product group
definitions
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 20
Fixed Processing Cost
Fixed Cost: manufacturing cost associated with equipment and building assets
Formula = Wafers* Depreciation Factor * (Cost / Wafer) (Column D, non-blue are extrapolations)
Column D (blue) = see Building and Equipment (fixed cost $)
Column D (green) = wafer size base factor, (yellow) = wafer trend base factor
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 21
Variable Processing Cost
Variable Cost: manufacturing cost associated with labor, materials and other overhead
Formula = (Wafers / Throughput Learning) * (Cost / Wafer) (Column D, non-blue are extrapolations)
Column D (blue) = see Building and Equipment (variable cost $)
Column D (green) = wafer size base factor, (yellow) = wafer trend base factor
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 22
Manufacturing Cost Summary
COGS: summary of all manufacturing cost to execute the scenario
Formula = Fixed Cost $ + Variable Cost $
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 23
Wafer Overall Cost
Wafer Cost: cost to process a wafer plus chip packaging and test
Formula = COGS / Wafers
Column D (blue) = Nominal Cost, see Building and Equipment
Column D (non-blue) = Nominal Cost, Fixed Cost + Variable Cost
07/26/2001 6:14 PM j:\stndpres\template\IntST.ppt - 24
P& C Model Roadmap
SEMICO product group trends
Row # 7 - 71
Wafer area demand by
product group
Row # 72 - 82
Technology / wafer size
distributions by group
Row # 83 - 136
Area demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 137 - 172
Fab Capacity
Utilization by group
Fab demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 173 - 201
Row # 202 - 237
Fab Learning by Technology/ wafer size
Rules File: Row # 7 - 74
New, Upgraded Fabs by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 238 - 447
Converted, Transferred, Retired Fabs
by group
Row # 658 - 762
Fab Capacity by group,
technology, wafer size
Wafer Mfg Cost by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 763 - 798
Row # 1279 – 1451
Yield, density by group,
technology, wafer size
Row #1467 - 1524
Revenue by
product group
Row # 1456 - 1466
Transistor Shipments and
Productivity by group
Row # 1525 – 1600
Building and Equipment Capital by
group, technology, wafer size, Fab type
Row # 800 - 1220
Wafer demand by group,
technology, wafer size
Throughput Learning and Depreciation
by group
Row # 1221 - 1278
Row # 1387 - 1422
Downgraded Fabs by group,
technology, wafer size
Row # 448 - 657
Cost / Capital by group,
technology, wafer size
B &E Model:
Row # 203 - 211
ITRS product group
definitions