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1 Capital Protect Create Wealth

Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

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Page 1: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

1

CapitalP

rote

ct

Cre

ate

Wealth

Page 2: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

“Rule No 1: Never lose moneyRule No 2: Never forget rule No 1.”

- Warren Buffet

2

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, But in the long term,

it is a weighing machine”

- Ben Graham

“Successful investing is about owning businesses and reaping the huge

rewards provided by the dividends and earnings growth”

- John Bogle

Page 3: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

We Protect Capital

3

• Close eye on earnings growth drivers• Close eye on valuations• Continuous monitoring of risk

Exit Strategy

• Portfolio exposure increased over a period• Not averse to raise cash

Staggered Approach

• Diversification across industries • Diversification across Mcap with focus on liquidity:

• ≥ 50% in large cap USD1bn+ , ≤ 10% in one stock , ≤ 30% in one sector, ≤ 50% in the top 10 stocks, Minimum investments in 30 stocks

• Flexible investment style: Growth as well as Value with focus on Margin of Safety

Investment Universe

A prudent risk management strategy is the core of our investment philosophy

Page 4: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

We Create Wealth

3M Stock Selection Approach

Identify Size of Sector Opportunity

M: Market Size

4

Size of the opportunity should be huge to generate significant investment

returns

Identify the stock for investment with

Reasonable Valuation

M: Margin of Safety

The company should provide reasonable growth opportunity at reasonable Margin

of Safety

Identify top 5 (Profitable) players in

the sector

M: Market Share

The company be consistently profitable and should be among the leading

players in the industry

Page 5: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Leading To Multibagger Returns

5Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonusGain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as per price mentioned

Stock Purchase Date

Purchase Price (Rs)

Price(Rs)31-Aug-2017

Motherson Sumi 28-Jan-10 20.5 308

Maruti Suzuki 29-Jan-14 1659 7700

Eicher Motors* 8-Aug-13 3343 15249

Hitachi Life* 22-May-14 300 1360

Shree Cement 12-Nov-11 3983 17591

Siyaram Silk Mills 1-Aug-14 604 2287

Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 514 1782

Bayer Cropscience 5-May-14 1427 4633

Ramco Cements 28-Mar-14 213 691

Timken India 22-May-14 233 720

Eveready* 29-Sep-14 102 302

HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784

HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777

Indo Count Industries* 19-Dec-14 297 785

Capital Trust* 29-Jun-15 253 601

Mannapuram Finance* 16-Dec-15 29 69

3M India 24-Nov-14 6475 14744

ITD Cementation* 23-Feb-15 65 143

Shankara Building Products 6-Apr-17 570 1193

Gabriel India* 1-Aug-14 55 114

KNR Construction* 3-Dec-14 304 608

Minda Industries 03-Mar-17 444 845

1402%

364%

356%

353%

342%

279%

247%

225%

224%

209%

196%

166%

166%

164%

138%

135%

128%

120%

109%

108%

100%

90%

Gain (%)

Page 6: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

6

Earnings Matrix Sensex AAA IOP Sensex AAA IOP Sensex AAA IOP

FY17 FY17 FY18E FY18E FY19E FY19E

EPS G(%) 1% 24% 12% 28% 18% 28%

ROE(%) 13% 16% 13% 19% 15% 24%

P/E(x) 23.4 35.6 20.9 27.4 17.7 21.4

P/BV(x) 3.0 6.2 2.8 5.3 2.6 5.4

AAA Portfolio Superior Earnings Growth

Source: AAA Research

Source: AAA ResearchSource: AAA Research

20%

24%

28% 28%

-1%

1%

12%

18%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

EPS Growth(%)

AAA IOP Sensex

16% 17%19%

24%

13%

19%

13%15%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

ROE(%)

AAA IOP Sensex

Page 7: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Wealth Creation – A Case Study

7

✓ Global home textile segment of $74bn growing at 5%✓ USA imports 17% made ups with imports growing at

