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Moderator Russ Nelson
NTH
Suburban Dave Marschinke
CBRE Inc.
Minneapolis CBD Sonja Dusil
Cushman Wakefield | Northmarq
Development Tony Barranco Ryan Companies
2015 Suburban Office Update Dave Marschinke CBRE Inc.
2015 Minneapolis CBD Update Sonja Dusil Cushman Wakefield | Northmarq
2015 Office Development Update Tony Barranco Ryan Companies
Dave Marschinke – CBRE
BOMA – January 2015
13%
494 Corridor
12%
11%
24%
16%
YTD 2014 Absorption:
258,448
Vacancy Q3 2014
394 Corridor
% V
acant
YTD 2014 Absorption:
258,448
494 Corridor %
Vacant
YTD 2014 Absorption:
(144,233)
Flight to Quality – Best In Class Vacancy - Q3 2014
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
4Q
00
4Q
01
4Q
02
4Q
03
4Q
04
4Q
05
4Q
06
4Q
07
4Q
08
4Q
9
4Q
10
4Q
11
4Q
12
4Q
13
YTD
601 Tower Centennial Lakes
Normandale Lakes Colonnade
Class A
601 Tower
Normandale Lakes
Centennial Lakes
Colonnade
Current Best In Class Vacancy Rate: 6.4%
Current "Class A“ Vacancy Rate: 17.3%
601 Tower
Normandale Lakes
Centennial Lakes
Colonnade
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% V
aca
nt
Best In Class Rest of Class A
Flight to Quality – Best In Class vs. Rest of Class A Vacancy - Q3 2014
Large Space Options - Locations
Edina Corporate
Center
113,752 sq. ft.
Vacant - 2016
Large Space Options
Best Buy Headquarters
275,000 SF
GE - 1 Capital Drive
100,000 SF
Supervalu
350,000 SF
The Hartford
100,000 SF
Prudential
150,00 SF
Best Buy Headquarters
275,000 SF
Supervalu
350,000 SF
GE – 1 Capital Drive
100,000 SF
Prudential
150,000 SF The Hartford
100,000 SF
1550 Utica
50,000 SF
Normandale 8300
50,000 SF
One MarketPointe
150,000 SF
Plymouth Corporate Center
360,000 SF
Suburban Deals
Bass Creek Corporate Center
120,000 SF
The West End
7 Acres, 2 Office Towers
650,000 SF – Class A
Parkdales (6 Buildings)
560,000 Sf
62.6% Leased
The Offices at MOA
7 story, 170,000 sf
Sept. 2015 delivery
Pentagon Park
Renovated 5 Buildings, 300,000 sf
4 of 5 Buildings 90-100% Leased Phase1 of Redevelopment Started in October
Success & Opportunities
The West End
7 Acres, 2 Office Towers
650,000 SF – Class A
Opportunities
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview
Office Space Activity Report & Summary
What’s Happening in Dynamic Minneapolis
Current Market Trends
Looking into 2015 & Beyond
Minneapolis CBD Dynamic Downtown Minneapolis
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview
Stable? Vigorous? Trouble Ahead?
