Carteret County Public Schools2015-16 IPSAC Land Use Study

OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORYI N ST I T U TE FO R T R A N S P O RTATI O N R ES EA RC H A N D E D U C AT I ON

C E N T E N N I AL C A M P U S @ N O R T H C A R O L I N A STAT E U N I V ERS I TY

A P R I L 5 , 2 0 1 6

2015-16 IPSAC Land Use Study

Integrated Planning for School and Community (IPSAC)

A data-focused membership and utilization forecast for Carteret County Public Schools. Membership Forecasting Land Use Studies Out-of-Capacity Analysis School Site Optimization Attendance Boundary Optimization

About ITRE and OREd

The Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRE) is an inter-institutional research center serves all 16 statewide University of North Carolina systems and partners.

ITRE conducts surface, water, and air transportation research, while providing professional training and technical assistance.

The Operations Research and Education Laboratory (OREd) assists K-12 school systems by providing decision management tools for issues pertaining to student assignment and long-range school planning.

OREd uses GIS analysis, mathematical modeling, and decision science applications to guide school districts to planning solutions that are driven by data and supported by district policy.

• Alamance-Burlington School System – 02, 03, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13

• Asheboro City Schools – 04, 05, 06, 07• Berkeley County Schools (SC) – 09, 10, 11, 12• Bladen County Schools – 04• Buncombe County Schools – 98, 99• Brunswick County Schools – 03, 04• Cabarrus County Schools – 12, 14• Carteret County Public Schools – 09, 15• Chapel Hill-Carrboro Schools – 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 05,

06, 07, 12• Chatham County Schools – 03, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13,

15• Craven County Schools – 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07,

08, 12, 14• Cumberland County Schools – 08, 09• Cleveland County Schools – 08• Currituck County Schools – 09, 10• Duplin County Schools – 08, 09• Durham Public Schools – 08, 09, 10, 11, 12• Edgecombe County Public Schools – 09 • Elizabeth City-Pasquotank County Schools – 07• Florence County School District 1 (SC) - 15 • Franklin County Schools – 08, 11, 12• Gaston County Schools – 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04• Granville County Schools – 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10• Guilford County Schools – 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 09, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15• Harnett County Schools – 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10,

11, 12, 13, 14, 15• Haywood County Schools – 99• Hoke County Schools – 99, 08, 09, 11, 12• Iredell-Statesville Schools – 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04• Johnston County Schools – 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01, 02, 03,

04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15• Jones County Schools – 08

• Lee County Schools – 08, 09• Lenoir County School – 09• Moore County Schools – 04, 06, 07, 08, 12, 13, 14, 15• Mooresville Graded Schools – 99, 00, 01, 04• Nash-Rocky Mount Schools – 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12• New Hanover County Schools – 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00• Onslow County Schools – 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13,

14, 15• Orange County Schools – 95, 09, 10, 11, 13• Pamlico County Schools – 09• Pender County Schools – 13 , 14, 15• Randolph County Schools – 05, 06, 07, 08, 09• Richmond County Schools – 00, 08• Robeson County Schools – 08• Rock Hill Schools (SC) – 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13,

15• Rowan County Schools – 09, 14, 15• Pitt County Schools – 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 95, 96, 97, 98, 99, 00, 01,

02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 11, 12, 13• Stafford County Public Schools (VA) – 12, 14, 15 • Stanly County Schools – 12• Stokes County Schools – 05, 06, 08• Transylvania County Schools – 14 • Tupelo Public Schools (MS) – 07• Union County Schools – 99, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 07• Vance County Schools – 09• Wayne County Schools – 95• Wake County Public School System – 97, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10,

11, 12, 13, 14, 15• Winston-Salem/Forsyth County Schools – 14, 15

OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORYI N ST I T U TE FO R T R A N S P O RTATI O N R ES EA R C H A N D E D U C AT I ON

2015-16 IPSAC Land Use Study

Community Interviews

GIS Analysis

Data and Trends Membership Forecast

Out-of-Capacity Table

Community Interviews Met with Carteret County and Municipal stakeholders in

Interviews between January 19 and January 21, 2016 Interview Roster:

Carteret County; Morehead City and the towns of Atlantic Beach, Beaufort, Bogue, Cape Carteret, Cedar Point, Emerald Isle, Indian Beach, Newport, Peletier and Pine Knoll Shores; Carteret County Chamber of Commerce; Carteret County Economic Development Council; Carteret Craven Electrical Cooperative

Refer to Carteret County Public Schools – IPSAC Land Use Study Report for more detailed information (April 5, 2016)

Community Interviews Four complementary pillars of growth in Carteret County: proximity to

Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point and Camp Lejeune, pristine coastal tourism, the Port of Morehead City, and the Marine Lab Research Centers

Construction projects on US 70 and 101 anticipated to spur additional commercial activity, investment and tourism due to decreased travel times

Competing demands for housing Retirement and Vacation Destination Local Families with Incomes near the Median Household Income

Significant Growth Factor: presence and/or absence of Sewer Service Driving growth potential in Newport and Beaufort Restricting growth options in non-sewer service areas of Carteret County