~12%✓ Huge opportunity to improve market share for Indian

players in USA and Europe

✓ Reported healthy revenue and profit growth in last 5 years

✓ Ongoing expansion will lead to healthy profit growth over next 2-3 years

✓ Purchased at one year forward PE of ~6x significantly lower considering its net profit size (Rs 100 crs+ FY14) and 45% ROE

Indo Count Industries Ltd

✓ India expected to become the 5th largest consumer durables market by 2025, reaching $400 Bn by 2020

✓ Total Size of Indian A/C industry pegged at Rs.14750 Crs, with volume growth expectation of CAGR 13-15% over FY16-20E

✓ At 3%, India is one of the lowest penetrated market, leading to significant headroom for growth

✓ Market share of ~8%✓ Entry into Tier 2&3 markets with sub premium product to

improve its market share✓ Launched new products to reach mass consumer levels✓ Strong parentage means access to new technology to

offer world class products to Indian consumers

✓ Expect significant growth in profitability backed by operating efficiency and higher volume growth

✓ Market cap at Rs 800 crs, i.e. PER of below 10x FY15E –lowest in the industry compared to all consumer MNC which trades at average PE of >20x

M1

Mar

ket

size

M2

Mar

ket

Shar

eM

3M

argi

n o

f sa

fety

Hitachi Home and Life Solutions Ltd

✓ 4th largest bed sheet exporter to USA & 13th largest globally

✓ Capacity expansion from 36 to 68 mn meters in last 5 years and further expanding to 90 mn meters

✓ Focus on improving value chain by entering premium bed linen segment leading to improved operating margins

✓ No major investment in backward integration – leading to highest ROE of 44% in the industry

Page 8: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

The Investment Process….

Stock Identification

Analysis & Decision making Process

Portfolio Construction Monitoring & Nurturing

Exiting & Realizing Value

• Identify emerging trends and opportunities from a universe of 450 companies• Filter approach – using variety of valuation parameters• Strong intermediary relationship

• Initial screening• Corporate meeting and detailed due diligence• Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval

• Constant evaluation of valuation metrics to decide optimum return potential • Intrinsic value V/s Current Market Price to evaluate Margin of Safety• Change in underlying assumptions of investment thesis

• Combination of Top Down and Bottom Up approach with a benchmark agnostic strategy to achieve Long term investment objective

• Continuous portfolio monitoring ensures prudent risk management• Regular interaction to provide strategic inputs to strengthen systems, controls and CG

in line with best practices

8

Page 9: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

9

Exit Strategy As Important As Entry Strategy

Exit from Sensex 01 Jan 2011 Vs

01 Jan 2001

Exit from Sensex 30 May 2016 vs

01 Jan 2011

ACC DLF

Ambuja Cement Hindalco

Bajaj Holdings Jaiprakash Associates

Castrol India JSPL

GSK Pharma Reliance Communication

Grasim Sterlite

HPCL Tata Power

MTNL

Novartis

Ranbaxy

Reliance Infra

Reliance Petro

Satyam

Zee

Name of company Peak Price (Rs)

Current Price(Rs)

MTNL 200 20

Reliance Infra 2500 498

DLF 1200 193

Jaiprakash Associates 312 29

Reliance Communication 820 26

Tata Power 155 82

Fundamental Consistency check No. of BSE 500 Stocks

PAT growth 20%+ every year during FY06-FY15 0

Revenue growth of 10%+ every year with ROE15%+ during FY06-15

16

Monitoring of the Portfolio is critical

Page 10: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Market Outlook

10

Page 11: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Round Up – August 2017

11

The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the second quarter, at its quickest pace in more than two years, and there are signs that the momentum was sustained at the start of the third quarter. GDP grew at 3% in Q2CY17 Vs expectations of 2.7%. Japan's economy expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years in the second quarter as consumer and company spending picked up. Similarly, The Chinese economy advanced 6.9% in Q2CY17 Vs. markets expectation of 6.8%. Growth remained at its strongest level since the Q3CY15, as industrial output and retail sales picked up while fixed-asset investment remained strong. China’s PMI at 51.7 in Aug’17 further improved and was above expectations of 51.3 as per Reuters poll. The uptick in August was driven by strong production and a rise in new orders attributed to domestic demand. Though Industrial output in China slowed in July, after an unexpectedacceleration in June.

