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Carbon Sequestration: Magnitude, Measurement, and Potential to Mitigate Climate Change. Ken Cassman, Director, Nebraska Center for Energy Sciences Research Shashi Verma, School of Natural Resources. http://www.epa.gov/methanetomarkets/docs/methanemarkets-factsheet.pdf. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Carbon Sequestration: Magnitude, Measurement, and Potential to Mitigate Climate ChangeKen Cassman, Director, Nebraska Center for Energy Sciences ResearchShashi Verma, School of Natural Resources
The Greenhouse Effect
Solar radiation may be reflected (2/3) or absorbed (1/3)
Absorbed radiation heats the earth
Infrared radiation is emitted from the earths surface
Greenhouse Gases:Water vaporCarbon dioxideMethaneNitrous oxideOzoneChlorofluorocarbonsFluoronated hydrocarbons
Source: EPA, 2000
Slide courtesy of T.S. Murrell, PPI
http://www.epa.gov/methanetomarkets/docs/methanemarkets-factsheet.pdf
0 200 400 600 800Potential Annual Carbon Sequestration (Tg) in USA Crop, Forest, and range lands. Adapted from Metting FB, Smith JL, Amthor JS. 1998.
UNL Carbon Sequestration Program: GoalsQuantify the annual amounts of carbon (C) sequestered in major rainfed and irrigated agroecosystems in the north-central USA.Improve our basic understanding of the biophysical processes that govern C exchange in these ecosystems.
University of Nebraska Ecological Intensification ProjectWhat is the potential for maximizing yield, carbon sequestration, greenhouse gas mitigation, and nutrient use efficiency concomitantly with progressive management that achieves high yields and high input efficiencies?N fertigation and precise N and water management, Bt hybrids, Round-up Ready soybeans, higher plant densities, no tillage
Annually Integrated NEE(g C m-2 y-1)
Maize, NE300 to 500 (Verma et al., 2005)Harvard Forest, MA200 (Barford et al., 2003)Howland Forest, ME174 (Hollinger et al., 2004)Univ. of Michigan Biological St80 to 170 (Schmid et al., 2003)Wind River, WA-50 to 200 (Pers. Comm.)Douglas Fir, B.C.270 to 420 (Morgenstern et al., 2004)Tallgrass Prairie, OK50 to 275 (Suyker et al., 2003)Northern Temperate Grassland, Alberta-18 to 20 (Flanagan et al., 2002)Mediterranean, Annual Grassland, CA-30 to 130 (Xu and Baldocchi, 2003)Soybean, NE-10 to -75 (Verma et al., 2005)
Co-Principal Investigators
Shashi B. Verma. . . . . . . . . . . . . . School of Natural Resources Kenneth G. Cassman. . . . . . . . . . .Agronomy and Horticulture
Co-Investigators
Timothy J. Arkebauer. . . . . . . . . . .Agronomy and HorticultureAchim Dobermann. . . . . . . . . . . . .Agronomy and Horticulture Anatoly A. Gitelson . . . . . . . . . . .School of Natural ResourcesKenneth G. Hubbard . . . . . . . . . . School of Natural ResourcesJohannes M. Knops. . . . . . . . . . .School or Biological SciencesGary D. Lynne. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agricultural EconomicsMadhavan Soundararajan. . . . . . .BiochemistryAndrew E. Suyker . . . . . . . . . . . . . School of Natural ResourcesElizabeth A. Walter-Shea . . . . . . . School of Natural ResourcesDaniel T. Walters . . . . . . . . . . . . . Agronomy and HorticultureHaishun Yang. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Agronomy and HorticultureCarbon Sequestration Program
Carbon Sequestration Program Field SitesSite 1 Irrigatedcontinuous maizeSite 2 Irrigatedmaize soybeanSite 3 Rainfedmaize soybeanIrrigated C-C Irrigated C-SDryland C-S
Research ComponentsTower eddy covariance fluxes of CO2, water vapor and energy: Verma, SuykerMonitoring and mapping soil C stocks: Dobermann, WaltersLitter decomposition: KnopsAbove biomass and leaf area index: ArkebauerLeaf gas exchange: ArkebauerSoil surface fluxes of CO2, N2O and CH4: ArkebauerBelowground processes: WaltersMonitoring soil water: Hubbard, SchimelfenigEcosystem modeling: Yang, CassmanRemote sensing: Gitelson, Walter-SheaLife-cycle GHG emissions analysis for both the cropping system and when crops are used for biofuel production: Walters, Cassman, Liska
