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Cautious, Conservative and Consistent Growth
CLSA Investors’ Forum
9th September 2019
Macro Environment showing signs of weakness
2
0.1%1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3%
2.7%1.9%
1.4%1.4%
0.4%
5.3% 5.0%
4.8%4.8%
4.3%
8.0% 7.9%
6.9%6.6%
4.9%
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20
Agriculture Industry Services
3
Global economy is slowing, reflected in India too with growth weakening
India GVA growth
Source: *IMF Estimates, MOSPI, Axis Bank Research
Global growth has slowed down recently
3.58%
3.44%
3.37%
3.77%
3.58%
3.22%
CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17 CY18 CY19E*
High frequency indicators point towards slowdown in industry and
services sectors
4
Source: Various government and private bodies
-15%
-5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
Q1 FY18 Q3 FY18 Q1 FY19 Q3 FY19 Q1 FY20
% Y
oY
CV Sales
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Q1 FY18 Q3 FY18 Q1 FY19 Q3 FY19 Q1 FY20
% Y
oY Traffic movement
Cargo traffic: All airports Passenger traffic: All airports
2%
4%
6%
8%
Q1 FY18 Q3 FY18 Q1 FY19 Q3 FY19 Q1 FY20
% Y
oY
Rail freight
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Q1 FY18 Q3 FY18 Q1 FY19 Q3 FY19 Q1 FY20
% Y
oY Cement Production
Liquidity has improved and rates have begun to come down, but offtake is
still sluggish
5Source: RBI, Axis Bank Research
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
9.5
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19
%% Bank Lending Rates
WALR(Fresh Rupee Loans)
MCLR
Repo Rate [R]
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19
Non-food credit growth (%, YoY)
Some other factors affecting corporates
Source: RBI, IBBI, Axis Capital, Axis Bank Research
Promoter leverage remains high Resolutions taking some time
...Out of the 94 CIRPs that ended with resolution
plan, 65 cases got approved after 270 days
Though recovery rates are almost twice as high...
23%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
DRT, SARFAESI, LokAdalats, etc.,: 2007-17
Realisation by FCs underIBC: 2017-19
Average recovery under various recovery regimes
5
24
65
0
20
40
60
80
<= 180 180 - 270 > 270
Num
ber
of
cases
Number of days taken to approve resolution plan6
9
12
15
18
21
5
10
15
20
25
Jun
-10
Jun
-11
Jun
-12
Jun
-13
Jun
-14
Jun
-15
Jun
-16
Jun
-17
Jun
-18
Jun
-19
(%)
($ bn)
Promoter shares pledged
Pledged value of promoter equity [RHS]
NBFCs with ALM/asset quality concerns
have faced funding issues
6
Category wise 3-month CP spreads over 91-day T-bill
7
Government’s measures to boost growth
Banks/NBFCs
• Upfront release of `70,000 Crore Capital for PSBs
• Additional liquidity support of `20,000 Crore to HFCs by NHB
• Co-origination of loans by PSBs jointly with NBFCs
• Repayment of future GST refunds to MSMEs within 60 days
• Amendment to MSME Act being considered
• Decisions on U.K. Sinha Committee recommendations# within 30 days
Source: Presentation made by Union Finance & Corporate Affairs Minister in Aug’19
• Delayed payments from Government/ CPSEs to be monitored
• `100 lakh crores allocated for developing infrastructure over 5 years
• Decision to pay 75% of the arbitration awards
• Revision of one time registration fees deffered till June 2020
• Higher depreciation at 30% for all vehicles acquired till March 2020
• Lifting of ban on purchase of new vehicles by Government Depts.
