Cenários e Horizon Scanning em processos de apoio à decisão€¦ · 4. Description: brief presentation and description of the topic/driver of change 5. Keywords: significant words

António Alvarenga António Alvarenga

Cenários e Horizon Scanning em processos de apoio à decisão

______________________________________

António Alvarenga

Seminários do CEG - IST

10 de Fevereiro de 2014



Índice

1. PROSPECTIVA E SCANNING: CONCEITOS DE BASE

2. HORIZON [ENVIRONMENTAL] SCANNING

3. CENÁRIOS

4. LONG-TERM FUTURE OF THE PORTUGUESE ECONOMY - A SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS


1. PROSPECTIVA E SCANNING: CONCEITOS DE BASE


1. FORESIGHT & SCANNING: CONCEITOS DE BASE


Strategic Issue

Management Horizon

Scanning

Prospetiva Futures

Studies

Foresight

Futures Cenários

Competitive

Intelligence

Previsão

(Forecasting)

António Alvarenga

A RAND Corporation –

Cientistas Políticos e o

“Think Tank” da “Guerra

Fria”

Herman Kahn – “wishful thinking” vs.

“expectativas razoáveis”

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

A Escola das Probabilidades Mofificadas e a sua base de Modelação

Alv

aren

ga

, 2

01

0

A Escola Lógico-intuititiva / Wack, Schwartz, Heijden - Royal Dutch/Shell e GBN

Prospectiva Tecnológica

A Escola Francesa: "La Prospective"

O CAMPO DA PROSPECTIVA – UMA ABORDAGEM GENEALÓGICA

António Alvarenga António Alvarenga Tempo

Cenário 2

Cenário n

Cenário 3

Cenário 1

?

Não podemos

prever o Futuro

Temos que

pensar sobre

Futuros alternativos

Temos os nossos

pressupostos

sobre o Futuro


“The Long View” Visão Global

& Holística

“Visão Periférica”

360º

Múltiplas

Perspectivas Triangulação

Olhar

“de fora para dentro” Visão Sistémica

Estrutura/Morfologia

do Futuro Jogo dos Actores

Criatividade

“Out-of-the Box”

PRINCÍPIOS DA

PROSPECTIVA


Foco Estratégico Horizonte Temporal Tendências

Wildcards Incertezas

Weak Signals

(Sinais Fracos)

Tendências Pesadas

(Megatrends)

Visões

“Intents” Cenários

Estruturas, Sistemas

e Heurísticas

CONCEITOS DA

PROSPECTIVA


2. HORIZON [ENVIRONMENTAL] SCANNING


Horizon Scanning

Um processo sistemático de identificação, categorização e seleção de informação

alertando para potenciais mudanças de paradigma, disrupções, incertezas e

temas emergentes, os quais possam ser úteis para diferentes tipos de objetivos,

aplicações e utilizadores e/ou decisores, encorajando-os a antecipar e

compreender melhor o ambiente externo e a forma como o mesmo interage e

influencia as respetivas políticas e decisões estratégicas.


The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon Scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends. Overall, It is intended to improve the robustness of strategies, policies and evidence base.

____________________________________

The act of gathering new insights that may point us towards affirming or discrediting existing trends and developments as well as identify new and emerging trends and developments which are on the margins of our current thinking, but which will impact on our lives in the future.

Adapted from:

DEFRA – Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Horizon Scanning Program, UK, 2002.


ESTRATÉGIAS

MUDANÇA

Forças de Mudança, Tendências, Weak Signals, Wild Cards

+ - x % Extrapolar, Avaliar Impactos

Cenário 1 Cenário 2

Cenário 3

Cenário 4

Cenário n

VISÃO Objetivos, Valores

Construída de forma dinâmica, interactiva, gerindo contradições e paradoxos, …

O Scanning é uma fase de levantamento e análise de informação, essencial para as atividades subsequentes de Foresight e Estratégia.

Adaptado de Wendy Schultz (2006)


Horizon Scanning PRINCIPAIS APLICAÇÕES

• Monitorização de Tópicos/Questões Críticas (Issues Monitoring)

• Competitor profiling/intelligence

• (Strategic) Early warning / reporte de emerging issues

• Benchmarking

• Análise de oportunidades e riscos para novos produtos/serviços/sectores de actividade e/ou regiões/países

• Monitorização e Prospectiva Tecnológica

• Informação crítica sobre fusões e aquisições

• Análise de posicionamento no mercado

• Fomento da criatividade e procura de ideias inovadoras

• Aprendizagem Organizacional , Conversação Estratégica e Agilidade Estratégica

• Fomento de redes de conhecimento

Adaptado e alterado a partir de Michaeli 2005, "Competitive Intelligence", Springer Verlag Heidelberg


WILDCARD!!