Landscape-level(Eddy Covariance)Measurement of CO2 and Other FluxesMeasuring Componentsof Solar RadiationClose-up ofEddy CovarianceFlux SensorsTower Flux StudiesVerma, Suyker, & the team
Seasonal and Interannual Variability:Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange (NEE) Mead, Nebraska
Extrapolation to Regional ScalesTower CO2 Flux vs Remotely Sensed Data Maize-Soybean, Mead, NebraskaChlorophyll Index, CIgreen = [(RNIR/Rgreen)-1], where Rgreen and RNIR are reflectances in TM Landsat bands 2 (520-600 nm) and 4 (760-900 nm), respectively. (Gitelson et al., 2005)
GPP distribution retrieved from Landsat ETM+ imagery1- Irrigated Continuous maize2- Irrigated Maize-Soybean Rotation3- Dryland Maize-Soybean Rotation123
Leaf/plot levelLandscape levelRegionalScaling ProcessRemote Sensing Studies: Gitelson et al.; Walter-Shea et al.
Biomass and Leaf Area IndexArkebauer et al.
Leaf Gas ExchangeArkebauer et al.
Soil Surface FluxesArkebauer et al.
Below Ground ProcessesWalters et al.
Monitoring Soil WaterHubbard, Schimelfenig & the team
Litter DecompositionKnops et al.
Mapping Soil Carbon StocksDobermann et al.
Site 1: Irrigated Continuous MaizeFuzzy soil classes, intensive measurement zones for scaling to the whole field
Initial soil C profiles at CSP site 3, 2001Rainfed site: soil cores representative of the six soil types within the 150 acre production field.
Average annual change in soil carbon stocks in a four-year period that included two complete rotation cycles for the corn-soybean rotation treatments: based on eddy tower CO2 flux measurements or direct measurement of changes in soil carbon content.BOTTOM LINE: no detectable C sequestration!Negative value indicates net loss of soil C.
4-year average (2001-2004)NBP: eddy co-variance towersSOC:direct measure Irrigated continuous maize-53 to -33-80 Irrigated maize-soybean-106 to -89-56 Rainfed maizesoybean-22-36
Modified Century Soil Carbon Model: overpredicts C sequestration potential of our CSP sites; we find no net sequestration, i.e. C neutral
http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/century5
Net PrimaryProductivity
Harvest Removal C
Hybrid-MaizeModel
AGLive C
BGLive C
Pioneeer HiBred Intl Presentation--Omaha
What are reasons for over-predition of soil C sequestration?Ecosystem C models calibrated to long-term field experiments that:Only evaluated soil C changes in upper foot of soil; ignored full active root zone profileDid not account for the decrease in soil bulk density that occurs when soil organic matter content increasesWhile soil C turnover model components were mechanistic, crop productivity components were empirical and not robustPoints to critical role of detailed measurements to validate ecosystem models, especially those used to inform lawmakers and guide policy
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Net Energy Yield of USA Maize-EthanolWhile there are many life-cycle analysis (LCA) studies of maize-ethanol systemsIncludes crop production, ethanol conversion, co-product processing and utilizationResults vary depending on selection of system boundaries, energy content of crop inputs, crop yields and input levels, energy use in ethanol plant
Backward-looking vs forward-looking LIFE-CYCLE ANALYSES Previous studies use aggregate data from the recent pastBut efficiencies of maize production and ethanol conversion are continually improvingMore relevant question: what is the energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation potential of current and future maize-ethanol systems?
