CAUSE OF ‘THE PAUSE’ IN GLOBAL CAUSE OF ‘THE PAUSE’ IN GLOBAL WARMING: ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE WARMING: ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE

CLIMATES-CLIMATES-THE PAST IS THE KEY TO THE FUTURETHE PAST IS THE KEY TO THE FUTURE

Don J. Easterbrook

Dept. of GeologyWestern Washington UniversityBellingham, WA

A LOT OF DATA IS COMING!!! A LOT OF DATA IS COMING!!!

WARNING!!!!

What is What is ‘the pause’ ?‘the pause’ ?

The absence of global warming for the past ~18 years has become known as “the pause.” but, in fact, that is a bad term because it implies that the norm is continued warming and cooling is an anomaly. It has been characterized as the “biggest mystery in climate science,” but it is not a mystery at all—it’s been going on for millenia.

Atmospheric CO2 increased only 0.004% during ‘global warming

Previous Previous ‘pauses’‘pauses’

Three warming periods since 1850 have been interrupted by cool periods (‘pauses’).

20 warming periods since 1480 have been interrupted by cool periods (‘pauses’)

Warm/cool periods Warm/cool periods over the past 10,000 over the past 10,000

yearsyears

Until the Little Ice Age began about 1300 AD, the climate had been 2½-5½ °F warmer than present for 8,500 years.

Cause of the ‘warming pause’Cause of the ‘warming pause’

Glacier fluctuations match the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which matches global temperature

Good correlation of PDO + AMO and Arctic mean temperatures and glaciers in the Alps

GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS

CLIMATE CHANGES

PDO-AMO MODE CHANGES

WHAT DRIVES PDO-AMO MODES?

WHAT’S IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 30 YRS?

Predicting future climatesPredicting future climates

In order to predict where we are heading, we need to know where we’ve been.

The past is the key to the future.

Having established a well-defined pattern of warming and cooling, we can project that pattern into the future.

Historic temperature Historic temperature measurementsmeasurements

Oxygen isotope ratios Oxygen isotope ratios in deep ice coresin deep ice cores..

Advance and retreat of Advance and retreat of glaciers. glaciers.

Measurement of ocean Measurement of ocean temperaturestemperatures

Measuring climatic warming/cooling in the geologic past

Data in this presentation may be found in this volume

PDO 1900-presentPDO 1900-present

Modified from http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

Pattern of repeated warm/cool PDOsPattern of repeated warm/cool PDOs

DJE predictions in 2000DJE predictions in 2000

““Global warming is over“ (Easterbrook, 2000, 2010)Global warming is over“ (Easterbrook, 2000, 2010)

““The current warm cycle should end in the next few The current warm cycle should end in the next few years, and global warming should abate, rather than years, and global warming should abate, rather than increase, in the coming decades.” (Easterbrook, 2000) increase, in the coming decades.” (Easterbrook, 2000)

““The current warm cycle should end soon and global The current warm cycle should end soon and global temperatures should cool.” (Easterbrook, 2006temperatures should cool.” (Easterbrook, 2006

How cool will it get?

1, Like 1945-1977?

2. Like 1880-1915?

3. Like 1790-1820 Dalton Minimum?

4. Like 1650-1700 Maunder Minimum?

How well is the 2000 cooling prediction doing?

5-year and 10 year cooling trends

Winters in the US have been much cooler than usual in the past 15 years

SummarySummary

A consistent pattern of global warming and cooling has A consistent pattern of global warming and cooling has occurred occurred for hundreds (thousands) of years.for hundreds (thousands) of years.

The pattern of past global warming and cooling can be The pattern of past global warming and cooling can be projected projected into the future as a basis for predicting climate into the future as a basis for predicting climate changes.changes.

The pattern of global warming and cooling matches warm and The pattern of global warming and cooling matches warm and cool cool periods of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and is periods of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and is clearly clearly related to the PDO/AMO.related to the PDO/AMO.

Projection of past climate patterns into the future, combined Projection of past climate patterns into the future, combined with the PDO turning cold in 1999 led to 2000 predictions with the PDO turning cold in 1999 led to 2000 predictions

of of cooler global climates in the next several decades.cooler global climates in the next several decades.

So far my 2000 prediction of global cooling is indeed So far my 2000 prediction of global cooling is indeed happening.happening.