Ministry of Finance has shown intent to further continue engaging with stakeholders for timely and suitable interventions for
different sectors
Infrastructure
MSMEs
Automotive
# include recommendations such as on ease of credit, marketing, technology, delayed payments
The Axis Bank Story – Recent Performance
8
9
Over the last 10 years, Axis Bank has built an enviable franchise
Balance Sheet CASA Deposits Advances Branches
Credit Cards Operating Profit Subsidiaries Brand
827
4,094
FY09 Q1FY20
81,557
4,97,276
FY09 Q1FY20
52% retail
20% retail
50,644
2,23,474
FY09 Q1FY20
4x
3,725
19,005
FY09 FY19
2.1%
10.5%
FY11 2MFY20
Market Share on
spends
1,47,722
7,74,566
FY09 Q1FY20
` crore
5x 6x 5x
5x 5x
` crore ` crore
` crore
33%38% 40% 41%
45% 47% 50% 52%
Share of Retail in Advances
36%38%
43%45%
50%
55%
61% 62%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20
68%
75%78%
81% 81%84%
81% 80%
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
10
The Bank’s Retail franchise continues to remain robust
Share of Retail in Deposits Retail Loan mix and share in Total Advances Share of Retail in Fee Income
* Includes CASA and Retail TD
Retail Deposits* CAGR^ 16% Retail Advances CAGR^ 25% Retail Fees CAGR** 21%
All numbers in ₹ bn
^ CAGR over Mar’13 to June’19
** CAGR over FY13 to FY19
54% 50% 48% 45% 44% 40% 38% 38%
18%15%
16%17% 16%
15%14% 13%
11%
10%8% 9% 10%
11%11% 12%
6%
6%7% 8% 8%
10% 12% 12%
6%
7%7% 8% 8% 8% 9% 8%
2%
2%2% 3% 4% 4% 5% 5%
1% 2% 3% 3% 4%
3%10% 12% 9% 8% 9% 8% 8%
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
Home loans Rural lending Auto loans PL
LAP CC SBB Others
PL – Personal Loan, SBB – Small Business Banking,
LAP – Loan against Property, CC – Credit Cards
73,3
74
75,2
92
79,3
91
81,5
18
83,3
29
87,1
67
93,2
55
96,4
20
1,0
9,2
25
1,1
2,7
25
1,1
3,8
78
1,1
6,9
25
1,2
1,3
22
1,2
6,2
70
1,3
4,6
27
1,3
7,2
81
1,4
0,0
81
1,4
2,9
67
1,4
7,4
54
34,6
98
37,1
60
37,6
79
37,8
12
40,8
42
44,2
44
43,7
90
45,5
70
52,9
41
52,9
33
56,6
17
59,0
20
64,3
66
60,5
81
61,3
48
61,3
34
66,6
64
66,7
09
68,7
77
1,0
0,0
98
1,0
5,7
41
1,1
0,0
67
1,1
2,5
74
1,1
8,2
89
1,2
3,3
26
1,2
8,4
38
1,3
3,6
02
1,3
0,7
73
1,2
4,3
00
1,2
9,5
77
1,3
4,8
05
1,3
8,0
74
1,4
1,5
08
1,4
5,3
03
1,5
8,7
89
1,7
0,4
60
1,8
6,8
35
2,0
7,3
61
Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
SA (QAB) CA (QAB) RTD* (QAB)
24%
19% 18%
15% 16% 17% 17%19%
21%
14% 13% 13%11%
13% 14%15%
17%
21%
24%
(CASA+RTD*) QAB
Granular deposits have seen strong growth during the last four years
All figures in ` Crores
* Retail Term Deposits
Medium term average = 17%
11
2.68%
2.80%2.84%
2.96%
2.96%
4.00%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Axis Bank Market share inTerm Deposits
Source: RBI, Axis Bank
19%
19%
17%
8%
4%
Private Banks
Axis Bank (Domestic)
Axis Bank (Overall)
All Banks
PSBs
FY14-19 CAGR growth in Advances
12
The Bank has historically grown at much higher pace than industry
Source: RBI, Axis Bank
19% 20%21%
25%27%
30%33%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Share of Private Banks in Advances has been consistently rising in recent years
Private Banks PSBs Foreign Banks
FY19 Market
Share of 5%
5.6%7.2%
8.2%9.8%
11.2%12.0% 12.7% 12.6%
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
3.9%
5.8%7.1%
8.0% 8.7%9.6% 10.2% 10.6%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20
Credit Cards in Force – Market Share*
Credit Cards Spends – Market Share
Source: RBI Data Reports | *Market share as of the year ending period
Our Credit Cards business has grown strongly in the last 6 years
and is now the 4th largest in the country
Premium Cards
Co-branded Cards
Featured Cards
13
Flipkart Axis Bank Credit Card
• Strong digital distribution channel
• Partnership with industry leaders as preferred merchants across categories
• Real time Issuance over Flipkart & existing Axis Bank channels
• Instant credit card issuance & usage on Flipkart
New Launch
We are among the top rated players in mobile banking
14
7.9%
9.3%
15.2%
21.8%
Player 4Axis BankPlayer 2Player 1
Mobile Transactions Market Share for Q1FY20
(by Volume)
Source: RBI data
2018 Global Rank
#14 vs. #32 in 2017
Among 42 leading banks worldwide
Axis Bank Mobile App
People’s Choice
