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Carbon Expo
Barcelona
May 2013
$0
$60
$120
$180
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Other project-based
Other allowances
Secondary CER
Primary CER post-2012
Primary CER pre-2013
EU Allowances
Steady increase of global market value
135
176
11
31
63
(in Billion US$)
144
159
0.3 0.3
EU and other markets increasing value
EU ETS Allowances
147.8 JI AAU
pre-2013 CDM
1.0
-32% +11%
Secondary CDM + JI
23.1
(in Billion US$)
N. America
0.5
-18%
New Zealand
0.4
+249%
-36% -49%
post-2012 CDM
2.0
+63%
+12%
Historic low EUA and CER prices responding to macro-economic fundamentals
€ 0.00
€ 5.00
€ 10.00
€ 15.00
€ 20.00
€ 25.00
€ 30.00 Daily prices (€)
EUA
Secondary CER
Primary CER
Primary CER post-2012
2-y of relatively low volatility and stable prices
CERs & EUAs decouple ETS rescue plan vs.
CERs & ERUs issuance
Peak of demand in "sellers market"
2008-09 financial crisis and economic downturn
EU debt crisis & oversupply in KP and EU ETS post-2012
Contraction of the CDM market
Pre-2013 market values (US$ million)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Pre-2013 CER
Supply of international credits outstrips demand
* EU-27, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland
** Only covers supply of Kyoto credits
3.3 Gt in 2012 … 1.9 Gt early ‘13 …
1.5 Gt today … ???
Carbon initiatives are developing faster than ever
New schemes with growing GHG coverage
Carbon tax implemented or scheduled for implementation
ETS implemented or scheduled for implementation
ETS and carbon tax
ETS under consideration
Considering similar approaches: over 60 jurisdictions emitting 24 GtCO2e/y (half of global emissions)
Over 20% of global emitters with carbon pricing initiatives implemented or scheduled
Carbon Expo
Barcelona
May 2013
Thank you!!
Alexandre Kossoy www.carbonfinance.org
http://www.carbonfinance.org/mailto:[email protected]
One size does not fit all
Price stabilisation?
No
Upper price
Upper and lower price
No
Upper price
Upper price
Upper and lower price
Fixed price
No explicit