Tempo

Número de casos; Nível de perceção pública

Local; Poucos Casos; Questões Emergentes

Global; Múltiplos casos dispersos; Tendências e Megatendências

Cientistas, artistas; radicais;

Jornais e websites especializados

Revistas, websites e documentários ”mainstream”

Jornais, revistas de notícias

Instituições Públicas; Governos

Mapeando a difusão de tendências ao nível da percepção pública desde o seu ponto inicial enquanto ”emerging issue of change”.

Fonte: Adaptado de Graham Molitor (1977) por Wendy Schultz (2008).

Scanning: “Issue Life-Cycle”


Core Team”

Internal Scanners Level 1

Internal Scanners Level 2

Other

Scanning

Projects

External

Scanners


Fo

nte

: Z

_punkt

Th

e F

ore

sig

ht

Com

pany,

Z-t

renddata

base

http://www.z-punkt.de/index.html


Ferramentas de ajuda à “Organização”:

• Software BD (2D):

– Shaping Tomorrow

– Arlington Institute’s LISA & DIANE

• Software BD (3D):

– PersonalBrain

– ThinkMaps

Fonte: Schultz (2008)


DPP Scanning Database


Example of a Scanning Template

1. Category: classification according to type of driver of change: megatrend, trend, uncertainty, weak signal or wild card

2. Date: document elaboration date

3. Theme: classification according to DPP HS Project Taxonomy

4. Description: brief presentation and description of the topic/driver of change

5. Keywords: significant words capable of describing the topic/driver of change

6. Indicators: warning signs that may indicate that the driver of change is growing/declining/stopping

7. Impacts: brief description of impacts, intensity, areas and points of impact. (Intensity assessed according to scale: very high, high, medium, low, very low)

8. Degree of Exposure: assess to what extent and in which way is the system (context/external environment) prepared for the impact of the driver of change

9. Drivers and Inhibitors: any factors which may act either in the direction of acceleration / increase in the likelihood of occurrence / development of the driver of change (driver) or towards a slowing / reversal / decrease in the likelihood of occurrence / cessation of the driver of change (inhibitor)

10.Main Actors/Stakeholders: Identification and brief description of the actors/stakeholders that set the present and may influence the future evolution of the driver of change identified

11.Time Frame: when is it more plausible that the event / development occurs. Period of time elapsed until the different impacts (Section 7) are felt (immediately, up to 1 year, 1 to 5 years, 5 to 9 years, 10 to 19 years, more than 20 years)

12.Likelihood: subjective evaluation of the probability of emergence / development / cessation of driver of change (scale: very high, high, medium, low, very low)

13.Sources: identification and classification of the sources with date of publication and, if possible, the relevant internet link. Fonts are classified according to the following typology: (1) fringe, (2) mainstream or (3) expert


3. CENÁRIOS


Tempo

Cenário 2

Cenário n

Cenário 3

Cenário 1

?

Não podemos

prever o Futuro

Temos que

pensar sobre

Futuros alternativos

Temos os nossos

pressupostos

sobre o Futuro


Cenários Planeamento por Cenários - Scenario Planning

Scenario Development Scenario Building Scenario Thinking


A INCERTEZA como matéria-prima


“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposed ideas in the mind, at the same time, and still retain the ability to function.”

(F. Scott Fitzgerald )


Scenarios are narratives of alternative environments in which today’s decisions may be played out. They are not predictions. Nor are they strategies. Instead they are more like hypotheses of different futures specifically designed to highlight the risks and opportunities involved in specific strategic issues.

Ogilvy, J. and Schwartz, P. (2004). Plotting Your Scenarios. Global Business Network.


CENÁRIOS NÃO SÃO PREVISÕES

Cenários… não são previsões mas formas de “iluminar” futuros possíveis. Cenários ...são conhecimento provisório.

Ted Fuller, 2001, trad. Alvarenga


Natureza Hipotética Narrativas; Histórias (Shell, Schwartz, Heijden, GBN) Descrição de Futuros Alternativos Causalidade; “Imagens finais vs. Encaminhamento” (Kahn, Godet, Schoemaker, Jantsch, Miles)

Consistência, Coerência Interna e Plausibilidade (Godet, Wack, Porter, Schoemaker, Fahey e Randal)

“Reperceiving the Future”; Perceções; Confrontar & Mudar Modelos Mentais (Wack, Schwartz, Heijden, de Geus, GBN)

Tomada (e Processo) de Decisão (Kahn, Schwartz, Heijden, Shell, Schoemaker, Masini)


Cenários: Arto Kaunonen

“Ferramentas para organizar as perceções sobre ambientes

futuros alternativos nos quais as decisões se podem vir a tomar”

Arto Kaunonen (2001)


Visão: WG3 - COST A22

“Imagem de futuros desejáveis que inspiram as pessoas para a ação. Uma Visão também pode incluir descrições dos desenvolvimentos para os futuros desejáveis. O papel das Visões é a promoção da mudança através da focalização em agentes potenciais de mudança e/ou da mobilização de recursos.”