Store Rating
4.64.6
15
Digital Channels contribute substantially to overall transaction, sourcing
and disbursement volumes
* Based on all financial transactions by individual customers
78% of all financial
transactions* were digital
Digital, 78%
ATM, 17%
Branches, 5%
Digital, 59%
Physical, 41%
59% of Savings Accounts
were sourced through Tab
Digital, 54%Physical,
46%
54% of Personal loans were
sourced through Digital channels
16
However, the last 2-3 years have been extremely challenging for the Bank
1,179 1,2961,789
3,800
11,157
16,599
10,221
2,886
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20
Provision for non-performing assets*
2,023 2,548 2,854
7,345
21,782
33,419
13,871
4,798
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20
Gross Slippages
*including bad debts written off and write backs
All figures in ` Crores
1.06% 1.22% 1.34%1.67%
5.04%
6.77%
5.26% 5.25%
0.32% 0.40% 0.44%0.70%
2.11%
3.40%
2.06% 2.04%
Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
GNPA and NNPA ratios
GNPA%
17
The asset quality challenges of recent years have moderated
27,411
19,685
8,9947,467 7,504
7.3%
4.7%
1.8%
1.3% 1.3%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0 %
2.0 %
4.0 %
6.0 %
8.0 %
0
500 0
100 00
150 00
200 00
250 00
300 00
Jun-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
As a % of Gross Customer Assets
BB & Below pool size has been shrinking
0.61% 0.62% 0.61%
1.11%
2.82%
3.57%
1.91%
2.45%
2.06%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY19Q1FY20
*
*
79%78% 78%
72%
65%65%
77%
78%
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20
Credit cost has moderated Provision Coverage ratio is now at 78%
• Bank continues to remain cautious and conservative when it comes to downgrades, recognition and provisioning
• As on 30thJune 2019, the Bank has additional provisions of `2,358 crores towards various risk contingencies, over and above the regular NPA
provisioning and the 0.4% standard assets provisioning requirement
* Q1FY19 and Q1FY20 credit costs are annualised
We have re-organized the Wholesale Bank, creating an integrated franchise
Re-Oriented Coverage Groups
Large Corporate Mid Corporate Commercial BankingFocused Segmental
Coverage
CreditLiabilities and
Transaction BankingTreasury
Bank and Subsidiary Products
Strengthened Operations and Service Infrastructure
18
Note: Classification based on client annual revenue – Commercial ( `10 cr- `250 cr); Mid (` 250 cr- ` 1000 cr); Large ( > ` 1000 cr)
19
Wholesale Credit Underwriting environment at Axis Bank has been decisively reset
Enhanced Credit Underwriting framework – Exposure levels commensurate with ratings
Strengthening of Early Warning System (EWS) framework
Adopting conservative approach towards downgrading into BB & Below book
Formula based approach towards building up contingency provisions
Accountability framework in place for the Business teams to have better role clarity
New originations in Corporate Credit are more granular and Bond book is
being right sized
287%
209%
155% 154%162%
142%
124% 121%112%
99%
Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
Exposure to Top 20 single borrowers as a % of Tier I Capital
Corporate Bond portfolioConcentration Risk has reduced
significantly from peak
20
95% of sanctions in Q1FY20 was rated A-and above 95% of bonds rated A- and above
40,169
29,296
Mar-19 Jun-19
Outstanding Non SLR Corporate bond* book
*Only includes standard investments
21
In Retail, the Bank has held steady low levels of LTV and FOIR for new originations
61% 62%
Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
Average LTV – HL Sanctions
48%43%
Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
Average FOIR – HL Sanctions
39% 43%
Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
Average LTV - LAP Sanctions
55%
41%
Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
Average FOIR – LAP Sanctions
FOIR – Fixed obligation to income ratio
LAP – Loan against Property
HL
LAP
0.40x 0.40x
0.67x
0.76x0.78x
0.93x
Loan against Property Credit Card Home Loan Personal Loan Auto Loan Commercial Vehicle
22
The portfolio choices and conservative underwriting policies in Retail have
resulted in better risk outcomes than peer average