Community InterviewsWater and Sewer Water service and wells comprise water service in Carteret County Sewer available in a few municipalities; otherwise septic systems prevail

Transportation Significant projects will lead to new traffic flows into, out of, and within Carteret

County communities. Upgrades to US 70 and the new Gallant’s Channel Bridge and re-route of US 70 around Downtown Beaufort are major projects

Non-Residential Development At time of interviews, no major commercial or industrial developments planned

to come into the County over the next 5-10 years Points of emphasis were maintaining the County’s role in supporting MSAC

Cherry Point via the MCOLF near Atlantic and Bogue Field. Support includes providing quality schools and affordable housing options for military families

Community InterviewsResidential Development

A number of large-scale developments are currently under construction in Carteret County. There is a sizeable inventory of approved but undeveloped lots. These developments range in location and anticipated sales price.

The largest residential developments under construction were North River Club, Bogue Watch, Cannonsgate, Mariners Pointe, Merrimon Bay, Sportsman Village, and Sea Gate II. Other developments with large construction potential include Star Hill, Silver Creek, White Oak Bluffs, Stanton Landing and Marsh Harbour.

Locations of anticipated future residential development include: Heritage Place in Newport (approx. 330 units); the SAS development in Beaufort (approx. 790 units). Given their sewer capacity, it is anticipated that Newport, Beaufort and Morehead City are areas with additional growth potential

Subdivision Development Construction Progress as of Winter 2016

Development Total Approved Lots Constructed Homes Vacant Lots

North River Club 500 50 450

Bogue Watch 291 75 216

Cannonsgate 525 34 491

Sportsman Village 307 69 238

Merrimon Bay 181 3 178

Sea Gate II 524 175 349

Mariners Pointe 152 41 111

Residential Developments with the Largest Number of Approved Units (Construction Forthcoming)

Development Total Approved Units

SAS Phase I 791

Heritage Place 334

Best Ventures Apartments 232

GIS AnalysisGeographic Information Systems (GIS) can provide a spatial link between data collected during the Community Interviews and district membership forecasts.

GIS data includes streets, parcels, subdivision footprints, and school locations.

GIS AnalysisResidential Geo-database

Identify residential type: SF, MF, TH, CONDO, MHP

Identify subdivisions/ neighborhoods

Calculate developed/ available lots

Calculate Student Generation Ratio (SGR)

White Oak Bluff

92 developed lots

SGR = 0.33 stdnts/lot

GIS Analysis

Riverwatch

46 developed lots

SGR = 0.95 stdnts/lot

GIS Analysis

North River Club

50 developed lots

SGR = 0.45 stdnts/lot

GIS Analysis

Marsh Harbour

100 developed lots

SGR = 1.10 stdnts/lot

GIS Analysis

Beaufort East Village

791 lots/units expected

GIS Analysis

Heritage Place

334 lots/units expected

GIS Analysis

GIS AnalysisThe district-wide single family Student Generation Ratio is about 0.50 students/developed lot.

Results of GIS Analysis are used as an input for the membership forecast.

Data and TrendsIndicator Carteret County North Carolina

Estimated Percent Population Increase April 2010 – July 2013

4.2% 3.4%

Net In-Migration Population Increase April 2010 – July 2013

5.0% 2.1%

Median Household Income 2010-2014

$47,179 $46,693

Projected Population Increase 2010-2020

5.9% 10.9%

Sources: NC OSBM State Demographics Unit, US Census

Data and TrendsCounty Resident Live Births:• 581 RLB in 2014• Downward/flat RLB trend since 2006

CCPS Month-2 ADM:• 8363 K-12 in 2015-16 (NC DPI)• - 10 per year since 2010-11

Membership Forecast

Membership forecasts are based on:

Historical membership data – How do students advance through the K-12 system?

Land Use data – Where are the growth potentials?

Membership Forecast

Forecast Assumptions:

Flat trend in RLB Approved subdivisions will develop at

moderate rate

In-migration will bolster population growth

Membership ForecastComparison of K-12 Forecast Models

Membership ForecastOREd Cohort-Feeder Forecast Model

Average forecasted annual K-12 growth rate = 0.45%

The Out-of-Capacity table combines the membership forecast with capacity information provided by CCPS.

Forecasted Month-2 ADM by school

Program Capacities

Color-coded by Utilization

Out-of-Capacity Analysis

2015-16 Carteret County Public SchoolsOut-of-Capacity Table - by Level

2015-16 Carteret County Public SchoolsOut-of-Capacity Table - by HS Area

2015-16 Carteret County Public SchoolsOut-of-Capacity Map – High Schools

Utilization: 2020-21

Utilization: 2025-26

Carteret County Public Schools2015-16 IPSAC Land Use Study

OPERATIONS RESEARCH AND EDUCATION LABORATORYI N ST I T U TE FO R T R A N S P O RTATI O N R ES EA RC H A N D E D U C AT I ON

C E N T E N N I AL C A M P U S @ N O R T H C A R O L I N A STAT E U N I V ERS I TY

A P R I L 5 , 2 0 1 6