(2005, trad. Alvarenga)

CENÁRIOS ≠ VISÕES


PRINCIPAIS “ESCOLAS” E MÉTODOS DE CENÁRIOS

• A Escola Lógico-intuitiva

• Os Cenários Industriais de Michael Porter

• A Escola das Probabilistic Modified Trends

• La Prospective


SCENARIO PLANNING - OBJETIVOS E APLICAÇÕES

• “Exploração” e “Avaliação” de Desafios, Riscos e Oportunidades

• Estímulo e suporte a Processos de Inovação envolvendo vários parceiros – “ensaiar futuros provocantes”

• Formulação e Implementação de Decisões Estratégicas mais Criativas e mais Robustas

• Definição de uma Direção Estratégica (decidir sobre um assunto estratégico específico; definição de uma Agenda Estratégica de alto nível)

• Teste da Estratégia atual ou Visão

• Catalizar a ação. Questionar o status quo.

• Co-criação de um Modelo Mental do Futuro – Visão partilhada e alinhamento crescente sobre um Futuro Desejado ou uma Direção Estratégica (Visioning)

• Criação de uma Plataforma que possibilite a Conversação Estratégica

• Aceleração da Aprendizagem Organizacional (aprendizagem colaborativa)

• Future-orientation: pensar de forma profunda, sistémica e sistemática; lidar melhor com a mudança


Diversidade de Utilizadores/Usos

Planeamento Estratégico Militar (Origem)

Comunidade empresarial

Comunidade Ambientalista

Sector público:

• Autarquias e outras entidades territoriais de amplitude local e regional

• Agências e organismos permanentes

• Agências e organismos temporários (vd. programas nacionais de Prospectiva Tecnológica)

Sociedade civil

Cooperação interorganizacional

Reguladores

Instituições de investigação científica Fonte: Fuller, 2001


Sectorial

Regional / Territorial

Empresarial

Nacional

Tecnológica

Múltiplas Áreas de Aplicação

Scenario Planning


4. Long-term Future of the Portuguese Economy

a Scenario Building Process


• Intro • The workshops and their inputs • The written Scenarios


» Work developed by DPP within the scope of Project “HybCO2: Hybrid approaches

to evaluate the economic, environmental and technological impact of long-term low

carbon scenarios – the Portuguese case”, co-financed by the “Fundação para a

Ciência e Tecnologia” (FCT).

» The project started in 2010 and was developed together with “Faculdade de

Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa” (FCT-UNL) and “Instituto

Superior de Economia e Gestão” (ISEG).

» HyBCO2 general goals: assessment of the implications of long-term carbon

reduction Scenarios through the development and comparison of two hybrid tools.

» Taking the Portuguese economy until 2050 as a case study, two hybrid tools are

being developed: the HYBGED model and the HYBTEP platform. Based on

Scenarios that explore possible socio-economic paths for Portugal up to 2050, the

two hybrid tools will be used to assess the cost effectiveness of the possibilities of

greenhouse gas emissions (GHG emissions) reduction and its effects on prices,

production and family income as well as on economic well-being.

» More information about the HybCO2 project on its official website:

http://hybco2.cense.fct.unl.pt/.

http://hybco2.cense.fct.unl.pt/



Long-term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy Roadmap



António Alvarenga

Workshop

Global Scenarios 2050

KEY UNCERTAINTIES AND POSSIBLE SCENARIO STRUCTURES


Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop


→ Context-specific approach

→ Project, methodology (and even tool) design


Methods and Tools: more flexible, intuitive and lighter

Foresight • Scenario Planning/Thinking (intuitive-logics: SHELL, GBN, SRI, etc; Porter) • Trend Analysis • Environmental Scanning • Futures Wheels • Futures Accelerator© • Visions Competition© • Incasting • Future Workshops (future conferences)

Actors • Stakeholder Analysis • Strategic Groups (workshop version; adaptation) • Role Plays

Innovation and Creativity • Strategic Deep Dives (IDEO) • Mind Mapping • Brainstorming • Brainwriting • Focus Groups •Storytelling

Competitive Intelligence • Competitive Blindspots • War Games • Competitive Benchmarking & Tactical Analysis • Early Warning (Weak signals) Management Systems • Benchmarking Studies

Methods and Tools: more analitical and heavier

• Scenario Planning (La Prospective, Mathematic/Probabilistic Modeling) • Delphi • Structural Analysis (MICMAC) • Analysis of the “Actors’ Game” (MACTOR) • Morphological Analysis (MORPHOL) • Smic-Prob-Expert / Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) • Trend Impact Analysis (TIA) • Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) • Patent Analysis

