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Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

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Page 1: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008
Page 2: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense

Playing Defense in a Year of Change

Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Page 3: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Table 1. Electoral Outcomes in Elections where thePresidency Changed Parties, 1912–2008

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Page 4: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense

Playing Defense in a Year of Change

Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

A Disagreeable Public Mood

Page 5: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Figure 1. George W. Bush Job Approval, 2001-08

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Page 6: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Figure 2. Public Opinion of whether the nation is onthe “right direction” or “wrong track”, 2006-08

Page 7: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense

Playing Defense in a Year of Change

Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

A Disagreeable Public Mood An Economy in Turmoil

Page 8: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense

Playing Defense in a Year of Change

Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

A Disagreeable Public Mood An Economy in Turmoil Strategic Decision-making

Page 9: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Table 2. Fundraising and Expenditure Totalsfor Congressional Candidates, 2008

Page 10: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Table 3. Party Campaign Committee Fundraising and Spending, 2008

Page 11: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense

Playing Defense in a Year of Change

Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

A Disagreeable Public Mood An Economy in Turmoil Strategic Decision-making The Democrat’s Foundational

Advantage

Page 12: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Figure 3. U.S. Partisan Identification, 2004-08

Page 13: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Figure 4. Generic Congressional Ballot, 2007-08

Page 14: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense

Playing Defense in a Year of Change

Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

A Disagreeable Public Mood An Economy in Turmoil Strategic Decision-making The Democrat’s Foundational

Advantage Exploiting the Republican

Disadvantage

Page 15: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense

Playing Defense in a Year of Change

Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

A Disagreeable Public Mood An Economy in Turmoil Strategic Decision-making The Democrat’s Foundational

Advantage Exploiting the Republican

Disadvantage A Ray of Hope for the GOP

Page 16: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Figure 5. Split-ticket Voting, 1952-2004

Page 17: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Figure 6. Congressional Job Approval, 1999-2008

Page 18: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense

Playing Defense in a Year of Change

Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

A Disagreeable Public Mood An Economy in Turmoil Strategic Decision-making The Democrat’s Foundational

Advantage Exploiting the Republican

Disadvantage A Ray of Hope for the GOP Playing Defense in a Year of Change

Page 19: Cases in Congressional Campaigns: Incumbents Playing Defense Playing Defense in a Year of Change Macrolevel Political Dynamics in 2008

Figure 7. Gains and losses by the president’s partyin presidential elections, 1908-2008