Data released by CSO shows that India’s GDP growth slipped in Q1FY18 to 5.7%. Compared to the Q4FY17 slowdown, that was largely related to lack of availability of cash, the weakness in Q1FY18 was due to adjustments to the inventories by companies in view of the GST implementation from July 1. The mainstay of growth during the quarter continued to be government spending and private consumption, though at rates lower than in Q4FY17. Consumption is expected to boost growth in the rest of FY18 as incomes areboosted by Pay Commission, good agriculture produce (good rainfall and higher MSP).

The Nifty-50 Q1FY18 PAT declined 7.5% yoy against an street expectation of 0.6% yoy growth. GST-led de-stocking impacted earnings of consumer companies. Currency appreciation along with sector specific issues resulted in disappointing performance in export oriented sectors like Pharma, Software and Textiles. There were some positive signs in capital goods segments as players like Thermax, ABB are witnessing strong traction in domestic spends.

After the disruptive forces like ‘Demon’ and GST, we expect the earnings-growth to revive from 2HFY18. Macroeconomic picture continues to remain favourable – inflation and interest rates to remain low. Government’s efforts to kick start the economy is already visible through strong capital expenditure growth. Affordable housing is another strong reform by the govt and this reform is likely to give boost to sectors like building materials, consumer products and generate employment.

We continue to remain positive on the markets with 3- 5 years view. We advise investors to use the corrections to increase allocation to the equities.

Page 12: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

UDAY (Ujwal Distribution companies (DISCOMs) Assurance Yojana) financial turnaround and revival package for DISCOMS via improving efficiency, reducing cost, and enforcing discipline

Bankruptcy Bill and Indradhanush to improve flow of capital and recapitalise public sector banks

Auction-based allocation of natural resources (e.g., coal)

Goods and Services Tax (GST) to streamline and simplify the national tax system

Direct Benefits Transfer (through the Jan Dhan–Aadhaar–mobile trinity) to promote direct transfers of financial benefits to beneficiaries’ bank accounts

Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana (Housing for All by 2022) – now middle income group also to get interest subsidy

India – Ongoing Reforms…

12

Page 13: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

13

Aadhar Card – Financial Inclusion

UID Enrollments 100 Cr (80%)

5.9 Cr

(60%)

Aadhar linked MNERGS Cards

11.4 Cr

(45%)

Aadhar linked ration cards

12.3 Cr

(71%)

Aadhar linked LPG Connections

Jan Dhan

25 Cr Aadhar linked Bank

accounts opened

Source : RBI, Ministry Of Finance

Page 14: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

GST- Size Of Opportunity For Organised Sector

14

Source: Edelweiss, AAA Research

Demonetisation and GST will lead to market share shift from unorganised to organised sector, leading to 3-10x increase in Size of opportunity in the listed equity space.

Packaging

Electrical Equipment

Plastics

Tiles

Apparels

Plywood

Dairy

Diagnostics

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00

Un

org

anis

ed

Sh

are

(%)

Size of Oppportunity (Organised Sector)(no of times over 10 years)

4-5x

6-9x

Page 15: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Drivers Of Growth – Investment By Government

15

9900

20003621

798010000

25000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E

MORTH Project Awards (Kms)

Source: MORTH, AAA Research

5

12 11

16

32

19

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E

Railways Expenditure growth (%)

Source: Emkay Research, AAA Research

30.043.6

-17.7

1.6

33.1

52.7

15.9

-8.0

3322

-49.3

54.969.1

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Revenue Spending by Government (%)

Source: MOSL Research, AAA Research

7.5

-24.4 -18.7

239.1

20.3

-165.7

11.532.8

7.2 25.8

115.7

37.7

92.4

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Govt Capex Growth (%)