Strategy and Management

• SWOT analysis • Balanced Scorecard • Core Competencies • Activity System • Business Idea • 5 Forces • Strategic Groups • Value-chain • End Game Analysis • Key Strategic Factors / Internal Factors of Competitiveness

• Gap Analysis • Wind Tunneling • Implications and options • Finantial Analysis • Strategic Conversation • Strategic Choice Structuring • Real Options • Enterprise Value Map • Strat Bridge

• Ideas Combat© • Innovators Solution • Six Hats (de Bono) • Po (de Bono) • Mobility Vip Cards • Idea Boxes • Random Word

Alvarenga, Carvalho, 2009


A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY I

Workshop methodology: an

adaptation (of a section) of the

intuitive-logics scenario-building

approach


The future will result from the interaction

between Megatrends coming from the

past and shaping the future, Weak

Signals or issues at an embrionary stage

of development, Wildcards that might

surprise us in a positive or negative way,

and Structural Uncertainties that might

take us not just for one but for a plurality

of possible futures.


Strategic Focus Time horizon Trends

Wildcards Uncertainties /

Key Uncertainties

Weak Signals Megatrends

Visions /

“Intents” Scenarios

Structures, systems

and heuristics

KEY CONCEPTS



Ana Maria Fernandes

António de Melo Pires

Guta Moura Guedes

Helena Cordeiro

João Caraça

José Emílio Amaral Gomes

José Maria Brandão de Brito

Luís Campos e Cunha

Luís Nazaré

Manuela Proença

Miguel Duarte Pereira

Miguel Monjardino

Natalino Martins

Nuno Ribeiro da Silva

Pedro Moreira

Roberto Carneiro

Stephan Magnus

Vítor Bento

Ângela Lobo

António Manzoni

Jorge Marrão João Ferrão

Júlia Seixas Manuel Mira Godinho

Maria da Luz Correia Miguel St Aubyn

Patrícia Fortes


Choosing Key Uncertainties


14 Key Uncertainties


Emergence of a New Technology Paradigm Incremental Disruptive

Religion Conflict Coexistence

Globalization “Mega-countries” “Flat”

Rule(s) Setting New Paradigm; “Merge" Western Ideas

Four Global Critical Uncertainties selected by the Participants in the “Global Scenarios 2050 Workshop”


Scenario

Structures


3 Scenario Matrixes

(12 potential Scenarios – initial exploration)



Workshops

Long-term socio-economic Scenarios for Portugal


Scenarios for Portugal 2050 Workshop


Timeline


The final version of the Timeline already benefiting from the reactions and suggestions of the workshop attendees, was also published under the form of DPP Insights with the title “Timeline: A Economia Portuguesa no Contexto Global” (Alvarenga & Rogado, 2011). Both the compilation and a first version of the Timeline played a core role in the preparation and implementation of the “Scenarios for Portugal 2050” workshops and of the contents analysed.

António Alvarenga

What might define the future?

What will remain?

Structural limitations?

What can project Portugal?


Strategic Focus Time horizon Trends

Wildcards Uncertainties /

Key Uncertainties

Weak Signals Megatrends

Visions /

“Intents” Scenarios

Structures, systems

and heuristics

KEY CONCEPTS


10 Uncertainties

(in depth scanning2 » “inputs

for discussion”)

António Alvarenga

PORTUGAL 2050

INCERTEZAS POTENCIAIS

1

Evolução do Perfil de

Especialização da Economia

Portuguesa

(Padrão de Actividades

Exportadoras)

2

Posição e Função de

Portugal no Sistema

Internacional de Transportes

e Logística

4

Conectividade

(Física e Digital)

de Portugal na

Economia Global

10

Evolução dos Sistemas de

Ensino e Formação em

Portugal

(Qualidade, eficiência, eficácia,

…)

9

Intensidade, Impactos

e Gestão do(s)

Envelhecimento(s) da

População em Portugal

(Ligação com Sistemas de

Pensões e de Saúde)

8

Tipologia e Papel das

Cidades

no Desenvolvimento do País

7

Evolução do Modelo de

Coesão Social Português

(Mercado Trabalho; Ensino e

Formação; Protecção Social;

Saúde)

5

Padrão de Urbanização

e Organização do Território

3

Preferências e Apostas ao

nível dos Relacionamentos

Geoeconómicos por parte

dos Poderes Públicos e

Investidores Portugueses

6

Evolução das Soluções/

Plataformas Energéticas e

de Mobilidade


10 Uncertainties

(co-built » shared)


Working with Uncertainties and

Configurations

António Alvarenga

PORTUGAL 2050

POTENTIAL UNCERTAINTIES

(Workshop 2)

1 Evolution of the Structure and

Specialisation of the Portuguese

Economy

• Exporting activities and internationalisation

• Position in the value chains of goods and

services traded internationally

• Insertion in the international division of

labour.