The cause of global warming and coolingThe cause of global warming and cooling

Role of the sun in climate changeRole of the sun in climate change Correlation of global temperature and Correlation of global temperature and

1. Sun spot number (SSN)1. Sun spot number (SSN) 2. Iotal solar insolation (TSI)2. Iotal solar insolation (TSI) 3. Solar magnetism3. Solar magnetism 4. Cosmic ray intensity4. Cosmic ray intensity 5. Production rate of 10Be.5. Production rate of 10Be. 6. Prodcution rate of 14C6. Prodcution rate of 14C

CET during the Maunder

Sun spots and cool periods Sun spots and cool periods

TSI and global temperatureTSI and global temperature

SSN and TSISSN and TSI

Global cooling and TSIGlobal cooling and TSI

Solar magnetic flux

Production rates of Production rates of 14C and 10Be as a measure of past cosmic ray activituy

14N7 + n = 14C6 + 1H1

14C6 = 14N7 + -

Production of 14C6 varies with the neutron flux, causing 14C6 age to differ from calendar age

Comparison of 14C ages with ages of tree rings gives a measure of 14C production rates (and thus changes in cosmic radiation)

10Be is produced in the atmosphere by the cosmic ray spallation of oxygen and is also a function of

cosmic ray flux.

10Be

CET temperature and 10Be

10Be and SSN

BothBoth 10Be and 14C record increased cosmic activity

Sun spots and cosmic rays

Cosmic ray incidence increases with low sun spot numbers

Temperature decreases with increase in cosmic raysTemperature decreases with increase in cosmic rays

Condensation produced by cosmic rays

‘‘Global warming’ began in 1978.Global warming’ began in 1978.

‘‘The pause’ is a period of no warming for The pause’ is a period of no warming for the past 17 yrs 9 months.the past 17 yrs 9 months.

Temperatures for the past 10,000 yrs Temperatures for the past 10,000 yrs were 2½-5½°F warmer than present until were 2½-5½°F warmer than present until 1500 yrs ago when we entered the LIA1500 yrs ago when we entered the LIA. .

Many period of warming that ended with Many period of warming that ended with cool periods have occurred in the past.cool periods have occurred in the past.

Well-defined patterns of the PDO and Well-defined patterns of the PDO and global temperature projected into the global temperature projected into the future indicate 25-30 yrs of cooling.future indicate 25-30 yrs of cooling.

My 2000 prediction of 25-30 yrs of cooling My 2000 prediction of 25-30 yrs of cooling has been confirmed by cooling in the past has been confirmed by cooling in the past decade.decade.

The amount of cooling might be similar to The amount of cooling might be similar to the 1945-1977, 1890-1915, Dalton (1790-the 1945-1977, 1890-1915, Dalton (1790-1820), or Maunder (1650-1700) cooling.1820), or Maunder (1650-1700) cooling.

CONCLUSONS

Good correlation of SSN, TSI, solar magnetism, Good correlation of SSN, TSI, solar magnetism, cosmic ray intensity, and production rates of cosmic ray intensity, and production rates of 14C and 10Be and global temperature indicate cause-and-effect relationships between them.

The Maunder, Dalton, 1890-1915, and 1945-1890-1915, and 1945-1977 cool periods were all characterized by 1977 cool periods were all characterized by low SSN, low TSI, low solar magnetism, and low SSN, low TSI, low solar magnetism, and high production rates of high production rates of 14C and 10Be.

Increased cosmic radiation induces Increased cosmic radiation induces atmospheric condensation that could lead to atmospheric condensation that could lead to increased cloudiness and cooler temperatures increased cloudiness and cooler temperatures (Svensmark).(Svensmark).

The sun causes global warming and cooling, The sun causes global warming and cooling, but the mechanism is not understood.but the mechanism is not understood.

Look for continued global cooling.Look for continued global cooling.

Time will be the judge of whether or not these Time will be the judge of whether or not these observations and conclusions are correct. observations and conclusions are correct.

Dogma is an impediment to the free exercise of thought. It paralyses the intelligence.

Conclusions based upon preconceived ideas are valueless. It is only the open mind that really thinks. Patricia Wentworth, 1949

For data and information go to: Bing.com or Google.com and enter Don Easterbrook global warming