Source: MOSL Research, AAA Research

Page 16: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

India Economy Recovery: Likely Repeat of FY03-08

16

Source: CSO,MOSL, AAA Research

Source: RBI, AAA Research

4.2

5.4

3.8

8.07.1

9.5 9.6 9.3

6.7

8.6 8.9

6.7

4.5 4.75.5

7.67.1

0123456789

1011

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E

GDP Growth (%)

5.0

2.7

5.7

7.0

11.7

8.6

12.9

15.5

2.5

5.3

8.2

2.9

1.1

2.8 2.41.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E

IIP Growth(%)

Average IIP: 5.6%

Average IIP: 6.9%

Page 17: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Dissecting the economic recovery of FY03-08

27%

40% 39.7%

16%

31%

47.9%

26%

90%

47.3%

23%

11%

26.1%

53%

65%

45.8%

33%

60%

72.3%

43%

62%

22.0%

32%

73%

54.4%

17.6%

15.6%

52.2%

21% 21%

26.6%25%

38.7%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

Re

ven

ue

PA

T

Mca

p

PA

T

Mca

p

Auto Banking Cement ConsumerFMCG

ConsumerDurables

Engineering IT Mining &Metal

Oil & Gas Pharma Sensex

Sectoral CAGR FY03-08 (%)

Source: BSE, AAA Research

Sensex Net profit CAGR: 25.0%Sensex Returns CAGR : 38.7%

Market Cap Returns > Net Profit Growth

17

Page 18: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

BSE Auto BSE Banking BSEConsumer

Durable

BSE CapitalGoods

BSE FMCG BSEHealthcare

BSE IT BSE Metal Sensex

5.3x

6.6x

3.3x 3.2x 2.7x

8.7x

15x

7x

5.1x

Source: BSE

Sensex went up by 5.1xCyclical indices went up by 5-15x

Dissecting The Economic Recovery Of FY03-08

18

Page 19: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Focus On Stock Earnings Growth - Earnings Growth To Bounce Back

19

Source: Bloomberg , AAA Research

81 129181

250 266 291 278 280216 236 272

348450

523

718833 820 834

10241124

1183

1340135513401353

1516

1789

FY93

FY94

FY95

FY96

FY97

FY98

FY99

FY00

FY01

FY02

FY0

3

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17

FY18

E

FY19

E

FY93-96EPS CAGR 45%

FY96-03: EPS CAGR 1%

FY03-08 EPSCAGR 25%

FY08-16 EPSCAGR 6.1%

FY17-19E EPSCAGR 15.0%

Sensex CAGR -1.4%

Sensex CAGR 38.7%

Sensex CAGR 6.2%

SensexCAGR

??

Sensex CAGR 13.9%

After reporitng single digit earnings growth (FY08-16), Sensex is expected to report healthy double digit growth (FY17-19E)

Page 20: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Earnings growth critical for returns

20

Source: AAA Research

BSE500 universe ex PSU Banking and Loss making companies

3 years 5 years 10 years

Net ProfitCAGR (%)

(Mar-17/Mar-14) (Mar-17/Mar-12) (Mar-17/Mar-07)

No of CompaniesMarket Cap

CAGR (%)No of Companies

Market Cap CAGR (%)

No of CompaniesMarket Cap

CAGR (%)

80% + 11 35.6% 7 32.1%

50-80% 25 55.6% 13 36.6% 10 57.5%

30-50% 43 39.1% 40 38.6% 40 33.0%

20-30% 49 38.1% 57 25.6% 71 21.3%

15-20% 40 28.9% 35 22.1% 60 17.4%

10-15% 41 13.5% 37 15.9% 65 13.6%

5-10% 31 13.2% 50 15.3% 49 12.6%

0-5% 40 13.0% 33 11.6% 31 3.8%

0-(-20)% 67 5.8% 84 3.4% 45 1.2%

Total 347 356 371

NIFTY 11.00% 11.60% 9.20%

SENSEX 9.80% 11.30% 8.50%

No of companies 15%+ CAGR Net Profit

168 152 181

Page 21: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Big Events during last three years