2 Financial Sustainability of the

Portuguese Economy

• External imbalances

• National debt + private debt

• Ability and promptness in solving financial

imbalances

4 Institutional Capacity Building of

the Portuguese Economy and

Society

• Evolution and credibility of the institutions

• Social capital

10 Evolution of the Education and

Training Systems in Portugal

• Human capital

• Quality and efficiency of the systems

• Connection and harmony with the labour

market

• Training throughout life

9 Generational Uncertainty - how is

the next generation going to live?

• Generational conflicts

• Generational cohesion and solidarity

8 Typology and Role of the Cities in

Spatial Planning

• Territorial cohesion

• Dynamics of urbanisation

• Networks of cities

7 Evolution of the Portuguese social

cohesion model

• Redistributive mechanisms

• Labour market

• Education and Training

• Social protection

• Health

5 Cultural Values and Ability to

Generate Social Capital

• Cultural changes

• Confidence

• Individual benefit vs. collective benefit

• Capacity of innovation and societal change

3 Political System Model

• Evolution of democracy

• Attractiveness of other solutions

6 Strategic Leadership and Pro-

activity of the Economic Agents

• Political System

• Alignment and mobilisation of the players

• Strategic vision and quality of governance


Focus on high added value products

Focus on the industry and in sectors of undifferentiated products with low profit margins

Dualist Model – Mix of the two previous models

Evolution of the Structure and

Specialisation of the Portuguese Economy

1

Deterioration of the external accounts and of the budget imbalances - “THE HOLE”

Improvement of the financial and economic governance – “FÉNIX”

Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”

Financial Sustainability of

Portugal 2


Decentralised, participatory and open Democracy (including new forms of representation)

Autocratic, probably centralised and/or devolved

Centralised democracy, the State configuration with a tendency to be a provider

Political System Model and State

Configuration 3

Institutional renewal; efficacy and efficiency

Institutional degradation

Institutional Capacity Building of the

Portuguese Economy and Society

4


Perpetuation of the current cultural values and social capital (Business-as-Usual); low confidence levels in the civil society

Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital (endogenously created); a more entrepreneurial society

Capacity for reversing the current situation by creating social capital, imposed from abroad; less profound change than the previous configuration; adaptive evolution

Cultural Values and Ability to Generate

Social Capital 5

Absence of vision and quality in managing the public interest, keeping the erratic nature of governance – “THE SPANISH INN”

Technical quality in managing the public interest, stability trust – “SUNNY ROAD”

Strategic Leadership and Pro-activity of

the Economic Agents 6


Adaptive evolution regarding the European standard

Social model that can become reinforced

Rupture of the current cohesion model; fragmentation (for instance: working in Portugal with labour contracts subject to another country’s jurisdiction)

Evolution of the Portuguese Social Cohesion Model

7

Urbanisation reinforcement with the increase of conflicts within the city

Urbanisation reinforcement with the city as a virtuous model but disaggregated from the rest of the territory

Stabilisation of the urban dimension with an urban-rural partnership

Typology and Role of the Cities in Spatial

Planning 8


Coexistence – two parallel worlds, two different generations with no interaction

Conflicts due to values, practices and dependence relations; generational conflict

Cohesion – intercultural differences as a source of new practices and knowledge

Generational Uncertainty (how

the next generation is going to live)

9

Increase in the quality and importance of the production and transmission of knowledge

Reduction in the quality and importance of the production and transmission of knowledge

Evolution of the Education and

Training Systems in Portugal

10


The next task was based, in methodological terms, on

Morphological Analysis.

» Critical Uncertainties and their Configurations » building of

the Base Structures of “Portugal Scenarios 2050”.

A table with the Critical Uncertainties and defined

Configurations was distributed and the participants, organised

in working groups, were asked to select combinations of

configurations of the Critical Uncertainties in order to obtain

two distinct Scenario Structures


A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY II

an adaptation of the

Morphological Analysis logic to

an workshop/participatory

context.


Portugal 13 Points – SUF+ Portugal 18 Points – Very Good


Focus on industry and on sectors of

undifferentiated products with low

margins

Dualist Model – Mix of the two

previous models Focus on high added value products



margins


previous models

Deterioration of external accounts

and of budget imbalances - “THE

HOLE”

Improvement of financial and economic

governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”



HOLE”

Improvement of financial and

economic governance – “FÉNIX” Business-as-Usual – “BAIN MARIE”

Decentralised, participatory and

open Democracy (including new

forms of representation)

Autocratic, probably centralised and/or

decentralised

Centralised democracy, the State

configuration with a tendency to be a

provider

Decentralised, participatory and open

Democracy (including new forms of

representation)