Delinquency benchmarking (as of Mar’19)
Peer Private Bank average = x
Axis Bank
2.21% 2.22%
2.08%
2.15%2.17%
2.13%
2.08%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20
Opex to Average Assets
We have also started focusing rigorously on the cost efficiency of
our businessAll figures in ` Crores
23
14%
16%
10%
21%
15%
13%
3%
19%
17%16%
14%
-1%
18%
20%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20
Operating Expense growth Operating Revenue growth
Positive
Jaws
Opex to assets ratio moderated even further… … resulting in widening of positive jaws
* Q1FY20 figures are annualised
*
18.23 18.5717.49
7.22
0.53
8.099.19
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20
Return on Equity (in %)
All this has resulted in a slow but noticeable improvement in
shareholder return metrics
1.78 1.831.72
0.65
0.04
0.630.69
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20
Return on Assets (in %)
26.45
30.85
34.93
15.34
1.12
18.09
21.14
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Q1FY20
Diluted EPS (`)
163
188
223233
247259
272
Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
Book Value Per Share (`)
24* Q1FY20 figures are annualised
*
*
*
3.63%3.45% 3.38% 3.33% 3.46% 3.36% 3.47% 3.44% 3.40%
Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20
Global NIM
Operating performance metrics were strong during the quarter
25
2.87%2.39% 2.32% 2.20% 2.47% 2.21%
2.90% 2.60%2.97%
Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20
Operating Profit Margin
17%12%
24%
1%6%
9%
16%
23%26%
Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20
Fee income growth
Includes ~17 bps impact of
interest realization from recovery
on an IBC List 1 account
65%
60%
66% 65%
69%
73%75%
77% 78%
Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19
Provision Coverage Ratio
4.9% 5.4%
11.3%
8.1% 9.2%
Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20
Return on Equity*
* Annualised figures
2.17% 2.17% 2.17% 2.17% 2.16% 2.15% 2.15%2.13%
2.08%
Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20
Opex to Average Assets ratio*
Through various measures over the last few quarters, the Bank now holds additional provisions
of `2,358 crores
1 2
3 4
5 6
The Axis Bank Story – Strategy for FY20-22
26
27
Three vectors of our strategy for the next three years
rowth rofitability ustainability
• Grow deposits in line with loans
• Step up growth in Wholesale
Bank
• Continue momentum in Retail
Bank
• Establish leadership in digital and
payments
• Scale-up subsidiaries materially
• Optimize business mix
• Improve operating efficiency
• Sweat existing infrastructure
• Reduce credit cost below long
term average
• Strengthen the Core -
technology, operations, credit risk
and process excellence
• Focus on disciplined execution
• Embed conservatism in the
Bank’s internal policies and
practices
Our goal is to deliver 18% ROE sustainably
28
The Bank continues to increase conservatism in all its business choices
Consolidation of all
Underwriting operations
under one separate vertical
headed by CCO
Strengthen Operational
Compliance and Risk
Management architecture
Systematically increase
provisioning across identified
weak standard and non fund
based assets
Growth rates to be an
outcome of deliberate and
conservative choices
Credit Underwriting
Risk Management
Business Growth
Balance Sheet strengthening
19.7%
9.2%
18%
Avg FY11-15 Q1FY20 Medium termAspiration
ROE
29
The ROE path back to 18% would be driven by three elements
3 drivers of the return to 18% ROE
Risk normalization
Business mix optimization
Improvement in Operating efficiency
Reduce credit cost below long term average
Reduce Cost to Assets to 2%
Portfolio choices based on RaRoC
1
2
3
*
* Q1FY20 figures are annualised
30
MD & CEO
ED Wholesale Banking
ED Retail
Banking
ED Corporate
CenterCRO CCO CFO Head IT
Head Digital
Banking
We now have the entire team in place to turn our aspiration into reality in the medium term
MD & CEO – Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer; ED – Executive Director; CRO – Chief Risk Officer;
CCO – Chief Credit Officer; CFO – Chief Financial Officer
Other key positions include
Ravi Narayan joined the Bank as Head of Branch Banking in Feb 2019.