21

China Slowdown – Fall in commodity prices

China – Yuan Devaluation

BrExit – Europe Slowdown

US election – Donald Trump elected against prediction

Demonetization Impact

Uncertainty in the short term creates opportunity in the long term

Page 22: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Market Valuations

22

Sensex @32515 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E

EPS (Rs) 821 826 1,013 1,123 1,185 1,340 1,355 1,340 1,353 1,516 1,789

EPS G(%) -1% 1% 23% 10% 6% 13% 1.1% -1.1% 1.0% 12.0% 18.0%

BV (Rs) 4,441 5,101 5,944 6,842 7,790 8,862 9,540 10,143 10,684 11,290 12,006

P/E(x) 29.0 27.4 24.3 23.4 23.7 23.4 20.9 17.7

P/BV(x) 4.8 4.2 3.7 3.3 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.6

ROE(%) 18.5% 16.2% 17.0% 16.4% 15.2% 15.1% 14.2% 13.2% 12.7% 13.4% 14.9%Source: Bloomberg, AAA Research

Source: AAA ResearchSource: AAA Research

7

12

17

22

27

Au

g-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Au

g-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Au

g-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Au

g-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Au

g-1

5

Au

g-1

6

Au

g-1

7

P/E Fwd (x)

P/E Fwd(x)

1.3

1.8

2.3

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.3

4.8

5.3

Au

g-0

7

Au

g-0

8

Au

g-0

9

Au

g-1

0

Au

g-1

1

Au

g-1

2

Au

g-1

3

Au

g-1

4

Au

g-1

5

Au

g-1

6

Au

g-1

7

P/B Fwd (x)

P/B Fwd(x)

Mean 17.4x

Mean 2.7x

Page 23: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

The people running the show at AlfAccurate Advisors

23

Page 24: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

The AlfAccurate Advisors Team

24

Rajesh Kothari Govind Agrawal

Founder and Managing Director Director

Bhushan Koli

Head Operations and Compliance

Bhushan Koli

Page 25: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Award Winning Investment Team

Mr. Rajesh Kothari – Managing Director (Grad CWA, MBA)

➢ Rich experience of more than 22 years in Indian capital market

➢ Expertise in both Long Only & Long Short investment strategy

➢ Former Director with Voyager Investment Advisors (US$500m) – USA based India dedicated

fund for two and half years

▪ During his tenure, fund Outperformed the benchmark indices significantly

➢ Former Fund Manager with DSP Merrill Lynch (now DSP Blackrock) Fund Managers Ltd for

more than four years

▪ During his tenure equity assets under management grew from USD100m to USD1.5bn

▪ The schemes delivered annualized return of 55% (Equity Fund) & 62% (Top100 Fund) outperforming

benchmark indices by more than 20% & 10% respectively

▪ The equity schemes maintained its “1st Quartile Ranking” consistently during his tenure

25

Page 26: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Achievements:

➢ Received CMA Young Achiever Award 2014

➢ Rated as “Platinum Fund Manager” by Economic Times for DSP ML Equity Fund on a risk-adjusted return

basis in July 2006

➢ Rated as “Gold Fund Manager” by Economic Times for DSP ML Balanced Fund on a risk-adjusted return

basis in July 2006

➢ CNBC TV18 - CRISIL Mutual Fund of the Year Award 2006 for DSPML Equity Fund

➢ Lipper India Fund Awards 2006 for best equity fund group for 3 years

➢ DSPML Technology.com Fund - best fund in the equity sector in the IT category (5 years, 8 eligible schemes)

➢ He was invited at Maharashtra Economic Summit to present views on Indian Infrastructure

(http: //maharashtrasummit.mieda.in/Program.aspx)

➢ Invited by Institute of Directors to present views on Governance Deficit

➢ Invited by World Council for Corporate Governance to present views on Governance

➢ Elected on the advisory panel of World CSR forum.

