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CEEH workshopFebruary 2008
The importance of demographic changes
Henrik Brønnum-Hansen
University of Southern Denmark
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 2
University of Southern Denmark
CEEH objectives
• to study the future production of energy in Denmark and consequences of different scenarios with respect to environmental and human health aspects, and
• to optimize the type of energy production and consumption with respect to environmental and health economics
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 3
University of Southern Denmark
What we don’t know
How climate might change in the future
How technology to prevent air pollution will improve in the future
Future demands for energy
and a lot of other future developments…
How future traffic infrastructure change
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 4
University of Southern Denmark
What do we assume?
No climate change in the future (?)
No technology improvements as regards prevention of air pollution (?)
No change in traffic infrastructure (?)
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 5
University of Southern Denmark
What do we know?
the health damaging effect (e.g. respiratoryand cardiovascular diseases) of selected pollutants (from toxicology and epidemiological studies)
emission dynamics from power plants
demographic changes(growing proportion of older people)
Quite a lot about
the strong associated between age and health
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 6
University of Southern Denmark
Health is strong associated with age and the age distribution will change dramatically in the future
Why not include somethingthat we do know?
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 7
University of Southern Denmark
• the circulatory system and• chronic obstructive lung disease
Prevalence and mortalityfrom diseases of
by age
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 8
University of Southern Denmark
0
4
8
12
16
30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Age
Pe
rce
nt
Prevalence of diseases of the circulatory system among Danes in 2005
Men Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 9
University of Southern Denmark
0
3
6
9
30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+
Age
Pe
rce
nt
Prevalence of chronic obstructive lung disease among Danes in 2005
Men Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 10
University of Southern Denmark
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74
Age
Dea
th r
ate
per
100
000
Mortality from diseases of the circulatory system in Denmark in 1999
Men Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 11
University of Southern Denmark
0
100
200
300
400
30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74
Age
Dea
th r
ate
per
100
000
Mortality from chronic obstructive lung disease in Denmark in 1999
Men Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 12
University of Southern DenmarkHealth effects - analytical frame
Climatic conditions
Air pollution
Energy sources
Other factors- Sex- Age- Genetics- Life style- Living conditions
Health status- Morbidity- Mortality
Health care
Resources
Industry
Society
- Infra structure
- Social conditions
- Demography
- Etc.
Population
Traffic
- Environment
Demography
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 13
University of Southern Denmark
Population forecasting fromStatistics Denmark
Population pyramids
Demography
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 14
University of Southern Denmark
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2007
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
Age intervalsNumber of persons Number of persons
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 15
University of Southern Denmark
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2008
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 16
University of Southern Denmark
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2009
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 17
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2010
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 18
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2011
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 19
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2012
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 20
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2013
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 21
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2014
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 22
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2015
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 23
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2016
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 24
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2017
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 25
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2018
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 26
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2019
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 27
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2020
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 28
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2021
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 29
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2022
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 30
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2023
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 31
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2024
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 32
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2025
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 33
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2026
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 34
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2027
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 35
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2028
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 36
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2029
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 37
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2030
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 38
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2031
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 39
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2032
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 40
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2033
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 41
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2034
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 42
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2035
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 43
University of Southern Denmark
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2036
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 44
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2037
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 45
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2038
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 46
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2039
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 47
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2040
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 48
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2041
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 49
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2042
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 50
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2043
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 51
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2044
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 52
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2045
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 53
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2046
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 54
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2047
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 55
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2048
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 56
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2049
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 57
University of Southern Denmark
Change in age distributionPopulation pyramids
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2050
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 58
University of Southern Denmark
Healthy
Diseased
Impaired
Functionallimitations
Reducedparticipation
Exposure
Age
DeadLife course and health
Cumulative effect
The ing Process
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 59
University of Southern Denmark
exposure
Age
Less
Healthy
Dead
Diseased
Impaired
Functionallimitations
Reducedparticipation
Dead
Diseased
Impaired
Functionallimitations
Reducedparticipation
The ing Process
Life course and health
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 60
University of Southern Denmark
Experience fromthe epidemiology of
tobacco smoking
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 61
University of Southern Denmark
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35Time/Age
Dea
th r
ate
3t1
Lead time: increasing risk
t
t3 - t1
t - t4 2
t2
Lag time: reduction of excess risk
t4
6 - t = t 5
t5 t6
Never smoker
Heavy smoker
Ex smoker
Tobacco smokingTime, dose and effect
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 62
University of Southern Denmark
Ageing society anda reduced exposure to air pollution scenario
Demographyand air pollution
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 63
University of Southern Denmark
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2000
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Mænd
2000
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Kvinder
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2000
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
Unexposed Exposed
and exposure reductionAgeing society
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 64
University of Southern Denmark
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2010
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
Unexposed Exposed
Ageing society and exposure reduction
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 65
University of Southern Denmark
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2020
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
Unexposed Exposed
Ageing society and exposure reduction
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 66
University of Southern Denmark
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2030
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
Unexposed Exposed
Ageing society and exposure reduction
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 67
University of Southern Denmark
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2040
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
Unexposed Exposed
Ageing society and exposure reduction
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 68
University of Southern Denmark
-450000 -350000 -250000 -150000 -50000
Men
2050
0 100000 200000 300000 400000
0-9
10-19
20-29
30-39
40-49
50-59
60-69
70-79
80-89
90-99
100 + Women
Unexposed Exposed
Ageing society and exposure reduction
2000
The importance of demographic changes
February 2008. Henrik Brønnum-Hansen 69
University of Southern Denmark