Ganesh Sankaran joined the Bank in March 2019 and heads the Wholesale Banking Coverage Group.
Narendra Kumar Dixit joined the Bank in July 2019 as Head of Liability Sales
Ratan Kesh joined the Bank in April 2019 as Head - Process Transformation & Service Excellence
Amit Talgeri joined the Bank as Head Retail Risk in April 2019
Neeraj Gambhir joined the Axis family as Head of Treasury & Markets in June 2019.
Deepak Maheshwari
(joined in Jan 2019)
Sameer Shetty(joined in July 2019)
Pralay Mondal*(joined in April 2019)
* appointed as the ED (Retail Banking) of the Bank with effect from 1st Aug’ 2019
• Has been the leader in Equity and Equity
linked deals over the last decade
• Offers investors and companies with the
spectrum of financial needs in the areas of
Equity Capital Markets, M&A, Private Equity,
Structured Finance and Institutional Equities.
• Axis Securities is one of the fastest growing
stock brokerage firms in India,
• Currently ranked 3rd among brokerages in
India in terms of total client base.
• Axis Bank was one of the three entities allowed
by RBI to set up the Trade Receivables
Discounting System (TReDS), an electronic
platform for facilitating cash flows for MSMEs
• Our digital invoice discounting platform
‘Invoicemart’ continues to be India’s leading
TReDS platform with market share of nearly 41%
• One of the fastest growing NBFCs with loan
book of `7,962 crores (as of June’19)
• Offers complementary product offerings to
Bank customers that include Structured
Financing, Special Situations Funding, etc
31
We are also tightly integrating the key subsidiaries of the Bank and investing in scaling them as key value drivers
• Axis Mutual Fund is among the fastest growing
AMC since launch in ‘09
• Has market share of 4.01% as at end of
June’19
• Acquired in Sep’17, it is among the top non-
bank financial services platform in the industry
with a significant customer franchise footprint
• Freecharge is being positioned by the Bank
as an engine that generates a large base of
new to bank customers that are young and
digitally native
32
In Summary
Axis Bank has built an enviable franchise over the last 10 years
Amidst tough macro environment, the Bank remains positioned for cautious,
conservative and consistent growth
We remain committed to our 3 year Execution Strategy, with an aspiration of
delivering 18% ROE sustainably
However, the last 2-3 years have been extremely challenging for the Bank
During FY19, the Bank crossed the inflection point on this tough journey
The Bank continues to increase conservatism in all its business choices
Except for the historical information contained herein, statements in this release which
contain words or phrases such as “will”, “aim”, “will likely result”, “would”, “believe”,
“may”, “expect”, “will continue”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “intend”, “plan”, “contemplate”,
“seek to”, “future”, “objective”, “goal”, “strategy”, “philosophy”, “project”, “should”, “will
pursue” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions may constitute
"forward-looking statements". These forward-looking statements involve a number of
risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially
from those suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties
include, but are not limited to our ability to successfully implement our strategy, future
levels of non-performing loans, our growth and expansion, the adequacy of our
allowance for credit losses, our provisioning policies, technological changes, investment
income, cash flow projections, our exposure to market risks as well as other risks. Axis
Bank Limited undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect
events or circumstances after the date thereof.
33
Safe Harbor
Thank you
35