➢ Actively involved with Arham Yuva Group - a philanthropic initiative

Award Winning Investment Team

26

Page 27: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Glimpses Of Superior Performance To Benchmark Index

27Note: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future

Consistent Superior returns to Benchmark Index

*(FY10 is from 23 Nov 2009 - 31 Mar 2010)#(01 Apr 2017 – 31 August 2017)

-6.0

133.0

38.9

84.7

5.8 6.018.2 9.7 11.7

29.0

71.9

2.8

28.216.1

-11

85

17

70.5

-7.9

3.9 8.4

-9.1

4.817.1

33.2

-7.8

24.08.9

-50

0

50

100

150

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 Jun06-08 FY10* FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 YTD#

DSP MerillLynch MF Voyager AlfAccurate Advisors

Funds Managed by Rajesh Benchmark Index

0200400600800

10001200140016001800200022002400260028003000

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 Jun06-Dec08

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18YTD#

Funds managed by Rajesh(%) BSE 500 Index(%)

27.2% CAGR

13.8% CAGR

Rs 10,000 invested in Mar02 is worth presently Rs 3,09,760

Page 28: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Mr. Govind Agrawal – Director (FCA – Chartered Accountant, LLB)

➢ Rich experience of 28 years in finance out of which last 22 years in Indian capital market

➢ Former Fund Manager with Reliance Capital Asset Management Company (USD 20bn) for over

four years.

▪ Reliance Emergent India Fund (USD 100m offshore fund) outperformed benchmark indices by 35% since

its inception.

▪ Travelled intensely across globe to meet the investors and presented the firm for India and Emerging

Market as Investment Theme

▪ Played instrumental role in setting up Macro Economic Research desk

➢ Former Executive Director with UBS Securities India Pvt Ltd, a Swiss Bank subsidiary, for 4 years

▪ Responsible for India Account Manager for large FIIs

▪ Guided the portfolio managers for right country, sectors and stocks weightings

Award Winning Investment Team

28

Page 29: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

➢ Former Senior VP – Equity Sales with Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd for 10 years

▪ Played key role in establishing institutional equity broking business, systems and processes

▪ Was account manager for major institutional domestic and foreign accounts advising the clients on sectoral allocation

and stock selection

Achievements

➢ Represented Reliance AMC on international platforms and panel discussion on Emerging Markets and Indian

Equity Market

➢ Addressed investors’ meet and the private banking teams of large banks in Middle East, Asia, London,

Europe and in India

➢ At UBS, was voted as the “Best Equity Sales Person‐Mega Funds category, Asia Money 2006”

➢ Won several awards at Motilal Oswal for consistently contributing to Institutional Equity Sales

29

Award Winning Investment Team

Page 30: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

The AlfAccurate Advisors philosophy

30

Page 31: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

AlfAccurate Advisors

To be the world’s most admired investment advisor

We are specialists in Indian capital markets with combined experience of 70+ years

Protect Capital , Create Wealth

31

Page 32: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Our Guiding Principles

Ambition

Entrepreneurship

Accountability

Passion

Excellence

Commitment

Teamwork

Integrity

Meritocracy

32

Page 33: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Investment Philosophy...

33

Fundamental Research core ofour investment management

Long Term Horizon

Constant endeavor to be ahead of the Market

Emphasis on value research Vs commodity research

Benchmark aware but not driven

Flexible investment style

Focus on margin safety

Page 34: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Combined With Investment Discipline...

Parameter Rules Current Position

Cap Exposure At least 50% in Mega & large cap (More than USD1bn) 54.0% invested in Mega & Large cap

Sector Weightage Not more than 30% in one sector Maximum exposure in a given sector is 20.6%

Stock WeightageNot more than 10% in a given stock and not more than 50% in the top 10 Stocks

Maximum Exposure in a given stock is 3.9%. Top 10 stocks as percentage of portfolio is 28.6%

Number of Stocks Minimum 30 Stocks 53 stocks

Stock Universe 450 Corporates 450 Corporates

Number of Stocks: 53Number of Sectors: 16Top 10 Stocks as % of portfolio: 28.6%Data as on 31 Aug 2017 34

39%

15%

29%

13%

3%

Portfolio Allocation

Mega Large Mid Small Cash

Sector Allocation

Agri Input Auto Auto Ancillary BankingCement Chemicals Consumer EngineeringOil & Gas Others Pharma PowerReal Estate Retail Software TextilesCash & Cash Equivalent