CBD Office Summary
Vacancy Trending Downward
Absorption Solid Activity
Rental Rates Trending Upward for Prime Space
Availability Large Blocks of Space Remain
Office Space Activity Report & Summary Dynamic Downtown Minneapolis
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview Historical Vacancy Mpls CBD vs. Twin Cities
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mpls CBD Twin Cities
Pe
rce
nt V
acan
t
15.9%
15.5% 15.9%
16.6%
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview Historical Absorption Mpls CBD vs. Twin Cities
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mpls CBD Twin Cities
182,000 sf – Mpls CBD
182 272
2014 Absorption
Squa
re F
eet
(in T
housa
nds)
1,468
-1,831
272,000 sf – Twin Cities
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview Historical Class A Net Rental Rates
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mpls CBD Twin Cities
Mpls CBD vs. Twin Cities
MINNEAPOLIS CBD
OFFICE SUBMARKET
2012 2013 2014
Class A $15.92 $17.21 $17.78
Class B $10.34 $11.19 $11.93
Class C $10.24 $10.34 $10.62
Net
Rent
(Dolla
rs P
er
Squar
e F
oot)
$17.78
$16.47
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview Historical Office New Construction Mpls CBD vs. Twin Cities
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mpls CBD Twin Cities
Sq
ua
re F
ee
t (in
Th
ou
sa
nd
s)
954
0 0 19 0 0
178
523
225 158
332
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview Large Blocks of Available Space 80,000 Square Feet +
111 Washington Square
300,000 SF
Fifth Street Towers
87,000 SF - 100 Tower
86,000 SF - 150 Tower
901 3rd Ave
260,000 SF
Marquette Plaza
111,000 SF US Bancorp Center
120,000 SF
IDS Center
83,000 SF 100 Washington Square
84,000 SF
Gaviidae I
125,000 SF
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview Large Blocks of Available Space 100,000 Square Feet +
111 Washington 901 3rd Ave Marquette Plaza US Bancorp
Center
Gaviidae I
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview Notable 2015 Minneapolis CBD Transactions
18,500 SF 116,000 SF
132,000 SF
28,000 SF 29,000 SF
29,705 SF
31,384 SF
54,444 SF
Dynamic Downtown Minneapolis
53,000 SF
45,000 SF 20,000 SF
24,000 SF
76,000 SF
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview Beyond the Statistics
DOWNTOWN MINNEAPOLIS
RENAISSANCE
Dynamic Downtown Minneapolis
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview
Housing & Hotels
Vikings Stadium
Super Bowl 2018
Transit Expansion
Nicollet Mall Renovation
Mayo Clinic Square
= Evolution to a 24/7 City
Beyond the Statistics Dynamic Downtown Minneapolis
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview Minneapolis CBD Office Trends
Confidence & Consolidation Reduction of Square Footage Per Employee
Transaction Velocity & Long Term Commitment
Corporate Commitment to CBD
Wells Fargo / Be the Match / Center Point Energy / Xcel Energy
Spec Office Space Announced
Target Field Station – UP
T3 - Hines
Dynamic Downtown Minneapolis
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview
Abundant Vacancy
1.5 Million Square Feet in 2016/2017
TCF / Wells Fargo / Excel / Center Point
Flexibility & Mobility
Continued Evolution of Work Environments
Continued Renovation and Repurpose Nieman Marcus / Gav I & II / Macy’s / Soo Line
Baker Block / Northstar / 510 Marquette
Looking Ahead Dynamic Downtown Minneapolis
Minneapolis
Office Market
Overview Looking Ahead Dynamic Downtown Minneapolis
BOMA Presentation By Tony Barranco, VP of Development
Ryan Companies US, Inc.
January 15, 2015
WHEN IS IT TIME TO BUILD?
TYPICAL MULTITENANT OFFICE DEVELOPMENT CYCLE
BOMA
WHEN IS IT TIME TO BUILD?
TYPICAL MULTITENANT OFFICE DEVELOPMENT CYCLE
Occupancy (X)
+ Rents (Y)
+ Return on TPC is (Z)
= Time to build
BOMA
WHEN IS IT TIME TO BUILD?
TYPICAL MULTITENANT OFFICE DEVELOPMENT CYCLE
Occupancy (X)
+ Rents (Y)
+ Return on TPC is (Z)
= Time to build
BOMA
We usually like to have an anchor
tenant and financing too…
BOMA
United Health
1,478,700 SF
Be The Match
220,000 SF
Target North Campus
650,000 SF
Wells Fargo
1,100,000 SF
NOTABLE NEW CONSTRUCTION
BOMA
Xcel Energy
220,000 SF
Toro
75,000 SF
NOTABLE NEW CONSTRUCTION
CenterPoint Energy
100,000 SF
BOMA
T3 (Hines)
200,000 SF
MOA Office
170,000 SF
NOTABLE NEW CONSTRUCTION
Target Field Station
240,000 SF
NOTABLE OFFICE DEVELOPMENT/CONSTRUCTION
The big story in the Twin Cities office market is the amount of new space
that is delivered into the market, and how assets are repositioned after…
BOMA
BUILD TO SUIT Size Delivery
• United Health 1,478,700 SF 2015
• Target North Campus 650,000 SF 2015
• Be The Match 220,000 SF 2016
• Wells Fargo 1,100,000 SF 2016
• Xcel Energy 220,000 SF 2016
• CenterPoint Energy 100,000 SF 2015
• Toro 75,000 SF 2016
MULTITENANT
ALSO: Two spec buildings in North Loop and the Mall of America
• T3 (Hines) 200,000 SF 2016
• Target Field Station 240,000 SF
• MOA Office 170,000 SF 2015
TOTAL NEW SQUARE FOOTAGE 4,453,700!
