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Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update <Date> Presented by: <Adviser name> Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

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Page 1: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update<Date>

Presented by: <Adviser name>Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

Page 2: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

2

Disclaimer

RetireInvest Pty Limited (ABN 23 001 774 125) holds Australian Financial Services Licence Number 238429 and is licensed to provide financial product advice and deal in financial products such as: deposit and payment products, derivatives, life products, managed investment schemes including investor directed portfolio services, securities, superannuation, Retirement Savings Accounts.

The information presented in this seminar is current as at March 2008 and may be subject to change. Performance figures may have been calculated before fees and taxes. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

It is of a general nature only and neither represents nor is intended to be specific advice on any particular matter. RetireInvest strongly suggests that no person should act specifically on the basis of the information contained herein but should obtain appropriate professional advice based on their own circumstances.

Page 3: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

Taking a look at history

Page 4: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

4

Taking a look at history - Recovery from market crises

Source: Iress

1987 Share Market CrashUS market

Time to recover: 22 months

15001700190021002300250027002900

01-Sep-87

01-Nov-87

01-Jan-88

01-Mar-88

01-May-88

01-Jul-88

01-Sep-88

01-Nov-88

01-Jan-89

01-Mar-89

01-May-89

01-Jul-89

Do

w J

on

es

Page 5: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

5

Recovery from market crises

Asian Financial Crisis 1997Time to recover: 55 days

9000

9500

10000

10500

11000

11500

22-O

ct-9

7

29-O

ct-9

7

05-N

ov-9

7

12-N

ov-9

7

19-N

ov-9

7

26-N

ov-9

7

03-D

ec-9

7

10-D

ec-9

7

17-D

ec-9

7

24-D

ec-9

7

31-D

ec-9

7

S&

P/A

SX

300

Acc

umul

atio

n In

dex.

Source: Iress

Page 6: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

6

Recovery from market crises

9/11 Terrorist Attacks on the USTime to recover: 26 days

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

11-S

ep-0

1

18-S

ep-0

1

25-S

ep-0

1

02-O

ct-0

1

09-O

ct-0

1

16-O

ct-0

1

S&

P/A

SX

300

Acc

umul

atio

n In

dex.

Source: Iress

Page 7: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

Volatility over time

Page 8: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

8

Short term volatility vs long term consistency – Australian Shares

Source: S&P/ASX300 Accumulation Index, Iress

Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec

89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Volatility of Shares Australian Market (S&P/ASX300)

Rolling Returns - Periods from 31 December 1989 - 31 December 2007

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Rol

ling

Ret

urns

.

1 Year

10 Year

Page 9: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

9

Short term volatility vs long term consistency – US Shares

Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec

89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Source: Dow Jones, Iress

Volatility of Shares US Market

Rolling Returns - Periods from 31 December 1989 - 31 December 2007

-30%-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

Rolli

ng R

etu

rns.

1 year

10 year

Page 10: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

Strategies for investing – Time, diversification, financial planning strategies

Page 11: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

11

Strategies

The two greatest strategies to reduce risk of a negative outcome include:

1. Time – Time in the market reduces the chance of a negative outcome

2. Diversification – spreading investments across multiple asset classes helps reduce risk

Page 12: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

12

Time in the market

Time In Versus TimingHow missing the best trading days can significantly affect returns.

All Ordinaries Accumulation Index - 01/01/1993 to 21/01/2008

Source: Iress

All Days $62 710

13%

Minus 10 Best Days$45 513 10.6%

Minus 25 Best Days $35 525

8.4%

Minus 50 Best Days $19 992

4.7%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

Retu

rn (

% p

.a.)

Page 13: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

13

Strategies - Timing the market

Time In Versus TimingMissing the best trading days can significantly affect returns.

All Ordinaries Accumulation Index 01/01/1993 to 21/01/2008

Source: Iress

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

31-D

ec-92

31-D

ec-93

31-D

ec-94

31-D

ec-95

31-D

ec-96

31-D

ec-97

31-D

ec-98

31-D

ec-99

31-D

ec-00

31-D

ec-01

31-D

ec-02

31-D

ec-03

31-D

ec-04

31-D

ec-05

31-D

ec-06

31-D

ec-07

Value of $10 000 Invested 01/01/1993

All Days $62 710

Minus 10 Best Days $45 513

Minus 25 Best Days $35 525

Minus 50 Best Days $19 992

Page 14: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

14

Asset class returns - Historical

Timeframe: 01/01/83 - 31/12/2007

Data: Australian shares - S&P/ASX 300 Accum. Index, International Shares - MSCI World (ex Aus) in $A, Listed Property Trusts - S&P/ASX 200 Prop Trust, Australian Fixed Interest: Commonwealth Bank Bond Index (Pre Sept 89) / UBSA Composite Bond All Maturities Index (Post Sept 89), Cash: 11am Cash Rate (Pre Apr 87) / UBSA Bank Bill Index (Post Apr 87)