Biofuel Energy Systems Simulator (BESS) Recently released life-cycle assessment software available at: www.bess.unl.eduUses updated input values for maize yields and production practices, energy requirements for ethanol fermentation-distillation, and co-product processing and utilizationEstimates much higher net energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation potential than previous estimates
BESS LCA Analysis: GHG Emissions Reduction (%, Mt CO2eq*) -----Corn Production System-----Based on a 378 ML/yr maize-ethanol plant: from www.bess.unl.edu
Type of ethanol plantUSA averageNE averageIowa averageAdvanced High-Yield IrrigatedCoal, dry DG26%, 197,81736%, 270,66846%, 342,35939%, 294,171natural gas, dry DG51%, 381,21361%, 454,06470%, 525,75663%, 477,567natural gas, wet DG60%, 447,46269%, 520,31379%, 592,00473%, 543,816closed-loop facility67%, 504,26977%, 577,12087%, 648,81280%, 600,623
Bottom line: Energy Efficiency and GHG MitigationCurrent state-of-the-art USA maize ethanol systems Large net energy yield, 30-75% net energy surplus, 25-90% GHG reduction when corn-ethanol replaces gasoline
NPPD Generation CO2 ProjectionsPotential C-credits from 1 billion gallons of NE ethanol production (BESS software estimate: www.bess.unl.edu)
Chart1
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119775306544467892962910927730
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121384906544467892962910927730
12034426.66666676544467892962910927730
12113806.93200226544467892962910927730
12194256.7524976544467892962910927730
12276187.29027946544467892962910927730
12120313.41932836544467892962910927730
12368758.46999066544467892962910927730
12621817.96473826544467892962910927730
12879525.59370666544467892962910927730
13141913.88111576544467892962910927730
13409014.13746146544467892962910927730
13680856.41143156544467892962910927730
13957469.44157826544467892962910927730
14238880.60778586544467892962910927730
14525115.88256936544467892962910927730
14816199.78224226544467892962910927730
15112155.3179946544467892962910927730
15413003.94691686544467892962910927730
15718765.52302236544467892962910927730
Projections
Est 1990
2000
2005
Metric Tons
NPPD Generation CO2 Projections(excluding LES)
Data
Sources:NPPD CO2 Emission Inventory 06.xls (3/29/07)Hope email to Fehr, 3/27/07
Hope email to Fehr, 3/29/07
conversion factor0.9071847
(w/o LES)metric tonsshort tons
metric tons70%92%
ProjectionsEst 199020002005Total w/o LESTotalSheldonGGSCanadayBPSHallamHebronMcCook
historical19906,544,46765444678,929,62910,927,73000
19916,544,4678,929,62910,927,73000
19926,544,4678,929,62910,927,73000
19936,544,4678,929,62910,927,73000
19946,544,4678,929,62910,927,73000
19956,544,4678,929,62910,927,73000
19966,544,4678,929,62910,927,73000
19979,458,1126,544,4678,929,62910,927,7309,458,11211,758,3111,781,1919,977,120
19989,336,6476,544,4678,929,62910,927,7309,336,64711,586,9301,728,7359,705,220152,975
19998,989,1986,544,4678,929,62910,927,7308,989,19811,161,1261,658,9569,431,80070,370
20008,929,6296,544,4678,929,62910,927,7308,916,67911,082,1821,734,1149,162,390185,678
200110,678,5676,544,4678,929,62910,927,73010,678,56713,216,0971,811,52511,269,170135,402
200210,818,4126,544,4678,929,62910,927,73010,818,41213,415,9501,925,12911,414,41076,411
200310,915,7836,544,4678,929,62910,927,73010,915,78313,499,7441,783,62411,650,82065,300
200410,475,2776,544,4678,929,62910,927,73010,475,27712,997,9001,873,60911,110,00014,291
200510,927,7306,544,4678,929,62910,927,73010,914,69113,556,7272,071,70811,297,84031,207155,972
200610,706,7506,544,4678,929,62910,927,73010,702,59913,261,7921,895,75411,193,37028,558144,110
projected200710,897,7606,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
200811,057,9806,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
200911,623,9606,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
201011,977,5306,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
201111,987,2606,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
201212,138,4906,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
201312,034,4276,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
201412,113,8076,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
201512,194,2576,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
201612,276,1876,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