Autocratic, probably centralised

and/or decentralised



provider

Institutional renewal; efficacy and

efficiency Institutional degradation



Perpetuation of the current cultural

values and social capital (Business-

as-Usual); low confidence levels in

the civil society

Capacity for reversing the current

situation by creating social capital

(endogenously created); a more

entrepreneurial society


situation by creating social capital,

imposed abroad; less profound

change than the previous

configuration; adaptive evolution


values and social capital (Business-as-

Usual); low confidence levels in the

civil society










Absence of vision and quality in

managing the public interest,

keeping the erratic nature of

governance – “THE SPANISH INN”

Technical quality in managing the

public interest, stability trust – “SUNNY

ROAD”


managing the public interest, keeping

the erratic nature of governance –

“THE SPANISH INN”


public interest, stability trust –

“SUNNY ROAD”

Adaptive evolution regarding the

European standard

Social model that can become

reinforced

Rupture of the current cohesion

model; fragmentation (for instance:

working in Portugal with labour

contracts subject to another country’s

jurisdiction)


European standard


reinforced





jurisdiction)

Urbanisation reinforcement with the

increase of conflicts within the city


city as a virtuous model but

disaggregated from the rest of the

territory

Stabilisation of the urban dimension

with an urban-rural partnership






territory



Coexistence – two parallel worlds,

two different generations with no

interaction

Conflicts due to values, practices and

dependence relations; generational

conflict

Cohesion – intercultural differences

as a source of new practices and

knowledge



interaction



conflict



knowledge

Increase in the quality and

importance of the production and

transmission of knowledge

Reduction in the quality and










Decline Affirmation




margins





margins


previous models



HOLE”





HOLE”





representation)





provider



representation)





provider








civil society













civil society
















“SUNNY ROAD”







“SUNNY ROAD”


European standard


reinforced




contracts subject to another

country’s jurisdiction)


European standard


reinforced











territory








territory





interaction



conflict



knowledge



interaction



conflict



knowledge














Portugal “Camilo Alves” Portugal “Vintage”




margins





margins


previous models



HOLE”





HOLE”










provider








provider








civil society













civil society
















“SUNNY ROAD”







“SUNNY ROAD”


European standard


reinforced







European standard


reinforced











territory








territory





interaction



conflict



knowledge



interaction



conflict



knowledge














Renewal within Continuity Global Portugal




margins





margins


previous models



HOLE”





HOLE”





representation)





provider



representation)





provider








civil society













civil society
















“SUNNY ROAD”







“SUNNY ROAD”


European standard


reinforced





jurisdiction)


European standard


reinforced





jurisdiction)






territory








territory



Coexistence – two parallel worlds, two

different generations with no

interaction



conflict

Cohesion – intercultural differences as

a source of new practices and

knowledge

Coexistence – two parallel worlds, two

different generations with no

interaction



conflict

Cohesion – intercultural differences as

a source of new practices and

knowledge

Increase in the quality and importance

of the production and transmission of

knowledge




Increase in the quality and importance

of the production and transmission of

knowledge







Two Long-Term Scenarios for the

Portuguese Economy


A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY III

Scenario methodological note: a

more inductive systematization


A NOTE ON METHODOLOGY IV

C1: “Welcome”

C1 – Summary

C1 – Global Framework (GF_A)

C1 – Introduction: Structural Steps in the Functioning and

Positioning of the Portuguese Economy

C1 – Evolution of the Specialization Profile

C1 – Strategic Leadership, Institutional Capacity Building and

Social Capital

C1 – Scientific Potential and Education and Training Systems

C1 – Spatial Planning and Role of the Cities

C1 – Physical and Digital Connectivity

C1 – Energy and Environment


Scenario no. 1

“Welcome”


In spite of the major structural forces limiting the international positioning of the Portuguese economy still hindering the success of the attempts for achieving transformation, Portugal manages to position itself at an international level as a Tourism/welcoming country, based on its “classic” comparative advantages and with the capacity for organising its territory as a whole, reclaiming buildings and planning the cities. Several and recurring economic problems occur but our collective capacity to manage the short term and find answers ends up succeeding, step-by-step, in rebalancing the situations. The combination of the gains in urban planning with the dynamics of cultural and creative industries constitutes an important and complementary contribution in the logic of the “innovative welcoming” in the same way as activities associated with active aging, including the development of market niches related to the health/pharmaceutical industry.


Competition

• Resources/ • Regulation/Rules •

Markets/Regional Influence/Models

• Socio-economic References

Demography

(Geo)economy

Environment/ Sustainability

Technology

• Rise of Large Eastern Economies, with particular impact of the Chinese Economy

• Oligopolistic world

• …

• Increase in the world population

• Aging of the population in the developed countries

• …

• Pressure on water resources

• Increasing need for Energy

• …

• Different approaches to technological Innovation

• …

•Resources/ •Regulation/Rules • Markets/Regional Influence/Models

• Socio-economic References Global Framework of the “Welcome” Scenario


“Welcome” - Synthesis

Portugal was able to implement important changes to improve the functioning and positioning of its economy (containment of the chronic external deficit and ability to plan and organize its territory);