Source: RBA, IRESS

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007

Australian shares$361,527

Listed Property$264,718

International shares$199,519

Aust. fixed interest$113,614

Cash $82,639

Growth of $10 000 over 25 years

Page 15: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

15

Asset class performance – past 3 years

Calendar Year returns

-15.00%

-5.00%

5.00%

15.00%

25.00%

35.00%

45.00%

AustralianShares

InternationalShares

AustralianProperty

AustralianFixed

Interest

Cash

2005

2006

2007

Timeframe: 01/01/83 - 31/12/2007

Data: Australian shares - S&P/ASX 300 Accum. Index, International Shares - MSCI World (ex Aus) in $A, Listed Property Trusts - S&P/ASX 200 Prop Trust, Australian Fixed Interest: Commonwealth Bank Bond Index (Pre Sept 89) / UBSA Composite Bond All Maturities Index (Post Sept 89), Cash: 11am Cash Rate (Pre Apr 87) / UBSA Bank Bill Index (Post Apr 87)

Source: RBA, IRESS

Page 16: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

16

Why diversify? – every asset class has it’s day in the sun

Australian Shares

International Shares Property

Australian Fixed Interest

International Fixed Interest Cash

1987 -7.86% 7.56% 5.75% 18.60% 8.94% 15.25%1988 17.88% 4.68% 16.06% 9.39% -11.85% 12.88%1989 17.40% 26.77% 2.35% 14.89% 12.60% 18.43%1990 -17.52% -14.59% 8.70% 19.01% 14.79% 16.13%1991 34.24% 20.63% 20.08% 24.75% 17.88% 11.20%1992 -2.31% 5.22% 3.21% 10.41% 16.54% 6.92%1993 45.36% 24.82% 30.73% 16.32% 14.77% 5.39%1994 -8.67% -7.62% -7.09% -4.66% -10.44% 5.36%1995 20.19% 26.66% 14.28% 18.63% 24.13% 8.03%1996 14.60% 6.71% 14.24% 11.87% -2.96% 7.57%1997 12.23% 42.19% 21.91% 12.23% 22.18% 5.63%1998 11.63% 32.82% 18.44% 9.54% 22.49% 5.14%1999 16.10% 17.57% -4.68% -1.22% -10.26% 5.01%2000 4.80% 2.49% 19.71% 12.08% 19.99% 6.27%2001 10.49% -9.65% 14.60% 5.45% 7.48% 5.24%2002 -8.64% -27.13% 11.76% 8.81% 8.63% 4.77%2003 14.96% -0.29% 8.80% 3.05% -14.12% 4.90%2004 27.92% 10.43% 32.01% 6.96% 6.06% 5.62%2005 22.45% 17.39% 12.50% 5.79% -0.33% 5.73%2006 24.51% 12.02% 34.03% 3.16% -1.25% 6.04%2007 16.22% -2.14% -8.41% 3.46% -0.42% 6.73%Average return 12.67% 9.36% 12.81% 9.93% 6.90% 8.01%

Timeframe: 01/01/83 - 31/12/2007

Data: Australian shares - S&P/ASX 300 Accum. Index, International Shares - MSCI World (ex Aus) in $A, Listed Property Trusts - S&P/ASX 200 Prop Trust, Australian Fixed Interest: Commonwealth Bank Bond Index (Pre Sept 89) / UBSA Composite Bond All Maturities Index (Post Sept 89), International Fixed Interest: Citigroup WGBI Ex AUD Hedged, Cash: 11am Cash Rate (Pre Apr 87) / UBSA Bank Bill Index (Post Apr 87) Source: RBA, IRESS

Page 17: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

17

Diversification within asset sectors

*Gross performance returns are before fees and taxes. Performance as at 31 Jan 08

Source: Iress, INGIM

Top 10 stocks in 2003 v's ING Wholesale Australian Share Trust up until Feb 08

2.33%

66.43%

12.47%

-0.60%

19.46%

11.77%6.60%

-2.85%

32.98%

-0.36%

14.82%20.20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

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Page 18: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

18

Financial planning strategies

Given the recent market volatility, the following are some possible options for further discussion:

• Re-visit your Investor profile—Risk Profile

• Re-balance your portfolio—Growth vs Defensive to Strategic Asset Allocation

• Set up a Regular Investment Plan—Dollar Cost Averaging

• Pension Drawdowns—Use of defensive asset classes for funding pension income

Page 19: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

Conclusion – 8 thoughts for 2008

Page 20: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

20

Conclusion

Eight thoughts for 2008The major economic, market and investment themes in 2008 are as

follows:

1. Slower world economic growth2. Emerging economies to outperform3. Monetary policy easing4. Inflationary pressures rising5. US landing ‘hard to soft’6. Sub-prime and credit market concerns7. Australian economy still looking good8. Near-term caution is recommended

And remember, in periods of market volatility – it’s the long term that counts

Page 21: Capital Markets Analysis and Economic Update Presented by: Authorised Representative, RetireInvest Pty Ltd AFSL 238429

Thank you