201712,120,3136,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
201812,368,7586,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
201912,621,8186,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
202012,879,5266,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
202113,141,9146,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
202213,409,0146,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
202313,680,8566,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
202413,957,4696,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
202514,238,8816,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
202614,525,1166,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
202714,816,2006,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
202815,112,1556,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
202915,413,0046,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
203015,718,7666,544,4678,929,62910,927,730
Projections
ED 2007.02 (3/29/07)
Starting in 2014
Native Load per Feb-2007 Forecast (3/29/2007)
Total Gen & Purch = average of 2010-12
Part Sale - LES only except 4 months of MEAN in 2014 & 18 days of Aquila in 2014
NF Sale - Always keep a min of1,200,000MWh/yr in 2014, reducing by 1%/yr
Assume the following CO2 emission rates for add'l gen or purch
10.50mt/MWh
metric tonsGGSSheldonTotal Gen & PurchPart SaleCap SaleNF SaleNative LoadAdd'l Gen & PurchCoal BasedGas Fired CCEmission Free Gen or Purch
20109,509,4571,441,23621,584,2203,121,136795,3781,831,77315,835,9330
20119,393,1911,444,45121,464,0622,604,941481,6391,854,96116,522,5210
20129,404,0871,421,41621,693,4732,334,664380,0411,891,23817,087,5300
201312,034,4279,295,9551,437,24922,000,4322,408,779396,6861,686,82817,508,139040%30%30%
201412,113,8079,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,430,5622,353,22817,941,122144,32840%30%30%
201512,194,2579,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1622,201,08318,379,939290,60040%30%30%
201612,276,1879,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,903,15418,826,833439,56540%30%30%
201712,120,3139,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,164,70819,281,872156,15840%30%30%
201812,368,7589,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,153,17619,745,122607,87640%30%30%
201912,621,8189,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,141,75920,216,6481,067,98440%30%30%
202012,879,5269,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,130,45420,696,5121,536,54440%30%30%
202113,141,9149,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,119,26221,184,7742,013,61340%30%30%
202213,409,0149,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,108,18021,681,4932,499,25040%30%30%
202313,680,8569,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,097,20822,186,7232,993,50940%30%30%
202413,957,4699,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,086,34422,700,5203,496,44140%30%30%
202514,238,8819,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,075,58823,222,9324,008,09840%30%30%
202614,525,1169,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,064,93923,754,0094,528,52640%30%30%
202714,816,2009,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,054,39524,293,7975,057,76940%30%30%
202815,112,1559,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,043,95624,842,3375,595,87040%30%30%
202915,413,0049,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,033,61925,399,6716,142,86840%30%30%
203015,718,7669,435,5781,435,70121,580,5851,290,1621,023,38625,965,8356,698,79840%30%30%
40%30%30%
Sheet3
Annually Integrated NEE(g C m-2 y-1)
Maize, NE300 to 500 (Verma et al., 2005)Harvard Forest, MA200 (Barford et al., 2003)Howland Forest, ME174 (Hollinger et al., 2004)Univ. of Michigan Biological St80 to 170 (Schmid et al., 2003)Wind River, WA-50 to 200 (Pers. Comm.)Douglas Fir, B.C.270 to 420 (Morgenstern et al., 2004)Tallgrass Prairie, OK50 to 275 (Suyker et al., 2003)Northern Temperate Grassland, Alberta-18 to 20 (Flanagan et al., 2002)Mediterranean, Annual Grassland, CA-30 to 130 (Xu and Baldocchi, 2003)Soybean, NE-10 to -75 (Verma et al., 2005)
Contribution of other biomes to GHG emissions or mitigation, and impact on water quality?CRP land and parksPrairie grass biofuel systemsNutrient storage and fluxesBiological diversity