Car CO2 emissions reduction strategies for China Paul Nieuwenhuis & Clovis Zapata ESRC BRASS Centre, Cardiff University

Car CO2 emissions reduction strategies for China

Paul Nieuwenhuis & Clovis Zapata

ESRC BRASS Centre,

Cardiff University

Nieuwenhuis & Zapata BRASS 2006

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New Markets (000s of new vehicles)

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1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2001 2002 2003 2004

IndiaIndonesiaPR ChinaRussiaBrazilI ran


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CO2 in our atmosphere (800-2000)


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CO2

Global warming

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Kyoto Protocol

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EU Commitment

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EU: ACEA-EC agreement:

,SO…


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EU Car sector response

• Voluntary reductions from 1995-2004 by a number of manufacturers, incl. Volvo

• ACEA-EC agreement:– intro of ‘3 litre’ cars (<100g/km) by 2000

– 2008: average 140g/km

– 2012: average 120g/km (proposed)

• Also followed by JAMA (Japan), KAMA (Korea)

(1995 EU fleet average: 170g/km)


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How do you reduce CO2?

• Improve fuel consumption - increase powertrain efficiency; reduce weight

• use non-carbon or lower-carbon alternative fuels (e.g. H2; CNG, LPG)

• use carbon-neutral fuels (e.g.ethanol, biodiesel)

• reduce total miles driven


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CO2 Winners

140g cars:– Fiat Panda (all)

– Fiat Punto 1.2 8v

– Ford Focus 1.8 TDCi 98

– Merc A Class 170CDI

– MINI One 1.4D

– Peugeot 307 2.0 Hdi

– Renault Scenic 1.5dCI

– Vauxh Corsa 1.0 & diesel

– VW Polo 1.9SDi & 1.4TDiPD

120g cars:– Audi A21.4TDi– Citroen C2/C3 Hdi– Honda Civic IMA– Peugeot 206 1.4HDi– Renault Megane 1.5dCI– Smart ForTwo Coupe(all)– Toyota Prius– VW Lupo 1.7SDi &

1.4TDiPD


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Average new car CO2 emissions(2005)

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155

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170

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EU UK PRC

CO2 G/KM


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UK

• CO2-based road tax regime

• CO2-based company car taxation system

• Incentives for alternative fuel vehicles

• Fuel price escalator (dropped 2000)


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UK Segmentation change 1994-2003

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60

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120

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

mpv

4x4

sports

luxury

executive

uppermedium

lowermedium

supermini

mini


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UK new car CO2 emissions 1997-2005 + China 2005 (source:

SMMT, BRASS)

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50

100

150

200

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

2012 limit

PRC

2012 limit

2008 limit

CO2 g/km

PRC


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China: Forecast car growth 2005-2030(source: BRASS)


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China – suggested policy/technology options (Zhengzheng 2006)

• Encourage small cars• Encourage diesel cars• Encourage alternative fuels and powertrain

New incentives:– Reduction of consumption tax on small cars (< 1000cc) from 3% to 1%

– Increase in consumption tax for large vehicles (> 3000cc) from 8% to 14%-20%

– Reduced parking charges for small cars

– Lift all restrictions on use of small cars (e.g. Guangzhou)


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Minicars

• Japanese ‘kei’ cars:– 3.4mx1.48mx2m– max 660cc

• Korean minicars (800cc)

• European small car tradition– Encouraged by taxation

regimes– Including sub-cars


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Diesel Cars

• 25% - 30% lower CO2 emissions than petrol for same engine size

• However higher carbon content per litre• Diesel is lean-burn hence produces higher NOx

emissions than modern petrol• Also higher PM emissions – carcinogenic

Most of the EU reduction in vehicle CO2 emissions

has been achieved by a shift from petrol to diesel


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Diesel cars (in red)

140g cars:– Fiat Panda (all)– Fiat Punto 1.2 8v– Ford Focus 1.8 TDCi 98– Merc A Class 170CDI– MINI One 1.4D– Peugeot 307 2.0 Hdi– Renault Scenic 1.5dCI– Vauxh Corsa 1.0 & diesel– VW Polo 1.9SDi & 1.4TDiPD

120g cars:– Audi A21.4TDi

– Citroen C2/C3 Hdi

– Honda Civic IMA

– Peugeot 206 1.4HDi

– Renault Megane 1.5dCI

– Smart ForTwo Coupe(all)

– Toyota Prius

– VW Lupo 1.7SDi & 1.4TDiPD


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Alternative Fuels/Powertrain

Alternative fuels– Can be used in existing IC

engines with no or minor modification

– Low impact on car makers– Potentially carbon neutral– E.g.: CNG, LNG, LPG,

biodiesel, bioethanol

Alternative Powertrain– Alternatives to IC– High impact on car makers– E.g.: fuel cells, hybrid-electric?


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Alternatives for China?

• China needs crops to feed its people, not its cars

• China could only make H2 from coal (some hydro, a bit of oil); which would need carbon sequestration

So these do not solve its immediate problems


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…or hybrid IC-electric: e.g. Toyota Prius now made in China


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China: CO2 reduction scenarios


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Conclusion

• Although all technologies considered improve on the baseline

• Hybrid-electric has the greatest impact

• …or possibly a diesel-electric hybrid powertrain fitted to a minicar!

Documents

Car CO2 emissions reduction strategies for China Paul Nieuwenhuis & Clovis Zapata ESRC BRASS Centre, Cardiff University