Page 35: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Leading To Superior Performance

Performance (%)FY18YTD#

FY17 FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 Since Inception*

AAA India Opp. Plan 16.1 28.2 2.5 71.7 29.0 11.2 9.6 18.6 415.4

BSE 500 Index 8.9 24.0 (7.8) 33.2 17.1 4.8 (9.1) 7.5 106.7

BSE Sensex 7.1 16.9 (9.4) 24.9 18.8 8.2 (10.5) 10.9 84.7

CNX Nifty 8.1 18.5 (8.9) 26.7 17.9 7.3 (9.2) 11.1 94.3

*(23 Nov 2009 – 31 August 2017)(Management fees adjusted); #(01 April 2017 – 31 August 2017)

AAA India Opp. plan consistently not only outperformed but also generated Positive return in volatile markets

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

35

18.69.6 11.2

29.0

71.7

2.5

28.216.1

7.5

-9.1

4.817.1

33.2

-7.8

24.08.9

-20

0

20

40

60

80

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18YTD#

AAA India Opportunity Plan - Equity Vs BSE 500 Index (%)

AAA India Opportunity Plan - Equity BSE 500 Index

Page 36: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Leading To Superior Performance

36

Page 37: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Leading To Superior Performance

37

AAA India Opp Plan ranks # 1 compared with 141 diversified funds of each reputed fund house

Average Monthly Rolling Returns Since Inception(%)

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

Compounded Annual Returns (%)

1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3 YEARS 5 YEARS Since Inception*

AAA India Opp. Plan 23.0 19.3 24.8 29.4 23.6

BSE 500 Index 16.3 14.3 10.9 15.7 9.8

BSE Sensex 11.5 9.9 6.0 12.7 8.2

CNX Nifty 12.9 11.5 7.6 13.5 9.0

*(23 Nov 2009 – 31 Aug 2017 )(Management fees adjusted)

*Since Inception (23 Nov 2009 – 31 Aug 2017 )(Management fees adjusted)

Performance Vs leading Mutual Funds Since Inception(%)

Source: Bloomberg

415.4

265.7

183.9141.8

88.2 106.7 84.7 94.3

AAA IndiaOpp.Plan*

Quartile 1 Quartile 2 Quartile 3 Quartile 4 BSE 500Index

BSESensex

S&P CNXNifty

24.426.2 25.7

10.1 10.7 10.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 Year 3 year 5 Year

AAA India Opp. Plan BSE 500 Index

Page 38: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

38

Risk Analysis : AAA IOP PMS Performance Compared To Benchmark

Parameters How to read ratioAAA IOP

PMSBSE500 Index

AAA IOP PMS performance

BetaLess than 1 beta is good sign as it denotes lower volatility of the

portfolio0.85 1.0

Beta of 0.85 shows AAA PMS has lesser volatility compared to BSE500 Index

Sharpe Ratio Excess return per unit of

deviation. Higher the Sharpe ratio, better it is.

1.2 0.2Top Performing Midcap MFs have Sharpe Ratio 0.75+. AAA IOP PMS Sharpe ratio is

one of the best in the industry.

Standard DeviationStandard deviation denotes

amount of variation14.2 15.0

AAA IOP SD is less than Benchmark as well as peer group which shows portfolio has

lower risk

Upside capture It denotes overall performance

of PMS during up markets. 168.6 100.0

Upside capture ratio of more than 100 indicates that fund has outperformed Benchmark during positive markets.

Downside captureIt denotes overall performance of PMS during down markets.

79.8 100.0Ratio of less than 100 indicates, fund has

outperformed Benchmark during negative markets.

Capture Ratio

Capture ratio >1 indicates, Investment Manager has gained

more during up (positive) markets and lost less during

down (negative) markets.

2.11 1AAA PMS 2.11 capture ratio is healthy as

it protected capital during negative markets and building wealth consistently.