Portugal wasn’t able to successfully bring about some needed structural changes (concerning internal imbalances endemic in nature and the way by which its economy integrated itself in the globalisation process, with the virtuous exception of tourism);

Expectations created with the balancing of public accounts defrauded by Portugal’s inability, in adverse international environment, to become more attractive and central;

Some ability for the generation of "endogenous" skills;

Inability to attract FDI capable of leveraging change in the production profile;

Structural reforms begun, but slow to implement in a context of major budget tightening;

Constant monitoring by financial markets;

Portugal reveals the capacity for short-term response in very difficult situations, but is never able to do the same for long term;

Economic course of action characterized by proximity and quick return investment in activities and sectors where Portugal has comparative advantages with poorly skilled yet specialized labour;

Exception being the promotion of the health cluster in niche markets, driven by tourism to accommodate the elderly population of developed countries, more demanding in health care.


City and Short Breaks

To improve accessibility to Lisbon / Porto

To improve the tourist experience, particularly in Porto by structuring thematic itineraries, diversifying entertainment events

Integrated Resorts and Residential Tourism

Growing in quality To promote the creation of resorts

with associated offers (e.g. golf courses and Spas)

To highlight tourism management systems focused on resorts

Golf

To consolidate the strong international projection as a golf destination

To build more high quality golf courses (by famous architects) and with a diversified offer

To ensure annual golf tournaments with high international projection

To stimulate golf practice in Portugal

Nautical Tourism

To invest in the docking conditions and in the building of ports and harbours, marinas and recreational ports in the priority areas.

In the cruises segment, to improve the conditions of the terminals and to create new routes

Cultural and Landscape Touring

To create thematic routes To enrich the experience in the main

places of attraction To ensure the adoption of quality

standards along the whole value chain

Gastronomy and Wines

To take advantage of the conditions and natural / cultural resources (Douro, Alentejo and Central Portugal)

To structure the product To stimulate the sale of Appellation

of Origin products (wines and cheeses)

Food Tasting Offer

Sun and Sea Segment

Re-qualify the product with priority to Algarve

To invest in complementary activities which strengthen the value proposal for the tourist

Nature Tourism

To improve the infrastructures To improve road signs and the paths

through nature To develop the offer, ensuring the

preservation of the protected areas

Business Tourism

To consolidate the offer for large congresses in Lisbon and to develop it in Algarve

To develop the small meetings segment in Lisbon, Porto, Algarve and Madeira

Health and Well-being

To develop distinctive offers in Azores and Madeira

To transform the Spa industry in Porto, and in the North and Centre of the country

To develop well-being equipment and services in Hotels

Medical Tourism

“Welcome” Scenario – Tourism Segments and Benefiting Sectors


Logistics and Transportation

Geographical reference systems Ports Mobility

Cultural and Creative Industries

Educative and leisure software Media and entertainment Design Architecture Advertising

Support Services

Certification Waste management Environmental management and

valorisation Engineering CIT Training Marketing Organising events

Building and Real Estate

Rehabilitation of real estate Requalification of public areas Energy and Environmental

Certification

Distribution and Trade

Supermarkets Shopping centres Luxury goods

Food Industry

Vegetable and speciality agriculture Biological products Gourmet products Fishing and aquaculture Wine tasting Gastronomy competitions and fairs

Equipment Goods

Leisure equipment Sports equipment Hotel and Restaurant equipment

Security and Defence

Monitoring of the coastal areas and of the exclusive economic area

Internal Security (public and private) Information services

Health and Community Care

Telemedicine Community care Hospitals and Private Clinics Pharmaceutical products related to

aging

(continued from previous slide)


Scenario no. 2

“We cannot fail”


A set of endogenous developments (changes) within the functioning of the Portuguese economy and society, combine with some global external driving forces to turn the three decades subsequent to 2011 unique in growth dynamics, increase in competitive capacity and sectorial, institutional and societal reorganisation of our country. In this scenario, there is a reindustrialisation of the Portuguese economy together with the development of new activities, namely in high-technology domains (bio, cogno, nano…) and services of intensive knowledge. Portugal stands out in the fields of clean energies, sustainable mobility and new intelligent materials.