WHY ARE COMPANIES BUILDING NEW?
With 16.6% vacancy, what factors are driving companies to build
• Attract and retain talent
• Consolidate locations
• Control their destiny
• Provide amenities (bike rooms,
common areas, fitness) – See
first bullet
• Financial Reasons, companies
have strong balance sheets –
can always monetize RE Assets
in the future
BOMA
Also: (Some notable properties coming off of the market)
• Plymouth Bldg
• Star Tribune Headquarters
• Soo Line
NOTABLE REPOSITIONING
Again, thinking about this in terms of new space that is delivered into
competitive set
• Pentagon Park
• 510 Marquette
• Ford Center
• Loose-Wiles
• Mpls School District Building
• Block E
• TCF (proposed bank
building renovation)
• Gavidae I and Gavidae II
• RBC Plaza
BOMA
TRENDS – URBAN VS. SUBURBAN
Is Urban all that?
• Urban Assets are simply performing better
Nationally – CBD assets (A&B) trade at a premium of almost 50 bps
Nationally – CBD vacancy (A&B) is almost 200 bps lower than suburban
• Trends – Not all urban, but all have important characteristics
West End bullish about office there due to location and amenities
• Access to transit and amenities remain a huge and critical draw
Transit corridors will have favor
Sell the Suburbs?
• Corporate campuses may be bucking that trend
• United Health / Target North Campus / TCF
• Suburban office will feel the most rate pressure
BOMA
TRENDS – URBAN VS. SUBURBAN
BOMA
TRENDS IN THE LABOR MARKET
The Labor Market
• Think of a future issue with skilled
labor and a time where there are
more jobs available than there are
applicants.
Office Space Consolidation
• Is office space consolidation nearing an end?
• Landlords are starting to consider parking ratios and impact on
building systems when building density reaches certain levels
BOMA
WHAT INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS SAY ABOUT THE
TWIN CITIES OFFICE MARKET
• Returns for Mpls CBD 7 caps on inplace
with some upside
• 394 Corridor is great
• North Loop is folding into CBD
• Prefer assets near transit, especially LRT
• Historically rents not too much more than in 90s. Difference is
return expectations have changed. Deals that were 10 caps have
acceptable returns at 8 caps.
• Plenty of Capital for new deals. I see that trend continuing.
• Prefer Urban CBD
BOMA
WHERE ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES?
• Corporate BTS – can understand the
deal/credit, have good and ample
financing choices
• Like the 394 corridor
• I like Urban rehabs, favoring the Mpls CBD. I would not discount
other locations though (Uptown, NE Mpls, St. Paul). (But do not
expect rent premiums – lots of space will need to get filled)
• Plenty of opportunity/back to fundamentals.
BOMA
HISTORICAL TWIN CITIES OFFICE NEW CONSTRUCTION
BOMA
225 178 158
954
332
523
0 0 19 0 38
2200
1750
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
Squa
re F
eet
(in T
housa
nds)
HISTORICAL TWIN CITIES OFFICE NEW CONSTRUCTION
BOMA
225 178 158
954
332
523
0 0 19 0 38
2200
1750
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
Squa
re F
eet
(in T
housa
nds)
Moderator Russ Nelson
NTH
Suburban Dave Marschinke
CBRE Inc.
Minneapolis CBD Sonja Dusil
Cushman Wakefield | Northmarq
Development Tony Barranco Ryan Companies