Data is analysed since inception of AAA IOP PMS data i.e. 23 Nov 2009 - 31 Aug 2017

Page 39: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

AAA IOP PMS Rolling Return Analysis

39

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

Since Inception (23 Nov 2009 – 31 Aug 2017) (Management fees adjusted)

Monthly Rolling Returns Analysis(%)

AAA IOP 1 Year

BSE500 Index 1 Year

AAA IOP3 Years

BSE500Index 3 Years

AAA IOP 5 Years

BSE500 Index 5 years

No of obervations 83.0 83.0 59.00 59.00 35.00 35.00

No of Positive Observations 77.0 62.0 59.00 53.00 35.00 35.00

No of Negative Observations 6.0 21.0 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00

Loss Probability (%) 7.2% 25.3% 0.0% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Average Returns (%) 24.4% 10.1% 26.2% 10.7% 25.7% 10.4%

Median Returns (%) 18.4% 7.2% 29.5% 12.2% 25.4% 10.2%

Maximum Returns (%) 88.8% 51.3% 41.0% 22.9% 30.6% 16.0%

Minimum Returns (%) -13.8% -27.4% 6.2% -4.2% 21.9% 5.6%

➢ AAA has delivered average returns of 24.4%, 26.2% and 25.7% for 1 year, 3 years and 5 years respectively on monthly rolling return basis

➢ Negative returns for 3 years and 5 years rolling periods are 0

Page 40: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Note: Equity return scenarios are assumed expected returns.

The Power Of Compounding – A Scenario Analysis

40

Scenarios based on investment of Rs 5 Crores

The real power of compounding is seen only over the long term

12% CAGR 15% CAGR 20% CAGR

30Yrs

150 Cr

9 Cr

20Yrs5Yrs 10Yrs

16 Cr

48Cr

331 Cr

20 Cr

5Yrs

82 Cr

20Yrs 30Yrs10Yrs

10 Cr

10Yrs 30Yrs

717 Cr

20Yrs

137 Cr

26 Cr

5Yrs

11 Cr

30Yrs20Yrs

1,187 Cr

5Yrs

31 Cr

192 Cr

10Yrs

12 Cr

18% CAGR

Page 41: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Why We Should Be Your Choice Of Investment Advisory

41

Strong domain knowledge in Indian Capital markets

Expertise in both – Long Only and Long Short Investment Strategy

Sound Research capabilities

Award winning investment team and track record Process driven organization

Adequate infrastructure to support scalability

Integrity and ethics as the core of the business

Access to Founders – founders are fund managers

Staggered investment approach

Client centric business model

No conflict of interest

Page 42: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Product Features

42

Name of plan AAA India Opportunity Equity PMS Plan

Objective Long Term Capital Appreciation

Investment ThemeTo invest in listed companies with combination of high growth stocks as well as value stocks

Principal Officer Rajesh Kothari

Director Govind Agrawal

Custodians Deutsche Bank, India

Fund Accountant Deutsche Bank, India

Depository Participant IL&FS, India

Mode of payment Fund transfer/cheque/stock transfer

Page 43: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

Awards and Recognitions

43

Dr. Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of State (I/C), Prime Minister Office, giving Certificate of Merit – CMA Young Achiever Award – 2014

Lipper Fund Award – India 2007

Page 44: Capital t e Wealth · HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 670 1784 HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 1777 ... • Presentation to investment committee seeking recommendation and approval ... since the Q3CY15, as

44

Thank You Rajesh KothariT: +91 22 42360301M:+91 98200 [email protected]

Govind AgrawalT: +91 22 42360 311M: +91 93208 [email protected]

AlfAccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd503, B Wing, Naman Midtown,Elphinstone Road, Mumbai - 400 013, IndiaT: +91 22 42360300; F: +91 22 42360333 [email protected]

Disclaimer: Equity Investments are subject to market risks , read all plan related documents carefully. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely foryour information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient. The material is based uponpublicly available information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon. Opinions expressed are our currentopinions as of the date appearing on this material only. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject tochange without notice. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without AlfAccurate AdvisorsPvt Ltd.'s prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot beguaranteed. Alfaccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd and any person connected with the firm, does not accept any liability arising from the use of this document.

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