Competition

Resources Skills

Savings

Demography

(Geo)economy

Environment/ Sustainability

Technology

• Rising of large economies

• Changing to a multi-polar world

• …

• Increase of the world population

• Aging of the population in the developed countries

• …

• Pressure over water resources

• Increasing needs of energy

• Increasing importance of the ecology and environmental issues

• …

• Speeding up of change and technologic convergence

• Ubiquitous intelligence

• Market convergence • …

•Resources/ •Regulation/Rules • Markets/Regional Influence/Models

• Socio-economic References Global Framework of the “We cannot fail” Scenario


“We cannot fail” - Synthesis

Portugal performs a number of structural changes in the functioning and positioning of its economy;

Macroeconomic and microeconomic policies simultaneously stimulate innovation, creativity and technological improvement moving the economy up in the value chain;

Containment of labour costs for companies so that the jobs needed to absorb a still abundant poorly skilled yet specialised workforce could be kept;

Ability to use "endogenous" resources and skills to attract strategic FDI;

Ability to work both the short term and the long term;

Awareness that short term investment wouldn’t be enough to design and build a sufficiently competitive and innovative economy 20 or 30 years into the future;

Ability to initiate and develop a number of projects designed to attract to Portugal high value added, knowledge-intensive activities;

Ability to tune in and synchronize with the more dynamic and innovative clusters and regions of the world economy (Europe, USA and Asia), bearing in mind the pro-active and selective manner in which Portugal, without forgetting its history, culture and natural integration into the European, Iberian and Portuguese speaking countries, positioned itself among these different regions and actors.


Unexplored combination: in

a tense and unstable world,

with the “western world” going

through a difficult transition,

the external “levers” for the

transformations underlying C2

are, in most part, absent.

C2: “We cannot fail”: in a

growing and highly competitive

world, Portugal manages to

(re)position itself in the new

technological and innovation

waves that feed a global,

integrated and very dynamic

economy.

Unexplored combination:

possible scenario but less

ambitious than C2 (our option

was, in this case, to “exalt”, for

clarity purposes, the built

Scenarios)

C1: “Welcome”: in a world

going through a difficult and

unstable transition which

tended to reinforce the

peripheral nature of Portugal,

our country focused with

success on its comparative

traditional advantages:

“amenities”/natural resources,

cheap labour /”circumstantial”

access to the markets.

GF_B: Highly competitive globalisation; economic growth with effective ability for global

coordination and action

GF_A: Unstable world in a troubled transition; reactive, with protectionist tendencies

and an increase of the national and macro-regional specificities (political, economic and so on)

C2: “We cannot fail”

C1: “Welcome”

Long-term Socio-economic Scenarios for Portugal and their relation/compatibility with the Global Framework (GF)


Quantification » not forecasts, but only possible evolution patterns of the variables. » The scenario period was divided into two periods with distinct characteristics: - 2011-2020, a closer time horizon in which, although the degree of uncertainty is very high, the historic trends still have considerable weight. Therefore, a reflection with some detail about the sectorial evolutions is possible. - 2021-2050, a much more distant period, in which the prospect of the variables’ evolution is related mainly with the perception of their relationship with the main trends and “structural characteristics” of each Scenario.


Quantification » The following variables were quantified :

• Resident Population;

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at market prices;

• Households Private Consumption over the territory;

• Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices, by sector, using a sectorial disaggregation specifically defined for the project.






Long-term Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy Roadmap


Macroeconomic Scenarios

for Portugal - 2050


International GDP Scenarios

(a) Source: World GDP: FMI (2013a e 2013b); UE GDP: Eurostat (2013)

Average annual rates of change in volume (%)

Estimate (a) Low Scenario High Scenario

2001-12 2013-16 2017-20 2021-50 2013-16 2017-20 2021-50

UE 1,3% 0,7% 1,2% 1,0% 1,3% 2,0% 2,0%

World 3,6% 3,3% 3,5% 2,7% 4,1% 4,5% 3,7%


Estimate

levels(a)

Average annual rates of change in volume

Estimate Low Scenario High scenario

2012 2001-12 2013-16 2017-20 2021-50 2013-16 2017-20 2021-50

GDP (market

prices) 165,2 0,2% -0,4% 1,0% 1,0% 0,6% 2,9% 3,0%

Private

consumption of

residents

99,6 0,3% -1,0% 0,9% 1,0% 0,1% 2,7% 3,0%

Consumption of

residents outside

the territory

2,1 -1,5% 0,2% 0,9% 1,0% 1,4% 2,7% 3,0%

Consumption of

non-residents on

the territory

7,8 1,1% 3,9% 2,8% 2,1% 5,5% 3,8% 2,9%

Private

consumption of the

families in the

territory

105,4 0,4% -0,7% 1,0% 1,1% 0,5% 2,8% 3,0%

Resident

population (annual

average)

10 515 0,2% -0,3% -0,2% -0,4% -0,3% -0,1% 0,1%

GDP per capita 15,7 0,0% -0,1% 1,2% 1,4% 0,9% 2,9% 2,9%

Scenarios for Portugal

Source: INE (2013) (a) Values at current prices (billions of euros for GDP and consumption; thousand euros for GDP per capita); Population: thousands of people.


www.cenariosportugal.com

Seixas, J, Fortes, P., Rodrigues, S. e Alvarenga, A.:

"From socio-economic scenarios to alternative

energy and carbon pathways" (aceite para

publicação), Technological Forecasting and Social

Change - International Journal.


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