CAV -System Developer Perspectives · Teammate Programme) • Level 4 carsarelikelytobeoperable in specificareas in thenextdecade GM Ford Honda Toyota. Click to edit Master title

20-11-18 1

CAV - System Developer PerspectivesJörg Dubbert – VDI/VDE-Innovation + Technology

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Utrecht, 14 and 15 November

Predictions of Global Automakers

System Developer Perspectives

2Source: techemergence, October 2018

• Bought Cruise Automation (self-driving car startup)

• Want to become first in mass production

• For the moment focus on ride sharing

• first in a limited geographic area

• Co-operation with Lyft

• No timeline announced

• Invested in Argo AI (robotics company founded by

Google and Uber leaders)

• „fully autonomous vehicle“ announced for 2021, i.e. a

Level 4 vehicle in a pre-defined areas (also in cities

• first applications in ride hailing

• Level 3 may be skipped

• Cooperation with Waymo discussed: Waymo self-

driving technology to be integrated

• Self-driving cars on highways by 2020

• Own investments in robotics and AI

• Self-driving cars on highways by 2020 (Highway

Teammate Programme)

• Level 4 cars are likely to be operable in specific areas

in the next decade

GM Ford

ToyotaHonda



Predictions of Global Automakers



• New partnership with Microsoft• 10 different self-driving car models by 2020 planned• Steps by 2020: first on-lane highway, second multi-

lane highway, urban driving• Probably 2025: driverless car

• Partnership with Uber• Target the ridesharing industry and luxury cars first• Provide Uber with vehicle technology• Highway autonomy/ full autopilot by 2021• Accept full liability for cars in autonomous mode

• Cooperation with Uber on the delivery of self-drivingvehicles for Uber‘s ridesharing

• Want to produce Level 4 and 5 vehicles for urban useby the beginning of the next century

• Large-scale production to take off between 2020 and2025

• Autonomous truck has already now permission to beoperated in Nevada

• New partnership with Intel and Mobileye• Highly and fully automated driving (Level 3) in series

production by 2021 • maybe also L4 and L5 capacity depending on

regulatory and infrastructure issues

VolvoRenault Nissan Mitsubishi

DaimlerBMW



Verification with Roadmaps


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Urban Mobility Vehicles



Predictions of Global Automakers – Conlusions• Level 3/4 automation in predefined areas is likely to start in the first half of the coming

decade.• Highway Automony and ridesharing applications will most likely be the first applications,

Urban autonomy to follow in the second half of the decade.• First applications to be expected in luxury cars, ride sharing and freight vehicles. • Significant equipment rates which make an impact in traffic: around 2025?



Predictions of Global Automakers – General Assessment• Statements of automobile company may be slightly overly optimistic due to the fact of

competition, media attention, appeal to investors, recruiting efforts etc.

• Timelines depend heavily on regulatory developments and on liability concerns in the next years

• Integration of technologies traffic management and service operation schemes is not always clear.




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Problem: R&D activities in the automotive industry concentrate on the single vehicle......hoping that a single vehicle will be intellgent enough to move around....

But traffic is a collective phenomenon...Traffic management does not seem to be a focus area in research... This gap needs to be filled systematically. Who will leads this? Traffic Management must be adopted for vehicles partly/fully without drivers!




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Problems for Discussion: There will be a need for overarching management in mixed and automated traffic.Do AV require finally also automated traffic management including AI? Do we have visions and plans traffic management with AVs and without active drivers?

How does traffic monitoring, control and guidance change ?How will road maintenance, extreme road weather and incidents be managed?How will traffic regulations be fed into AVs (statically and dynamically)?How will traffic regulations be enforced?Do AVs special vehicle and driver/passenger monitoring? Do we need to separate automated traffic from non-automated traffic?

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CAV -System Developer Perspectives · Teammate Programme) • Level 4 carsarelikelytobeoperable in specificareas in thenextdecade GM Ford Honda Toyota. Click to edit Master title